Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[PranaDevil]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 9

Sando

- 3 -

mb53

,

PranaDevil

,

Fate

- (L-6)

mb53

- 1 -

Sando

- (L-8)

Zoiaum

- 1 -

Parama

- (L-8)

Players not voting:12keyblade, CryMeARiver, Dramonic, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Faraday, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Socrates, Zang, Zoiaum

##unvote
##vote: DGB

Putting words in my mouth? I didn't claim vig in the slightest (the "we" is town based).

And Zoaium is town. It would be a bad move to lynch him.

DGB is trying to up her towniness by even including herself in the "town" list of players. Rare is it I see a town player do that unless they're confirmed. DGB isn't confirmed at all.

[DrippingGoofball]

Sorry what question? You mean why did I choose 7 when I tend to think 5 or lower is the best option? That was because I was under the wrong impression of how the draft worked when I submitted my numbers. I realised later that the second number being chosen by someone else only matters if that person also chose the same first number.

It doesn't look like Sando had buddies helping him with the draft picks, and it seems like the scum was very coordinated.

Also, he was defending soras when it was very close to the lynch... a good little scum would have seen the light and hammered.

Also:

The scum having the universal backup would have made them much more willing to lynch Soras I think too.

His statement is correct, and possibly what happened. Yet, Sando wasn't keen on the soras wagon.

SANDO IS TOWN.

[DrippingGoofball]

##unvote
##vote: DGB

Putting words in my mouth? I didn't claim vig in the slightest (the "we" is town based).

Elli knocked some sense into me with that one. He pointed out something you posted earlier that I missed, like, your actual claim.

And Zoaium is town. It would be a bad move to lynch him.

Nope, he's scum.

DGB is trying to up her towniness by even including herself in the "town" list of players. Rare is it I see a town player do that unless they're confirmed. DGB isn't confirmed at all.

I've been doing that since before you were born. Last time I was questioned on this was in PacMan mafia back in 1983.

[DrippingGoofball]

OK now Dramonic in iso.

I was concerned that he was scum because of the way he pushed the soras wagon. It was (and still is) like a great big transcontinental Greyhound.

However, he was an early Porkens voter, and only unvoted to give people time to send in their actions.

This would be a pretty ballsy scum move.

[DrippingGoofball]

HAI GUYS

Faraday may be scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

I think the players NOT voting are important.

sorasgoof NON-voters:

Dramonic - 1 -

Ellibereth

- (L-11)
Fate - 2 -

Sando

, Socrates - (L-10)
Pomegranate - 3 -

Hoopla

,

Faraday

,

SerialClergyman

- (L-9)
Budja, manho, mb53

Porkens NON-voters:

CryMeARiver

,

Dramonic

(unvoted for actions to go through),

Faraday

,

Fate

,

Hoopla

,

Sando

,

Zang, Zoiaum

In bold are the players on NEITHER wagon.
In italics, players only off the Porkens wagon.

[PranaDevil]

And Zoaium is town. It would be a bad move to lynch him.

Nope, he's scum.

I'll take my word over yours thanks. He may need a slap upside the head for not participating more, but he's town.

DGB is trying to up her towniness by even including herself in the "town" list of players. Rare is it I see a town player do that unless they're confirmed. DGB isn't confirmed at all.

I've been doing that since before you were born. Last time I was questioned on this was in PacMan mafia back in 1983.[/quote]

Don't care how long you've been doing it, nobody but you (any possibly any cop/doc investigations) know whether you are town, thus there's no need for anyone unconfirmed to post themselves as blatant town, unless they're trying to get town who are just skimming on their side.

Plenty have already marked you as potential scum, that to me sealed the deal (along with claiming I was vig, as whether Elli pointed it out to you after the fact or not doesn't change that you posted it, and only backed off after being proven wrong thanks to my earlier post).

Oh, and Zoiaum may as well have been on the Porken's wagon, he already stated willingness to lynch, but due to the fact that (If I remember rightly) Porken's was on L-2 at the time, was unwilling to rush it so town could get roles in. So yeah... town.

[Hoopla]

If either of dramonic/Sando is scum, it really looks like it will be Sando when you compare their individual stances to the sorasgoof wagon.

##Vote: Sando

---

DGB, there is little point analysing the Porkens wagon when he was confirmed scum. I know there were several players around prepared to vote/hammer Porkens, but it was in the interest of the town to wait for actions to be sent in.

[Fate]

Porkens NON-voters:

CryMeARiver

,

Dramonic

(unvoted for actions to go through),

Faraday

,

Fate

,

Hoopla

,

Sando

,

Zang, Zoiaum

In bold are the players on NEITHER wagon.
In italics, players only off the Porkens wagon.

For the second time, I was on the Porkens wagon.

I was on the ***ing wagon before Pom even came out and said "nope, I tracked you to SC not Budja."

