Mini 907: Tech Tree Mafia (End Game)

[Tarhalindur]

Ellibereth replaces MafiaSSK.

Note to MafiaSSK: You nearly got yourself modkilled for that post 473 (you should have asked the question via PM, and the answer is "no"). Luckily for your player slot, the replacement came in late yesterday, but your player slot has been penalized for your violation of Rule 0. I'm considering more extensive punishment for MafiaSSK as well. - Tar

[Jahudo]

Welcome Elli.

I have a few questions about Pom's latest posts, but don't want to step on Neto's toes, so he can be the first to respond.

I also don't want to step on Pom's toes if she plans to respond to Fishy's case, but there's a few things there I don't consider scumtells in this case and a few more where I think Chaco and maybe others are better examples of those scumtells.

Also waiting for Chaco reaction/defense.

[Ellibereth]

Heya guys. Who're we lynching?

[Sajin]

@Sajin: You want to be shooting opposing scum. I'm under the impression you consider me to be opposing scum. I'm not, and whether or not shooting at me will do any serious damage (this post is in no way supposed to make a claim in either direction), it's not the best use of your shot tonight. If you are thinking about shooting at me, please tell me why and I'll try to talk you out of it. It's a bad move for both of us.
I take your point about not needed a doublekill on night 1. I had momentarily forgotten that people already had abilities by then.

I am thinking about shooting you. I have a strong feeling that you are opposing scum. I also think you would be very difficult to lynch....is that not an optimal kill target from my perspective?

You were willing to put 4 different people under haiku lynch. Explain to me how that is protown? I was legitimately scumhunting when I said that about you.



And welcome to the game Eli.

I have a simple question, how many tech tree powers do you have? I am curious if SSK missed submissions on some. No need to claim what they are, just how many.

[Ellibereth]

1 :/
Can I have a Rapid fire overview of current game state please. Thanks!

[Netopalis]

Wow, that's pretty sad.

The town correctly lynched Malthusis yesterday. Sajin claimed as his scum partner, going for the tech ability which lets him win if he's the last surviving member of his faction. Therefore, we're looking for a separate scum team. The discussion has focused the pool to the following 4:

SSK (Now Ellibereth)
Pomegranate
Chaco
Jules (Now Jahudo)

I advanced the theory that the potential scumteams are SSK/Pom and Chaco/Jules. Other people have advanced other theories. Also, there's only 20 pages of discussion and the game has tended to drag rather than sprint.

[Pomegranate]

Reputation (Triggered) - If you are the last surviving member of your faction, you win the game and remove yourself from the game. This effect does not end the game.

(Note: If there are multiple scum factions in the game, they count as a single faction for the purposes of this ability.)

Sajin can only win if the other scumteam dies first.

[Netopalis]

Oh. Yeah, sorry, forgot to include that tidbit.

[Pomegranate]

Sorry, it looked as though you were implying that that wasn't the case.

[Netopalis]

Meh, I had forgotten about the addendum to the rules. Wasn't intentional. The situation remains.

[Pomegranate]

Meh, I had forgotten about the addendum to the rules. Wasn't intentional. The situation remains.

I guess, but I think that it actually really changes things for Sajin.

[Fishythefish]

I am thinking about shooting you. I have a strong feeling that you are opposing scum. I also think you would be very difficult to lynch....is that not an optimal kill target from my perspective?

You were willing to put 4 different people under haiku lynch. Explain to me how that is protown? I was legitimately scumhunting when I said that about you.

Please, please read my responses to you from yesterday again (though you can skip the "Sajin is probably scum" bits). I never, ever aimed to put anyone under haiku. I always wanted a proper lynch - and this is reflected in my votes. The only way I ever manipulated the haiku system was, when it looked like we couldn't get a real lynch, putting malt up for haiku instead of me. The fact that, 4 times, after I voted people, they were at haiku, is really just restating the fact that we had lots of small disjointed wagons yesterday - from the game situations at the time, there's clearly no intent from me to have a haiku lynch. Practically all the votes from yesterday that weren't 1st votes for someone will have put someone at haiku.
I think you may be letting the fact that I nailed you and your partner cloud your judgement. There's a good reason that nobody else in the game is suspicious of me.

