Mini 956: The Quayside (Game Over)

[RedCoyote]

I'd rather not lynch McGriddle either.

List:

1) Elmo
2) SC
3) Ecto

I'll

unvote

and flip to a

vote: SerialClergyman

, because Incog is seemingly the only one willing to defer slightly from the idea that I'm proven scum here.

I've got nothing else for y'all. I think we may all be surprised at who is scum in the PR group once everything is said and done, but I think the best bet is still Ecto with the way I'm seeing it. If nothing else, I enjoyed playing this one with a tailor-made player list that stands up against any other game I've played in before. I got rough with Goat and Elmo, but I don't think they would've wanted it any other way. Good luck town, and I'll catch everyone after the game.

[Goatrevolt]

Why do you believe McGriddle's claim, Red?

[Goatrevolt]

I don't think Red is proven scum. I'm actually kind of surprised by SerialClergyman's vote.

[Hoopla]

Day 2, Vote Count 15

With ten alive, it takes

6

votes to lynch. Deadline is schedueled for 10:00AM GMT, May 9th <Countdown>.

RedCoyote

-

4

(Goatrevolt, Jahudo, McGriddle, SerialClergyman)

McGriddle

-

2

(iamausername, popsofctown)

SerialClergyman

-

2

(Incognito, RedCoyote)

Not Voting

-

2

(Ectomancer, Elmo)

[Ectomancer]

Some of you live under heavy atmospheric pressure...

The *smart* thing to do would have been to follow my example and claim 1-shot as well McGriddle. When you read "even" in your PM, did it not bring any speculation into your head at all? Even after my claim?

ffs...

[Goatrevolt]

Two confirmed town masons.
1-shot Vigilante
Even night Vigilante
Town Role Cop
Weak Doctor

I believe McGriddle's claim. I believe Ecto's claim in that I fully believe he has the ability to kill. Serial makes an excellent point about the unlikelihood that Ectomancer is mafia, which means SK or town. Pops' claim is supported by the lack of N1 kill--if he's scum, the scum no killed to set up his claim and/or Ectomancer is lying to support his claim, which I already touched on the unlikelihood of.

I think the most likely power role claims to be a lie are Iamusername and Jahudo as masons. Right now I'm highly doubting the mason claim.

There are too many town players right now.

Elmo I am reading as town. Incognito I am reading as town. McGriddle I am reading as town based on the claim. Pops I read as town based on the claim.

That leaves:

Jahudo
Iam
SerialClergyman
RedCoyote
Ectomancer

If we assume the masons are town, then the scum team basically has to be RedCoyote/Ectomancer/SerialClergyman.

The problem with that analysis is that it means the scum were seriously effed this game, with such a huge number of confirmable town roles, and Ectomancer doesn't make sense as mafia as stated already. I highly doubt every single claimed role is true and that all the scum are within the vanilla claims.

The other idea is that I'm wrong about Elmo or Incognito. I feel fairly confident that Elmo is town. I feel slightly less confident but still good about Incognito.

I really think we might be looking at Jahudo/Iamusername + either RedCoyote or SerialClergyman as the scum team here. If that's the case, I'm actually leaning more towards Clergyman being the scum in that situation and not Coyote. With Pops' claim, Jahudo was going to get lynched. If Jahudo gets lynched, then Iamusername is next on the table to go. If they planned in advance to claim masons, then they shut down that avenue and basically win the game. Two more mislynches is all a 3 man scum team needs in this situation.

And if you want to talk role setup elegance, the two man confirmed town mason team is the most inelegant piece of this setup, by far.

I asked Jahudo what he and Iam talked about as Masons and his response was "table tennis." Did they really not discuss the game at all as Masons? They didn't talk about Pops and how they wanted to lynch him? There is something hugely fishy about all the roleclaims, and I'm getting a huge feeling it's coming from the mason corner.

A little history: I played in a game on MTGS salvation a year or two ago called Harry Potter Mafia. I was a neutral survivor and won that 24 man game that lasted 9 months...what a test of freaking endurance. Anyway, that's not the point. In that game two scum claimed masons with each other. They were both scummy, and both likely to be lynched in the upcoming days. They ended up going all the way and won. The one defining characteristic of their play was that they did nothing beneficial to town the entire game. Jahudo and Iam have provided absolutely nothing of value to us here as we're nearing lynch. They had no useful discussion in their mason topic, and they have both been scummy this game.

