Newbie 955 - Game over

[MrSandman]

Valkyrie (1) sailorpallas
MrSandman (3) Hoopla, RayFrost, kingcod
sailorpallas (2) LobsterCatapult, AdumbroDeus
AdumbroDeus (1) Adaham
kingcod (1) MrSandman
(No vote) Valkyrie
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

Alright, here's how I'm seeing everything so far with five pages to work with.


Adaham: 15 posts, medium content.

Comes off town to me. Genuinely contributes and I agree with his thoughts on LobsterCatapult being fishy and AdumbroDeus having a very shifty Valk vote. I like how he targets everybody.


AdumbroDeus: 12 posts, low content.

I think this is the first time I am posting in regard to AdumbroDeus. Long overdue. Upon looking specifically at his posts, he comes off quite scummy. Does the exact same thing I got dinged for and voted Valk for lurking despite sailorpallas also yet to post. Only thing is, he posted with a serious tone. Whole dealeo about lynching weak players and lurkers is bizarre and really doesn't make sense. Guys trying to seem low profile but I see smoke here.


Hoopla(IE): 17 posts, medium content.

Starter of the MrSandman bandwagon. I think it was perfectly valid. You come off as the aggressive type(state you like people close to lynch) and it's a good way to get information for the town early on. However this recent statement:

Everyone else; we're getting to the point where we've got enough data to work with tomorrow and we should be wrapping up Day 1 before this game evaporates and goes stale. After Valkyrie and Sandman have placed a vote, we can view the collective suspicions of everyone and come to an agreement on someone.

makes my scumdar go off. Not only is the town in a bad position right now,(two players not posting anything of value) we still have 2 weeks to come up something better than we have now. Yes the game is running slow and all but we only have 5 pages of information riddled with double posts and offtopic nonsense. With only 7 actively posting, if Sailor and Valk are both town and remain irrelevant it would take all 5 remaining townies to lynch scum.

Hitting day one is slim but still, I want to at least have a chance. I'll vote but I am definitely not in favor of lynching someone with the town down 2 and 2 weeks left until the deadline.

Is there a chance your just being the IC trying to get things moving/ frustrated and want progress? Sure. That's why you're not one of my top suspects. I get a slight scum read on you but there are bigger fish to fry.


Kingcod(SE): 7 posts, low-medium content.

I get a scum read on Kingcod becuase he was third on the MrSandman wagon with the absolute worst reason, not sharing Valk's PM to me. Tries his best to come off protown but it looks like active lurking to me. Which I think is far more dangerous than just not posting. Backed off on the whole tunneling thing when I inquired and yes, the FoS did look very OMGUS.

In response to your questions:

@Sandman - are you not voting because you are scum?

Not at all, I've just been cautious with my vote. Waiting until I have a conclusive target.

Who should be topping the vote list if not you?

You or AdumbroDeus.


LobsterCatapult 19 posts, low-medium content.

Not sure on this guy. Playing newbie style and that's fine but seems all over the place. I agree with her on some things but the long posts when questioned or suspected looks bad. Could just be a total newbie trying to help the town, scum or all an act. Neutral(We are only at five pages after all) but if you put a gun to my head, I would lean ever so slightly to defensive scum.


RayFrost(SE) 11 posts, low-medium content.

Second on the MrSandman bandwagon. Vote spawned from talk over the Valkyrie vote. Didn't think it was justified but other than that I get a town vibe from RayFrost. Asks relevant questions, makes remarks and attempts to scum hunt. Agree with the weirdness of the Hoopla Valkyrie town read. Neutral read leaning lightly town.


Sailorpallas 5 posts, very low content.

Why isn't this dude replaced yet? He hasn't posted in 6 days.

I don't believe any "tunneling" went on during that whole jumping on him thing went down. Putting votes or asking questions is a way to get someone to start posting and was warranted with flawed reasoning being displayed. Very light scum read for jumping on the Valkyrie wagon for absolutely no reason. Should be replaced asap.


Valkyrie 6 posts, very very very low content.

Post! You have said you are suspicious of Sailorpallas and AdumbroDeus but only mentioned each once. Which is it and why? I get a slight scum read on you becuase you got very defensive when called out about not contributing and lied by saying you have added content.

In conclusion, I will

Vote Kingcod

becuase of above and the dude deserves at least one vote. Obviously I would also be in favor of a AdumbroDeus lynch also. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch anyone at least until Valk finally contributes something and Sailorpallas gets replaced.

[RayFrost]

Suspects:

everybody, but mostly sandman / valkyrie / kingcod

people I'd be willing to lynch:

Nobody. I don't have enough info to work with.

people I'd be willing to lynch if deadline were now:

everybody.