I think Elli shouldn't claim anything about tech powers - including how many he has. Because it may very well be that at some stage, some scum or another has a very difficult decision about who is most likely to die when shot, and that is a bad thing to give them any clues about.

[Netopalis]

Ellibereth already claimed the number of tech powers.

[Jahudo]

Neto, are you going to respond to Pom's iso's about you?

There's a good reason that nobody else in the game is suspicious of me.

Vaya was kinda scummy for complaining about the high level of strategy talk to low level of scumhunting (when her posts were all strategy and no scumhunting, just opportunistic votes), but you have looked town through your player analysis and questioning.

Though being right about malty and Sajin scum don't makes us town. With another scum faction they can now be considered mislynches. So Sajin does have a point there, saying you were open to alot of people getting into the haiku lynch.

@Fishy: I'm trying to wrap my head around when and why you at one time thought SSK could be scum if Pom flipped scum.

@Neto: what are you other grounds for thinking SSK scum? I find the link to Pom weak, and, in general, I think hunting for multiple scum with no information is a bad plan at this stage - because it's much less likely you are right about two scum than one.

SSK is likely scum if Pom is scum based on the connections between them, which are documented elsewhere.

What changed between these two posts to make you open to thinking about connections? It reads like you initially had a problem with linking people in general, rather than not seeing possible connections between SSK and Pom.

So when you said this today:

I thought I'd looked at the Pom-SSK connection yesterday, and liked it. Actually, I thought it was a bit of an irrelevance for yesterday, and never really looked at it. It's not really there. However, Pom is scum. So that's ok. I'll get all the reasoning for this in one place tonight.

I can see where you liked it and said it was an irrelevance, but not how you balanced those two positions or went from one to the other. And I think you did look at it, because you respond to Neto and others directly about their cases.

[Netopalis]

Yeah, sorry, I had forgotten about it. I'll have something up in a few hours or so.

[Netopalis]

Netopalis:

D1- Is pro-BP, as shown in iso post 1, 3. Neutral.

Policy votes SSK. Neutral.

(iso 7) Gives a couple of fuzzy reads on Cobalt and Chaco. Useless posting.

Useless? Meh, I wouldn't say useless. D1 was a pretty rough day for everybody, and nobody really felt good about any reads.

Votes Chaco to avoid no-lynch.

D2

(iso 10) Asks for a lot of content from Chaco right off the bat D2, when he had hardly given any reads or content himself D1. I don't like how this.

Sure, I didn't give much content D1. However, honestly, there just wasn't that much info out on D1. Not much is better than nothing, though, which is what Chaco contributed.

(iso 11) Accuses Chaco of having fluffy posts, when the few posts he has are also a bit fluffy. Not good either.

I'd argue that my posts are more substantial than most players by that point. Certainly more than Chaco's or SSKs.

Admits that he hadn't given many (or any?) real suspicions, but implies that his were clearer that Chaco's.

They were. Chaco was getting tripped up on D1, unable to take a position.

(iso 12) admits that his reasons were flimsy.

(iso 13/15) says that everyone needs to post suspicions to get the game moving. All he's done is question Chaco on flimsy evidence. Also, he says that he finds both Juls and SSK very suspicious, but he doesn't explain why. The only thing that makes sense is that it's on grounds of lurking. I don't like the lack of explanation.

Lurking and lack of taking position were my main problems. The game-wide problem, though, was the fact that we were stuck in the RVS for all of D1, and then we realized, "Oh, crap, we have a deadline!" So, we didn't get much useful stuff out of D1.

(iso 22) Votes SSK after he repeatedly refuses to post content. Makes fine sense.

Later explains that he can't see from the game UK linked to that SSK was helpful, because SSK didn't post (or posted once, I forget). I agree with this.

(iso 33) Votes me when I vote SSK.

The vote was based on your lack of independent reasoning.

(iso 40) Doesn't really explain his vote on Malthusis other than "he's likely scum". (Yes, those are his words.) It's very hypocritical, because the reason that Neto vor=ted for me was because I didn't really explain my SSK vote in advance. Now he jumps on a wagon forming on Malthusis doing worse.

