Mini 956: The Quayside (Game Over)

[Jahudo]

I agree. No votes yet. If there's a scum RB, we have no way of winning if we go to night with a mislynch.

[RedCoyote]

Sigh.

Unvote

[Ectomancer]

I think its fairly firmly established that Goat is town. McGriddle is town. So the scum group is the following:

Elmo/Red/Incognito or 1 of that group plus Jahudo/Iam. Given the speculation that masons could have been role cop bait, I would say that the roleblocker lies in one of the first 3 and should be our target as it will allow me to hit one of the masons tonight and either condemn or clear the other.

[Incognito]

McGriddle, what are your current thoughts? Who are you most suspicious of?

[Elmo]

Given the speculation that masons could have been role cop bait,

I don't follow this.

[McGriddle]

McGriddle, what are your current thoughts? Who are you most suspicious of?

Well as of this point, I am suspicious of Red. I don't know about that vote on Elmo, and for nobody else to join or support it, it makes me think that he is scum starting a wagon getting a start on the Elmo wagon. I don't really have any strong reads as I have been kind of inactive lately (sorry :/ didn't plan on a car accident) but that Red scare (hahaaa... Historical joke lol) seems to be pointed out pretty strong.

[Ectomancer]

Given the speculation that masons could have been role cop bait,

I don't follow this.

If the masons are scum masons so that the rolecop would receive that result, then the roleblocker would not be among them.

[Elmo]

Oh, I see where you're coming from. Two mafia masons paired together? That's pretty cool, especially with the rolecop and if some flavour lets them know mason is a safe claim.

I guess I've mostly been assuming they're either masons or both standard mafia roles who made it up. I'm not really sure how the timing of NabNab's death affects things... it's a good spur-of-the-moment gambit but I don't entirely see why they tie themselves so close as scum. On the other hand, I've seen weirder I guess. Hm.

Also I think this is 2/2 games where NabNab got lynched as soon as I entered the game, both as town, lol - sorry

[Hoopla]

Day 3, Vote Count 3

With eight alive, it takes

5

votes to lynch. Deadline is schedueled for 6:30PM GMT, May 22nd <Countdown>.

Not Voting

-

8

(RedCoyote, Incognito, Goatrevolt, Jahudo, iamausername, Elmo, Ectomancer, McGriddle)

[Goatrevolt]

Elmo:

They are quite possibly scum masons. Hoopla was in Zoraster's Caught in the Crossfire, and it had scum masons, and we both reported enjoying the role. Scum masons would be quite a fun interaction with a role cop. It says their ROLE: they are masons. You still have to figure out if one or the other is town or scum to determine the other's alignment.

Also, Masons with Weak Doctor = two confirmed townies for the price of one doc protect, which seems extremely town balanced, not even taking into account 3 other confirmable "town" roles.

The interaction between Town Role Cop who can see they are masons, Scum Masons, and a Town Weak Doc who would be naturally inclined to protect the masons (and thus die, but cast suspicion on them) sounds like a pretty elegant setup design to me.

[RedCoyote]

If we really think that both the Vigilantes are telling the truth, then how can you not advocate lynching a Mason? Wouldn't it be a sure thing, if you took that point of view?

If I were Ecto, McGriddle, or Goat, the team of me, Elmo, and Incog honestly wouldn't seem rational.

[Jahudo]

I don't see how "scum mason" is a role that fits a normal game, because I don't see how it's a normal role. I've heard of one person in a masonry being scum when they're unconfirmed, but not both showing up as town to a role cop when they're really scum.

You really should look at it like we're either town masons or mafia goons.

[Elmo]

They don't show up as town to a rolecop, that's kind of the point. They'd show up as "mason", because they are; they're just mafia-aligned masons. Mafia/scum mason is a common and simple enough role that it could easily qualify as normal imo.

Masons, what would really help from my pov is if you could make a case on someone? Saying "welp, from my pov it must be Elmo/Incog/Red" and then doing nothing doesn't help a whole lot, because I'm sure you can see where that leads from my pov. Any kind of actual analysis would be nice at this point.

[Jahudo]

Right, forget the part about role cop getting town. My point is more that scum wouldn't have a role name containing "Mason".
Sources: This post. And this post. Also this post.

I will make a case for RC.

[Incognito]

Just looked through zoraster's game and wow, I had no idea that he had BOTH of the masons as scum. I was under the impression that usually when a mason team has a scum mason, it's usually the case that one of the two masons is scum while the other is town. All this time I was just thinking that if our claimed Masons are scum, they were just fake-claiming while holding other possible scum roles instead. I could see why people have been speculating about the possible rolecop interaction now and how both iamausername and Jahudo could both be scum masons. If that's the case, then kudos to Hoopla for making a really intricately designed and elegant game.

I don't know about that vote on Elmo, and for nobody else to join or support it, it makes me think that he is scum starting a wagon getting a start on the Elmo wagon.