[kingcod]

Suspects: sandman, hoopla, valkyrie

Lynch candidates - more inter-play needed, particularly with the 2 semi-dormant players

I get a scum read on Kingcod becuase he was third on the MrSandman wagon with the absolute worst reason, not sharing Valk's PM to me.

That wasn't my reason, sorry if it wasn't clear to you -
I said "Not Liking Sandman's recent posts" - which was to concur with Hoopla's initial reason.

Did you in fact say you wouldn't share the PM?

@Sandman - are you not voting because you are scum?

Not at all, I've just been cautious with my vote. Waiting until I have a conclusive target.

But you could have voted on me last Thursday then couldn't you? That was when I posted the content you are now using for a 'conclusive target'? You seem to have waited until you were prompted to vote by Hoopla, rather than appear suspicious.

In conclusion, I will Vote Kingcod becuase of above

and the dude deserves at least one vote.

I don't know what to make of this. Scum might join a bandwagon, but scum might also want to spread the votes as wide as possible to create confusion. Any ideas?

[LobsterCatapult]

ugh, im torn, my gut still feels like SP could be scum...and i feel like the longer it goes by that SP doesnt post, the more potential for scum he is, but, as you guys have stated, he could just be a lingering townie who got spooked from the pressure, or IRL stuff came up. I dont know the replacement protocol, but it may be a good idea if he doesnt post soon. i know that lynching inactives arent the best thing to happen to town...so ill

unvote

for now, hopefully he will get replaced soon or post.

im not really feeling sandman's vote on kingcod, but it could be possible, king cod is scum of course. however, i dont really get the whole scum vibe from you. i also dont really like how early in the game, his motives for voting for valk, shifted and unvoted easily. this has been debated hotly, but i can see why he has the votes on him that he does. and i also didnt like how he accused SP of defending me with him assuming i typoed, i mean, it didnt really make sense.

valkyrie hasn't really given me reason to think she is scum, but she hasnt given me a good read based on how she doesnt post much, however, it could be a case like SP.

hoopla comes across as town from me, though the presumptuous asking of opinions and votes seems more aggressive than scum.

kingcod, i didnt like the blanket questions for town, but i dont see this as scummy behavior, its prolly more of a preference. i dont think kingcod comes across as scummy enough to really place a vote one, but i suppose there is a slight scumminess. more so than hoopla, adaham.

adaham, is a very aggressive player, and though i obvously dont agree with his suspecions on me, i can see him hunting scum well, and i dont think he is scum.

adumbrodeus: he has gone away for the time being, and his points are rather....bizarre, i dont agree with him on some points, and is sort of scummy. i think his putting players into catagories generally doesn't help find scum in my opinion because they overlap so much. he could be trying to throw us off track. i think he comes across as sort of scummy as well. i agree with sandman's posts and the more i look at it, the more i can see how he may have tried to latch onto my vote for SP just to throw off town.

vote:adumbrodeus

there is more to my opinions for my vote and other people, esp since i didnt address ray frost, but this post took longer than i thought, and work calls!! ill continue my post later on tonight or tomorrow, but for right now, im content with my vote change.

[AdumbroDeus]

Ehhh, yeah, sort of forgot about this game for a bit, doesn't help that it's moving very slowly so there's little development.




Regardless, I disagree.

The fact that the three categories interlap is exactly the REASON why I have no problem lynching weak and/or inactive players, because good scum won't be showing up as playing weak.



Honestly, with basically nobody posting, there's very little in the way of concrete scumtells, which means little to scumhunt with.




How am I trying to be low profile btw sandman? I was attempting to be very aggressive... and this lacks the activity that I'm used to.

[Korejora]

redtail896 replaces sailorpallas.

[redtail896]

Alright everybody, I'm ready to roll. I've read the last 5.5 pages, and I'm going to tell you my thoughts about everybody in alphabetical order. (Sorry for the wall of text; consider this my making up for missing the last few days)

Adaham

: I'll be honest, I've been looking hard for reasons to think that Adaham was scum. The post that first set off my sensors was this one (emphasis mine):

Both your questions sound like more fishing to me. Question Nr.1 is right out pointless, as nobody has been really disrespectful to the mod (unless I´ve missed something). You are the one that took respect/disrespect to the mod as a reason to place a vote.

Meager reason for a vote = scumtell (in my book).

On top of that, you admit to actually waiting for a bandwagon to form and immediately jump onto it - also scummy.

Your reason to jump on the Mr.Sandman wagon is also pretty weak. Your ironic phantasy about the PM between Valkyrie and Sandman is slightly amusing, but little more than that. Considering we´re out of the joking stage, that means that you have voted once more for a weak reason.

Only reason for your question Nr. 2 that I can think of, is that you are trying to figure out who has the most credit amongst the village and join that persons cause - sums up to me as fishing, bandwagoning and another instance of potential buddying up. You´re not improving your position right there...

