Open 213 -- Mini Love (Over)

[XScorpion]

/conform!

[XScorpion]

Vote: DarkLightA

for being (dead) scum in the other game I'm playing

[XScorpion]

NO U!

unvote
Vote: Robocopter

[XScorpion]

Joining the DLA wagon.

unvote
Vote: DLA

It was REALLY clear to me that there were 3 scum when I signed up. Scumpoints for what looks like him trying to trick people into thinking there were only 2.
Not to mention that I think it's an absolutely horrible idea for massclaim.

[XScorpion]

I don't like how you're essentially gambling on a 50-50 shot of getting ONE scum, and using this "plan" to completely avoid scumhunting.

Let's assume worst case scenario (which, with your plan, has about 50% probability of occurring - VERY HIGH). We lynch two town lovers today. At night, a townie or doctor dies. Next day, we lynch the other lovers. Another townie/doctor dies. We're now down 5 townspeople, and we only hit 1 mafia. I don't know about you, but I think that a 50% chance of losing FIVE townspeople just to hit 1 mafia is pretty horrible.

This plan is a dud and DLA is scum for suggesting it.

[XScorpion]

I think it would be a good idea because I honestly dont understand why lovers claiming would be a bad thing the way I have described previously.

Let's assume worst case scenario (which, with your plan, has about 50% probability of occurring - VERY HIGH). We lynch two town lovers today. At night, a townie or doctor dies. Next day, we lynch the other lovers. Another townie/doctor dies. We're now down 5 townspeople, and we only hit 1 mafia. I don't know about you, but I think that a 50% chance of losing FIVE townspeople just to hit 1 mafia is pretty horrible.

[XScorpion]

I think Case 2 is better, but you can't guarantee that we can reach that situation.
Also why are you avoiding scumhunting?

[XScorpion]

Either that, or we have a situation where if the town pair is killed we know the other, still living pair is scum.

So you think it's worth trading FIVE townies just to nail the treacherous lover?

I'm lolling at how you're copying everything everyone else says...

I'm lolling how you didn't say anything when I accused you of this the first time in post 46.
The only reason you think we are scum is because we know your "plan" is completely idiotic and you don't agree with us. Am I right?

[XScorpion]

Wow.
Way to go Yankee for completely screwing the rest of town.

[XScorpion]

75% chance that he's town is pretty high.
This doesn't screw us over, as long as we lynch the right couple today, which has less than 50% chance of happening (scum will try to push for the lynch of the other couple, meanwhile the rest of us have no clue which is the right one). Not to mention that Yankee has forced town into following DLA's plan, which as I stated before, has potential to result in the death of five townies just to get one scum. By the way, we now have to lynch the lover couples over the next two days, otherwise scum get a free shot at the town couple.
So yeah, good job Yankee for getting us into this mess. Did you really not want to do any scumhunting or something? I don't see why else you would jump the gun and go against a TOWN MAJORITY.

[XScorpion]

DLA needs to learn to count.
Here is what's going to happen.
Suppose we don't lynch lovers today. Chances are that we will mislynch and hit a townie (MINUS ONE TOWNIE). At night, the town couple dies (MINUS THREE TOWNIES). We now know who the treacherous lover is paired with, so we lynch them both (MINUS FOUR TOWNIES). At night, another townie gets killed (MINUS FIVE TOWNIES). This is why DLA's plan fails.

Notice how XScorpion says what's bolded in order to attach himself to the idea of "rest of town".

You're stretching.

We will possibly be able to see through who is hesitant to being lynched.

No, you won't, because the treacherous lover might not claim, and you get to decide between two townies. This tells you nothing, no one is hesitant, you simply have 3 people trying to push for the lynch of one of the lovers instead of the other.

Look: The scum are faced with a "if town lovers die then scum+town lovers are revealed to the town".

