227 - You Only Live Twice - Game Over!

[?YouYou?]

So that would mean 2 killing groups, right?

I think so. I also don't think that there's any way scum or SK would have killed one of their accounts day one. CA and ?IS? are probably not scum (do we know either way?). I don't think we should have them come out, but I do think that if they're pushed to claim, that's a good point in their favor.

A little google goes a long way. OMGUS vote: BrianMcQueso

BrianMcQueso does indeed suck, but I think someone else here is worse.

OMGUS vote: Mr Stoofer

for wanting to take out all the ? accounts. If we keep doing that, the scum will take out all the primary accounts to get people out of the game completely. And we'll stop seeing ? accounts getting killed at night, so we'll have worse odds of finding a scum when we lynch. If there's a lynching strategy that favors the scum, I think you have just proposed it.

[?YouYou?]

I've actually gone and forgotten the password for my ?Charlie? account, I can't log in to it at all.

Smooth claim... ?

[?YouYou?]

unvote: Mr Stoofer, vote: ?Nameless One?

I forgive Stoofer.

[?YouYou?]

It doesn't look like there's any claiming or voting strategy that helps us. So let's lynch ?Nameless One? and BrianMcQueso and see where that gets us.

[?YouYou?]

Why are people waiting for me? Because I want to lynch ?Nameless One? and Brian McQueso? Let's wait on BrianMcQueso and lynch ?Nameless One? then. Though I think Brian's discussion of mass claim wasn't very well thought out, I was mostly trying to think of a normal account that I didn't really like all that much. Now, I'm somewhat more suspicious, since he has claimed either non-vanilla townie or scum. Maybe we should lynch him based on that. I never suggested "speed-lynch," though.

I'm also still wondering if mass claim is a good idea. We'll probably figure out who some of us are anyway. Say that the scum really want to get ?Internet Stranger? out of the game. They've got a 2/7 chance of doing that during the night. We've got a 2/10 chance of doing that during the day. That's 28% vs. 20%. If we mass claim, we're on even ground, 100% and 100%.
If we add in the fact that the scum (since they've got more heads together, and they've got fewer people to try to link together) are more likely to link two people, they're in way more control.

If there is any reason for us to want to eliminate someone completely, we should go ahead and mass claim. That said, I don't think there's a reason for us to want to eliminate either Commodore Amazing or ?Internet Stranger? completely. They've got a much higher chance of being clear than anyone else.

[?YouYou?]

This post was long, so I cut it down. I'm not avoiding questions, I'm only responding to the ones that

seem reasonable to ask

it's conceivable someone might think are reasonable to ask.

what was your reason for saying we should lynch ?Nameless One? as opposed to prodding him to post?

Voting for ?Nameless One? seems to be a good way to get him to post more.

I know (well not know, but I'd bet serious money) there are no townies in this game. StrykkerVerde abhors putting basic townsfolk in his games.

[Brian] has claimed either non-vanilla townie or scum. Maybe we should lynch him based on that.

How does that justify lynching him? I mean, how is it even scummy?

Does it sound scummy if I rephrase it as "Hey, guys. Tell me your roles, please, thanks." or "Oh, crap, forgot to tell my scum buds not to claim vanilla townie, better do that?" It's probably the scummiest thing anyone has said so far with regard to the set-up. You should realize this.

I never suggested "speed-lynch," though.

You suggested lynching without giving a reason why... it was a random lynch you were asking for...

There were already reasons given for voting for Brian and ?Nameless One? by others. It was not random. I've never seen Seol bark up the wrong tree so much before. Having a reputation for being a good town player must suck when you're in the Mafia.

People will be bandwagonned to claims today, and if we've mass-claimed that's both halves of the role gone.

I guess the only way we can win is if we've got some good roles left. Let's assume we do, and not mass-claim.

Why are we talking about mass claim day 1 anyway?

When we lynch you, we're going to want to lynch the other half too.

Seol is making an awful lot of sense to me.

That makes one of us. I hope you're Seol.

It's not like I started a bandwagon, let it go, watched two townies get killed, and said, "Aw, shucks, whose fault was that?" They didn't even get higher than three votes. And they certainly aren't worse than any bandwagons you see on other DAY ONEs.

Once more, here are my reasons:
?Nameless One? - lurking and bandwagoning Stoofer based on crap.
BrianMcQueso - sketchy mass claim logic, and lack of a better candidate in the original account crowd. Plus, the people voting for him seem pretty not-scummy to me.

Now let's lynch Seol and either ?Nameless One?, BrianMcQueso, or ?Seol?.

unvote: ?Nameless One?, vote: Seol

[?YouYou?]

Anyone else feel like lynching Seol?

Quick! Now's your chance to make it look like you're ?YouYou? by agreeing with me. I'm talking to you, Mr Stoofer.

[?YouYou?]

I've never seen Seol bark up the wrong tree so much before. Having a reputation for being a good town player must suck when you're in the Mafia.

