Newbie 955 - Game over

[Hoopla]

HELLO MY NEWBIES

Vote: RayFrost

[Hoopla]

Hey guys.

Vote Hoople

Happy Bday.

Who is this alleged Hoople? Lets lynch him.

[Hoopla]

*rubs hands*


Let's get started, Hoopla, why'd you join my bandwagon?

I wasn't aware you owned the rights to this wagon.

[Hoopla]

Well now you are, so why'd you choose to follow in my bandwagon, was it something about Ray or because I had already posted, I'd like your thoughts.

Yeah, I saw him rocks at kittens. Plus he's a communist and doesn't brush his teeth properly. That and he is scum. It's pretty much the best page 2 case I have ever seen.

Also, we'd get nowhere if everyone wanted to hold hands and keep a one-vote-per-player rule in place. More Ray votes please.

[Hoopla]

Vote Valkyrie

You ever going to show up and post bro?

Seems a bit early to be on the lurker hunt, no? If that is going to be the criteria for your vote now, why did you neglect to mention sailorpallas? Or are you only upset with Valkyrie?

Your first vote did not stick very well, and to be honest it was unusual unvoting when you did. It makes it look like you're now seeking a safe place to drop a vote, rather than concerning yourself with the reasons the vote is supposedly for. For if you were serious about it's intentions you wouldn't have been so brazen to miss another non-poster. I'd suggest this is a weak scum tell, as scum are likelier to try and drop a 'safe' vote to stay unchallenged - remember survival is a lot more individually important to scum than town. I'm happy to hear your interpretation of events before I abandon Ray for you.

[Hoopla]

isnt it also good for town to have discussion though, and not a total consensus on day 1 votes so soon? i mean, i know all of us voting for all different people doesnt get us anywhere, but doesnt having a few different perspectives and votes for different people help town more than just getting more votes for someone at first?

Yes and no. I have a penchant for early bandwagons because it is the quickest and simplest way to create information. Having one or two major event early forces everyone to contribute a stance either way, making for easier comparisons in motives later because you're using the same variable.

Bandwagons don't always (in fact don't often) go through to lynch, but fear of the noose is something that ekes out more information, than everyone being relatively safe. Hey, are you up for a Sandman bandwagon?

[Hoopla]

No, I'm only upset with Valkyrie. I was just teasing though.

Why are you back-pedaling? I'd much prefer a lurker vote over a random vote - that's more reasoning than a couple of us have provided. Why not drop a serious vote now? Do you have any substantial reads either way yet?

[Hoopla]

but why sandman? or did you just pick him arbitrarily?

Definitely not arbitrary - I think Sandman's play is starting to eclipse Ray's cat hate.

His play reads like scum walking on eggshells, making sure not to offend. He's backed down twice this game, once from the only definitive stance he's taken this game - his vote on Valkyrie. It just reeks of scum trying to fit in, rather than genuine curiosity or interest behind others' motivations.

I'm happy to be the first domino in this chain though;

Unvote, vote: MrSandman

[Hoopla]

No, I'm only upset with Valkyrie. I was just teasing though.

Why are you back-pedaling? I'd much prefer a lurker vote over a random vote - that's more reasoning than a couple of us have provided. Why not drop a serious vote now? Do you have any substantial reads either way yet?

How am I backpedaling?

It looks like you're taking a serious stance on non-posters, but then make up for your lack of sailor mention with a casual joke. 'I was just teasing' - plays down the potential seriousness of your lurker-vote which stops anyone finding you scummy for it, if there was no serious intent behind it.

So, was it serious? Why not place a serious vote now? In conclusion, why so serious?

[Hoopla]

What is your opinion on my alignment and Lobster's alignment? We've both posted enough now for you to get an opinion either way.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla is female, last I checked.

Also, what about me?

I think you're female too.

[Hoopla]

Someone explain to me why Valkyrie has three votes? The universe doesn't make sense.

[Hoopla]

Someone explain to me why Valkyrie has three votes? The universe doesn't make sense.

Care to explain to the newbies on why this is a problem my inexperienced challenged comrade?

I suppose you're right though,

Unvote

. Too early for L - 2.

It isn't a problem - I generally favour one or two people hovering close to lynch. I just want to know the reasons from those voting her.

[Hoopla]

um....what is L-2? does this refer to the difference in votes it takes to lynch someone?

It literally means 'lynch minus 2'. Two votes away from that person being lynched. You'll see 'L-1' being mentioned in a lot of games.

[Hoopla]

1. It's easy for scum to pretend to play weak, especially with new players since we have no meta on them. That means weak play is a scumtell in and of itself. This applies to being both weak and inactive. Being strategically inactive is an even bigger scumtell.

