Open 215 - Gurgi EC8 - Game Show Mafia, Over

[farside22]

So you

are

saying that we shouldn't lynch because we might mislynch? I'm saying that lynch

or

mislynch we will have more useful information for dealing with whatever may occur during the night or tomorrow. As it is, we are headed towards day 2 with extremely weak suspicions and very little to hold anyone to.

What type of information do you suspect will occur with a mislynch? This to me isn't maybe I will hit scum. I'm expecting a mislynch at this point.
Worse case with voting is we hit a power role and out a weak cop. Oh good we just helped the scum more on who to target. I would like to keep the scum uninformed thanks very much.

[Cirno]

We would gain the same information we would gain from a mislynch in any other game. We get votes and reasoning to analyze, we get a flip, and we get a chance to kill scum. We would have a opportunity to form a better opinion of each player than 'I would vote this player because they aren't contributing'. People will actually be forced to voice their opinion and explain where they stand and why.

Why exactly do you believe we are more likely to mislynch in this game than any other game? Yes, scum may learn something from it, but so will

town

. It is more important for town to gain information than to prevent scum from doing so.

[farside22]

We would gain the same information we would gain from a mislynch in any other game. We get votes and reasoning to analyze, we get a flip, and we get a chance to kill scum. We would have a opportunity to form a better opinion of each player than 'I would vote this player because they aren't contributing'. People will actually be forced to voice their opinion and explain where they stand and why.

Why exactly do you believe we are more likely to mislynch in this game than any other game? Yes, scum may learn something from it, but so will

town

. It is more important for town to gain information than to prevent scum from doing so.

Difference with most games I at least have a hope I will hit scum. This one no such hope is in me. But knock yourself out I'm not going to agree and will just point to my prediction for the remaining part of the day.

I notice no one else seems to have formed an oppinion on the subject.

[Cirno]

But why don't you have any hope in this game? This is a pretty small game, so the odds are actually higher than most other games.

[farside22]

But why don't you have any hope in this game? This is a pretty small game, so the odds are actually higher than most other games.

Stupid questions. Scum gets to L-1 what do you think they will claim?
Would you hammer said person after the claim?

[SensFan]

I am strongly against a lynch today, since I think any chance of losing tonight is unacceptable. The only way I would think a lynch makes sense is if we massclaimed and there was only 1 Cop. But not only is it very likely we have multiples, but the Scum might also claim Cop. So we'll almost certainly have a chance of losing tonight if we lynch. Therefore, I'd rather not risk the game that we can blindly lynch correctly.

Vote: No Lynch

[Cirno]

Even if you want a no lynch, what is the point in doing it right now?

[SensFan]

The deadline's in two days anyways. I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and voting NL.

[Cirno]

Why did you choose wolf to claim first?

[SensFan]

He's the person I was most comfortable assuming was pro-Town, other than myself.

Questions for Cirno I expect answers to:
Assuming a random lynch today (no claim), what are the odds we lose tonight?
Are you willing to lynch a claimed Weak Cop today?
Assuming that Scum A claimed a target before ScumB was picked as a target, how likely do you think it is that ScumA chose to claim ScumB to 'investigate'?
Why did you pick to investigate who you did?

[SensFan]

I need hardly mention that I expect no one else to comment on or discuss the questions until she has answered. I will be willing, of course, to explain the reasoning behind them after they have been answered.

[Cirno]

Why did you feel comfortable assuming he was pro-town?

In response to your questions: I don't feel like doing math. I am perfectly willing to lynch a claimed cop. I'm not going to bother with speculation. I didn't get to pick anyone to investigate, as you should know considering you were the one who assigned me my target.

Now, the reasoning behind those questions?

[SensFan]

Why did you feel comfortable assuming he was pro-town?

I don't feel comfortable assuming he's pro-Town. We had to pick SOMEONE that, in our opinion, was most likely to be pro-Town. Other than myself, wolf looked rather pro-Town, and already had some popular support. As I trust you can tell, my biggest priority was getting the process moving as soon as possible.

I don't feel like doing math.

This is bad. You shouldn't be advocating a path that involves a possible N1 loss if you don't even (apparently) have a ballpark figure for how likely that is, let alone exact numbers.

I am perfectly willing to lynch a claimed cop.

That's rather silly, probably stupid, but at least supports your idea of lynching.

I'm not going to bother with speculation.

Should we also not bother speculating who are and are not Scum?

I didn't get to pick anyone to investigate, as you should know considering you were the one who assigned me my target.

Good answer. I would have lynched you on the spot had you fabricated a reason.

Now, the reasoning behind those questions?

Done.

[SensFan]

So, I just checked that link.
It links to a postgame post in a game in which you didn't play. It was also an Open set-up that had no Cop.

What the hell?

[Cirno]

I don't feel comfortable assuming he's pro-Town

He's the person I was most comfortable assuming was pro-Town

I don't need to do math, because thinking for a few seconds tells me that it is unlikely for us to lose night 1, lynch or no lynch. And again, I would rather lynch and gain information than go in relatively blind.

I actually think it is silly when people change their reads solely on a claim. Cirno is not known to be very smart though.

I'm saying I am not going to bother speculating on whether or not scum choose to investigate one another with absolutely nothing to go on.

Why in the world would anyone who didn't even have a say in who they investigate even try to give a reason?

Also, I most definitely did play in that game. I linked that post because it illustrates rather hilariously how much faith i put into claims.


Anyone else around or is everyone still v/la? Come chat with me a bit.

[farside22]

I don't remember anyone claiming cop in that game. I remember someone claiming doc and that was Kmd who was the doc Cirno

[SensFan]

You absolutely did not play in that game. I just read the whole fucking thread.

[farside22]

You absolutely did not play in that game. I just read the whole fucking thread.

Yes she did. She's an alt.

[SensFan]

...is anyone going to bother telling who she's claiming to be, so I can tell why I was linked to that game in response to asking if she would lynched a claimed WC?

[farside22]

...is anyone going to bother telling who she's claiming to be, so I can tell why I was linked to that game in response to asking if she would lynched a claimed WC?

She asked me not to tell. I will leave it up to her. Though why she would share a link with her other name in there makes little sense to me.

[SensFan]

The only one I can think of that would be at all relevant is if she turns out to be the complete idiot that wanted to lynch the claimed Doc in an open set-up. And that proves nothing, other than said idiocy.

[wolframnhart]

She asked me not to tell. I will leave it up to her. Though why she would share a link with her other name in there makes little sense to me.

She asked you not to tell? When?

[Cirno]

Sensfan, I already explained why I linked it. Please calm down and use the little scroll wheel on your mouse.

@wolf: In an ongoing game.

[wolframnhart]

That was more of a question to Farside, but i will let it pass, will also be trying to find this ongoing game.

[Cirno]

@wolf: What is your opinion of Farside and Sensfan?