Newbie 920: Mafia in Newbietown (Game over! Town wins!)

[mariomaster777]

Alright. Questions to all players:

1) What experience, if any, do you have in playing the game of Mafia?
2) Please describe your playstyle. Do you feel that you are more biased towards logic or gut? How would you describe your reasoning process?
3) Why do you play Mafia?
4) Is it an African Swallow or a European Swallow?
5) Would you prefer playing as town or as scum? Why?
6) Would you agree with the statement, "Lynch all Liars"? Why? How about the statement "You appear to be too townie, therefore you must be scum" or "Never lynch a claimed power role on the same day that the player claims"?

I will be giving my answers after everybody else has answered, as to avoid biasing the answers of everybody else.

1. I have played live mafia as a "social builder" for one of my clubs on campus. I have also played a few mafia games on other forums and have hosted a 20+ themed mafia on the same forum 7 different times.

2. I try my best to base decisions based on pure logic. However, I track my gut feelings. If I feel that the logic I come up with for a decision is weak, I may decide off gut feeling rather than making a poor decision based off logic that may be flawed.

3. It's a battle of wits and deception, sometimes with a little probability/statistics thrown in. Sort of like how I enjoy playing poker. Besides, who doesn't like a good mystery?

4. I don't know...... AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

5. Tough question since there are benefits to both sides. Being a townie, I get to use my logic to discover the truth. It's like figuring out a puzzle. Being scum, you already know who is "good" and who is "bad" so there is less of a puzzle to figure out (doctors and inspectors are nice to figure out). But then you get to act in a deceptive manner, which is always fun.

6. a) No. A doctor could lie in an attempt to protect himself/herself. And if you're on the town side, lynching the doctor is obviously a mistake.
b) You can't be "too" townie. There are quiet townies, aggressive townies, and all in the between. Since the range is so wide, scum can act in a variety of ways as well.
c) I haven't played in many games where people outright claim a power role. In games with very few scum, if scum attempted to claim a power role, it might be advantageous for the true power role to reveal themselves. Trading a power role for a scum early in the game is a good deal since the numbers advantage is still there. So in this case, no. I would lynch the original claimed power role. Course, it could backfire if people side with the original revealer (who is lying). I would hope though the exchange both people eventually get lynched, leading to the early trade advantage described above. If it's late in the game, losing a doctor for a scum might be a bad idea. Perhaps some math is involved here.

[mariomaster777]

I have questions too!

A) If you're pro-town and someone else that is pro-town votes to lynch you, is someone playing badly? If so, who?
B) If you were pro-town and were almost certainly going to be lynched, what would you do?
C) Under what circumstances is it okay to list or not list your suspects?
D) When someone votes a new suspect, should that person explain why they unvoted their old suspect too?
E) If someone doesn't answer a question, does that make them scum, scummy, or just annoying?

A. Nope. This situation is likely to happen. There is very little information (if any at all) at the start of a game. Day phase 1 is likely to be very arbitrary in terms of voting content, and you get a whole smorgasbord of reasons behind votes. Not to mention that people interpret things in different ways. Your response to a question might look perfectly fine to you, but someone else may interpret it in a way that makes you look like scum.

B. Give the best logical defense I could. I would argue both sides: reasons I am a townie and reasons I am scum. Then I'd put it on the players to make the most informed decision they could.

C. I do not like sharing my list of suspects in a public setting. It gives scum more information to work with, and can create opportunities to send the townies on a wild goose chase. Of course, if you are scum, sharing your thoughts with your teammates in a private setting is always advantageous.

D. It depends. Sometimes the information you gain to change your vote is enough. "This is just a better vote than my old one." You may still suspect the old vote, but at the time the new vote is for someone you suspect more. Other times you unvote someone because you believe they are not scum, but you don't have a good reason for your next vote.

E. Avoiding a question doesn't mean scum. Power roles on the townie side need to avoid detection as well. Plus, some questions are designed to provoke someone into saying something they might regret, or might be interpreted the wrong way. It could be a good strategy for scum to pose such questions and create a witch hunt.

[mariomaster777]

To the people posing questions: It would be helpful if you also answered your own questions. Thanks.