While I agree generally that a meager reason for a vote is suspicious, I also contend that there are few good reasons to vote that early on the first day. It's too early (well, it

was

too early at that point) for it to be a scumtell. In addition, waiting to see a bandwagon get rolling isn't necessarily suspicious; bandwagons are a good early source of information, both about the bandwagonee and the bandwagoners. So it's not crazy to wait for a bandwagon before committing to something. Also, I have no problem with asking general questions of the group, although that might just be differing playstyles.

But, that post aside, I haven't seen too much scummy play from Adaham. He's been jumping on everybody and generally refusing to commit to a bandwagon. It's pretty clear to me that he's just a generally suspicious player. Verdict: Leaning Town

AdumbroDeus

: Moderately suspicious in my mind. His early posts didn't have a whole lot of content, and then there was that whole "kill weak players" thing. I'm suspicious of that viewpoint from the getgo; if I'm voting for somebody, it's because I think they're mafia. Besides, we have enough running around now that we should be able to make some educated guesses. And on top of that, he jumped on the sailorpallas bandwagon (that wagon rubs me the wrong way). Verdict: Leaning Mafia

Hoopla

: So, I'll divide Hoopla's play so far into two stages:
Stage 1: The early game, in which she jumped on MrSandman, starting the first bandwagon (which still exists btw; MrSandman has 3 votes).
Stage 2: The current stage, in which she has been more lurkish.

In stage 1, I'm suspicious of her Sandman vote. The logic seems unfocused, emphasizing MrSandman's vote of Valk, and then claiming that his reply was backpedaling. It seems too much like she is

looking

for scummy behavior instead of analyzing the actual situation. Meanwhile, in stage 2, she contributes little to the general discussion, except for an objection to AdumbroDeus's "weak players" statement (this objection is sound in my mind), a listing of her general suspcions (with little to no explanation), and an encouragement to move the game along quickly (we still have more than two weeks; we don't need to rush yet).

My estimate of the general opinion of Hoopla is this: Determined scumhunter (as evidence by her MrSandman attack), currently lying low and trying to figure stuff out, generally solid townie. But I see an illogical early game bandwagon, a player content to sit back and watch the chaos happen, and an attempt to hurry us towards a decision. Verdict: Leaning Mafia

kingcod

: He did seem a bit eager for a bandwagon, and was quick to jump onto the MrSandman bandwagon (which I don't really understand anyway) with little in the way of substantive reasoning. Reading through his log, I haven't been remotely convinced by any of his votes or his FOS. He seems to be looking to jump onto other people's ideas. I concede that he could be legitimately looking for more substantive reasoning than exists, but overall he gives me an uneasy feeling. Verdict: Leaning Mafia

LobsterCatapult

: Nothing particularly scummy stands out here. In fact, just the opposite; I like her long response to Adaham, and both of her votes seem logical and grounded to me. Verdict: Leaning Town

MrSandman

: The current vote leader, which made me take a particular look at him. To be honest though, I'm having a hard time understanding where the bandwagon came from (part of the reason I'm suspicious of Hoopla). The vote on Valkyrie made as much sense as any other vote did at the time. He also contested the "kill weak players" argument, and I generally agree with his grand summary post of opinions. What's more, I'm clearly suspicious of the majority of people currently voting for him. Verdict: Leaning Town

RayFrost

: Not a lot to go on here. He seems rather reticent, preferring to sit back and watch as opposed to jump headlong into the fray. Both of his votes are built on remarkably weak reasoning; the first against Lobster for a starting vote, and the second for MrSandman for a simple upset/not upset contradiction. Neither is particularly convincing. But overall, I don't have a great case here. Verdict: Slightly Leaning Mafia

sailorpallas

: Well, considering I replaced sailorpallas, there's not a whole lot to say here. But I do want to note that, while I'm sympathetic to the anti-sailorpallas faction, I interpreted it as simple newbie syndrome, not a cleverly hiding scumbag.

Valkyrie

: Basically nothing to go on here. Not posting, and even when she does post, it has little substance. So I have no reason to go either way here. Verdict: ?

So, I have 3 people leaning mafia, 1 slightly leaning, and 3 that I think are pretty safe town (well, as safe as we can be at this stage) (oh, and one ?). After rereading my logic, I end up with this...

Vote: Hoopla

[AdumbroDeus]

*sigh*


Perhaps you guys have never played a game where a weak player chose to distract from scumhunting with tons of WIFORM logic, or scum very effectively hid as a newbie, well I've lost more then a few games as town for both reasons (hell, I even have one where I did the former before I realized I was being an idiot, still end up costing us the game).


I'll say right now, I come from an environment that's far less tolerant of that kind of play, if you can't effectively scumhunt, you get lynched and fast. If you lurk, you get lynched faster. We may lynch a few townies in the process, but we make sure that scum can't hide like that and do a very good job of forcing them out of their holes.


