Mini 956: The Quayside (Game Over)

[RedCoyote]

What would you consider to be something that might actively hurt the town's chances at winning on a Day 1 that would come from someone you believe is more likely to be anti-town than scummy?

An example that tends to stick out in my mind is CSL in Caught in the Crossfire. Throughout the day there was nothing really being produced, and towards the end he just became more and more hostile, emotional, and erratic. That's a strain on the town, and one that I wouldn't feel comfortable giving a pass. I think a player like that would hurt the town's chances at victory if left in the game for an extended period of time.

I don't subscribe to this viewpoint because I've seen too many cases particularly in Newbie Games where I see a player who's being attacked, I think that player is being attacked for things that are anti-town but not scummy, and I end up writing the player off as town and begin focusing my efforts on the other people in the game. Clearing that one player as town would then allow me to narrow the pool of suspects by one less player, and by doing so I've therefore increased my chances of hitting scum while keeping the vote and opinion of someone who's likely town alive and kicking to be used against scum assuming I'm right about the player in question. That's pretty important, no?

I'd say that Newbie Games are a different animal altogether, but yes, I get where you're coming from. Do you think that's happening here?

Also, what do you mean by your comments that you think Elmo is doing things just to be cute?

"How can I be scum when I post the cookie monster! "

"Goat is prolly town"

"After consulting a dictionary... "

Not that any of this is necessarily bad, actually I think it lightens the mood a little bit, but not when it's coupled with zero substance. I just don't assume people are town because of their demeanor.

I certainly wouldn't consider lynching SC at this time as I've generally gotten a good feeling about him for a good portion of the game so far.

Is there something specific you can point to? I understand a disagreement, but to the point where you wouldn't even consider lynching him? That's fairly strong support. Is it just because of pops?

---

Because for me, the question of whether I'd be willing to lynch someone I thought was anti-town but not particularly scummy would be pretty centrally dependant on whether I thought there were other players who were particularly scummy.

For sure. I made that clear when I asked him, because you should always give deference to lynching the scummy player.

Not directed at me, I know, but I'd say a good place to start is looking for the people who aren't saying things like this.

Cute. Assuming that, then why not verbalize it?

---

Not directly.. I'm mostly checking my perception of how much people are posting.

And your perception is? Do you have any A to go with your I?

---

Goat and McGriddle have both admitted to a lack of justification (though promised some to come in the future); Elmo and SC have largely been silent on the matter since their vote.

I wonder if it's a coincidence that I've been none too happy with this group, to varying degrees.

[Hoopla]

Day 1, Vote Count #11

With twelve alive, it takes

7

votes to lynch. Deadline is schedueled for 7:00AM GMT, April 26th <Countdown>.

NabakovNabakov

-

5

(Elmo, Goatrevolt, SerialClergyman, iamausername, McGriddle)

popsofctown

-

2

(Incognito, Jahudo)

McGriddle

-

2

(NabakovNabakov, RedCoyote)

Goatrevolt

-

1

(Patrick)

SerialClergyman

-

1

(popsofctown)

Not Voting

-

1

(Ectomancer)

[Goatrevolt]

Elmo is town because he was the first to jump on Nabscum when Nab decided to push McGriddle. That's really unlikely to be busing.

RC: Get over it. You're not happy with me because I bothered to try to get a read on you after you said you didn't find me scummy but wrote 3 paragraphs on what was wrong with my case anyway. Look, I understand your mindset. Things seem bigger and badder when they involve you personally, but I asked you a few questions and you're blowing it way out of proportion into some sort of theory that I'm overdefense/paranoid and couldn't handle you tearing apart my case. Nobody else feels the same way as you do about this. I think that's an indicator that you're overreacting because it involves you personally and thus not giving it an honest appraisal. Considering I am called overdefensive in almost every game of mafia I've ever played and considering Nabakov already tried to tear apart that exact same aspect of my case earlier in the game, you were really jumping at nothing.

At any rate, my case on Nab will hopefully come tomorrow, and worst case Tuesday, so hang tight.

[RedCoyote]

RC: Get over it. You're not happy with me because I bothered to try to get a read on you after you said you didn't find me scummy but wrote 3 paragraphs on what was wrong with my case anyway.