There, now I won't have to post this later if ever need a defense later in the game.

Also Prana, tell me more about this Zoiaum town read.

Hoopla makes sense for the first time this game... but THEN goes on to vote Sando anyway?

I don't like this wagon anymore.

##Unvote:

##Vote: Dramonic

I made you a promise, or I should have anyway Elli (you did vote Soras back D1 when I asked you to over dram right?)

[DrippingGoofball]

Yeah, the Porkens wagon, not super-informative overall.

Why Sando over Zoiaum?

[Fate]

That's what I'm saying, but Hoopla making that much of a slip is weird and iffy. Plus she isn't buddying up to me this game...(a good scum knows to stroke Fate's ego and have him on your side).

But she still needs to be the last scum lynched, hammered by me, in order for my revenge to be complete.

So let's vote Dram instead. And hope Pom has better info

[PranaDevil]

Also Prana, tell me more about this Zoiaum town read.

Role based. Saying no more until tomorrow when I propose a mass claim to get info from cop/doc as well, and have (one would hope) plenty of confirmed townies thanks to that.

We have better leads today (Sando/Dram/DGB/Hoopla) personally, and they're a much better direction to go in.

[DrippingGoofball]

Why Dram, exactly?

## vote Zoiaum

[Hoopla]

Yeah, the Porkens wagon, not super-informative overall.

Why Sando over Zoiaum?

If the last 3 scum are on different numbers (neighbourhoods), it's a smarter town play to eliminate entire neighbourhoods, because players in smaller groups have a higher chance of being scum (barring other information). For the sake of this experiment, lets assume the 3 scum have been randomly allocated to one of the 7 numbers with no overlap. This gives

each

group a ~43% chance of having a scum in it.

If we look at group 9 (Hoopla, Faraday, mb53, Zang). It has (like every other group) a 43% chance of having scum in it, and if so, each individual player has a 25% chance of being scum within it.

If we look at group 11 (Sando). This group also has the 43% chance of having scum in it, but as opposed to larger groups, only has one player within it, meaning it must be Sando.

The same principle applies to every other group, with the doubles being 43% and then 50% within it, while the triple group being 43% and then 33% within it. It makes sense to lynch from a smaller group, because I don't value my scum-Zoiaum read twice as much as Sando.

Of course, this all operates on the basis that scum have different numbers, but I am quite confident about this.

[Parama]

NEWSFLASH:
Sando is town.
Zoiaum is scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

If the last 3 scum are on different numbers (neighbourhoods),

I believe they'd be on different neighborhoods, yes.

Because players in smaller groups have a higher chance of being scum (barring other information).

No, in fact, it's the opposite. If we're all townies, and our choices random, or at least pseudo-random, then the neighborhoods should have very roughly the same number of players. VERY roughly. Let's suppose that we have 10,000 townies picking numbers, and the neighborhoods have exactly the same number of players.

Now the scum coordinates their numbers. Well guess what. They're ADDING to the neighborhoods, not subtracting.

For the sake of this experiment, lets assume the 3 scum have been randomly allocated to one of the 7 numbers with no overlap. This gives

each

group a ~43% chance of having a scum in it.

Now, this is correct; if per chance there exists some small neighborhoods, although this does not increase the probability that there is scum in them (see above, in fact, it's the opposite), if there is scum in them, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

The rest of your "math" is completely wrong.

[DrippingGoofball]

To simplify;

The large neighborhoods have a greater likelihood of having scum in them, than the small ones.

This cancels out the dubious benefits of shooting scum in the small barrels of the smaller groups.

[PranaDevil]

NEWSFLASH:
Sando is town.
Zoiaum is scum.

You're wrong, you're town, but you're wrong.

[Fate]

I believe PranaDevil.

Please wagon Dram.

P.S. Socrates is scum despite Hoopla's meta-defense of him.

[PranaDevil]

I propose a wagon of any of the following:

DGB, Sando, Dram.

[Parama]

NEWSFLASH:
Sando is town.
Zoiaum is scum.

You're wrong, you're town, but you're wrong.

You're the more wrong one.

Okay, look at it this way: There is almost certainly one scum between DGB and Zoiaum. Who is more likely scum between the two? Definitely Zoiaum.

[Fate]

Aim a little bit higher Parama, there are bigger fish to fry.

[PranaDevil]

NEWSFLASH:
Sando is town.
Zoiaum is scum.

You're wrong, you're town, but you're wrong.

You're the more wrong one.

Okay, look at it this way: There is almost certainly one scum between DGB and Zoiaum. Who is more likely scum between the two? Definitely Zoiaum.

Read post 911

[Parama]

Okay w/e

##unvote

[Ellibereth]

##Unvote

Gotcha Prana.

##Vote: Dram

DGB is still town though. 100%.