Heck, our scumhunting in one day produces more then it seems like all the games do in a week. Without the threat of being lynched, regardless of if you're dumb or scum, what's the incentive to actually respond, therebye producing the info?



So, that's where I'm coming from, and quite frankly I'm gaining a major distaste for the slow pace of games here, and the seeming distaste for lynching dead weight.

[Adaham]

Hi guys, just letting you know I´m still around. I´m a bit occupied these days and have a bit less time to play. As soon as I will find the time I´ll adress a couple of points and make a LoS myself. Maybe I can manage later tonight.

Very happy Sailor has been replaced, we gained a good player, that´s for sure!

[MrSandman]

Welcome redtail896. Thanks for replacing. If we get Valkyrie to start posting we may have something going here.

I get a scum read on Kingcod becuase he was third on the MrSandman wagon with the absolute worst reason, not sharing Valk's PM to me.

That wasn't my reason, sorry if it wasn't clear to you -
I said "Not Liking Sandman's recent posts" - which was to concur with Hoopla's initial reason.

Concurring with Hoopla's initial reason which was me "attacking" a lurker. So basically you just jumped on the bandwagon becuase you thought this post...

Vote Valkyrie

You ever going to show up and post bro?

was a legitimate scum tell. Notice how it was on page 1? Notice the

bro

? Both signs point to it being a light hearted vote. Hoopla even admits it's just a "weak scumtell" in her 4th post. Yet you have still have no problem jumping on the bandwagon. Strange how AdumbroDeus does the exact same thing here on page 3...

Fair enough Hoopla, just seeing what comes out.


On to my next person:

Unvote

Vote: Valkyrie

No activity yet at all, really?



Any particular reason you guys chose me? I'd like to here your reasoning for focusing on me as a bandwagon choice.

and you fail to even mention it!

Did you in fact say you wouldn't share the PM?

No I didn't.

@Sandman - are you not voting because you are scum?

Not at all, I've just been cautious with my vote. Waiting until I have a conclusive target.

But you could have voted on me last Thursday then couldn't you? That was when I posted the content you are now using for a 'conclusive target'? You seem to have waited until you were prompted to vote by Hoopla, rather than appear suspicious.

In conclusion, I will Vote Kingcod becuase of above

and the dude deserves at least one vote.

I don't know what to make of this. Scum might join a bandwagon, but scum might also want to spread the votes as wide as possible to create confusion. Any ideas?

Tell me this Kingcod, when and where can I vote and not have it look scummy to you? I vote, you say it's a scumtell. I don't vote, you say it's a scumtell. I vote after Hoopla alpha's up and finally sparks so meaningful discussion, it's a scumtell. If I choose to join a bandwagon(Which you did) it's a scumtell. If I "spread the votes"(Which I call voting for who I think is scum) it's a scumtell.

Just take the damn vote guy and don't get so defensive. "scum might also want to spread the votes as wide as possible to create confusion. Any ideas?" My idea? BS. Confusion? No, you are just not very happy I voted for you.

[Adaham]

Okay, I´ll start for now and see how far I´ll get...

At first, a couple of things have been pointed out in my behaviour. I´m gonna pick up the example where I´m connecting willingly kingcod to AdumbroDeus by the incriminating wording "if I were kingcod and innocent". This comes from my understanding of how day 1 can be used to it´s best. Obviously there´s no nightly results and voting history yet, so all accusations are based on WIFOM (in- or excluding scumtells). As some others have pointed out correctly, in the beginning the most obvious newbie gets the attention and when a bandwagon forms, the bandwagonees are the next target, which leads usually to more interesting discussions than the original bandwagon targets.

Another thing others have noticed is that I am trying to look into everybody and that is indeed true. On day 1 I want to get as early as possible an overview on everybody and that is best achieved by applying pressure. But if the pressure is to be felt, I cannot announce at the same time that I am just pressurizing to get some reactions.

So while my incriminating scenario connecting AdumbroDeus and kingcod is definitely very WIFOM for now, it was also a reminder to kingcod that I haven´t forgotten him (and I stick to that), as well as getting potential reactions from both of them.

I´m sorry I don´t have time now for a full LoS, so I´m just going to say that my three main suspects are Hoopla, kingcod and AdumbroDeus (no order yet), with RayFrost looking in from the inside. Sandmans LoS (as well as the one of Redtail) looks very good and makes me think both are innocent. Lobster has dealt in a rather honest way with the pressure I applied and is indeed probably innocent. That leaves Valkyrie as the only question mark.

Short bits on my suspects:

@ AdumbroDeus - You´re saying you´re used to a higher speed, but I don´t see you really scumhunting a lot, only talking about it and defending your approach and yourself. Except for Valkyrie every player has posted something with meat on it, yet the only thing that ever came from you was dedicated to one of the lurkers.