Does it really bother you that much that I'm not throwing myself at the marvelous Goatrevolt? You ask a lot of questions. Great. You're getting people riled up. Awesome. I'm not going to be browbeat into this mindset that Goat must be town because of all this activity, and I'm certainly not going to change my mind over a quote like, "Nobody else feels the same way as you do". That's the very definition of an appeal to popularity.

As I recall, the last time you twisted my arm into reading you as a townie, you came up as scum, so this post definitely isn't helping things.

[popsofctown]

Yes, I'm bothered.

You two are beating around bushes. What are you getting at?

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, I'm bothered.

You two are beating around bushes. What are you getting at?

I've asked him what's with the non-vote. You may direct your frustration at his stalling to him. His lack of a serious vote while still following the game closely enough to respond to me a couple of times pretty quickly bothers me.

I agree with Goat's views on just about everything except his view of myself.

I disagree with Goat on almost all of his methods, including constantly looking for a buddy of Nab before Nab's flip and the upcoming case, which will be done primarily to look like Goat has some substance rather than do anything convincing regarding Nab. In my experience, D1 is betterp layed on gut than on confirmation-biased paragraphs of language analysis. I'd prefer to see a lynch. Also - I'd lynch any one of Jahudo, Red and Nab, at least.

[SerialClergyman]

Also, CSL is a policy lynch wherever he played. I had the pleasure of replacing his self-voted near-confessed scum recently.

[popsofctown]

who brought up CSL?

[Patrick]

Patrick, where's your scumlist at at the moment?

I'll give my worldview since I'm thinking about it. Nabakov is my best choice for scum atm, but with this day cooking nicely I'm still not in a rush to put him at lynch-1. Jahudo is the other main person I'm getting scummy vibes from -- I could see him as scum with or without Nabakov. RedCoyote I've bad a few bad vibes from but probably need to reread him since I've been glossing over some of his posts recently. On one or two occasions I've thought he may be using his thing with Goat to look active and avoid more important stuff, but again I'll really need to reread him to see if that's justified or if my feeling about him is really just that I disagree with alot of what he's saying. I saw a possible connection to NabakovNabakov too, but want to avoid building too much of my view of this game around the idea that Nabakov is going to flip scum.

Incognito is an interesting case, in that there's not alot wrong with his posts but I haven't had the strong protown vibe that some people have been getting either. I was mildly concerned that his vote and play around pops seemed inconsistent with protown Incognito who finds pops scummy; for example when pops made a post witih probably more analytical content than all his others put together, Incognito seemed to ignore it other than to make a passing comment about not really buying the cases against you. His answer to my question makes me feel better about him, and after reading pop's post again I can see what Incognito is saying about it. He also won the small bonus cookie by mentioning his fears of Jahudo voting pops in his answer, so I'm gonna say slightly town on him. I don't want to write him off though.

Serial, Elmo and Goat I have in my town column. Aside from that, no strong views on other players; iamausername I have very little read on, and the others are pretty neutral.

This is from memory, but I'm pretty happy with it atm. My vote on Goat has no particular relevance, so I might as well

Unvote

.

To respond to iamausername, no, there was no particular issue I wanted your opinion of, I just don't feel like I have much of a read on you at all. Was your comment on McGriddle making it up as he goes along meant in a jokey way, or as an expression of suspicion?

[McGriddle]

CSL was brought up by RedCoyote at the beginning at this page.

@ mod: I will be kinda V/LA for the next few days, have a lot of tests coming up but I will try to find time between studying to post

[Ectomancer]

Yes, I'm bothered.

You two are beating around bushes. What are you getting at?

He's clearly nervous. Why is he nervous?

[Ectomancer]

post count has always been a terrible metric of actual contribution.

What do you think of iamausername & Jahudo's level of contribution?

I feel like Jahudo's contribution has been decent, but there might be some bias there considering that most of the things he has posted have somehow involved me or my case on McGriddle. I think username's contribution has been subpar, but I would rank it close to that of McGriddle or SC. On the other hand, I think RedCoyote has had a significant impact on the game with a smaller number of longer posts. My problem with post-count isn't even so much one of quantity over quality as it simply being a poor metric even for measuring quantity. It can give just as much weight to 1 word as it does to 1000.