If town lovers die tonight and scum+town lovers get lynched the next day, we lose three townies before the next night phase where we lose another townie, totaling four dead townies in exchange for one scum. Do you think this is a bad thing for scum? I don't.

The only way this can work out without losing at least four townspeople (assuming doctor fails to protect) is if we lynch the correct (scum+lover) couple today, which means we manage to trade 2 town for a scum, and force the doctor to protect the other townie for the rest of the game.

[XScorpion]

but you fail to realize (or at least fail to show) that the doctor WILL BE PROTECTING the town lovers during the night therefore we will not lose them.

We're getting them to claim, that way the scum CAN'T KILL OFF THE TOWN LOVERS.

I must be missing something here. How does the doctor know which is the town pair? What is stopping scum from 2-for-1'ing the town pair tonight?

[XScorpion]

1). Doctor is free to protect anyone he wants that is not a claimed lover (No doctor protection for either lover pair)
2). Scum do not kill Town lovers because it would expose the treacherous lover.
3). If Scum does kill town lovers, then we kill treacherous lovers day 2.

1 is nice. 2 will not happen. We lynch today, MAYBE hit scum (probably not, so minus one townie). Scum will probably kill town lovers (minus three townies). we kill treacherous lover (minus four townies). Townie gets killed next night. We just traded 5 townies for 1 scum, and MAYBE catching a scum on day one. In other words, THIS IS BAD.

1). Doctor will protect claimed treacherous lover Night 1 (only because we wont find out if they are treacherous or not until the next morning)
2). Scum kill random person Night 1.
3). We kill treacherous lovers day 2

Same result as above, in other words, BAD.

1). Doctor will protect claimed town lover Night 1.
2). We Eliminate 1 Mafia at the expense of 2 Townies
3). We have a confirmed townie (and one somewhat confirmed townie because if we get close to lynching the other lover the claimed lover can claim him)

This is the ONLY good outcome. The chances of this are not only very slim, but DLA does not want this outcome to happen (he is opposed to lynching lovers today).

So, explain why it was good to put us in this situation? Why are you not scum for basically dooming the town? The only way this claiming will "work" is if we magically hit the scum lovers. So, a) if we aren't lynching lovers as DLA says, why did you claim? And b) if we are lynching lovers, why are my complaints not justified?

Either I'm missing something really obvious here which STILL hasn't been explained to me (that is, why is this a good plan?), or this plan is a disaster, and DLA (for thinking this nightmare up in the first place) or you are likely scum for putting town in this position despite the majority of town not agreeing with you.

We're getting them to claim, that way the scum CAN'T KILL OFF THE TOWN LOVERS.

Can I get a straight answer to why this is true?

[XScorpion]

I guess I'll just have to wait for someone else then to ask my question of why this was worth it in the first place, because you still haven't adequately explained how this plan was more likely to succeed than fail.

But the one thing you are right about is that there is no turning back now. So anyway, what's the plan here? Are we supposed to lynch one of the lovers, or not? It looks like to me that lynching a lover is the best course for the day given the new circumstances, and I'm waiting on DLA to explain why it isn't.

And DLA is right: another lover has to claim now or we are almost certainly screwed.

[XScorpion]

^^ So...what was wrong with just waiting for the town pair to die, then having the town lover of the other pair claim afterward?

[XScorpion]

Sorry guys, it's exam month so I'm gonna be on-off :/

So what's the deal here? We're just randomly voting for someone we think is scummy? Then what was the point of claiming lovers -_-

I still don't understand the reasoning behind this plan and until I do I'm going to go with the course of action that makes the most sense to me: voting for a lover pair and hoping to God that it's the scum one, and relying on the doctor to protect the other pair.

unvote
Vote: Chronopie

[XScorpion]

You would rather that the town pair gets killed at night and tomorrow is wasted because we have to policy vote for the other pair?

