Too Greedy <G6> PM Thoth

[Thoth]

Night 1 results

Yanqush is the most greedy of the bunch with $99,899. He will leave with nothing.

mathcam $99,000
Fishbulb $98,760
shadyforce $97,400
Saigon $94,444
tehgood $94,350
Kerplunk $79,000
Yanqush $00,000

Cops role a 7.

$437,046 left

Deadline Night 2: Thursday 03:00 AM EST (GMT -5)

[mathcam]

Pfft. Not even close. My mafia could character could have bought one of these and still been in the lead. Sheesh.

Cam

[Thoth]

Deadline in less than 24 hours. Still missing choices. Players that do not send in an amount are considered to have left with their current stash.

[Thoth]

Night 2 results:

Shadyforce wanted too much with his $47,900. He will leave with half of his $97,400.
Cops role a 19.

$47,000 - $146,000 - mathcam
$45,670 - $144,430 - Fishbulb
$45,556 - $140,000 - Saigon
$44,874 - $139,224 - tehgood
$39,981 - $118,981 - Kerplunk

$00,000 - $48,700 - Shadyforce
$00,000 - $00,000 - Yanqush

$213,965 left

Looks like we're in for an interesting endgame

Deadline Night 3: Monday 03:00 AM EST (GMT -5)

[mathcam]

Indeed. Well, there's a good chance I won't be in a position to gloat after next round, so I better get it out of the way now:

Ouch, Fishbulb. If you have just asked for $3,000 more, you could've gotten away with it and taken the lead. That's gotta hurt. Again, I'm always available if you need a loan.

Cam

[Fishbulb]

Ouch, Fishbulb. If you have just asked for $3,000 more, you could've gotten away with it and taken the lead.

You mean $2,000, right? What kind of math do you teach?

[Saigon]

Hmmm, $213 965 left for the third round... makes it hard to know how much to ask for... It seems like the people who understands best how others will think will leave with a lot more than the rest this round.

[MeMe]

I'm taking

at least

$50k.

[Fishbulb]

Well, you might want to up it to $100k or so, since you severely behind, MeMe.

[MeMe]

It's called

embezzling

, Fish. Just because you didn't notice, doesn't mean my pockets aren't full.

[mathcam]

You mean $2,000, right? What kind of math do you teach?

Huh? You got $45,670, and Shadyforce asked for $48,700. If you had asked for $3,000 more (namely, 48,670), you still would have been less than Shadyforce and you would have taken the lead. Or am I missing something?

Cam

[Thoth]

Night 3 results:

tehgood made a desperate move to win the game asking for $49,669. He will leave with half of his $139,224. Fishbulb decided to take his current amount and bet on the cops as he did not send in a choice.
Cops role a 20.

$28,400 - $174,400 - mathcam
$28,000 - $168,000 - Saigon
$29,981 - $148,962 - Kerplunk

$00,000 - $144,430 - Fishbulb
$00,000 - $69,612 - tehgood
$00,000 - $48,700 - Shadyforce
$00,000 - $00,000 - Yanqush

Still

$127,584 left

Deadline Night 4: Thursday 03:00 AM EST (GMT -5)

[Fishbulb]

You mean $2,000, right? What kind of math do you teach?

Huh? You got $45,670, and Shadyforce asked for $48,700.

No, Shady asked for $47,900. Look at the the top line.

Sorry for missing, Thoth. Not a good week for me.

[Thoth]

No problem, Fishbulb. It still gave you a 15% chance to win the game right away.

[Fishbulb]

True, and it's not over yet, so I still have a chance as long as the cops hit soon.

[mathcam]

Oh....Shady

got

$0.00 and

left

with $48,700. I had it the other way around. I still mock you.

Cam

[mathcam]

This is a pretty sweet ending. The narrow lead would be cool enough, but the cops and Kerplunk sure make this tough.

Cam

[Thoth]

Get those choices in people. Only 24 hours until the deadline.