- Hoopla: Redtail describes very nicely the two stages in Hooplas play. As of late she is behaving almost more like a mod (maybe also due to IC status) instead of somebody playing the game. Giving smart advice on what should happen without commiting herself a bit. Besides that, the whole thing about time running out is indeed quite far fetched, discussion is just getting juicy and some tendencies are becoming obvious. No need to think about the deadline just yet, this seems more as if Hoopla is trying to choose one of the current popular targets (Adumbro, kingcod, Sandman or a lurker) before attention blows her way.

- kingcod: I hope what I wrote above also partially answers some of the things you said to me. As a matter of fact, I currently have kingcod probably ranked behind those other two, but he´s far from being off my list. I need to maybe go back and reread him, as we´ve had a bit of discussion and my memory is playing tricks on me.

Valkyrie´s next post has to be a bit substantial, otherwise my scumdar will ping-ping seriously...

Gotta sleep now, next two days will be very busy, but I´ll read anyways on my phone, and will do my best to post.

[AdumbroDeus]

I think it should be obvious why I resorted to primarily defending my approach... because literally everyone's dogpiling on it, leaves me in a very poor position to actually... do any scumhunting because it just gets read as OMGUS as pretty much everyone is suspicious of me, unless it's a really strong case...


And nobody made that big of a slip yet.


Now, if you guys took it as value neutral "difference of opinions", maybe slightly scummy, I'd have something to work with, but I know this position.


Heck, I'm halfway willing to let myself flip just to show you how idiotic you all are to make assumptions based on standard mode of play when somebody's playing their first game here.


But, I'm sure that will happen naturally soon enough.



But there is one person that's been wheedling on me ever since (and if it's just because you're looking at this more neutrally, I apologize, but this doesn't sit right with me):



@kingcod


Why are you attempting to buddy with me when it's obvious you disagree with my position on this? You're a semi-expirienced player here, you should know the modus operendi around here, and if everyone else thinks it's a lynchable offense around here, you certainly should be looking to lynch based on it. But here you are, buddying up with me on it, why? Is it that you expect me to be the first lynch, so when I flip, you get to say, "I defended him" and use it to avoid lynches in the late game.

unvote
Vote: kingcod

Similarly, Ray's lack of commentary on this doesn't sit well for similar reasons, though he doesn't seem to be attempting to actively buddy.

[RayFrost]

Well, I can say why I haven't commented on your position.

I don't find it to be relevant to actual scumhunting. Your willingness to lynch 'weak' players as stated is based off of your

ideas

about who scum are

in general

. It doesn't pertain to your alignment

in this game

, making it unimportant.

My general lack of high activity is due in part by my not having replaced. For some reason, replacing puts more fire in my gut.

The other bit is I haven't read through the entire thread in a single go, meaning my thoughts are disconnected.

I'll kinda maybe possibly read through the thread and make a Wall of Text (WoT for short) from my observations, but no guarantees.

Anyway, adaham, what do you mean by 'rayfrost is looking in from the inside' in your list of suspects?

oh, and my votes early on were 2. bandwagon pressure vote yay and 1. oi, explain this vote.

[LobsterCatapult]

@rayfrost, i have looked over your posts, and they are very concise, and to the point for most of them, without much elaboration. though what you say has clear logic and to the point, you dont post too much content-wise except in short snippets. and almost expect that to be ok. id like to hear from you a bit more in depth, though you've posted a bit, yours are sometimes the shortest posts. espcially the one pointing out sandman's quick unvote of valk due to a broad question from hoopla. and i do agree, ive replaced some mafias, and imo, sometimes its a bit easier to get into the game, once a few days and nks have already been underway, but stil, itd be nice to see a bit more.

@hoopla-looking back on hoopla, though your spurring of this was rather helpful, it was rather presumptuous, and this goes along with what i dont particularly liked about king cod's question. though you havent rung scum for me quite yet, this could be fishing to extract any town power we have...and i cant say it isnt somewhat scummy, even though you did spur this on, i agree you are coming off as a bit moddish, seemingly above us, though maybe not on purpose because youre IC and i may have interpretted it in a way you did not mean.

@redtail, im glad you have replaced, its nice to see a fresh face, through your posts, you come across a straight shooter, i still havent made up my mind however. but i do disagree with you somewhat in regards to sandman, some of sandman's things have come across suspect, and at first i disagreed and decided to read back through it, but now i can see where you are coming from.

i am surprised he still has this many votes, kingcod and adumbro, to me seem to ring a bit more scummy...even though they are at each others necks @_@. kingcod has said some things that have rubbed me the wrong way, and that i havent understood, but sandman has had some odd voting behaviors in the beginning, but htat could be because he got jumped on and didn't defend himself in the most solid way. im on the fence about sandman but i understand where you are coming from with a new point of view. i think that sandman recently has come up with some solid defense, and retorts.