All in all, I think it's the masons.

Unvote

[Goatrevolt]

Some of you live under heavy atmospheric pressure...

The *smart* thing to do would have been to follow my example and claim 1-shot as well McGriddle. When you read "even" in your PM, did it not bring any speculation into your head at all? Even after my claim?

ffs...

I was pretty sure this was the case when you so readily accepted the claim.

It's the masons. It has to be the masons. That's the claim that doesn't fit the setup. I don't think we're going to lynch one of them in 24 hours time, but today's lynch HAS to be either Red or SerialClergyman. McGriddle should shoot the other of the two, and then we need to lynch a mason tomorrow.

Actually... we need to be careful not to leave too many dead tonight. If we mislynch today. If Pops dies from his role, a vig shot and a scum NK, that's 4 dead players. If none of those hit scum we're screwed.

Pops, I think you should protect me. We need to keep as many confirmed players alive as we can. I don't think we have the opportunity to risk you targeting an unknown and dying at this stage of the game.

I think McGriddle should shoot a mason. Not sure that's going to go over well, but I really think a mason HAS to be scum. I don't see how it works any other way.

[Goatrevolt]

Sorry, I'm rambling a bit here and thinking as I'm typing.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm getting definite 2nd thoughts about RedCoyote.

I do think both Red and Clergyman make sense as scum with the mason team.

Clergyman paired Jahudo to Nabakov, and then after Nabakov was town Jahudo dropped down his list of suspects, and he pushed strongly for Pops to go while avoiding and not being terrible receptive to the simultaneous wagon pushed on Jahudo. That is perfect scum-partner to Jahudo play.

He has strongly defended Iam as town all game, and has buddied up to him at various points. He tends to ask a lot of "Iam do you remember this game? Iam, I'm pretty sure this is the right play" type of questions. That feels much more like scum buddying up to town, and makes me slightly less confident it's Clergyman.

As for Red, he had that post where he tried to explain why Jahudo was a bad wagon and why he was going to hammer pops, which still strikes me as a hugely scummy post. Other than that, Jahudo/Iam have been relatively low on his suspicion list all game and he has had very little interaction with the two.

Vote SerialClergyman

I'm going to stick my vote here for now. I think SC is slightly more likely than RedCoyote for scum at the present.

Allow me to reiterate that the masons are scum, though. It is the only way this game makes sense. There are too many town roles, and too many people don't make sense as scum outside of the masons being scum. The masons don't fit the setup at all. 4 confirmed or confirmable roles exist. Ecto/McGriddle/Pops/Nabakov. Do you really think there are an additional 2 confirmed to each other town masons in the mix as well? I don't. Iam has been extremely lurkerish and has provided very little useful information to this game. He's been completely MIA around this important deadline, and he's thrown his vote onto every wagon this game has seen (Nab/Pops/McGriddle). Jahudo has provided nothing of relevance here at deadline either. A weak bandwagon vote on my Red push, and a weak attempt to get a consensus going, and a small jab at SerialClergyman with no oomph behind it. Jahudo and Iam are clearly the two players in this game who are most scummy here at deadline. Clergyman or Red, whichever is scum, have at least been active and useful at deadline.

[Goatrevolt]

If people want to rally up and lynch the masons, I will get on board with that. I just don't see it as hugely likely with 24 hours to go.

[Elmo]

1st. SerialClergyman
2nd. RedCoyote
3rd. Ectomancer

I guess? Red/SC were closer, but SC been creeping me out all game, so less so I figure.

If we assume the masons are town, then the scum team basically has to be RedCoyote/Ectomancer/SerialClergyman. The problem with that analysis is that it means the scum were seriously effed this game, with such a huge number of confirmable town roles

Yeah, I got here a while back. This is why I was unhappy.

At this point I cannot shake the feeling Red flips town. This makes no sense, but unfortunately not many sets of alignments make sense either. Just on a fundamental level, I'm more inclined to suspect the guy being pleasant and agreeing with a bunch of people while being on popular wagons (SC) than the guy irritating the shit out of the obv townie.

The thing about the masons is interesting. The problem is pretty much what I said (I think?) that mason pairs acting like that look exactly like scumbuddies; protecting each other for no apparent reason, staying out of the limelight, etc. Even being on the pops wagon makes sense in order to protect Jahudo.