[mariomaster777]

Random voting is unfortunately the norm on this site - I choose not to partake because I feel that its results are questionable. As I said earlier, I'll be answering my questions last, just so that my answers don't end up being everybody else's answers. I once played a game in which I answered first, and the other players basically potsed, "Yeah, what he said." Absolutely unhelpful.

My bad. Must have missed that final line in your original post.

[mariomaster777]

I find your analysis interesting Netopalis. The majority (if not all) of the players you have pro-town reads on are, in your mind, "logic style" players. Those who you distrust are those who have no logic behind their answers, or have a waffling style. Is this something you've picked up with your experience, or is it because these players align with your playing style and you'd like to keep them around a bit longer?

I certainly have my gut feelings at this point, but felt a post was at least warranted so I can stay in the conversation at hand. I'm not comfortable sharing who I suspect, as I can't make a strong enough argument to cast my vote. You'll remember from my answer to Unsight's questions that I don't like publicly sharing my suspect list.

[mariomaster777]

Question: Does the deadline the GM posted refer to when the game has to end or when day 1 has to end? It seems we're spending a lot of time on the 1st phase, but maybe I'm just used to the 48 hour rule per day phases I play on the other site.

[mariomaster777]

I certainly have my gut feelings at this point, but felt a post was at least warranted so I can stay in the conversation at hand. I'm not comfortable sharing who I suspect, as I can't make a strong enough argument to cast my vote. You'll remember from my answer to Unsight's questions that I don't like publicly sharing my suspect list.

How do you see yourself helping the town if you're only making posts to "stay in the conversation?" How is that any different than lurking?

It's not any different from lurking. In fact it's my playing style not to vote until I am confident (ideally VERY confident) in my thought process. I like to be sure before making accusations. Some may disagree with this playing style, claiming that the only way to get reactions out of people is to accuse them. I do see merit in this playing style, but its just something I am not strong in and as such avoid making accusations without what I feel is good evidence.

I fail to understand why lurking has such a negative connotation to it. Yes, I could be perceived as "unhelpful," but I would much rather be overly cautious and avoid giving scum the opportunity to send the town on a wild goose chase based off of any flawed logic that may be posted. I don't want to contribute negatively towards the town's efforts and not know it. I am very used to people bandwagon voting on the other site I play on, and as such have adapted my playing style to avoid saying something that could start a chain of votes in the wrong direction simply because I misread a situation.

Perhaps I should readjust my playing style for this game because it seems like the risk of blind bandwagon voting is much lower for our group of players.

[mariomaster777]

Oh it makes perfect sense. It's just my playing style. I seem to make few posts, but they are usually of sufficient length to properly contribute.

[mariomaster777]

Note to self: Don't disappear over the weekend. I got a lot of catching up to do.

[mariomaster777]

Ok. Those homework assignments took WAY longer than expected. I was also on duty tonight (I'm a resident assistant), and a few things came up after I made the above post. It definitely cut into my "catching up time." Let me be as honest as I can in my current situation.

It's 3:30am right now. I just spent about 2 hours rereading the entire thread and taking notes. They are sitting on my computer in a notepad file. But they are a complete jumbled mess right now and need some organization before posting. I'll share my thoughts tomorrow. I'm starting to see with this game that it is really stupid of me to "wait until I am VERY sure before making an accusation." With all the posting, I keep forgetting that it's still Day 1, and it's going to be near impossible to be "VERY sure" about anything.

I have two exams next week. 1 on Tuesday, 1 on Wednesday. I get out of class tomorrow at 3pm. I promise to share my thoughts within an acceptable time frame (say before 5pm) I'll try to continue contributing, but until Wednesday hits, I might not have a chance to check the thread.

[mariomaster777]

The two exams meaning "THIS week" not next week. Sorry.

[mariomaster777]

Alright. So after an hour of fiddling with my power brick I decided it was time to get IT services to replace the damn thing. Now that I'm back with one of their "loaners" I can make a post. (That is of course until they realize tomorrow my computer is out of warranty and force me to give it back.)

I really do apologize for all the excuses/delays but in the last 24 hours NOTHING has gone right for me. Let me organize my thoughts.

[mariomaster777]

I'll be up front about this. These are mostly

gut reactions.

It's why I didn't feel comfortable about posting this earlier, but after having read some great arguments about why withholding your thoughts isn't really optimal, especially on day one, I suppose I better start saying something. To avoid a gigantic post, I won't quote anything but instead reference posts by number.