We needed to lynch before the deadline, I didn't want to go into Haiku again and I knew that we weren't going to get a wagon together on you or SSK.

(iso 42) Didn't really have much content in it, despite what it looked like.

You didn't think so? I thought that it was fairly good independent reasoning, as did most players.

I don't like Neto's play. I will possibly vote him after I check the most recent vote count.

[Ellibereth]

Actually....

Unvote, vote: MafiaSSK

Not-so-random. A policy vote is better than a random vote.

Neto's town.

Vote: Neto

.

Tech Victory isn't cool, and pulling a mass tech victory would make this game nothing more than pick off the sitting ducks. Also, even if we, as a whole, decide against it. I still suspect some will go for it.

He's probably on the Tech Victory Track haha.

I agree with UncertainKitty. Setup speculation needs to stop because not only are we giving away what our plans are but giving scum ideas on what they should do. So lets drop it. Saying things like "someone should go for this..." will lead to multiple people going for that. I think if everyone plays it their own way we will have a nice shakeout of abilities.

With that being said I have more town reads on people than scum reads at this point so lets discuss mafia shall we, not tech-tree.

Juls is probably town.

I'm going to clarify as I don't want to get done in by a non-existent slip. After rereading I remember what I was saying. I was trying to get him to think like scum would as he was majorly tunneling how amazing BP was, when in fact it's almost near useless. So, I've been trying to get people to realize that every measure up there has an extreme countermeasure. So, that's it in a nutshell.

lolwut? Not sure if the slip was slip with 2 scumteams though.

I'm not sure if I fully comprehend the conditions the haiku rule takes effect in, so I'm not sure if it's going to take effect right now, but I really want to make sure we don't no lynch.

Unvote
Vote: Chaco

Let's hurry up and get our votes on someone.

Our dear Lurker!!!!...is not scum with Chaco.

Just quickly posting to avoid force-replacement.

I'll try to get to this game soon.

Actually she's probably town.

Stopped reading there. Alphaalpha scumteam is Pom Chaco right now by PoE. Finish later.

[Jahudo]

(iso 10) Asks for a lot of content from Chaco right off the bat D2, when he had hardly given any reads or content himself D1. I don't like how this.

What did you mean to say in that second sentence?

(iso 22) Votes SSK after he repeatedly refuses to post content. Makes fine sense.

Later explains that he can't see from the game UK linked to that SSK was helpful, because SSK didn't post (or posted once, I forget). I agree with this.

(iso 33) Votes me when I vote SSK.

You suspected malty at that point, but SSK was voting malty and that didn't affect your decision to vote SSK.

So did you have a problem with Neto voting you but also suspecting SSK, for the reason that you also suspected SSK? How are those two examples different?

(iso 42) Didn't really have much content in it, despite what it looked like.

What did it look like?

[Chaco]

Back now, responding to all later.

[Chaco]

Love how Neto blames his D1 on me. Neto, what is your definition for "tripping up" because it's quite clear to me that I was the only one with a clear cut opposition to all BP. Many disregarded it, but I do not feel as if it would be tripping up.

Jah is pretty much on me about not scumhunting, we've already been down this road on D1. It's far null. On D2, yeah, I did. Feigning activity by parroting a case on Pom...I can do it if you want.

Pom, it's because you're scum.

Still wanting a Pom lynch. Noting those veering from it.

[Ellibereth]

Love how Neto blames his D1 on me. Neto, what is your definition for "tripping up" because it's quite clear to me that I was the only one with a clear cut opposition to all BP. Many disregarded it, but I do not feel as if it would be tripping up.

Jah is pretty much on me about not scumhunting, we've already been down this road on D1. It's far null. On D2, yeah, I did. Feigning activity by parroting a case on Pom...I can do it if you want.

Pom, it's because you're scum.

Still wanting a Pom lynch. Noting those veering from it.

I didn't get to Jahudo yet but Juls is nice and happy.
Anyway, sure.

Vote: Pom

[Ellibereth]

Hey. has anyone brought up Vaya/Pom scumteam yet???

[Fishythefish]

@Fishy: I'm trying to wrap my head around when and why you at one time thought SSK could be scum if Pom flipped scum.

