This is quite a long post. It's a responses to Jaudo's 552. I've gone back and reconstructed my thought process yesterday post-reassessment.
First, I think you mis-state slightly what I was thinking in your first two quotes:
335 I drop xRx/kyle and name hohum, DDD, ortolan as my suspicions, hohum/DDD ahead of ortolan. At this point Jack 297 had not liked ortolan's reaction to kyle's replacement, and Vi 316 had raised some points. Not much else suspicion of ortolan had been expressed. There were less than two days until deadline. xRx, Jack, and sotty were tied on 3 votes. hohum had 2 votes.
At this point I strongly wanted a lynch on someone other than xRx/flinter/kyle [replacements]. Deadline was close. I was ambivalent between hohum and DDD. 336 I put the DDD vote out there to see if there was any interest, otherwise I was planning on pushing hohum. If I recall, I was less sure of ortolan's scumminess, having trouble reading him, and thought the deadline was too close anyway. I see why not pushing him as a lynch candidate looks odd in light of the flip, but I don't see why I would've made this move if I were scum and thus especially aware of my interactions with ortolan. I would've either ignored ortolan altogether and pushed one of the existing wagons or listed him equally with my other suspicions.
As for the attitude change, from "hohum is scummy and a viable lynch" to "hohum is scummiest", this happened when I tried to explain the hohum case in detail and found it to be even stronger than I had thought. Moreover, people were disagreeing with it in strange ways that made me suspicious.
In 351 I sum up the hohum case for the first time. This soldified it for me, but I still hadn't noticed the real contradiction of hohum ignoring flinter. I noticed sotty and others had been misrepresenting the case.
365 about a day before deadline I said I would lynch any one of hohum, DDD, ortolan and moved my vote to hohum, as he was the one with most votes. I think at this point I hadn't decided that hohum was scummiest.
381/384 I started thinking about possible scumteams with hohum. I doubted Locke and Sotty's reactions to the hohum case. "I read him as town" with no elaboration was suspect. Sotty had been misrepping the hohum case. I noticed the zero interaction with DDD, another suspect. These strange interactions looked like a plausible scum team to me
I also noticed ortolan listing hohum as one of his two desired lynches. This could've been distancing, but as a first approximation I didn't consider that so likely, hence my answer to Vi.
Now, you say that my suspicion of anti-hohum-case people could be an indirect way to detail the ortolan wagon. Two points of response: first, there was one person on the ortolan wagon at that point, with a day until deadline. If I was ortolan's scum buddy I don't think it'd be worrying me that much. Secondly, it's so "indirect" that you could impute that motive to anyone in favor of any other wagon at that point. Not really seeing the shadiness. Can I ask if you find Locke chainsawing Vi for pushing ortolan, and explicitly denouncing the possibility of the ortolan wagon happening in time more or less suspect?
In 385 Locke asks a question about the hohum wagon, and I respond in 387. You didn't quote this post, but this is where I first fully recognize the contradiction in hohum voting for xRx but not mentioning flinter, and decided he was actually the scummiest, as well as the best scummy wagon. 392 of Jaudo's I found another baffling defence of hohum, ignoring all the best points against him. In 397, which you also don't mention, I respond to 392 and Sotty's 359 about hohum. By this point, clarifying the hohum case has convinced me that it's strong. And I continue to be dubious of the way people are responding to the case.
In your last quote, 400, I'm convinced the hohum case is solid, thinking out loud about possible scum partners for hohum, and trying to drum up support for a hohum lynch. The competing wagons at this point were Jack and xRx, and I definitely didn't want those to prevail. Note that all of this is before ortolan requested replacement, and thus before the deadline extension. After the deadline extension, I was convinced hohum was a good lynch, spent some time building the case. Although I had trouble interpreting the meltdown, I was never opposed to the ortolan wagon. I thought the hohum wagon was better so I spent time pushing that. I was also loathe to vote for ortolan's replacement before he got a chance to speak, not that he ever did of course.
Short answer to your question "where hohum did something to make him your number 1 suspect" is: he strongly voted xRx for acting a bit like BC, then ignored flinter acting much more like BC. Answer to "when you made that switch of opinion" is between posts 384 and 397.