Fiyr:

I really don't like Fiyr's mass posting in a row. A pet peeve of mine is triple posting or more. However, but looking at the intent behind it, it shows a player whose mind is constantly keeping tabs on what is going on with everyone. She really does go out of her way to address multiple topics of discussion involving multiple players. (See the string of posts starting near 208). Perhaps an argument for pro-town.

Unsight challenged Fiyr's unvote in post (237), and Fiyr's response is
very close after. In a nutshell, the reasoning is that she doesn't have a strong read on her current vote and doesn't want to accidentally contribute to a mislynch. This reasoning is similar in my style of play and shows an intent to avoid making costly mistakes. Of course, the converse could be true and someone may read this as a "well disguised waffling." Pulling a vote because you are unsure can make you LOOK like you don't want to be responsible for the town's downfall, and could thus have scum intent behind it. Course, having just written this, this is likely a good example of WIFOM thinking, and I should likely just flat out disregard this gut feeling.

FluffyGiggles

He went out of his way to point out that everyone shouldn't trust Netopalis at face value because of his status as an IC. Of course, Carl Sagan made the same argument with more confusing, and more aggressive language. Yet, people are pointing fingers at Carl Sagan, but not FluffyGiggles. I'm honestly confused by this inconsistency within the town, making a read on this specific player even harder. I really don't know if he's town or scum.

Netopalis

Said multiple times "if I were scum" in early posts. I know being an IC he has to make some of these posts in order to avoid an upcry from everyone that he could have "manipulated the game with his IC status if he's mafia". Saying you could be mafia once I think is fine. But three or four times? What is the intent behind the constant reminder?Is he going out of the way to say so? I'm not reading heavily onto this point, but it's making me suspicious.

Legions

Said in post 153 that he tends to be more to the point. Yet, (in my opinion) the entire post has very little substance. Admitting you are bad seems like an excuse to stay out of discussion.

In post 158, Legions does understand that Netopalis as scum would be very bad. I too fear the possibility that a talkative player could be scum and direct the town towards their doom. But again, I'm confused. The language of the post makes it seem like Legions suspects Netopalis, but won't follow through vote for him. To me that's being inconsistent, and a reason for suspicion. Perhaps a reason for this is that he wants to directly oppose Netopalis without casting a vote, making us believe he is against Netopalis when in fact they could be working together as scum. A possibility, but my evidence is weak at best.

Julano

I like Julano's summary (post 169) of Netopalis' post. Lays out potential options. I think summary posts like this help keep the town on track and aware of the discussion topics at hand. I would believe Julano to be pro-town due to the intent behind his posts.

McGriddle

I actually read McGriddle's "impatience" in post 177 as a way to "get the ball rolling." 11 pages in and no strong votes towards any one person, I think the town might be spinning its wheels. As a town member, perhaps McGriddle wants to thrust the discussion again.

However, the more I read McGriddle's posts, the more confused I become. I'm seeing very little logic in them except a flat out dislike of Carl Sagan. I don't like the reasoning behind McGriddle's vote and get this feeling that he is purposely trying to confuse the town, a scummy read. He is flat out ignoring Carl Sagan because he didn't like his first post, as shown in post 196.

Unsight

I know I said above that I would start sharing my thoughts based on people commenting that not sharing them fails to benefit anyone. Unsight is definitely one of the people who convinced me to change my ways up. But I have to wonder if the intent behind is positive or negative. It's played off of as "posting more is more fun." (Post 185.) It could be legitimate appeal to emotion, a townie trying to get its other players more involved and open up new areas of discussion, or a scum trying to get a townie to share lines of discussion that could be bad. I don't know. It could be very legit, or could be trying to get me to ease up on my fears of giving bad leads. Unsight calls it a "motivational speech." Perhaps these thoughts could be completely unrelated to the game at hand.


What is more relevant is that Unsight is asking many pointed and strong questions. Likely protown. Unsight's post in 214 makes a very good point. There is inconsistency here between McGriddle and Netopalis. I think this particular line of questioning could be looked at a bit more. It makes be believe that either McGriddle or Netopalis is scum but not both.

Unsight's sheer involvement in many conversations is a strong pro town read. In fact, I would be very shocked to find out if you were scum.