@valk...still waiting...

@adumbro, i understand that you may have some different background, but these games are bit slower paced, you seem to be aggressive, but also you seem to be demeaning the game itself. i mean, its day one, days are 3 weeks long, if its a bit slowly paced, then i understand why, ive watched games that days are 2 days long, and the pace is obviously faster with more propensity to lynch people who may be inactive after day 1 because its a faster game, and there are more people, its easier to lurk if its a game of 21 than 9 and might be easier to get called out. here, if i want to go out of town for a day or two, i wont get replaced if i say so. i think your overall attitude is "what can i expect of these people thru scumhunting, rather than, what do these people expect of me thru scumhunting" you want us to show you the money, and you seem to be like, omg, you dont like my lurker lynch, yall dont get me.

also, i have some long work shifts ahead of me, and some court stuff to figure out, i may not be on to post much in the next 2 days. i will try to address any questions, or comments to me by saturday night. however if i miss lynch, i am sorry.

[AdumbroDeus]

=

i am surprised he still has this many votes, kingcod and adumbro, to me seem to ring a bit more scummy...even though they are at each others necks

We're not "at each others necks", he's "trying to hug me" and "I smell blood in the water" is a more apt metaphor, there is nothing that really associates us beyond his attempted buddying.


I found him extremely suspicious for buddying with me, even though he CLEARLY disagrees with my line of thought.

When you have buddying, you rarely have two scum, it's pretty much always a scum and a town, especially since I can see no discernible reasoning for buddying here beyond being able to say "I told you so" when I flip as town.





I'm not gonna respond to any comments about opinions on my scum analysis till kingcod responds.

[Hoopla]

CALM DOWN MY NEWBIES, HELPFULNESS ISN'T A SCUMTELL!

Also, I understand the paranoia about ending the day too quickly. I too was raised on the maxim of 'never rushing the day', but using time just for the sake of using time IS A DAMAGING LONG-TERM MENTALITY to fall into. It drops off awareness, dwindles interest in the game, and makes data harder to analyse the next day. I have had much more success in scumhunting after a short 100-150 post day, than chatting and circular arguments for 300 posts.

Day 1 will always be close to random, barring a significant slip, but even then, townies have the potential to do so too. The best chance of catching scum is using confirmed information and confirmed alignments. We don't get those until Day 2, and most players won't sift through a 15 page thread dedicated to Day 1 to analyse this information. Less is more. Seriously.

It isn't scummy to want a quicker, sharper game. If anything, we have a better chance of winning the game this way, because pressure of the noose is heightened in a speedier town, which in turn creates information. Trust me, you don't want the game of mafia to turn into a typing contest, because it sucks the life out of the game, and demotivates players to pay proper attention to the game.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

[redtail896]

CALM DOWN MY NEWBIES, HELPFULNESS ISN'T A SCUMTELL!

I agree, it's not a scumtell. But I think the problem is that you're not really doing much else, and certainly little in the way of scumhunting. I'd actually like to see your WoT post describing all of your suspicions; as of right now, I don't know where you stand on anybody (with the exception of MrSandman, who I assume you're still suspicious of).

Also, I understand the paranoia about ending the day too quickly. I too was raised on the maxim of 'never rushing the day', but using time just for the sake of using time IS A DAMAGING LONG-TERM MENTALITY to fall into. It drops off awareness, dwindles interest in the game, and makes data harder to analyse the next day. I have had much more success in scumhunting after a short 100-150 post day, than chatting and circular arguments for 300 posts.

Day 1 will always be close to random, barring a significant slip, but even then, townies have the potential to do so too. The best chance of catching scum is using confirmed information and confirmed alignments. We don't get those until Day 2, and most players won't sift through a 15 page thread dedicated to Day 1 to analyse this information. Less is more. Seriously.

It isn't scummy to want a quicker, sharper game. If anything, we have a better chance of winning the game this way, because pressure of the noose is heightened in a speedier town, which in turn creates information. Trust me, you don't want the game of mafia to turn into a typing contest, because it sucks the life out of the game, and demotivates players to pay proper attention to the game.

Although I understand where you're coming from, I like to think things through carefully (you don't want to know how long it took me to write that WoT above). I don't want the game to become slow, but as long as there's good discussion at a brisk pace I think taking the full day is better. Obviously at 5 days to go or thereabouts we need to really batten down and reach a verdict, but we aren't there yet.

[redtail896]

Actually, after writing that response to Hoopla, I realize that I have questions that I'd like to ask everyone.