You haven't mentioned anything about what your rainbow has told you.Care to share?

vote Elmo

on the Adel syndrome scum tell. Adel loves posting charts and statistics. You know when Adel is town because those charts and statistics

are actually of use

. When scum, the quality and pertinence drops dramatically. Primarily it is busy work (and with flashy colors!) made to look like contribution, from the player who has made none.

SC, I'll ride till the last day without placing a vote if I feel it doesn't belong somewhere. I do appreciate you calling attention to your anxiety though.

[iamausername]

username has provided the most thorough justification of his vote in 354.

I'm totally gonna post an actual thorough justification for my vote in 354 so it looks like NabNab is psychic.

Not directed at me, I know, but I'd say a good place to start is looking for the people who aren't saying things like this.

Cute. Assuming that, then why not verbalize it?

I don't understand the question. What is the "it" in this question referring to, if not the very thing that I am verbalising right there, in the post that you quoted?

Was your comment on McGriddle making it up as he goes along meant in a jokey way, or as an expression of suspicion?

Well, I'm somewhat serious about the fact that McGriddle seems to be making it up as he goes along, I just don't think it's particularly suspicious. What I'm seeing is a town McGriddle who earnestly believes that NabNab is scum, but is having a hard time figuring out exactly why, and since no one else is helping him out much on that front, he's just having to throw whatever he can think of out there.

I disagree with Goat on almost all of his methods, including constantly looking for a buddy of Nab before Nab's flip and the upcoming case, which will be done primarily to look like Goat has some substance rather than do anything convincing regarding Nab.

If a town player believes they have caught scum, and enough of the town agrees that that scum looks to be heading for the lynch, then what exactly are they supposed to while waiting for someone to get around to dropping the hammer?

I mean, yeah, Goat posting a more detailed case isn't going to convince people because they're already convinced. And yeah, Elmo's pretty activity charts are just posting for the sake of posting. So is my posting a stream of shallow one-liners in response to anything that happens to have my name in it.

So?

[Goatrevolt]

Does it really bother you that much that I'm not throwing myself at the marvelous Goatrevolt? You ask a lot of questions. Great. You're getting people riled up. Awesome. I'm not going to be browbeat into this mindset that Goat must be town because of all this activity, and I'm certainly not going to change my mind over a quote like, "Nobody else feels the same way as you do". That's the very definition of an appeal to popularity.

Yes it does. The marvelous Goatrevolt requires constant groveling.

Actually the reason I even bothered to respond to that is because you seem to be ignoring Nab or thinking of him as town at least partially because I'm on the wagon and you incorrectly believe me to be scum. I'm telling you that you're wrong about me and probably wrong about Nabakov as well.

As I recall, the last time you twisted my arm into reading you as a townie, you came up as scum, so this post definitely isn't helping things.

Last time you had actually legitimate points against me regarding my stance on Budja, my scum buddy, but you got too caught up in the point about me lurking, which I was able to fairly easily twist in my favor. Here, you don't really have anything legitimate at all, and I haven't twisted your arm either. I think you are the one who is paranoid that I'm scum.

I disagree with Goat on almost all of his methods, including constantly looking for a buddy of Nab before Nab's flip and the upcoming case, which will be done primarily to look like Goat has some substance rather than do anything convincing regarding Nab. In my experience, D1 is betterp layed on gut than on confirmation-biased paragraphs of language analysis. I'd prefer to see a lynch. Also - I'd lynch any one of Jahudo, Red and Nab, at least.

1. Why did you even bring this up at all? You randomly decide to just analyze my play...?
2. There's no problem in looking for a buddy for Nab. It's not relevant today, but I might not be around tomorrow, so I wanted to get out my notes on Nabakov interactions today. If he's town, then you can just ignore it all. If he's scum, then you can refer back to it. No downside, plenty of upside. Where's the disconnect?
3. The purpose of my casing Nabakov is to get the last 2 votes. It has nothing to do with me trying to save face by having a case. I'm pretty sure he's going to be scum, and in the case he's not, I could always go back and point out a case later if someone asked, so that's hardly a reason.