Carl Sagan

We've discussed Carl Sagan's interesting style of posting for quite some time. But I want to look at post 224. It seems very early to ask for doctor protection. In my opinion he is actually pro-town because of this. He could be the investigator or could be overly confident in his reading abilities. I don't think he's scum because asking for doctor protection in itself raises a red flag. It would be a

VERY VERY unusual move

to ask for protection since you are likely NOT to get it without more proof. Why ask for it if he is scum? So I think Carl Sagan is pro-town.




Thus, to wrap things up, I have three potential scummy leads. Legions, Netopalis, and McGriddle. Maybe FluffyGiggles, but it's a null read at this point. But of the three, I feel most strongly about legions. Strong enough to actually cast my vote.

Vote: Legions

[mariomaster777]

Damn. That was a block of text. Sorry everyone. Hopefully I put in enough carriage returns.

[mariomaster777]

Wanted to hop on real quick to see people's responses to my post.

@Fiyr: I noticed you asked a question of me a while back. No, my response to Netopalis in 184 was not meant to be sarcasm. I'm sorry if it came off that way.

No need to apologize for your posting style. Just sharing my thoughts. You will notice that I myself triple posted when I made that huge block of text, so I should take my own advice. Also, thanks for the tip on the "isolation feature."

@ Netopalis. I would be glad to share what I mean in greater detail. But please permit me more time to respond. My notes only vaguely talk about my gut reactions, and I will likely need to reread the conversation back on pages 7-9 to fully understand what I meant. Frankly I shouldn't be on this website right now. Lots of studying to do.

And with that, I'm definitely getting off the Internet.

[mariomaster777]

Just wanted to stop by. My tests are finally done with for the week. I apologize for not being on the site in the last 48 hours.

I see we have a replacement. Nice to see you Ythan.

I'll be up to speed tomorrow as it is 1am right now my time.

[mariomaster777]

EBWODP: Ythan, not to be annoying, but do you mind answering the two sets of questions that are on page 1 of the thread? It will better "introduce" yourself for the sake of everyone else playing. Thanks in advance.

[mariomaster777]

@Netopalis

To answer your question regarding me mentioning an inconsistency between you and McGriddle, I'm gonna have to say I don't know what I was saying. It was terribly vague and poor language. I've gone back over the thread trying to make sense of my point and all I can come up with is this:

I was referring to the fact that Unsight posted you had two different reactions to McGriddle's vote and FluffyGiggle's vote. Both appeared to be "hasty" but you had two vastly different reactions to them. You have since answered Unsight's question regarding this, (a long time ago in fact. Post 63 from you in ISO) which is actually all I need to know. To be honest, the whole point of me even mentioning that was for evidence showing Unsight is on the town side. It wasn't meant to put you in bad light, but rather to show that Unsight is carefully analyzing the game at hand which is a town tell.



Now onto my additional thoughts based on what has happened so far.


I have more trust for Fiyr to be pro town now. Here's why.

3: What does 'posts content completely of his own' mean? Do you feel that any other players are posting content that are not completely of their own?

This is a bit difficult to explain what I meant so just beare with me. I don't mean this in a bad way towards anyone else either o.k.?
When a newbie joins a game, they build off of other peoples' posts and go from there.(I know I do this) But most of what he says is new things and new questions. I know other newbies have done this in this game too but, his just popped out at me.

This is in reference to my gigantic post in which I shared my thoughts on the game at hand. When questioned by FluffyGiggles on this point, I feel that your response is very appropriate. In my opinion, scum often try to hide behind other people's arguments and just flat out agree without contributing additional info. Having the insight to notice this trend or common tell gives me a little more confidence you are pro town.


I'm glad Ythan has pointed out the concept of viewing posts in isolation. (I didn't know what ISO stood for, but I figured it out now.) Looking at FluffyGiggles in ISO is VERY helpful. Sure, FluffyGiggles made only a few posts. But in my opinion, the majority (if not every single one) have good content in them. I feel more confident in FluffyGiggles being protown, as I had a null read before. I STRONGLY suggest everyone should analyze everyone else in ISO. It is a MUCH better indication of someone's playing style and commitment (or lack of commitment) towards the town's efforts.