@Adaham In regards to your comment that "Meager reason for a vote = scumtell"... How much do you think this applies on Day 1? Which votes currently out there (and maybe historically) do you think qualify under this criterion?

@AdumbroDeus Please explain kingcod's "buddying up" (I'm not seeing it) and why it's suspicious in this case.

@Hoopla To what extent do you think we have the ability to make any sort of informed choice about who to lynch today?

@kingcod Why did you vote for MrSandman? Do you think that Hoopla's initial justification was reasonable?

@LobsterCatapult

hoopla comes across as town from me, though the presumptuous asking of opinions and votes seems more aggressive than scum.

Is this list of questions aggressive? Is is scummy?

@MrSandman Do you sympathize at all with the bandwagon against you? And why did you devote and entire post to a single unvote on page 1 (with literally no reasoning attached)?

@RayFrost You claim that your MrSandman vote was a bandwagon pressure vote. Does it still serve that purpose? Are you willing to lynch MrSandman?

@Valkyrie Do you like Pearl Jam?

[Hoopla]

After a while, you learn to realise that nobody really reads and understands wall-posts as much as the person writing them. Conciseness is a pro-town quality. Sacrifice the ego, and talk in a succinct manner - simplify points to the simplest they can be without losing anything. You don't need to explain all your thoughts with an essay.

I will try to summarise my suspicions for you, though. Give me a moment.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla To what extent do you think we have the ability to make any sort of informed choice about who to lynch today?

I've done a lot of data-mining in the Mini Normal forum. I've catalogued 300+ games, and have read/skimmed about a quarter of them, I would say. In the last 90 3:9's (the most common set-up outside newbies), scum has been lynched on Day 1 only 19 times, which is just over a 20% strike-rate. When you consider randomly lynching will yield a 25% result, it's fair to say, town's chances Day 1 are slim, and the power of an informed minority really shows.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newbie games reflected a similar statistic, because I doubt the scumhunting here is more acutely tuned. The best thing we can do today is have a couple of competing wagons, leave the noose dangling for a bit, and then try and spot motivations before we hammer, and then most importantly on Day 2. All Day 1 really is, is providing enough information to help us hit scum tomorrow. I guess it's a fairly detached, sad view of the game, but I prefer the cold hand of realism as opposed people overhyping the odds of someone being scum.

[AdumbroDeus]

@AdumbroDeus Please explain kingcod's "buddying up" (I'm not seeing it) and why it's suspicious in this case.

@AdumbroDeus - sorry I don't understand this - can you rephrase?

"Regardless, even if Sailor is just a weak player at the end of the day, weak players are bad for town, especially in lylo, so scum is obviously top priority, but weak players are there too, failing a good choice for clearly scum. Of course inactives have priority over simply weak players cause the town cannot win with them."

Are you suggesting lynching weak townies as a strategy to thin out the choices?

Shows he disagrees rather obviously, and finds it to be an outrageous idea.

Well he is both, of course - , but I do agree with ray's sentiment. You are posting more about

not

posting than you have in giving your thoughts and ideas about the game.

Whilst I agree with you that newbies might be weak and therefore at heightened risk of being wrongly lynched I don't really agree that newbies tend to be less active.

We need your valued input whether its comprehensively researched or not.

On the whole 'lets winnow the chaff from the corn' debate its becoming a bit of a null point - surely we only vote for someone who we believe is genuinely scum ... therefore to rank order scum, inactives and weak players (post 103) is simply not relevant.

However, AdumbroDeus is right to raise the debate. Unlike Adaham:

If I was kingcod and innocent, I´d be a bit more harsh in my critique of this basically outrageous statement of AD. Wink to the packy to pace it down?

Methinks this might be stirring discontent

FoS Adaham

And now he's like, "ok, well, we have different opinions, oh but going after adumbro for expressing this opinion, BAD! FOS"


And while I admit it's possible that kingcod is merely more open-minded in terms of the metagame, I find it unlikely especially considering his earlier response, that's why it strikes me as odd, and attempted buddying.


Since I'm probably not gonna live out the day at this rate, my first concern is that town DOES NOT TRUST HIM when I flip.

[Hoopla]

Here is an explanation about a couple of my reads;

Valkyrie;

This quote still sums up my opinions, despite being a minimal poster, I think the situation around her has made her alignment look clearer to me;

It's nothing Valkyrie has posted herself that has generated this read - it's more others reactions toward her. Sandman, sailorpallas and Adumbro jumping on her seemed awkward, when she wasn't the only one lurking. It seemed like an easy target for scum, which is what scum often go for, because they have less blood on their hands if a lynch on a scummier player goes through, than if they chase a more difficult mislynch prospect.

This is a double-edged sword though, insofar as easy targets are often the scummier players which makes it like a snake eating it's own tail. But in this instance I see the pushers of Valkyrie more scummy than Valkyrie, which makes Valkyrie appear more town by default.

