DrippingGoofball wrote:Yeah, the Porkens wagon, not super-informative overall.
Why Sando over Zoiaum?
If the last 3 scum are on different numbers (neighbourhoods), it's a smarter town play to eliminate entire neighbourhoods, because players in smaller groups have a higher chance of being scum (barring other information). For the sake of this experiment, lets assume the 3 scum have been randomly allocated to one of the 7 numbers with no overlap. This gives
each
group a ~43% chance of having a scum in it.
If we look at group 9 (Hoopla, Faraday, mb53, Zang). It has (like every other group) a 43% chance of having scum in it, and if so, each individual player has a 25% chance of being scum within it.
If we look at group 11 (Sando). This group also has the 43% chance of having scum in it, but as opposed to larger groups, only has one player within it, meaning it must be Sando.
The same principle applies to every other group, with the doubles being 43% and then 50% within it, while the triple group being 43% and then 33% within it. It makes sense to lynch from a smaller group, because I don't value my scum-Zoiaum read twice as much as Sando.
Of course, this all operates on the basis that scum have different numbers, but I am quite confident about this.