@Patrick: I'm pretty sure RedCoyote is town. I'd have to go back and find exactly what they were, but he dropped a few things that struck me as definite town tells.

[Elmo]

vote Elmo on the Adel syndrome scum tell.

Problem: I'm not Adel?

[Elmo]

And your perception is? Do you have any A to go with your I?

I thought SC and Ecto were posting less than they are, I thought you were posting more. I knew Jah / iam weren't posting much, but I wasn't sure how much.

I had the impression that a bunch of people joining the NabNab wagon hadn't been posting much, it turns out that's not true of SC but it is true of iam and McG (albeit he's a bit V/LA). Also, the bottom four people by posts are all voting different people, I had an inkling something like that was the case. I also distinctly remember popsofctown being really lurky, the fact he's posting so frequently (I looked, a lot of it isn't fluff) stands out for me - I'd check his previous games if I were more enterprising. I also find it interesting that no-one in the bottom 4 is being voted, tho not really sure what to make of it.. not happy that Jahudo doesn't seem to be getting any heat at this point.

I personally find 236 helpful 'cuz activity is important and there's no way to look at it other than actually counting posts. The rainbow was partly just an experiment, partly to try and quantify some beliefs I had.

What I'm now interested in is the contrast between RedCoyote's treatment of me and iam/Jahudo. Hrm.

[Incognito]

not happy that Jahudo doesn't seem to be getting any heat at this point.

Me too.

unvote
vote: Jahudo

I'll catch up with the other stuff a little later. Gotta sit down and study for a bit.

[popsofctown]

The heat on Elmo is bleches and smeckles. Elmo had no content to start out with, then she suddenly posts a large Info post, specifically stating why she did so and telling everyone all he could draw from it. (which wasn't much. I looked at the rainbow and couldn't draw anything either, yet at the same time was optimistic that I could. Thus I could understand someone constructing it but then not having a Golden Ticket post about how it leads to scum. And really if he went to the trouble to construct that you know he has to post it, whether or not she could figure out anything.

Thing is, Elmo was posting very little content per day to begin with. Why is he suddenly getting heat for posting info? It's not negative analysis, it's just not analysis.

The accusation that post count is a useless statistic is wrong. I've been accused of not putting out enough content this game. Even if it weren't so, it'd be relevant, it's always a decent barometer of various activity levels and a check for who is flying under the radar (like Jahudo).



If Elmo was under any heat for lurking to a lesser extent than IAU and Jahudo, then I'd see the IioA argument, but as-is it's misapplied.

What's the case on Jahudo, Incognito? I've posted my own gripes about him going after me in a way I felt weak, and know he's lurking, is there anything else I could be inspired with?

[Incognito]

@Ectomancer:

Can you explain your Elmo-vote a bit more? You mentioned that posting charts and graphics seems to be a tell that shows when

Adel

is scum, but do you think that same tell applies to all players?

Also, I'm not sure I understand the spat that's going on between you and SC as of late. Are you reading him as scummy too?

I've responded this way to absurd wagons before, except that was a case where a player posted a ridiculously thorough case rather than a ridiculously sparse one.

I didn't read the whole case but knowing Mastin, I'd hazard a guess that about 90% of what he wrote wasn't even relevant and maybe that's why you decided it wasn't worth the response?

Furthermore I disagree with whoever said that pops/Jahudo don't fit as scum together. I think they definitely can. Jahudo jumping on him for a reason that wasn't very good long after the wagon died out doesn't suggest that pops is town if Jahudo is scum.

I think you might be referring to my comment where I mentioned that Jahudo's vote on pops was making me second guess myself about pops' alignment. Considering the fact that wagons were brewing on other players at the time that Jahudo decided to vote pops, do you really think it would make sense for a Jahudo-scum to attempt to bus his hypo-buddy there? What would it achieve?

I'd say that Newbie Games are a different animal altogether, but yes, I get where you're coming from. Do you think that's happening here?