@Neto: what are you other grounds for thinking SSK scum? I find the link to Pom weak, and, in general, I think hunting for multiple scum with no information is a bad plan at this stage - because it's much less likely you are right about two scum than one.

SSK is likely scum if Pom is scum based on the connections between them, which are documented elsewhere.

What changed between these two posts to make you open to thinking about connections? It reads like you initially had a problem with linking people in general, rather than not seeing possible connections between SSK and Pom.

So when you said this today:

I thought I'd looked at the Pom-SSK connection yesterday, and liked it. Actually, I thought it was a bit of an irrelevance for yesterday, and never really looked at it. It's not really there. However, Pom is scum. So that's ok. I'll get all the reasoning for this in one place tonight.

I can see where you liked it and said it was an irrelevance, but not how you balanced those two positions or went from one to the other. And I think you did look at it, because you respond to Neto and others directly about their cases.

Yesterday, I wasn't much interested in connections. I was scumhunting in a pool of 8 players, with 28 possible scum pairs. Today, there are 5 players, and 10 possible scum pairs - which falls to 6 if you have just 1 town read. That's a very manageable number of pairings to look at, and it makes pairing logic much, much more valuable.
My initial read both says that I didn't see a Pom-SSK connection and that I thought connections in general weren't a good way of scumhunting at that stage. Particularly between two players who weren't particularly high on my list of suspicions.
This morning, I simply misremembered my previous thinking. For some reason (I don't know why) I thought I had liked the Pom-SSK link. This is probably related to not caring that much about it one way or the other yesterday.

Though being right about malty and Sajin scum don't makes us town. With another scum faction they can now be considered mislynches. So Sajin does have a point there, saying you were open to alot of people getting into the haiku lynch.

That last sentence makes me uncomfortable. Sajin's point about me being open to haikuing a lot of people is flat out wrong, as a brief reread would tell you. Parroting it like this is horrible - particularly when, for the purposes of today, he's confirmed protown.

[Jahudo]

Elli: Vaya didn't interact with Pom, but looking back there is an interesting thing that Pom did. She acknowledged that the town forgot Vaya was in the game, but she didn't pressure vote her. But earlier in the game Pom acknowledged she forgot Malty was in the game, and she didn pressure vote her.

@Pom: Why didn't you vote Vaya back then?

Fishy: Being open to something is not the same as preferring something. I know you wanted a real lynch if it could happen. But you also were open to lynching three different people; two are now mislynches and the third I think is town.

[Pomegranate]

Netopalis:

D1- Is pro-BP, as shown in iso post 1, 3. Neutral.

Policy votes SSK. Neutral.

(iso 7) Gives a couple of fuzzy reads on Cobalt and Chaco. Useless posting.

Useless? Meh, I wouldn't say useless. D1 was a pretty rough day for everybody, and nobody really felt good about any reads.

Votes Chaco to avoid no-lynch.

D2

(iso 10) Asks for a lot of content from Chaco right off the bat D2, when he had hardly given any reads or content himself D1. I don't like how this.

Sure, I didn't give much content D1. However, honestly, there just wasn't that much info out on D1. Not much is better than nothing, though, which is what Chaco contributed.

(iso 11) Accuses Chaco of having fluffy posts, when the few posts he has are also a bit fluffy. Not good either.

I'd argue that my posts are more substantial than most players by that point. Certainly more than Chaco's or SSKs.

Admits that he hadn't given many (or any?) real suspicions, but implies that his were clearer that Chaco's.

They were. Chaco was getting tripped up on D1, unable to take a position.

(iso 12) admits that his reasons were flimsy.

(iso 13/15) says that everyone needs to post suspicions to get the game moving. All he's done is question Chaco on flimsy evidence. Also, he says that he finds both Juls and SSK very suspicious, but he doesn't explain why. The only thing that makes sense is that it's on grounds of lurking. I don't like the lack of explanation.

Lurking and lack of taking position were my main problems. The game-wide problem, though, was the fact that we were stuck in the RVS for all of D1, and then we realized, "Oh, crap, we have a deadline!" So, we didn't get much useful stuff out of D1.

(iso 22) Votes SSK after he repeatedly refuses to post content. Makes fine sense.

