Mini 956: The Quayside (Game Over)

[Incognito]

Of course. I don't subscribe NabNab's point of view that Elmo is acting in "bad form" (I'd say he's probably just trying to be cute), but I'd definitely be willing to lynch someone on the first day who I thought was actively hurting the town's chances at victory, because that's the best time to do so.

What would you consider to be something that might actively hurt the town's chances at winning on a Day 1 that would come from someone you believe is more likely to be anti-town than scummy?

I don't subscribe to this viewpoint because I've seen too many cases particularly in Newbie Games where I see a player who's being attacked, I think that player is being attacked for things that are anti-town but not scummy, and I end up writing the player off as town and begin focusing my efforts on the other people in the game. Clearing that one player as town would then allow me to narrow the pool of suspects by one less player, and by doing so I've therefore increased my chances of hitting scum while keeping the vote and opinion of someone who's likely town alive and kicking to be used against scum assuming I'm right about the player in question. That's pretty important, no?

Also, what do you mean by your comments that you think Elmo is doing things just to be cute?

@Ectomancer:

I see. I thought your town read of him might have stemmed from his post #179 since your comment about him being town followed only directly

after

that. Jahudo made comments about the (near-)universal town stuff on you a page earlier.

-~-~

I guess the thing that bothered me about Jahudo's #179 wasn't only the switch in opinion(s); it was also just the way it was done. I made a post asking for McGriddle to link to the popsofctown-game that he kept talking about and then only minutes later Jahudo mentioned the following:

Okay, I probably should have asked for the game from the start. Its' RedCoyote's Precision Mafia right? That had pops, mcgriddle and command points. The setup wasn't broken to start and based on the first few pages pops was taking more of a lead to discuss setup strategy, though that's still not comparable to scumhunting leader. But I can see McGriddle's side of the issue now.

I don't think I have any problem with McGriddle's play now.

The first part where he seems to imply that he didn't know what game it was all along just doesn't seem genuine to me. Considering the fact that my post was made at 5:18 my time and Jahudo's post was made less than 20 minutes after it, I just don't see how he could have

a)

found the game,

b)

analyzed it to see if he could figure out what McGriddle was talking about, and then

c)

change his opinion of him in such a short timeframe. Jahudo, when did you first figure out what game it was McG was referring to?

[Jahudo]

@Incog: Thursday after McGriddle mentioned it was a game with "command points", so I did a quick msutils.net search and found the game. I had been previously going between them to try and find out if someone's memory was bad, or if they were providing bad information.

It wasn't until McGriddle explained why the game was broken that I decided to go searching for it and confirm that point myself. That helped me see that both were right, in a way. Pops was a leader but it was under different circumstances (ie: pro-active on setup strategy is different than pro-active on scumhunting).

-----------------

A more correct answer would have been that I entertain myself and laugh at my own jokes and become ever so pleased with myself.

Alright, that does sound true actually. If its for fun, I can see you doing it as any alignment. But that doesn't mean there isn't a way to pick out town and scum motivations through your fluffposting. I had a bad feeling that you had put up your goatrevolt image to re-focus his case on you trying to have fun, which he can't fault you for.

But if you are town, maybe there's no logical reason to stop you from doing that same thing if you think its harmless.

Instead of developing a patterned model for my play, he went on an extremely WIFOMy angle of logic and said "last time he posted fluff we thought he was scum and he was actually town, so this time it means he's town... BUT THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUUUUUN".

I keep checking the thread, seeing town, not posting, and then LoL tells me a match has been found, but my teammate picked Katarina so it's autoloss anyway.

What?

[Ectomancer]

@Ectomancer:

I see. I thought your town read of him might have stemmed from his post #179 since your comment about him being town followed only directly

after

that. Jahudo made comments about the (near-)universal town stuff on you a page earlier.