[Thoth]

Night 4 results:

SAIGON WINS

mathcam finally went over the top here by requesting the huge amount of $25,000. He will leave with half of his $174,400. Kerplunk decided to take his current amount and bet on the cops as he did not send in a choice.
Cops role a 10.

$10,000 - $178,000 - Saigon

$00,000 - $148,962 - Kerplunk
$00,000 - $144,430 - Fishbulb
$00,000 - $87,200 - mathcam
$00,000 - $69,612 - tehgood
$00,000 - $48,700 - Shadyforce
$00,000 - $00,000 - Yanqush

Still

$117,584 left

. Saigon could try for another night and take it all, but as he has already won without it I'll assume he won't risk another cop roll.

Anyone willing to run another round?

[Saigon]

Hehehe

[mathcam]

Yeah, kerplunk was the big "if" factor. I think I have pretty good odds on Saigon by himself, but I know that Kerplunk has to take $26,000 to take the lead, in which case Saigon could take anything less than that and be safe. This is risky for Kerplunk, because he's taking the probable highest amount and will be kicked out, but leaving is also risky. There's almost no chance of him winning by leaving...a 1 in 5 chance the cops will come, ro that Saigon and I tie with our bids. I thought he'd go for the gusto with a $26,000 or so bid, and so I thought I had a decent shot at my $25,000 being safe.

Cam

[Saigon]

I understand you had a tactic Mathcam, but you forgot to think about my tactic. All through the game I took a little less than what I thought I could get away with, so that I was pretty sure that I could come to the end-phase of the game. Last round even more so. I took an exceptional low amount so I could be sure that I would survive the round. Because I figured that Mathcam was the only one I had to look out for, I imaginded a few scenarios:

1. Everyone sends in their choices and decide to keep playing. Then one of us would get eliminated and there would be two left for the next round. I had to make sure I wouldn't be the one eliminated so I chose a low number, just enough to get a higher amount than Mathcam incase he left. I figured that the possibility of the cops coming was still reasonably low. Then next round, if Mathcam and I were the two left, I would ask for nothing and hope the cops would come (that was my only possibility). And if you think about it, it's more likely that the cops will come on day 5 or earlier than day 6 or later.

2. One would choose 0 or not send in their choice. Then I concluded that I would win anyway if I asked for a low amount since I wouldn't be the one of the two left that asked for the highest. Like I stated I chose a number high enough so that I would win even if Mathcam left.

3. Both Mathcam and Kerplunk left. I think that would mean that I would win, but I'm not exactly sure about the rules on that one. Anyway I figured that possibility was fairly low so I didn't bother to think about it. Anyway the only real possibility I could win if I left today was if the cops came today, and I didn't think they would.

so, there you have it. I was actually quite confident that I would win this round

[mathcam]

just enough to get a higher amount than Mathcam incase he left.

This is exactly why

I

felt confident. I

know

you have to take at least $6401 to pull ahead (otherwise, you risk me leaving), which means that I'm almost absolutely guaranteed of being able to nab $6,400. So (according to logic...you might not have done this), you'd have to actually take 12801 to be sure to be ahead. But this is fine with me...you're still going to be kicked out. UNLESS Kerplunk tries to catch up in one round. I thought he would, so I bet high. I guessed wrong.

Not that you didn't have decent chances, but there's no way you could be in better position than me going in to that last round, so I think you're confidence was misplaced. We're symmetric with respect to voting possibilities, and I have an extra $6400 to boot.

Cam

[Saigon]

I didn't say I was sure I would win, just... confident

Actually if you read my post, the higher than $6400 part was just in case you left with what you had. If you chose to take some money today (which you did) I only wanted to be sure to come to the next round, no matter if you had $20000 or $30000 more than me.

[mathcam]

Actually if you read my post, the higher than $6400 part was just in case you left with what you had.

Yeah, I saw this. I even mentioned this is in my post: I knew you had to take at least $6,400 or else you'd risk losing if I just decided to leave (because you have no idea whether I'm going to stay or not).

Cam