RC's vote on Elmo only lasted for less than an hour though. So I don't really see the second portion of what you're saying here about him.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to be gone for the next two days probably without internet. I may check in a time or two during that period but I wouldn't count on it.

I'd like to see what Jahudo has.

If we really think that both the Vigilantes are telling the truth, then how can you not advocate lynching a Mason? Wouldn't it be a sure thing, if you took that point of view?

If I were Ecto, McGriddle, or Goat, the team of me, Elmo, and Incog honestly wouldn't seem rational.

I don't think the scum team is You/Elmo/Incognito. I don't think you and Elmo fit as scum together, for one.

I've already pointed this out before, but I'll go ahead and say it again.

If the masons are scum, you are the most likely scum partner to them. Elmo and Incognito both make much less sense based on how they were on Jahudo and then swapped to Iamusername day 2. It seems unlikely that they would try to wagon both of their scum buddies in opposition to the pops lynch. And if the masons are scum, then both vigs are probably town, leaving you as the remainder.

However, if the masons are not scum, then you are almost assuredly scum.

That means the scum team is between the 2 vigs and the 3 vanilla players. In that scenario, I doubt both vigs are scum and I doubt McGriddle is scum. So out of the 4 players Elmo, Ecto, Red, Incognito, all 3 others would have to be scum, and I read all 3 of those players as more townie than you.

The problem with lynching you would be the possibility of losing to a Masons + Incognito or Masons + Elmo team that could have been avoided by simply lynching a mason, but that risk is balanced by the possibility the masons are town.

And if the scum team is you + masons, then you're much more likely to be the roleblocker because of the possibility that they actually ARE masons.

[Jahudo]

Just looked through zoraster's game and wow, I had no idea that he had BOTH of the masons as scum.

Hmm, that game is a large normal but I would still think scum masons are non-normal. No offense to zor, but I'd listen to Thok and Thesp over him.

And if masons have created this much doubt, a weak doctor could get killed without us knowing who he protected, and vigs could swing momentum to the scum I wouldn't think this setup was town-powerful. But that's just me and that only setup I created was swingy as hell.

Right, back to the case-making.

[Ectomancer]

I haven't convinced myself that Elmo/Red/Incog are not a scum team, but I did decide that if we have to look for a partner for the masons, we can't do it in LYLO and will be best served by lynching one of them first, even if it means we leave a roleblocker to do their thing.
I see Goat feels Red is the most likely scum, but I'm not seeing why it couldn't be Elmo, or Incognito for that matter. Elmo seems at least as likely as Red could.

[Elmo]

Pretty sure all Mini Normals are still being vetted by Thesp.
I think there's a "you may have one or two unusual roles" disclaimer for Normal games, dunno what that means in this context.

Remarkably quiet for the stage of the game.

[Incognito]

Still waiting for the case that Jahudo is making against RedCoyote, but I'm having serious doubts that it'll change my mind with respect to who I'd like to lynch Today.

One additional thing that I did notice though was that back around the D2 deadline when iamausername's mason claim began getting called into question, he suddenly became much more active than he had ever been during any other game-state of this game so far. I'm just having a really hard time believing that the mason claims are coming from pro-town power roles. I'd just expect them to be kicking and screaming for someone else's lynch other than their own right now, but I'm just getting a "I've packed it in" type of feeling from them.

[Incognito]

Incidentally:

I haven't convinced myself that Elmo/Red/Incog are not a scum team

How likely do you think this is anyway?

[Jahudo]

RC is scum by his lack of scumhunting. On day 1 he shows...

* A lack of trying to understand and address the points of the NabNab wagon. (No quotes, but ISO him and try to find reaction to Nab's "dominant wagon", "bad scum", "only non-invitation" case points on McGriddle, his further reaction to McGriddle unvoting in consideration of voting Nab or Jahudo, or even the speculative scumpairing of Nab and Jahudo. RedCoyote holds out his opinions while filling up his text walls with less pertinent information.)

* Little interest in investigating Elmo and McGriddle. After his Elmo vote in post 117 he adds nothing new to the case until this small bit on post 274 (the bottom sentence is new, the top is mostly rehash) without any questioning or pressure. Then a little more in post 331, so about once every 4 pages he adds to his case.

* Blanket condemnation of the members of the NabNab wagon, setting up for plenty of scapegoats (and a scapegoatrevolt). This looks bad because he didn't have a strong argument for finding NabNab to be a townie, and it looks like he's projecting Nab to flip town more confidently than he can back up.

I don't see where he was overly concerned that NabNab was the only wagon during the middle of the day. He only showed that frustration when it was too late. It looks like he was coasting and maybe setting up a mislynch or two, though I don't really think he was invested in his Elmo case.

[Elmo]

Monsieur Red?