[XScorpion]

1) It's not "another shot at scum", because if we lynch a lover pair today, then tomorrow we can scumhunt as normal as opposed to making a policy lynch.
2) Unfortunately, the doc can't claim because then he dies the next night, and then on the night afterward the couple dies anyway.
3) Or maybe the scum will just pull a WIFOM and kill a random townie instead while the doctor keeps protecting a couple, which makes our doctor useless.

[XScorpion]

Sure he's scummy, but that doesn't mean he is scum.
Your assertion that "if he is scum then Chronopie's lover group contains the treacherous" is speculation, not factual. If he is indeed scum, Easjo could just as easily be pulling a WIFOM on you.
Unless YOU are scum, you don't know for a fact whether or not the scum will kill a couple tonight. I still don't understand why it is "better for the scum to leave both lovers alive" when they can easily just score a 2-for-1 on the townie couple.

[XScorpion]

For some reason ksen gives me immediate scum vibes.

Why?

I agree with Robo that we should lynch a lover pair today before scum discover which one is the scum pair (assuming of course, the treacherous lover didn't already claim). Yankee seems scummier to me than Chrono for his sudden and unprovoked claim, but Chrono's die roll landed on himself so I'll just have to keep a policy vote.

[XScorpion]

What he said.
Thanks for not answering any questions, DLA.

[XScorpion]

Please don't reveal the names of your lover buddies, unless you are DEAD CERTAIN he/she is scum. And since this is a game where almost nothing is certain, that means you really shouldn't.

[XScorpion]

I'd rather have a lurker than a dead townie.
Not to mention that if we lose two townies to modkill and screw up this lynch, it's over.

[XScorpion]

I wouldn't.
Dead townie is just -1 to town population. A mislynch gives information about who could be scum, assuming it's not a policy lynch.

[XScorpion]

The mod erased it because he changed his mind.

Judgment call revoked.

[XScorpion]

@All: Can I get a poll of who wants to lover lynch and who doesn't? I want to have a solid idea of what we're going to do today.

[XScorpion]

Nikanor, in your last post, why do you say to Wolf that you are waiting for DLA's response? I couldn't find anywhere to where that statement is a reply to.

I suspect he's referring to this:

How do you know who the claimed lovers' partners are? Even Chronopie states that he doesn't think his partner is scum.

My lover finally hints at which lover he is paired with,

I'm confused. What?

[XScorpion]

We have no options anymore.
Assuming you are the town lover pair, you will die tonight even if we don't lynch you.

unvote
Vote: Yankee

[XScorpion]

Suppose one of Wolf or Yankee is scum. Then we should lynch them. End of story.

Suppose they are the town pair. Then if we don't lynch them, they are going to die tonight anyway, since our doctor is now helpless (50% chance is quite unreliable) to stop the mafia. I would rather lynch the claimed pair so that we have the CHANCE that Chronopie is part of the town pair and thus becomes a protected and confirmed townie.

[XScorpion]

Also whoever said 50% chance is unreliable is foolish. 50% chance at having a nokill at night? That is awesome. Ever seen two non-doc PRs claim and the scum go and kill someone random? Scum are afraid of a nokill.

I think there's just as much chance that Yankee or you are scum, so it makes more sense to vote for you and hope for the best case scenario that Chrono becomes confirmed town and his lover stays hidden.

[XScorpion]

@XSCORPION: IF THE TOWN LOVERS ARE KILLED DURING NIGHT, WE KNOW WHO THE SCUM LOVERS ARE!

Why is this useful? Are you suggesting that it is good for us to (probably) mislynch a townie today, watch the town lovers get killed tonight, make a policy lynch on the scum lovers the next day, then lose another townie the next night, resulting in a 5 town for 1 scum trade?

Personally I'd rather take my chances and hope that I can lynch the scum lover today (50% accuracy is a lot higher chance to hit scum than you will get aiming for a goon), then have a confirmed townie tomorrow, which means a 2-for-1 trade and gives town the power of a confirmed townsperson.