See #204. When I read and post, if I see something worth commenting on, I do it, then go back and start reading where I left off, even though the game might have already progressed a couple pages.
When I got to #179, my bias was already set. I see nothing wrong with Jahudo's deciding to get to the root data rather than speculate and then stating what he found. I didnt read the game personally. I'm still inclined to comment on what has been said about it here without looking for it, so why would it surprise me for Jahudo to do so intially?
Also, given the description of the game, whatever vehicle Pops used there, even if setup speculation, then McGriddle could reasonably expect him to find a vehicle to take an active role in this game as well.
I don't see the todo about Jahudo or McGriddle.

[popsofctown]

@popsofctown:

Why is your vote still on Goatrevolt?

unvote, vote Serial Clergyman

This is actually one of those things where I suddenly remembered while I was in bed that night, but was too tired to get up. I thought "Wait. When I longposted I forgot to put my Serial Clergyman vote at the beginning or the end. Ack".

[Patrick]

The observation that suspicion is relative would have bearing in an "unvote; vote..." context. But like I said, when you are only talking about an unvote, the only factor involved is suspicion of the player being unvoted. When Germany moves troops from the Western to the Eastern front, it's because they consider Russia a larger threat than France. But when Russia moves troops from the front, it's because they don't want to fight any more.

Well, I see your vote as representing your world-view. Unvoting to me means that you're no longer confident that your current vote is the best one and you want to re-evaluate other suspects (which is roughly what he said).

I'm gonna need you to elaborate on this a bit more. Because I got the same feel Patrick did in his #196 about Jahudo's post #179, so it surprised me when you suddenly mentioned you had a town read on him. What specifically is it about Jahudo's posting that made you feel he was town?

I'm glad I'm not the only person bothered by it. Was there any particular reason you didn't question him about this yourself?

It was probably 2:30 in Sydney and he thought, "I'm tired and it'd be easier to wait for the litmus test for pops to come back from the lab before i comment on it anyway."

If that was the case couldn't he have not posted at all and gone to bed? I've seen this point brought up by more than one person and don't really get it.

I largely disagree with popsofctown's case against SerialClergyman, but whether it's genuine or not I have no clue. One thing I think we can deduce from what SC said about Ectomancer's post though is they're probably not scum together. I think if they were SC would want to see what a few others said rather than just calling Ectomancer very unlikely scum.

iamausername's posts are pretty thin; would like some more content from him. I'm also curious if someone who's reading him as town could explain the towntells on him.

[popsofctown]

c) Sponsor a townie - I'm a massive advocate of town tells, you can look at most of my meta or anyone who's played with me to verify. I even went through a phase where for day 1 I specifically DIDN'T scum hunt as town, instead just looking for people I wouldn't want to lynch and lynching literally anyone else. I just finished a98 page game with iam as mod where a major factor in our winning was a town read elvis and I made on each other on page 2. If I see something town-looking, I'm calling it out. Theory arguments that it's a bad idea for a scum hitlist are stupid. If we could use a cop or something to give us 3 confirmed town right now, we'd do it, yes? You only need 1 more obvtown than scum left in lylo to win.

So, in short, I'm big on town reads, I'm loud about them.

You gave a town read, with no reasoning. You only gave the post that caused it. If you posted a scum read with no reasoning but a post number and voted on it, I would jump on you. Can I not jump on you for starting a process of elimination that will also lead to a vote on some logically remaining scum later in the game, if it also lacks reasoning? I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.

d) Lack of independence - Probably the worst of the lot given in B) and C) he's shown instances where I WAS independent. I think grabbing all of the times where I've agreed with people or asked for thoughts without acknowledging I've made several of my own observations throughout the game (initial suspicion on nab for his 'I have other reasons' comment, declaring patrick town, declaring ecto town, declaring iam town, suspecting Red) - all of which I think I was either first on or had unique reasoning.

Bed time.

This is a misrep of my argument, but perhaps I didn't make that point clear enough. You indicated in one post that you weren't convinced on Nabscum. Then some people voted him. Then without identifying any reason that pulled him over the threshhold, but instead quoting a REASONLESS votepost and saying you agreed, you vote him. That's not cool.

Instead of developing a patterned model for my play, he went on an extremely WIFOMy angle of logic and said "last time he posted fluff we thought he was scum and he was actually town, so this time it means he's town... BUT THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUUUUUN".