Wow, going out on personal attacks is not the way to make people think you're not scum.

I didn't think it was too much of a personal attack to mention that someone has a good reputation. I gots no beef with Seol.

Vote: ?YouYou?

Vote: Deadline

I like the second vote much more than the first...

Sigh, I must have made a mistake somewhere, so I guess I'll claim. I'm Commodore Amazing. I'm not a vanilla townie, though I'm not really sure how useful my role is. I've never had it before. I'm probably not worth protecting, and it wouldn't be the end of the world if you lynched me. You might want to keep me around just to see if the scum wants to eliminate me completely. If I can get confirmed by people, my role, or game events (all three in this case), I tend to play more aggressively and ignore the fact that it makes me super-shady. I guess I sucked this time.

I'm trying to figure out which one of you would have a reason to kill me night one during a game.

I'll still stick with my suspicions on Brian McQueso, ?Nameless One? and Seol (this statement is independent of my previous statement).

I'm going to preemptively defend myself against "No one asked you to claim" with "I'm extremely impatient, and I knew where this was going."

[?YouYou?]

I don't see what's in the posts between that made you decide you'd had to think about it.

My claim, maybe?

[?YouYou?]

unvote: Seol, vote: ????

For defending GreenLiquid and bandwagoning with Seol. Both of these things seem to be the wrong thing to do.

[?YouYou?]

unvote: ????, vote: GreenLiquid

I hate getting lynched day one, so it's nice to see someone else volunteer.

[?YouYou?]

I wish we could lynch 6 more people. I think we would do well to lynch all of ?ClearLiquid?, ?PurpleLiquid?, Dranko20, Seol, ????, or BrianMcQueso.

vote: Seol

[?YouYou?]

Hi, SapphireVerde.

Vote: ?Purple Liquid?

There is only room for two liquids here, and you are not one of them.

And that's all he wrote. Sounds like it could be GreenLiquid to me.

unvote: Seol, vote: ?ClearLiquid?

. The scum killed esme and ?emse? We can return the favor by trying to knock out one of their accounts completely.

[?YouYou?]

Let's be careful with our votes here. I estimate we could have up to 5 scum left. With only 7 to lynch, we shouldn't be too casual with our votes.

Does anyone else think that Mr Stoofer would have tried to vig ?Purple Liquid? I don't think he would have had any reason to kill Seol.

[?YouYou?]

Just so everyone knows, of this group:

Dranko20
d_rouge
SapphireVerde
BrianMcQueso
Quailman
Flying Dutchman

2 are half dead already (?Internet Strenger? and ?ClearLiquid?)

Of this group:

?YouYou?
?Purple Liquid?
?Colinus?
?Charlie?
????
?Namelessone?
?Impossible?

3 are dead already (myself (CA), GreenLiquid, and mepmuff). Our best case scenario is that all the scum + SK are half-dead (GL, mepmuff, ?IS?, and ?ClearLiquid?). Our worst case scenario is that they're all totally alive.

I'd like a claim out of ?PurpleLiquid? before we lynch.

[?YouYou?]

Boo. That's not a defense. Seol and Mr Stoofer were all over that, too. For all we know, both ?ClearLiquid? and ?PurpleLiquid? are scum.

vote: ?PurpleLiquid?

[?YouYou?]

That would be a lynch people. That's right a LYNCH.

?Purple Liquid? is actually. Green Liquid, go figure eh.

He was, the MAFIA GODFATHER. Good Job. One more must die before the day is out.

I think a happy dance is appropriate for this one:



And claim, please, Sapphire. I love these bandwagons!

[?YouYou?]

On GreenLiquid - ?Charlie?, d_rouge, ?Impossible?, ?YouYou?, Flying Dutchman, ????
On ?PurpleLiquid? - ?Colinus?, ?Impossible?, Flying Dutchman, BrianMcqueso, ?YouYou?, Quailman, Dranko20

Of the current ? crew, ?NamelessOne? is the only one that wasn't on either bandwagon. Of the current not ? crew, Sapphire is the only one not on either of these bandwagons. These two seem like pretty good lynches.

Feeling pretty good about Flying Dutchman and his alter ego right now (figure it out yourselves, scum). Unless he's SK.

Uh, yeah... I'll claim responsibility for posting that one.

Time to get modkilled.

[?YouYou?]

Sorry, everyone.

[?YouYou?]

Whew... that was close. Yes, I would like a claim from SapphireVerde. She's not dead yet.

[?YouYou?]

unvote: SapphireVerde

unless we get a counterclaim.

vote: ?NamelessOne?

. I was suspicious of ?NamelessOne? earlier.

[?YouYou?]

Combining this logic with the posts made by the surviving players, I'm not prepared to belive the claim. Sapphire did not even post until the morning of day 2 to say "Yay, I'm alive."