[XScorpion]

Because of you. I find you very scummy. You bounced right onto my scum list. But thinking about it,

the scum don't know who their treacherous lover's lover is... So:

This is only true if Chrono is scum. Is that what you think?

[XScorpion]

whatever.

unvote
Vote: LoneWolf

[XScorpion]

That's precisely what I'm trying to say.
If your lover is scum, and they know who their lover is, then they know you are the treacherous lover's lover since they know the other pair.
If you are scum, they don't know who the treacherous lover (that would be you)'s lover is.

DLA's claim was that the treacherous lover's lover is unknown, which we both know is only true if you are scum.

[XScorpion]

Yankee's claim could be scum trying to force town into revealing all the lovers. And look what's happened, town is now in a horrible position.
Yankee may also be right in that easjo is scum with Lonewolf, although I think that might be pushing it.
Either way, there's a fair chance that they are the scum pair.

Meanwhile I'm pretty sure you're town, and your null read on your partner is kind of useless to us, so I'd rather take my chances with the other team.

Doctor do NOT protect Chrono tonight, that is the point of my flipping.

Uh wow, no? If you or Yankee are scum, then they are going to kill Chrono tonight and we're minus 3 townies instead of 2. Chrono must be protected tonight if we're going to lynch you two.

[XScorpion]

Besides the fact that he's lurking, has he actually done anything that you think is particularly scummy?
I am not up for voting for lurkers. We are already taking a big enough gamble by having so many lover claims to take yet another risk and vote out someone who is lurking.

[XScorpion]

Clock is ticking, guys.
We are gonna be screwed if we don't lynch lovers today, so let's hurry up about it huh?

[XScorpion]

Ugh.
So basically we have 3 claimed lovers, and now Chrono is saying that his lover is one of two possibilities.
Is it just me or did we just completely screw up day 1?

[XScorpion]

Virtually, but not quite. Supposing that you are in the scum pair, if we lynch you today and the doctor protects Chrono, the scum have to make a gamble on which of the lurkers they think is Chrono's partner. I don't know about you, but I like the idea that scum might have to waste multiple night phases aiming for lurkers while the obvious pro-town people survive.

[XScorpion]

In fact, if Chrono is lying to deceive scum and his lover ISN'T one of the lurkers then we are in an even better position, although I doubt he would do something like that...

[XScorpion]

This is just stupid.

You are aware you are mostly to blame for this situation, right?

Vote: DLA

for his plan that got town into this mess.

[XScorpion]

I want to hear why you think lover claiming makes any sense in the first place. Especially if you don't plan on lynching them.
Here's my argument: Suppose no one claimed (best solution). If the town lovers die, the town lover paired with the scum lover immediately claims and then we know who is scum. Knowing this, what are the benefits to have lovers claim?

I will also point out that every player (with the exception of our two lurkers, Looker and Henry) has at one point supported a lover lynch, so I guess according to you everyone is anti town. Good analysis.

[XScorpion]

1- Reduce the pool of people to protect for the doc by 4 for early game and by everyone but 2 for late game (assuming the doc is decent at scumhunting)
2- Prevents a surprise scum-victory (since we can predict how things will develop)
3- Helps prevent No-Lynch due to L-1 claims that we shouldnt lynch if we care for town win.
4- It's statistically easier to catch 2 scum in 7 players than 3 in 11, with a potential mislynch having a less adverse effect
5- Your "best solution" only reduce the amount of lost townies by 1, which in itself is insignificant when compared to the advantages in earlier points.

1. I don't understand this. How are you "reducing the pool" exactly? Last time I checked, scum can target anyone.
2. A surprise scum victory isn't any worse than a predicted scum victory.
3. Yes, because we totally prevented no lynch yesterday. </sarcasm>
4. Perhaps true, but there is no downside that I see to simply playing as normal, and letting people claim lover at L-1. A scum false-claiming lover won't last long.
5. At this point, my "best solution" would have reduced the number of lost townies by 2 since we wouldn't have been stupid enough to no lynch yesterday.