I guess just on the face of it, it would be a very strong gambit but for that exact reason it's difficult to have any level of confidence that they're scum. I'm pretty sure it goes back to pre-game, given the comment Jahudo made on D1 about posting less than usual as both scum and town. I certainly think it's possible, but I don't yet see any evidence that it's likely; there's no evidence against it, either.

I'll unvote and flip to a vote: SerialClergyman, because Incog is seemingly the only one willing to defer slightly from the idea that I'm proven scum here.

I am as well, that's why I haven't voted you. Increasingly I think SC's more likely scum than you. I started the day thinking you were town, remember?

Can I perhaps get a teensy bit of town credit for defending pops? No?

Hah. Okay, I'll do that just as soon as you give me credit for defending the Masonry.

Hence why this (f.e.) doesn't make huge amounts of sense, I can't 100% remember but I think I still thought you were town as this point. So bleah.

I mean, look, you've been dead set against me for a long time, it would be insanely easy for me to jump on your wagon and get you killed, but I'm not doing that. Please consider: if I'm scum, why? 24h before deadline is a little late in the day to realise I'm town, but it'd be nice.

I got rough with Goat and Elmo, but I don't think they would've wanted it any other way.

You know I love it when you're rough with me, baby.

[Elmo]

Oh good, it's not just me. :V

[Elmo]

Mod: Please prod iamausername & McGriddle

[Goatrevolt]

That's the thing, Elmo. I am getting the feeling Red is going to be town as well. I am fairly certain you are town. I

think

Incognito is town as well, or at least he has played a very, very good pro-town game as scum. The more likely situation is that he's town. Both vig claims make sense, especially if you are capable of reading between the lines with Ectomancer. Pops is very, very unlikely to be scum, and if he's town he cleared me as town as well.

There's nobody else who CAN be scum except the masons. And when you think about it, the masons really don't fit the setup at all. Two very suspicious people claimed masons, in a setup that doesn't support a mason claim, who's response when I asked what they talked about was "table tennis" and an avoidance of answering "when can you two talk with each other?" It's not adding up. They are the most suspicious players at deadline here.

I don't want pops to target a mason. I don't want him to die tonight. I want pops to protect me, or target either Elmo or Incognito, to confirm my feeling that they are town. I think McGriddle should do one of two things. 1. Not shoot. 2. Shoot a mason. I don't think anything else is a good idea.

I really don't think we're going to rally enough to lynch Jahudo or Iamusername today, but our lynch if not them needs to be SerialClergyman.

And tomorrow if I'm dead, don't forget what I'm saying about the Masons. They are the scum.

[Jahudo]

Question for the class: Why can you guys only see Ecto as being an SK? Why hasn't the thought that Ecto could simply be mafia fake-claiming the role of one-shot vig entered your minds?

Killer's remorse looked genuine. I don't think mafia would be as concerned about finding theoretical SK early vs. SK hoping to thin down mafia numbers early.

Both claims could be real given they add up to ~full vig. McGriddle is at least potentially testable still, but Ecto is not.

I don't care who McGriddle targets tonight as long as he doesn't say it until it's been done. That should hopefully minimize scum interference.

[SerialClergyman]

*roll*

Goat implodes entire team from position of authority.

gg

[McGriddle]

I don't need to be prodded I was on yesterday.

I am all for the SC wagon. He was going to be my nightkill because I was pretty suspicious of him. I didn't have a lot of time to post my case against Red, but I still think SC is more likely scum. So my top 2 in order are SC and Red. If we lynch SC I will not kill red tonight though, that would not help me at all as if he knows I will kill him then that defeats the purpose of even trying beause I will be RB'd.

Unvote, Vote: SerialClergyman

Let's see what happens. I am fine with either of the 2, I just don't want to be the majority as I fear being mislynched on an accident

[McGriddle]

Oh and if he is not RB's then I will have killed an innocent townie.

[SerialClergyman]

I am all for the SC wagon. He was going to be my nightkill because I was pretty suspicious of him. I didn't have a lot of time to post my case against Red, but I still think SC is more likely scum. So my top 2 in order are SC and Red. If we lynch SC I will not kill red tonight though, that would not help me at all as if he knows I will kill him then that defeats the purpose of even trying beause I will be RB'd. Unvote, Vote: SerialClergyman Let's see what happens. I am fine with either of the 2, I just don't want to be the majority as I fear being mislynched on an accident

Just for those of you who are counting, Red and Griddle are my top suspects. If this doesn't greatly justify their deaths, I don't know what will.