2. Strong players are more valuable to have in town in general, even if they flip scum, you're still leaving the majority of strong players in town, and this means it's more likely to have a successful lylo. This goes double for inactives, cause wasted slots or barely active players mean literally can't win lylo at worst, at best it's impossible to get a read on them.

It's easy for scum to pretend to play weak? You're just sewing seeds of paranoia to incriminate weaker players. I don't remember seeing anyone deliberately playing weak just to try and avoid suspicion. A player being weak or strong is generally proportionate to the value they have for either side.

Weaker players can often be quite useful to the town, if they're easy to read. A town consensus on them forces scum's hand to NK them, knowing it's unlikely they can attain a mislynch there. You say strong players are valuable to the town, even if they flip scum - can you explain this? The town generally only has 3 mislynches, so a significant chunk of players won't be lynched this game. Guess who is likeliest to avoid being lynched?

Strong players need to come under just as much, if not more scrutiny than weaker players, because if they are scum, they're not going to be NK'ed and are difficult to be lynch.

1. Scum
2. Inactives
3. Weak players

These three qualities aren't mutually exclusive, they never really are. If we knew who was scum, we wouldn't need to worry about the rest. The other two are identifiable, and often overlap. I don't know what is to be gained by filtering players into unnecessary groups.

[Hoopla]

At the moment I have town reads on LobsterCatapault, RayFrost and Valkyrie.

I wouldn't be surprised if the scum is lurking in this group of players; AdumbroDeus, Sandman, Adaham, kingcod, sailorpallas.

[Hoopla]

What exactly do you think of kingcod at the moment?

I don't have a read on him either way yet, which is why I'm open to the possibility of him being scum. Why are you asking me about kingcod in particular?

Hoopla:

Why do you believe valkyrie is town?

It's nothing Valkyrie has posted herself that has generated this read - it's more others reactions toward her. Sandman, sailorpallas and Adumbro jumping on her seemed awkward, when she wasn't the only one lurking. It seemed like an easy target for scum, which is what scum often go for, because they have less blood on their hands if a lynch on a scummier player goes through, than if they chase a more difficult mislynch prospect.

This is a double-edged sword though, insofar as easy targets are often the scummier players which makes it like a snake eating it's own tail. But in this instance I see the pushers of Valkyrie more scummy than Valkyrie, which makes Valkyrie appear more town by default. How does that sound to you?

[Hoopla]

Right, the server seems to be fairly stable now, so lets get on with it.

Valkyrie, Sandman:

drop a vote on someone in your next post please. Enough has transpired in this game to give you some decent suspects.

Everyone else; we're getting to the point where we've got enough data to work with tomorrow and we should be wrapping up Day 1 before this game evaporates and goes stale. After Valkyrie and Sandman have placed a vote, we can view the collective suspicions of everyone and come to an agreement on someone.

Some of us will have to make compromises on this first lynch, but dragging out Day 1 is usually a negative net result (mostly because nobody reads it properly the next day if it's long - less is more). I'll get the ball rolling to say I'm still well in favour of a Sandman lynch, but I could be swayed to sailorpallas or Adumbro if I see good arguments there.

I'd like to see everyone give a concise summary of their suspects and who they'd be open to lynching.

[Hoopla]

CALM DOWN MY NEWBIES, HELPFULNESS ISN'T A SCUMTELL!

Also, I understand the paranoia about ending the day too quickly. I too was raised on the maxim of 'never rushing the day', but using time just for the sake of using time IS A DAMAGING LONG-TERM MENTALITY to fall into. It drops off awareness, dwindles interest in the game, and makes data harder to analyse the next day. I have had much more success in scumhunting after a short 100-150 post day, than chatting and circular arguments for 300 posts.

Day 1 will always be close to random, barring a significant slip, but even then, townies have the potential to do so too. The best chance of catching scum is using confirmed information and confirmed alignments. We don't get those until Day 2, and most players won't sift through a 15 page thread dedicated to Day 1 to analyse this information. Less is more. Seriously.

It isn't scummy to want a quicker, sharper game. If anything, we have a better chance of winning the game this way, because pressure of the noose is heightened in a speedier town, which in turn creates information. Trust me, you don't want the game of mafia to turn into a typing contest, because it sucks the life out of the game, and demotivates players to pay proper attention to the game.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

[Hoopla]

After a while, you learn to realise that nobody really reads and understands wall-posts as much as the person writing them. Conciseness is a pro-town quality. Sacrifice the ego, and talk in a succinct manner - simplify points to the simplest they can be without losing anything. You don't need to explain all your thoughts with an essay.