I keep checking the thread, seeing town, not posting, and then LoL tells me a match has been found, but my teammate picked Katarina so it's autoloss anyway.

What?

You voted me saying "I was aware of my fluff meta and could be using it to make myself look town". Something like that. It was very WIFOM. I probably ought to quote it.

popsofctown is aware of his fluff meta, and I think he could use it as scum to try and hide behind this null tell.

As for the other, I said when I checked the thread I was seeing nothing but town. I don't post anything when I see nothing but townreads. Other less intelligent players in this thread do, in order to form a more perfect itinerary for the scum nightkills, but I keep it to myself, so I'm left with nothing to comment on unless I need to defend myself or can find some scum.

[Incognito]

I'm glad I'm not the only person bothered by it. Was there any particular reason you didn't question him about this yourself?

When I said that I got the same feel you did, I was talking about the part that you addressed to Goatrevolt where you mentioned that you were thinking Jahudo might have been shifting to bus-mode on a hypo NabNab-scum. I was thinking the same thing and that's why I questioned Ecto on his town read of Jahudo in my #185. I get the feeling that you think I was referring to the first half of your post there - that part I hadn't picked up on until you pointed it out.



I finally got a chance to sift through the case(s) on SerialClergyman and at the moment, I'm not really buying into either one of them. Both Goat and pops pointed out SC's fairly quick shift in opinion on NabNab and I do see what they're getting at, but I certainly wouldn't consider lynching SC at this time as I've generally gotten a good feeling about him for a good portion of the game so far. If NabNab is Today's lynch and does flip scum, I don't think SC would be my first choice for his buddy either way.

[Hoopla]

Day 1, Vote Count #10

With twelve alive, it takes

7

votes to lynch. Deadline is schedueled for 7:00AM GMT, April 26th <Countdown>.

NabakovNabakov

-

5

(Elmo, Goatrevolt, SerialClergyman, iamausername, McGriddle)

popsofctown

-

2

(Incognito, Jahudo)

McGriddle

-

2

(NabakovNabakov, RedCoyote)

Goatrevolt

-

1

(Patrick)

SerialClergyman

-

1

(popsofctown)

Not Voting

-

1

(Ectomancer)

[Patrick]

Incognito, what's your view of popsofclown?

Mod

: Please give iamausername a prod.

[iamausername]

Back from the exam from hell. I should be ok activity-wise for awhile hopefully. Trying to catch up now.

Oh, hi Elmo, nice of you to show up 8 minutes after someone first asked for your opinion on something

This is ringing my scumdar.

With respect to NabNab or with respect to Elmo?

NabNab.

Maybe making the 5th consecutive reasonless vote on this wagon seems like a dangerous play if this whole things goes belly up.

And while we're on that subject, this is too.

No, if I felt someone was being anti-town but couldn't definitively say that I thought his or her behavior was more likely to come from scum, I wouldn't be willing to support that person's lynch. You would?

Of course. I don't subscribe NabNab's point of view that Elmo is acting in "bad form" (I'd say he's probably just trying to be cute), but I'd definitely be willing to lynch someone on the first day who I thought was actively hurting the town's chances at victory, because that's the best time to do so.

Both sides of this argument seem to be failing to consider a pretty important factor in the equation. Namely, what is everyone else doing? Because for me, the question of whether I'd be willing to lynch someone I thought was anti-town but not particularly scummy would be pretty centrally dependant on whether I thought there were other players who

were

particularly scummy.

Why do I feel like you're making it up as you go along?

I suspect it may be because he's making it up as he goes along.

It seems like you haven't found anything worthwhile this game, and yet you've already got a few townies picked out. That's pretty impressive, so what's your secret?

Not directed at me, I know, but I'd say a good place to start is looking for the people who aren't saying things like this.

I interpret it as Nabakov stating that Elmo is questionable for only providing content when asked a question. Nabakov asks Elmo to provide content, making any response from Elmo seem more scummy because it will prove that Elmo only gives content when asked a question. That doesn't seem like the town way to prove a scumtell.

This is an excellent articulation of one of my biggest issues with NabNab's posting.