[Ectomancer]

Incidentally:

I haven't convinced myself that Elmo/Red/Incog are not a scum team

How likely do you think this is anyway?

It didn't pop up except as a process of elimination. I think the alternative is more likely.

[iamausername]

So here's that case on Incognito I promised like ten years ago. Also some point against Incog that I did not have at the time, but are no less salient.

Post #39 - super waffling with regards to Goat. "I don't like it but I don't think it's malicious", what exactly is the purpose of pointing that out? And the further explanation in #84 doesn't make it any better, it really looks like a case of trying to have it both ways. He's making very sure that he doesn't actually accuse Goat of anything, but he's laying the groundwork to accuse him further down the line if it becomes convenient.

Post Post #225 - His accusing Jahudo of lying here really doesn't track right - it's clearly not a lie that would benefit scum in any way, and I think a town Incog who was actually trying to figure out Jahudo's alignment, and not just trying to find things he could use against him, would realise that.

Post #268 - The last sentence in this post, why is it there? Surely we all know that it goes without saying that D1 reads are not set in stone, so why is Incog being so careful to point this out? I think if we refer back to his answer to my "how would we know if you were scum" question at the start of the game, there is our explanation:

When I'm scum, I think I'm less likely to try to 'clear' people as town.

Post #269 - Incog's super case on Jahudo. "He's a bit lurky and backgroundy", that's it. Oh, and "I accused him of lying earlier, he explained how it obviously wasn't lying, but I'm going to keep on using it as a point against him anyway". This is the case that it was majorly suspicious of Jahudo not to prostrate himself in front of and declare himself scum. This is the case that I did not understand when I said that lurking was a major component of it.

Post #319 - Wording here: "It doesn't seem likely that a wagon will switch to Jahudo before deadline, and I've mentioned that I agree with the wagon on NabNab anyway." Not "I agree with the wagon", but "

I've mentioned

that I agree". Again, showing that he's overly concerned about appearing consistent in a way that a town player wouldn't be.

Post #395 - No matter how well they know that commenting on the NK in this way is a blatant scum tell, time and time again, scum still just can't help themselves.

Post #449 - What the hell is wrong with SC using a case made on D1 as a major reason for voting pops on D2? Why would that case suddenly become invalid overnight?

Post #495 - "it almost looks like he's just trying to intimidate people off of joining the Jah-wagon." - it doesn't

almost look like

anything; I was very blatantly trying to intimidate people off of joining the Jahudo wagon. He is implying that I was subtly manipulating people away from Jahudo when I was in fact outright telling them "don't vote Jahudo". This is a complete warping of reality with the intention of painting me as some kind of shady criminal mastermind.

Post #530 - Much like the "Jahudo lied about not knowing what game McGriddle was talking about" bit, we again have Incog saying "here is a point against Jahudo, it is not a valid point, but I'm going to use it anyway".

Post #605 - "I can't see that as a facetious comment, no. I can't even see why I should interpret that as being a facetious comment when it followed his start-of-Day comments that said he had bad vibes about me. There's a vast difference between "which finger is the major one" and "Incog's posts are bad".

iamausername, were you joking around when you made that comment?"

Let's scroll back a bit. I say pops' defence against my case is "my posts are good", he says that's because my case is "your posts are bad", I say "no, that's my case against Incog."

Yes, this facetious comment at the end of a series of facetious comments is a facetious comment on how I had yet to actually present a case against Incog. It is, in fact, blindingly obviously a facetious comment. I can maybe see how you could possibly miss that initially, but I can't see how you would miss that

even after SC points out that it is a facetious comment

.

Post #726 - "It seems all too convenient to me that the two people who were scummiest to me decide to confirm each other as this pro-town mason team." This is some bullshit right here. If we were both at the top of Incog's scumlist completely independently, this would make sense, but the only reason I was there in the first place is because I defended the shit out of Jahudo for bad reasons. It's not "convenient", so much as it is "a logical explanation for the play that made these two the scummiest in the first place".

"Actually, with the way

SC

kept defending iamausername, I was kinda beginning to think that if by some miracle the two of them were town, that iamausername and

SC

were likely masons. So yeah, the mason claim from Jah/IAUN was completely unexpected."

In addition to attacking me primarily for defending the shit out of Jahudo, Incog has also repeatedly brought up the fact that Jahudo claimed to have "a solid town read" on me as a point against him, because he could not see a reason for that read. I cannot see how Incog can honestly have considered the possibility that I was a mason with SC, but be taken completely by surprise by my actual partner. That does not stack up in the slightest. This is all done in service of pushing the "convenient" line to throw doubt on our claim, and it is

bull

.

Post #731 - His vote on SC, based on the fact that SC doesn't consider the possibility that Ecto is mafia. SC explains this in this post, and Incog... completely ignores this explanation and leaves his vote on SC for the rest of the day. Really?