I will try to summarise my suspicions for you, though. Give me a moment.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla To what extent do you think we have the ability to make any sort of informed choice about who to lynch today?

I've done a lot of data-mining in the Mini Normal forum. I've catalogued 300+ games, and have read/skimmed about a quarter of them, I would say. In the last 90 3:9's (the most common set-up outside newbies), scum has been lynched on Day 1 only 19 times, which is just over a 20% strike-rate. When you consider randomly lynching will yield a 25% result, it's fair to say, town's chances Day 1 are slim, and the power of an informed minority really shows.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newbie games reflected a similar statistic, because I doubt the scumhunting here is more acutely tuned. The best thing we can do today is have a couple of competing wagons, leave the noose dangling for a bit, and then try and spot motivations before we hammer, and then most importantly on Day 2. All Day 1 really is, is providing enough information to help us hit scum tomorrow. I guess it's a fairly detached, sad view of the game, but I prefer the cold hand of realism as opposed people overhyping the odds of someone being scum.

[Hoopla]

Here is an explanation about a couple of my reads;

Valkyrie;

This quote still sums up my opinions, despite being a minimal poster, I think the situation around her has made her alignment look clearer to me;

It's nothing Valkyrie has posted herself that has generated this read - it's more others reactions toward her. Sandman, sailorpallas and Adumbro jumping on her seemed awkward, when she wasn't the only one lurking. It seemed like an easy target for scum, which is what scum often go for, because they have less blood on their hands if a lynch on a scummier player goes through, than if they chase a more difficult mislynch prospect.

This is a double-edged sword though, insofar as easy targets are often the scummier players which makes it like a snake eating it's own tail. But in this instance I see the pushers of Valkyrie more scummy than Valkyrie, which makes Valkyrie appear more town by default.

RayFrost

and

Lobster

are more gut reads, however Lobster is slightly more explainable than Ray. Her eagerness, and genuine curiousity seems genuine - her activity reflects this too. Generally newbie-scum tend to be more tentative and guarded in their posts, because the natural way you want to play scum is to leave your options open and not step on too many toes.. She really does have an inquisitve and naive air about her, which is strikingly town.

Sandman's

early play fit the scum-model (or concept) I have in my mind. Survival based motivations rather than innocent curiousity, backing down and safe-votes. It's a plethora of scum-tells specifically tailored for newbie players, and Sandman ticked a lot of those boxes. I'm not completely sold by his player summaries, but it's a step in the right direction. I'd still lynch him now.

Redtail

, I'm liking your entry into the game so far, I'm hoping your town! What's the scummiest thing you think I have done?

[Hoopla]

Could you explain why you think Hoopla's vote on Sandman is scummy, but my unvote of Sandman is also scummy? It was hardly as if I made a a rapid switch - it has taken me seven days of seeing the game develop to unvote him!

Certainly. I consider Hoopla's vote suspicious because of poor reasoning. And that in and of itself wouldn't be nearly so bad if she hadn't then started lurking for a bit, leading (I think) to the impression that she was more of a dedicated scumhunter than she really was. In short, it wasn't the vote itself, so much as the subsequent actions and the image I think it created.

What was poor about my reasoning, mister? I thought it was damn sound reasoning.

[Hoopla]

@ Hoopla -can you come back on my observation here:

Hoopla's play has indeed been quite structured and unusual. part helpdesk, part bandwagon leader. It might be a case of actin too perfect (yeah I know this might sound warped) - the meta-analysis of every game since Noah was particularly inspired - but could it be an 'authoratative' camouflage?

I don't think it is has been that structured, unless you mean you are noticing different aspects of play in different posts, then...yes. I can understand the authorative fears, and I suppose the reason I have toned my play down is due to being a bit busier in my life, and because I know I get pushy when I don't get what I want.

But I don't think being helpdesk-ish at times is a substancial crime (if it is even one). I dig the theory chats, because it makes it easier to explain where I am coming from if people have a deeper understanding of my philosophies.

[Hoopla]

MrSandman (2) Hoopla, RayFrost
AdumbroDeus (2) Adaham, LobsterCatapult
kingcod (3) MrSandman, AdumbroDeus, redtail896
(No vote) Me=Weird, kingcod
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

Alright, I know I'm about to do the same thing I criticized Hoopla for, but discussion has been lagging the past few days (although, in my defense, discussion was happening at a brisker pace back then). Do we think we have the ability to come to some kind of consensus? Do we need more discussion? As I write this, we have just barely over 9 days left before we go to night.

I forgive you and gracefully accept the withdrawal your of suspicion of me. Love you.

[Hoopla]

I forgive you and gracefully accept the withdrawal your of suspicion of me. Love you.