Remind me exactly why you "have to lynch" me again?

[XScorpion]

1-Scum wants to keep the lovers alive as long as possible since their death can reverse the tide of the game really fast (like lylo tomorrow if we mislynch) as such there is no specific value in protecting the lovers day 1-2. Once we get to lover LyLo the only person scum want to lynch are the lovers, so we don't need to protect the others.
2- Unless scum are complete idiots in this game, they won't false claim since it's entirely verifiable. If we bring someone to l-1 and they claim lover we'd be stuck unvoting and mounting another wagon, even if it's the treacherous lover. Actually: The treacherous lover is the last scum we want to lynch.
3-Well if you hadn't argued for like 10 pages before doing anything there would probably have been a lynch.
4-Show me your math why we "save" two townies, because that makes no sense whatsoever.

1. You don't know what scum

want

unless you are scum. Are you?
2. Again, I don't care where we're headed as long as we win.
3. Well seeing as how we had 2 lurkers and how I was trying my best NOT to get town into the mess it's in now, I don't see how you have any right to complain.
4. So...what's the downside to playing normally there? Last time I checked, forcing someone to claim lover at L-1 and forcing them to complain at 0 votes does the same thing.
5. If we actually scumhunted properly rather than go about this lover claim farce, we could have had a decent chance to lynch a scum yesterday, rather than waste a day with the no lynch. This means we wouldn't have lost robocopter for nothing, and assuming we actually hit scum, we'd be a day ahead which means the scum have 1 less day to NK people = 1 less townie dead.

And I would love to hear how you think DLA is town despite the fact that he let the no lynch go through and came up with the brilliant idea to get town in this mess.

[XScorpion]

1. I'm assuming scum wants to win.
2. That's a sure way to lose
3. You = second person plural, its the players as a whole I'm accusing here
4. The wagon has to be brought down and someone else has to get a wagon built on them, takes longer, much longer.
5. Considering your reads in the game, I don't think with you leading we'd have lynched anyone close to being scum, but that's just me. Also, day 1 lynch are more often than not on townies, we'd have at MOST lynched 1 scum, saved no townie.

And again, DLA didnt provoke the no lynch by himself and this "mess" the town is in is more a result of your anti-town, reticent play that his plea for lover claims.

1. Despite your arrogant beliefs, the way to win isn't always whatever way

you

think is best.
2. Well, your style of play got town into where it is now. I think I would have rather play blind and scumhunted like normal instead of getting in this mess.
3. If you don't like how everyone is playing the game then gtfo.
4. Assuming people don't lurk and post frequently, this shouldn't be a problem.
5. Right, that's just you. And at least my lead would have lynched SOMEONE. Lynching one scum is at least as good as preventing one townie from dying, and we wouldn't be in the minus one townie off the bat position we are in now.

Maybe DLA wasn't alone, but the other players who didn't prevent no lynch were either lurkers or also fairly scummy. I'm still not seeing how I'm in any way responsible for every single lover claiming.

And is it just me, or does the existence of a confirmed "townie" sort of game breaking?

[XScorpion]

It's really one of my pet peeves when someone who isn't (technically) in the game starts making posts. So you'll have to forgive me if I just start ignoring you until CJ says I can't.

[XScorpion]

Respectively?

[XScorpion]

This game was broken the moment an unbiased outside observer was permitted to post, attack and vote for other players. Peace out.

unvote
Vote: XScorpion

[XScorpion]

Replacements read role pms. You didn't.

[XScorpion]

The Rules:
1. Play to win. No jackassery.

[XScorpion]

You didn't know that prior to posting.

[XScorpion]

It's not a distancing act because you didn't know you were scum and people knew that.

[XScorpion]

Game became total nonsense as soon as someone who was confirmed town decided to jump in and throw the game into chaos. We had the game in the bag until then.

Remind me never to respond to people who haven't read their PMs yet.