Later explains that he can't see from the game UK linked to that SSK was helpful, because SSK didn't post (or posted once, I forget). I agree with this.

(iso 33) Votes me when I vote SSK.

The vote was based on your lack of independent reasoning.

(iso 40) Doesn't really explain his vote on Malthusis other than "he's likely scum". (Yes, those are his words.) It's very hypocritical, because the reason that Neto vor=ted for me was because I didn't really explain my SSK vote in advance. Now he jumps on a wagon forming on Malthusis doing worse.

We needed to lynch before the deadline, I didn't want to go into Haiku again and I knew that we weren't going to get a wagon together on you or SSK.

(iso 42) Didn't really have much content in it, despite what it looked like.

You didn't think so? I thought that it was fairly good independent reasoning, as did most players.

I don't like Neto's play. I will possibly vote him after I check the most recent vote count.

So your response is basically that no one really did anything D1.

Also, you say that you had clearer suspicions than Chaco D1. Please give a link to a post- I can't find a post with any suspicions from you D1.

--

What did you mean to say in that second sentence?

I either meant 'I don't like this' or 'I don't like how this looks'.

--

You suspected malty at that point, but SSK was voting malty and that didn't affect your decision to vote SSK.

So did you have a problem with Neto voting you but also suspecting SSK,

for the reason that you also suspected SSK

? How are those two examples different?

I got somewhat confused by this, but I read it a few times, and I think that the answer is no. The main part that confused me is italicized.

--

What did it look like?

This, which looked like a lot of content, but didn't seem to be very much to me when picked apart:

Alright. Sorry about my activity during this game. I think that, since the game hasn't really had a great deal of analysis - more like rushed deadline votes - it's played contrary to my normal playstyle. Here's an attempt to inject some cold, hard logic:

Here is a list of players in the game:

6) Sajin, representative of the Korath Clan
7) Chaco, representative of the Krynn Consulate
8) Juls, representative of the Terran Alliance
9) netopalis, representative of the Dominion of Korx
10) FishytheFish (rep. Vaya), representative of the Iconian Refuge
11) MafiaSSK, representative of the Yor Collective
12) Pomegranate, representative of the Thalan Empire

Given that I know that I am innocent, and that we know that Sajin is a member of the Egyptian Mafia, we have the following potential list of second family scum:

7) Chaco, representative of the Krynn Consulate
8) Juls, representative of the Terran Alliance
10) FishytheFish (rep. Vaya), representative of the Iconian Refuge
11) MafiaSSK, representative of the Yor Collective
12) Pomegranate, representative of the Thalan Empire

FishytheFish's play in this game has, I think, been beyond amazing. He has been one of the most solid pro-town forces in the game, and I would be utterly shocked if he were scum. Rather, scum's best opportunity in this game was to simply play on the inactivity and go for those deadline lynches. This means never really stating a strong opinion or pushing for any action - this is consistent with Malt and Sajin's play. Without Fishy, we're looking at:


7) Chaco, representative of the Krynn Consulate
8) Jahudo, representative of the Terran Alliance
11) MafiaSSK, representative of the Yor Collective
12) Pomegranate, representative of the Thalan Empire

A SSK/Pom scumteam has been brought up in the past. I think that it is entirely probable. Additionally, I think that a Chaco/Jahudo scumteam is extremely possible. Chaco defends Juls several times. Juls "randomly" votes Chaco at first, which scum often do, and later revotes him for a vague reason - "Liking Percy's attack" without explaining why. Jahudo leaves Chaco out of his multi-player analysis, which I think is also suspicious. He later defends Chaco as a probable town player. I'm more convinced of the Chaco-Juls/Jahudo scumteam.

Unvote, vote: Chaco

.

--

Pom, it's because you're scum.

What's because I'm scum?

--

Vaya didn't interact with Pom, but looking back there is an interesting thing that Pom did. She acknowledged that the town forgot Vaya was in the game, but she didn't pressure vote her. But earlier in the game Pom acknowledged she forgot Malty was in the game, and she didn pressure vote her.

@Pom: Why didn't you vote Vaya back then?

Give me a chance to reread that. I don't think I have much more time tonight, but I should have a chance tomorrow.