By giftwrapped case, he means a case that is easy to piggyback on, take ownership of, and push to lynch.

I feel like I have to take a pretty big step into scum mindset territory just to figure out the term though..

I dislike the implications of this.

The first part where he seems to imply that he didn't know what game it was all along just doesn't seem genuine to me. Considering the fact that my post was made at 5:18 my time and Jahudo's post was made less than 20 minutes after it, I just don't see how he could have

a)

found the game,

b)

analyzed it to see if he could figure out what McGriddle was talking about, and then

c)

change his opinion of him in such a short timeframe.

What exactly would be the purpose of this deception?

iamausername's posts are pretty thin; would like some more content from him.

Is there anything in particular you want me to comment on?

You gave a town read, with no reasoning. You only gave the post that caused it.

If you posted a scum read with no reasoning but a post number and voted on it, I would jump on you.

Can I not jump on you for starting a process of elimination that will also lead to a vote on some logically remaining scum later in the game, if it also lacks reasoning? I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.

You don't seem to be applying this very consistently in this game.

[Incognito]

Incognito, what's your view of popsofclown?

Patrick, some people are afraid of clowns. It's not nice to change pops' name like that, ya know.

I'm not too sure about popsofc

town

right now. Even though I disagree with his case against ze Clergyman, I do think he brings up certain points that I can see myself bringing up against someone, so that's making me second guess myself about him (I'm talking mainly about the portion of his case where he scrutinizes SerialClergyman's sentence structure, which led him to believe that SC's thought process might not be genuine, and the other part of his case where he points out that SC's shift in opinion on NabNab seemed unnatural). That and the fact that Jahudo, a person who I'm getting a slight scummy read off of, voted him are beginning to give me some doubts about my initial read of him.

@iamausername:

Prior to that post, Jahudo was giving McGriddle a bit of flak and stating that he basically agreed with the case that NabakovNabakov put together against him (McG), and he questioned me about why I disagreed. I stated why I disagreed and then asked McGriddle to link to the game he had been referring to all along. If Jahudo's scum, I could see him trying to ignore the game in question so that he could continue to push the case against McG. I don't think that would be able to happen any longer once the game came to the forefront though.

[Elmo]

Posting Review

Goatrevolt - 33 (Score = 1.78)
popsofctown - 29 (Score = 1.56)
Ectomancer - 28 (Score = 1.51)
Incognito - 21 (Score = 1.14)
SerialClergyman - 20 (Score = 1.08)
NabakovNabakov - 17 (Score = 0.92)
Elmo - 17 (Score = 0.92)
McGriddle - 16 (Score = 0.86)
Patrick - 13 (Score = 0.70)
RedCoyote - 11 (Score = 0.59)
Jahudo - 10 (Score = 0.54)
iamausername - 7 (Score = 0.38)

Total: 222 posts over 162 hours; 222 / 12 = 18.5 post / person --> score(n) = 18.5 / n.

I quite like clowns.

[Incognito]

Elmo, do you draw any conclusions from that?

[SerialClergyman]

Patrick, where's your scumlist at at the moment?

Ecto, what's with the non-vote?

[Elmo]

Not directly.. I'm mostly checking my perception of how much people are posting. It was useful, I was quite off on some people - I figure it helps if everyone can use that.

Let me try something..

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, what's with the non-vote?

Are you bothered?

[Elmo]

Goatrevolt - 33 (Score = 1.78)

popsofctown - 29 (Score = 1.56)

Ectomancer - 28 (Score = 1.51)

Incognito - 21 (Score = 1.14)

SerialClergyman - 20 (Score = 1.08)

NabakovNabakov - 17 (Score = 0.92)

Elmo - 17 (Score = 0.92)

McGriddle - 16 (Score = 0.86)

Patrick - 13 (Score = 0.70)

RedCoyote - 11 (Score = 0.59)

Jahudo - 10 (Score = 0.54)

iamausername - 7 (Score = 0.38)

---

Day 1, Vote Count #10

NabakovNabakov

-

5

(

Elmo

,

Goatrevolt

,

SerialClergyman

,

iamausername

,

McGriddle

)

popsofctown

-

2

(

Incognito

,

Jahudo

)

McGriddle

-

2

(

NabakovNabakov

,

RedCoyote

)

Goatrevolt

-

1

(

Patrick

)

SerialClergyman

-

1

(

popsofctown

)

Not Voting

-

1

(

Ectomancer

)

Oooh, pretty.