Sapphire was a replacement for MoS. Chances are good (I'd say about 50-50) that Sapphire's already half-dead. I don't know if it's helpful to know if she's half-dead or not.

I'm looking at three possible scum candidates who might have cast those two votes, yet they did not. If that means the majority of remaining scum were already voting, then Dranko is probably one of them. The only reason he's listed in the quote above is that he cast the last vote for ?PurpleLiquid?, who was soon to die anyway.

I think Dranko might also be a good person to lynch. I guess waiting to hear from Sapphire who she protected might be a good idea. I'm not completely sold that she's innocent.

@???? - Honestly, I think we're doing pretty well. We still have a pretty good shot that scum and SK might kill each other. And I bet we've got some power roles out there waiting to make a move. You might want to bold that vote for ?NamelessOne?

[?YouYou?]

Well, it's weird that you didn't ask right away.

Good point. And she could have at least given us the protections that she did last night. Seems like stalling to me.

vote: SapphireVerde

; I think that's two away from lynch.

[?YouYou?]

Let's see if we can still win this. First things first: mass other-name claim. No role claims yet, please; we'll probably still need them secret from scum. I'm Commodore Amazing. Next to claim: Flying Dutchman.

Town: we'll almost certainly want to lynch d_rouge and Flying Dutchman today. If they're SK and scum, we need to get rid of half their killing ability.

[?YouYou?]

vote: ?Charlie?

He's scum. One half of the serial killer to be precise.

d_rouge = SK = at most 1 other person votes with him
Flying Dutchman = possible scum = at most 2 other people vote with him

vote: Flying Dutchman

. I'm not very sure who I can trust, but at worst, lynching both the primary accounts get us to a game with 3 townie + 2 scum + 1 SK, where the SK and scum need to kill each other in order to win. That's not that bad of a place to be.

This voting round should be revealing.

[?YouYou?]

One less nightkill should be worth at least as much as a possible bad guy vote tomorrow, or am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something. The scum have to kill the SK anyway in order to win. We're not using ALL our votes on the SK.

Our main threat here is the mafia. If FD isn't mafia, that's fine; he's still half-alive, he can help us vote out scum in the next round. If he is mafia, the mafia can just wipe out the SK and probably outvote us next round.

This will put us in a fine position for a fair fight between mafia and town next round. The SK is pretty much done; I don't even think he's got a chance to throw the game in favor of the mafia as long as we lynch half of him after we lynch FD.

Also, it may be possible that the secondary cop role that you found is a scum role. That might explain why esme and ?esme? died and Seol/?Rainbow? died (not that we all didn't see that one coming...).

[?YouYou?]

A quick post without going through the numbers, but I feel it's important (important enough to keep me awake and making me get up again ):

Thinking about it some more makes me doubt we should take the gamble that FD is scum.

1) There were three kills last night.
2) I'm not sure the SK is a big enough threat for the mafia versus two masons and a cop.

I think we'll need to run some numbers on this.

Because of reason 2) I also think we should keep this discussion on taking out one SK and FD vs taking out 2 SK's for the moment. If we inadvertently out the masons we might be in big trouble.

I need to think about this...

unvote: Flying Dutchman

...

[?YouYou?]

vote: ?Impossible?

. Masons, this is the right play. Scum, pretend like you're not scum and vote with us. It's the only way you'll convince us to lynch the other half of d_rouge.

?Colinus?, I asked Strykker if d_rouge could be SK. I haven't got an answer back yet. Even if he is SK, this is still the right play. I'd reveal more, but the mafia shouldn't know...

@mepmuff - lynch ?Impossible? Lynch all liars. He was not misdirected. He is scum.

[?YouYou?]

I'm assuming the mod error has something to do with misdirecting or otherwise how the scum power roles tried to use their abilities. My vote stands. We'll find out later. If it's something totally crazy, like d_rouge is mason, scum, and SK, well... there are worse ways to lose the game.

@?Impossible? - There are eight players left in the game. Four of them are mason buddies. We don't need to explain anything to you, I'm afraid. You should have killed me when you had the chance.

[?YouYou?]

@Masons - Now that we have absolute control over the vote, I say we take out Flying Dutchman. I expect that BrianMcQueso was the SK and that FD and mepmuff are scum, since their claims match each other's. I suspect that they used their scum powers to investigate Quailman and myself but didn't know d_rouge's role and guessed that he was SK. I suspect they were generally surprised that there were six masons in the game.

This will leave us at 4 townie, 2 scum with the scum only able to kill one of us off. That leaves 3 townies vs. 2 scum, which we can obviously win. Hooray!

Scum, please kill ?Charlie? at night.

[?YouYou?]

Huh. Now I don't know what to think. Sorry, BMQ.

vote: Flying Dutchman

. I get the feeling that ?Charlie? might be the SK as well as a mason, but we need to take out the scum, and not the SK anyway. I asked Strykker for confirmation that my mason buddies aren't half-evil, and he didn't give me a response...