Netopalis' post (#337 in global thread) mentions how Unsight has referenced McGriddle at least double the amount of anyone else. I think Unsight's 21 references could be due to a high volume of posts for many people. Naturally those that post more will reference other players more. This in itself doesn't necessarily raise suspicion. However, as you pointed out Netopalis, doing some more research wouldn't hurt.


I think Sagan has made his point many times over already. I still don't think he's scum for reasons I posted earlier, but the tunneling is getting annoying. Ever think for a second that you are "taking energy" away from the town by pursuing this line of questioning that has already been discussed over and over again? Sounds like beating a dead horse to me.



Summary:

I do not have additional scum reads, but I feel more confident in that Fiyr and FluffyGiggles are pro-town. I'm keeping my vote on Ythan for reasons regarding his predecessor. You'll note my vote had more reasons behind it than simple inactivity. My vote is certainly open to change, but I have no reason to change it as I don't have any additional scum reads, just as I have no reason to unvote it as well.



@Yathan (off-topic): I never noticed your quote before. I must ask about it since I somewhat know horrordude from another site. PM me if it's not appropriate to discuss in public.

[mariomaster777]

/\ Please excuse the typo in your name Ythan. Sorry about that.

[mariomaster777]

Gonna say this now. My flight back home to Texas is early morning Saturday. (Spring Break!!) I will be packing tomorrow and will likely lose the ability to get on the Internet. Do not expect me to be on until Saturday evening.

I realize now why newbies can only play in 1 game. I can't imagine what I would do if I was in more than 1 game right now.

[mariomaster777]

It makes it harder to tell if he's scummy or not, because he has another reason to behave the way he is. If someone is purely playing the game, then you can try to analyse their posts from an in-game context. However if someone is letting emotion colour their posts, then you have to factor in an adjustment which can apply to any alignment ... if that makes sense.

Plus if someone gives up, they aren't offering an argument to be analysed. They aren't offering anything to be analysed, they're just throwing themselves towards the noose and not helping town at all. Which makes for a good policy lynch, but doesn't really help pure scumhunting.

Again, I have no idea if that makes any kind of sense.

To me this makes perfect sense. Think along the lines of poker. If someone appears to be upset, you have to adjust your thinking patterns for this new information. People act differently when emotion gets in the way.




McGriddle, what do you mean when you say "I am such a terrible scum" and that "I haven't done anything that stupid." The newbie players in this game have absolutely no playing history with you, so a claim that you are terrible scum means absolutely nothing to us. We can't base decisions off such a claim.

[mariomaster777]

Seems like we're coming down to a decision point between Carl and McGriddle because of the deadline. Is this an accurate assumption?


I still think it's a mistake to lynch Carl Sagan. I'll stick with my original reasoning behind my believe he is pro-town. Carl hasn't provided any new information for me to go off of, and I still do not feel comfortable making a "shot in the dark" lynch.


On the other hand, the arguments against McGriddle are stronger. I am in complete agreement with Ythan's statement that:

"I think a Grid lynch will be more telling for Carl than a Carl lynch for Grid."

The day 1 lynch is the hardest because of lack of information. It make perfect sense for the town to make lynches which provide the most future information.

Let's consider the outcomes if Carl Sagan is lynched: 1. We find out he's scum and we are that much closer to winning. We also discover that McGriddle, Unsight, and Netopalis' suspicions on him were sound. OR 2. We find out that he's town and we had a mislynch. In my opinion we gain absolutely NOTHING from this result. Carl Sagan's play thus far has certainly not been helpful, and many people are complaining that he is a "bad" player. This result confirms that perhaps Carl played poorly, but nothing else is gained, making the day 2 lynch harder. We'd be starting from square one basically, having to decide if McGriddle is really scum or not. In all probability, I say that a lynch for Carl is basically rolling the dice, and this result will come up 7/9 times. I don't like those odds.

Now let's consider outcomes if McGriddle is lynched: 1. We find out he's scum, and again are that much closer to winning. It also shows that Ythan's suspicions are sound and that it is likely more than just this "bad blood" between them. Netopalis' suspicions are also proven to have weight behind them. OR 2. We find out he's town and we mislynched. This shows that McGriddle's suspicions of Carl are beyond a complete dislike of Carl, perhaps giving more weight to lynching Carl in day 2. As opposed to gaining nothing in the above case, we have a potential game plan to work off of. If we're going to mislynch (which is more likely than not in day 1), I'd rather gain information from it than gain nothing from it.