Griddle - you know that it doesn't matteri f they know your target or not to roleblock you. Promise me that if I get lynched, you'll kill Red.

[SerialClergyman]

BY the way, I'm still rolling my eyes at those posts, Goat. I mean we all get things wrong and for all I know you're spot on about the masons, but I'm 98% sure you've just shat on the town from a great height. There's a 1-shot vig and a even night vig, and you think the MASONS are the ones that don't fit.

...

Lost for words.

[SerialClergyman]

In my opinion - you should stick to being surefooted

[Elmo]

I don't need to be prodded I was on yesterday.

Yea, I just figured it couldn't hurt 'cuz deadline is fairly close.

With respect to your shot, I think if you announce a single shot, then you'll be RBed if you pick scum and not otherwise. It's not certain scum have a RB, but it's pretty likely. The only solution(s) are for you to not announce your target, or to announce a set of targets which you choose between randomly.

I think whichever way you slice it, the masons absolutely need to talk a lot tonight, in great detail, and start trying to be really pro-town tomorrow. I'm pretty iffy about lynching one of them today, though.

[Incognito]

The *smart* thing to do would have been to follow my example and claim 1-shot as well McGriddle. When you read "even" in your PM, did it not bring any speculation into your head at all? Even after my claim?

Is this an odd-night vig claim? Also, why aren't you voting anyone right now? Deadline doesn't fall on New Years Eve, ya know...


McGriddle, assuming you're telling the truth about your role, I think it's best that you don't announce who you're going to be shooting Tonight. I think it's likely that the scum have some kind of PR to counteract the things that we've seen in this game (either a Roleblocker or maybe even some un-NKable Godfather of some sort or even a Mafia Doctor if you wanna get fancy). So really, announcing to the entire thread who you will be killing Tonight doesn't do us any favors but it does plenty of favors for the scum, imo, since they're the most informed of the current situation.

[iamausername]

Ecto + McGriddle, I find it very difficult to believe that their claims are fake, with how they've gone down. There is no way that McGriddle guessed Ecto was an odd night vig masquerading as a used one-shot vig to avoid the NK. It's slightly possible that Ecto is scum altering his claim to fit better with McGriddle's, but there was really no reason for him to claim when he did, as scum, and plenty of reasons not to, so I'm writing that possibility off too. Even if they don't get more shots, they're better than a single regular vig, because it's two semi-confirmable roles instead of one. Add masons and a rolecop on top of that, and I'm back to thinking pops is scum after all.

If pops is not scum, it leaves SC/Red/Incog/Elmo as the only possiblities, and I can't see a scumteam in there that makes sense. I don't see that the setup can support pops AND me+Jahudo telling the truth without overpowering the town. Furthermore, I think it's important to sort out which of us is town BEFORE we get to lylo. I think it could be disasterous if tomorrow comes and the three of us are all still around. Why are we assuming pops is town? Because Ecto claimed the only kill, so the scum kill must have been blocked? Isn't it perfectly plausible that scum targeted Patrick as well? I don't think anyone had trouble believing they did before Ecto claimed, after all.

If it must be SC or Red today, then I guess I'd pick SC, but I really don't think either of them are scum. I think it's pops + Goat + other (probably Incog).

Unvote, Vote: pops

I'll switch before deadline if I need to, but I really think we were on the right track when we were choosing between pops and Jahudo, and we should get back to that.

p.s. we can talk at night only, the table tennis was just a random bit of flavour, I don't know why Jahudo felt the need to mention it. Last night we made one post each in our QT giving a brief summary of our reads at the time. Jahudo was suspicious of pops, primarily, and also Goat, SC and Patrick. I was (and still am) really convinced that Red is town, not sure about anyone else, mostly suspicious of Incog, McGriddle and especially pops. Neither of us have been making much use of our ability to communicate in

public

, so it shouldn't come as any great surprise that we didn't do much with private communication either.

[Goatrevolt]

BY the way, I'm still rolling my eyes at those posts, Goat. I mean we all get things wrong and for all I know you're spot on about the masons, but I'm 98% sure you've just shat on the town from a great height. There's a 1-shot vig and a even night vig, and you think the MASONS are the ones that don't fit.

...

Lost for words.

Absolutely. How closely do you read Ecto's posts by the way?