Nope, I think the quality of players in this game wouldn't allow something like that to happen here. I was bringing up the Newbie example more for theoretical discussion. I think the original point I was trying to make about NabNab's Elmo comment got lost in translation somewhere through all of this and that is that I think scum is more likely than town to claim that a person acting in an anti-town way is "suspicious". That's why I didn't like NabNab's comment there.

As for your question on my SerialClergyman read, no, there's nothing too specific that I can point to. I thought he made a pretty good turnaround from the stuff I originally had an issue with on page 2 of the thread - his explanation for why he didn't comment on that stuff made sense. Also, I think the scum hunting that he has put forth doesn't look forced or fake, and I think that NabNab or Jahudo are just more likely to be scum than SC at this time, so I'd prefer lynching one of them. Do note that I said that with respect to the information that we've learned so far

Today

. If I'm still alive and more info crops up at a later time, I might change my mind on him, obv.

[Incognito]

@pops:

Right now, I'm voting Jahudo because yes, I do think he's been a bit lurky so far, and I've just been getting a backgroundsy type of feel from his posting. I don't know how to elaborate it any better than that - he's been asking questions and stuff yes, but the impression that I've been getting is that he's just asking them for the sake of asking them; it just doesn't feel genuine to me. Also there was the issue I brought up about his turnaround on McGriddle which he did try and explain, but I still just can't shake my initial feeling about it.

[Ectomancer]

@Ectomancer:

Can you explain your Elmo-vote a bit more? You mentioned that posting charts and graphics seems to be a tell that shows when

Adel

is scum, but do you think that same tell applies to all players?

<grinds his teeth> Where in the

hell

did I say posting graphs and charts makes Adel scum? Adel is mentioned for those who know Adel (which is 90% of you) to understand

EXACTLY

what I mean. Charts and graphs have nothing to do with being scum. They can be useful. But making

busy

charts and graphs that let you stick around because people think you are "working" is what makes someone scum. It is just doubly bad when Elmo hasn't made a contribution and puts this up as his offering of effort.
It demonstrates a lack of real analysis.
I love Pops comment "He wasn't doing anything before, so why should he start now?" A -1 to Pops.
Yeah Pops, he wasn't doing anything, and when it finally was time to offer up his insights, did we get them? No, we got a player post count. A freaking player post count. And the result? "Some people posted more than I thought, some people posted less". Wow. I'm shocked at that result.
-1 to Nab for attempting to act as though it was a legitimate work with his "post count <> contribution" comment. Really? We had no clue that what people say in their posts actually matter. Contact Mafia News because we have a breaking story in this game!

So when its all said and done, we have, what? What do we have people? A conversation designed to be nothing more than a conversation. We're past the first couple pages if you hadn't noticed.

[Ectomancer]

@Incognito - I took a poll that asked how people begin their basis in mafia. It seems the majority said they start out with the assumption that everyone is town and then find scum. I start out with the assumption that you are scum until proven otherwise. SC doesn't get into trusted status just because he posted my alignment. His action doesn't jive with his statement either when he appears concerned about a non-placed vote from that player. So my concern with him is, why? It wasn't an item I would expect him to be focused on. It didn't make sense in context to me for that to be his concern. It seemed almost a contradiction.

[Elmo]

But making

busy

charts and graphs that let you stick around because people think you are "working" is what makes someone scum.

Maybe you could take a poll of who thought I was working really hard based on that post.

It is just doubly bad when Elmo hasn't made a contribution and puts this up as his offering of effort.

It's, uh, not. I did it because I wanted to look at activity, then I posted it because there's no reason not to. There's nothing that can reasonably be interpreted as me going OMG HERE'S SOME AWESOME ANALYSIS, I AM TOTALLY TOWN .

[SerialClergyman]

So my concern with him is, why? It wasn't an item I would expect him to be focused on. It didn't make sense in context to me for that to be his concern. It seemed almost a contradiction.

Rubbish. I read you as town on one post. If you do scummy things, that read will deteriorate. Sitting there doing nothing without a vote on anyone counts as a scummy thing. (Patrick can take note of this too.)

And aside from being a possible scumtell, no matter what your alignment it's DEFINITELY useless.