Gee, thanks. I'm still suspicious of you though. Sorry.

Tsk tsk. One day you will learn redtail that suspecting Hoopla is never a winning play.

Can someone voting kingcod explain the kingcod case in three lines or less please?

[Hoopla]

To hoopla: A less than 3 lines case on kingcod: Votes the most popular suspect when the wagon's hot, then when it loses momentum, unvotes when the wagon loses momentum, with an excuse of "I agree, we shouldn't get him when there are better lynch targets", or something along those lines. Satisfied?

Not really, that sounds like an awfully underwhelming premise. Most of us have to make compromises to make the Day 1 lynch, and we're not going anywhere. We've just had a player replace out which slows the game down even more.

I hope this is enough proof to showcase why 'we need more information!' tactics from towns usually fail, because it is inherently reliant on the same level of interest in the game, and this generally will wane if nothing new happens.

As soon as we get a new replacement, we're lynching Sandman or at a stretch kingcod, so we can test this bandwagon.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: EXEMPTION

[Hoopla]

VOTE: EXEMPTION

So, I can almost agree with this, but I'm curious why. Do you agree with what kingcod and I said? Do you have suspicions of your own?

Yes. I can assure you it is mostly a 'god, please let this day be over' vote. I like the persona that makes up this wagon which gives me better feelings about it. That is of large importance to me.

But seriously, I am crying. I have never been involved in such a lacklustre, apathetic town. I forewarned the danger of hesitating to lynch early in the day, because it does this. Because of the speed of this game, we have gone through a slew of replacements which slows the game down even more.

At this point, I will lynch Exemption, Equinox, kingcod straight away, right now, just so we can have SOMETHING. Please, I appeal to the town, reconfirm your vote, or place a new one in your next post. This is getting to the point of being ridiculous. The only thing that will inject life into this game is a lynch. Lets do it.

[Hoopla]

This is really bad - two roleclaims is very bad for town on Day 1. It has outed a powerrole (if it's true). Without a counterclaim, it is probable, for now. I think kingcod is town too, due to his claim. Which leaves us in an awkward scenario, where we're lynching another person, so we need ANOTHER roleclaim.

Unvote, vote: Equinox

[Hoopla]

You're in favour of lynching one of our claimed players then?

[Hoopla]

Where did I say that, Hoopla? I was just accusing you of fishing.

What is the point of fishing, when there is a real chance there are no more other power roles in the game? It's possible our cop is lying, but I'd rather use him at NK-bait on the probability he is truthful.

It isn't rolefishing - if we lynch outside of kingcod and exemption, they will HAVE to claim. That is what we need to weigh up.

[Hoopla]

if we lynch outside of kingcod and exemption, they will HAVE to claim. That is what we need to weigh up.

Not necessarily. Townies don't need to claim. Either they wiggle themselves out of L-1 or they die. Claiming and staying alive just makes it easier for scum to kill PRs. You might not be directly fishing, but you're helping scum fish.

You usually always ask for a claim before you lynch someone, regardless of whether they are a townie. The fact we have had two people claim before really being asked showcases this mentality. If we search elsewhere, we're going to have to accept this will happen.

The only role left to fish for is Doctor though - there is between 0-2 power roles, yet you're advocating the lynch of an uncountered claimed cop, and simultaneously are worrying about exposing power roles. That seems awfully suspect to me, and makes it sound like you know Exemption is a cop.

[Hoopla]

A half joking question: would anybody be up for wagoning Rayfrost? We have 4 hours to deadline, and it strikes me that we could use a compromise candidate.

Maybe.

[Hoopla]

That was a good game by LobsterCatapult - I had her down as town from the very beginning. To be honest, as soon as I died, I pretty much wrote this game off as a loss. Poor activity to begin with and failure to compromise and work together costs towns heavily in the end, because they are the perfect conditions for scum to manipulate in, with limited pressure ever really being applied to them. The amount of replacements never helps towns either, and I think again this directly relates to poor activity, which is entwined with towns not having the balls to lynch when they've made a decision. We scrambled on D1, and I was lynched (I won't blame anyone for that), but it was poor play when we were fiddling around not doing anything at all up until when we

needed

to lynch, even though we could have many times before. Lesson to all newbies: don't be afraid to compromise for the sake of pushing the game forward. Don't believe anyone who lives in the fantasy world of 'we must use all the time we have', because it leads to lurking, and hurts towns in the long run. Make smart, active, informed decisions and get on with the game.

I think redtail played well overall, and looks like a promising player (despite being quite wrong). He has good foundations for arguments and just needs to tweak his scumdar a little bit, but this comes with experience.

Thanks for modding Korejora, I like your style!