RayFrost

and

Lobster

are more gut reads, however Lobster is slightly more explainable than Ray. Her eagerness, and genuine curiousity seems genuine - her activity reflects this too. Generally newbie-scum tend to be more tentative and guarded in their posts, because the natural way you want to play scum is to leave your options open and not step on too many toes.. She really does have an inquisitve and naive air about her, which is strikingly town.

Sandman's

early play fit the scum-model (or concept) I have in my mind. Survival based motivations rather than innocent curiousity, backing down and safe-votes. It's a plethora of scum-tells specifically tailored for newbie players, and Sandman ticked a lot of those boxes. I'm not completely sold by his player summaries, but it's a step in the right direction. I'd still lynch him now.

Redtail

, I'm liking your entry into the game so far, I'm hoping your town! What's the scummiest thing you think I have done?

[AdumbroDeus]

RayFrost

[/b] and

Lobster

are more gut reads, however Lobster is slightly more explainable than Ray. Her eagerness, and genuine curiousity seems genuine - her activity reflects this too. Generally newbie-scum tend to be more tentative and guarded in their posts, because the natural way you want to play scum is to leave your options open and not step on too many toes.. She really does have an inquisitve and naive air about her, which is strikingly town.

This summery is exactly the reason why I play that way as scum when it's my first time playing in a new group that's at least reasonably experienced.


EVERYBODY assumes that, and I end up as the least scummy person by the end of the game, after I bus a comrade or two of course.

We end up winning and I'm like, "serves you right for underestimating me".



Not saying Lobster is scum, I don't have a clear read, yet. But don't be too complacent.

[kingcod]

Some more firey posting since I last looked, which is helpful.

@Sandman: I don't think I am being any more or less defensive than anyone else. Anyhow, the first section of your reply post 134 was useful, even if middle bit was rather OMGUS and the latter end got a bit irate! I'm satisfied you've traced back the initial evidence for the vote on you to something which now looks weak.

For this reason

unvote sandman

I don't think a day one lynch for sandman is useful when there may be some more appropriate targets. Sorry guys.

Welcome Redtail896. A helpful first post. I was going to ask AdumbroDeus the same question you did - "Show me where I buddied up to him?"

@AdumbroDeus - you seem hyper sensitive when your name is mentioned as making a positive contribution, and also suggest that me trying to clarify a point you made is buddying. How does that work?I disagreed with you about picking off weak players and still do. We should lynch scum, not slow players. Are we clear?

Since I'm probably not gonna live out the day at this rate, my first concern is that town DOES NOT TRUST HIM when I flip.

The melodrama in this is suspicious - there is only one vote on AdumbroDeus so he is no worse position than most others.

And just to be a little pendantic you did say you wouldn't respond to comments on your scumtell on me until I had posted ... but then you responded to Redtail896's question. I'll take that as general impatience with the pace of the game!

I must say that re-reading page 6 I am currently finding it hard to pick a strong lynch candidate.

That said - on with the scum hunt: Hoopla's play has indeed been quite structured and unusual. part helpdesk, part bandwagon leader. It might be a case of actin too perfect (yeah I know this might sound warped) - the meta-analysis of every game since Noah was particularly inspired - but could it be an 'authoratative' camouflage?

@Hoopla - how answer you?

[AdumbroDeus]

@AdumbroDeus - you seem hyper sensitive when your name is mentioned as making a positive contribution, and also suggest that me trying to clarify a point you made is buddying. How does that work?I disagreed with you about picking off weak players and still do. We should lynch scum, not slow players. Are we clear?

Since I'm probably not gonna live out the day at this rate, my first concern is that town DOES NOT TRUST HIM when I flip.

The melodrama in this is suspicious - there is only one vote on AdumbroDeus so he is no worse position than most others.

And just to be a little pendantic you did say you wouldn't respond to comments on your scumtell on me until I had posted ... but then you responded to Redtail896's question. I'll take that as general impatience with the pace of the game!

I must say that re-reading page 6 I am currently finding it hard to pick a strong lynch candidate.

The votecount is irrelevant atm, what matters is that everyone has tossed me into the "suspicious" category, and unless there's a major change in the game, when people decide to lynch, I'm the target.


Now then, to respond to your actual statements, then why did you immediately FoS the guy who went after me for doing WHAT YOU OBVIOUSLY DISAGREE WITH.


Now, please explain why you chose to do that, cause I find it scummy, and I think I'm not the only one (you managed to get Adaham to believe we're a scum team after all).






As for the response to redtail896, I in fact specifically said, "my scum analysis", in other words, "how I think scum should be analyzed". That was referring to RayFrost's post.


So, yes, my ideas are unpopular, might as well use that fact to scumhunt while I'm around.