[RedCoyote]

In my experience, D1 is betterp layed on gut than on confirmation-biased paragraphs of language analysis. I'd prefer to see a lynch. Also - I'd lynch any one of Jahudo, Red and Nab, at least.

Sometimes it's like I feel very distant from you, but other times I think you're right on the nose. I obviously don't agree with your conclusion, but you're right about how the D1 lynch should go. From where I'm standing, McGriddle, Elmo, or Goat should eat the first lynch.

---

I don't understand the question. What is the "it" in this question referring to, if not the very thing that I am verbalising right there, in the post that you quoted?

Oh, no, I'm referring to Elmo, not you. Why didn't Elmo verbalize it? Why didn't Elmo call me out for it, assuming he even agrees with it, or call someone else out for something else?

What I'm seeing is a town McGriddle who earnestly believes that NabNab is scum, but is having a hard time figuring out exactly why, and since no one else is helping him out much on that front, he's just having to throw whatever he can think of out there.

And there's no self-interest involved?

Maybe it's because I don't even really get where the NabNab suspicion is coming from that I'm not able to take it seriously. The only thing I've been able to understand so far is the criticism of Elmo's reactivity while asking for Elmo to react. I think that's pretty weak argument against NabNab, and I otherwise haven't seen anything with any real meat on it.

---

Actually the reason I even bothered to respond to that is because you seem to be ignoring Nab or thinking of him as town at least partially because I'm on the wagon and you incorrectly believe me to be scum. I'm telling you that you're wrong about me and probably wrong about Nabakov as well.

SC is really more prescient than I'm giving him credit for, because this is exactly what he was talking about. Contrast this quote with Pat's post 260, and you'll see the difference I'm talking about. It's like you're already on D4 in your head, and you have this game all wrapped up in a neat little package. What if NabNab flips town? Does that sink the Jahudo/pops thing? Does that sink your read on me or anyone else?

No, I don't think I've seen anything worthwhile on NabNab, and I don't think I'll be joining the wagon at this juncture. I think few people have taken McGriddle seriously, and ironically, I think by letting him off, giving him a pass, that's giving him less credit than by holding him more accountable. I'm comfortable with my vote, and my positions, and I'm not going to be muscled into this idea that Goat is right because he's in the "popular" group. Goat is right because his ideas are popular, and they're popular because they're right... and round and round we go.

Here, you don't really have anything legitimate at all, and I haven't twisted your arm either. I think you are the one who is paranoid that I'm scum.

Please! Everytime I have the audacity to question you I get the third degree. You play ignorant when I make a few observations toward your behavior, and then I get told that I should get in line with what's "popular"?

---

What I'm now interested in is the contrast between RedCoyote's treatment of me and iam/Jahudo. Hrm.

While I like this post, I still don't like the fact that it had to be dragged out of you. Maybe it is just your playstyle.

iamausername is in a completely different plane. We've got him criticizing me, and others, in a clear, consistent matter. You, on the other hand, make posts like, "This is a solid post", "Goat is prolly town", and I have no idea what direction you're going in and what gives you these interpretations.

Jahudo has also been fairly clear, although I think he's been a little more mobile than iamausername has been. Still, I can point to a number of his posts and show you how he's explained himself and how he's gotten to his conclusions.

A better player to contrast you with would be McGriddle at this point in the game.

---

Why is he suddenly getting heat for posting info? It's not negative analysis, it's just not analysis.

That's the thing though. Why wasn't there any analysis? Why is Elmo afraid to put himself out there? I'm glad he got something out of it, but, again, it was only because it was forced out of him.

---

I love Pops comment "He wasn't doing anything before, so why should he start now?" A -1 to Pops.
Yeah Pops, he wasn't doing anything, and when it finally was time to offer up his insights, did we get them? No, we got a player post count. A freaking player post count. And the result? "Some people posted more than I thought, some people posted less". Wow. I'm shocked at that result.

Agreed.

---

There's nothing that can reasonably be interpreted as me going OMG HERE'S SOME AWESOME ANALYSIS, I AM TOTALLY TOWN 8) 8).

This is wrong just by virtue of the fact that you said you had an opinion about it, but you declined to give it to us.