[NabakovNabakov]

@Incognito: Frankly, I was curious as to how large this wagon could get before someone articulated even the most basic case for it. I typically put up a huge fight against wagons on me (and as you can see, that fighting instinct has begun to kick in even though the experiment isn't really over), but I thought it might make the game a little more interesting to let things travel along the path of least resistance. I've responded this way to absurd wagons before, except that was a case where a player posted a ridiculously thorough case rather than a ridiculously sparse one.

For those keeping score at home. This wagon is currently at 4 days and 5 votes, and of those on the wagon (surprisingly enough, players

off

the wagon have been significantly more vocal about it) username has provided the most thorough justification of his vote in 354. Goat and McGriddle have both admitted to a lack of justification (though promised some to come in the future); Elmo and SC have largely been silent on the matter since their vote.

For what it's worth, I don't see Jahudo's turnaround on me/McGriddle to be all that scummy. It's plausible that reading McGriddle's meta changed his opinion on my case. Knowing that I'm town, that would put Jahudo-scum and me in a "defender of a lost-cause" relationship pre-turnaround. This is actually plausible (especially for a professed busser), but there would be no reason for him to jump off that reverse-bus at the time he did. Thus, Jahudo-scum appears unlikely.

@Elmo: Pretty, but I don't see a pattern. Also, post count has always been a terrible metric of actual contribution.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, Ecto, it does, especially with your quick reply. What do you think your goals are re: this game right now?

[Elmo]

post count has always been a terrible metric of actual contribution.

What do you think of iamausername & Jahudo's level of contribution?

[Ectomancer]

I didn't ask if it mattered, I ask if you were bothered.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, I'm bothered.

[NabakovNabakov]

post count has always been a terrible metric of actual contribution.

What do you think of iamausername & Jahudo's level of contribution?

I feel like Jahudo's contribution has been decent, but there might be some bias there considering that most of the things he has posted have somehow involved me or my case on McGriddle. I think username's contribution has been subpar, but I would rank it close to that of McGriddle or SC. On the other hand, I think RedCoyote has had a significant impact on the game with a smaller number of longer posts. My problem with post-count isn't even so much one of quantity over quality as it simply being a poor metric even for measuring quantity. It can give just as much weight to 1 word as it does to 1000.

You haven't mentioned anything about what your rainbow has told you.Care to share?

[popsofctown]

Goatrevolt has the most posts. He just posts whatever he thinks. So surefooted.

[Goatrevolt]

Other less intelligent players in this thread do, in order to form a more perfect itinerary for the scum nightkills.

Worst argument ever. If you think the scum bother to use random townie's lists from early day 1 to decide on night kills, then you are wrong. Scum aren't stupid. They can figure out who is trusted and who isn't without requiring people to spell it out in lists. When people point out who they think are town and who they think are scum, there is more information to go off of. The game isn't just finding scum. Finding town is just as important.

Goatrevolt has the most posts. He just posts whatever he thinks. So surefooted.

Get over it.



The only points I really buy from pops case are the ones that reflect stuff I've brought up before. I didn't buy the word choice point at all. Serial's word choice in that scenario seemed pretty much exactly what pops was saying it should logically be, so...yeah.

The case doesn't really make me feel any better about pops. Or SerialClergyman for that matter. Not really worse either. I'll have to go over it in more detail later, but I'm not really reading much from it either way on either of them.

Between Nab, Jahudo, SC, and pops I think we'll find at least 2 scum.

Oh yeah, I read through Jahudo in ISO. I definitely think he could be scum. Furthermore I disagree with whoever said that pops/Jahudo don't fit as scum together. I think they definitely can. Jahudo jumping on him for a reason that wasn't very good long after the wagon died out doesn't suggest that pops is town if Jahudo is scum.