And for the reasons I've just stated:

Unvote, vote McGriddle

One more thing:

I'm somewhat concerned with Netopalis' vote change however. Reading into his reasoning, I'm going to say he believes it would be "easier" to lynch Carl Sagan over McGriddle. He also says that we can look at McGriddle the following day. However, in post 468, Netopalis states

"There is a stronger case on McGriddle's alignment than on Sagan's at this time, and it's better to present a weak case than no case at all."

Why the sudden switch? I believe there is a stronger case against McGriddle as well, and am very confused as to why you changed your vote just because the mod said we have 5 days left. This doesn't seem like a logical play to me. Care to elaborate?

[mariomaster777]

Mario tries to protect Carl

Carl Sagan

We've discussed Carl Sagan's interesting style of posting for quite some time. But I want to look at post 224. It seems very early to ask for doctor protection. In my opinion he is actually pro-town because of this. He could be the investigator or could be overly confident in his reading abilities. I don't think he's scum because asking for doctor protection in itself raises a red flag. It would be a

VERY VERY unusual move

to ask for protection since you are likely NOT to get it without more proof. Why ask for it if he is scum? So I think Carl Sagan is pro-town.

I still think it's a mistake to lynch Carl Sagan. I'll stick with my original reasoning behind my believe he is pro-town. Carl hasn't provided any new information for me to go off of, and I still do not feel comfortable making a "shot in the dark" lynch.

Itsa Mario's turn to do some 'splainin'.

Vote: mariomaster777

What can I say except that I was flat out wrong? Just like everyone else I'll be reevaluating day phase 1 and hopefully can come up with some conclusions.

In other news, I have an interview with Ernst & Young tomorrow, so I'll be preparing for that. If you don't mind, keep your fingers crossed for me. I'm in real need of a job before I graduate. Thanks.

[mariomaster777]

Well, nothing new really, just weighing up the options.

1. If we ask the cop to investigate a specific player, we can find out said player's alliegence without the cop claiming.
If the mafia kills that player, we cut down on the suspects but we DON'T end up with a confirmed, alive townie.

2. Either that or the cop plays independently and must decide if and when to claim.


Who are your top suspicions at the moment, Ythan?

Question. What happens if the cop gets killed off during the night? He/she obviously can't claim if he/she did discover the remaining scum. I guess all this means is that even if the town as a whole agrees that a specific person gets investigated, you learn nothing if the cop gets killed off.

Guess it's not a bad strategy since the likelyhood of it returning no help is rare. (and that's a worst case scenario, otherwise we get a confirmed townie or even better the remaining scum when the cop claims.)

[mariomaster777]

Question. What happens if the cop gets killed off during the night? He/she obviously can't claim if he/she did discover the remaining scum. I guess all this means is that even if the town as a whole agrees that a specific person gets investigated, you learn nothing if the cop gets killed off.

The cop can be killed regardless. Not sure what you're getting at.

I was thinking out loud in the post. What I was getting at is the fact that if the town as a whole asks the cop to investigate player X tonight, there is always the possibility the cop is killed tomorrow night. The cop cannot claim when the cop is dead, even if he/she discovers the remaining scum. Result is we learn NOTHING about player X, the plan backfires, and town ends up losing time. However, I did go on and say the probability of this happening is slim (scum have to get lucky and kill the cop), so it is a good strategy after all.

I have a pretty good idea. How about everyone claims cop at the end of each day, who they investigated, and what it came up as, that way if the real cop dies we know he was telling the truth and the people the cop investigated came up as what he said. And real cop, tell the truth about that person/people.

does this sound pretty fair?

Let me rephrase this so I understand it properly before I evaluate it. This effectively creates an "insurance policy" if the cop dies. If this strategy is executed this round, we will learn the cop's true investigation for night phase 1

if the cop dies.

If the cop doesn't die, repeat again at day phase 3, and now we will know two true investigations when the cop dies. Etc.

Benefits:
Learning true investigations for every night phase up until the cop dies.

Cons:
The cop must die for any information posted to materialize. However, chances are if the cop stays alive he/she will likely investigate the remaining scum and can then properly claim at that time.

If the cop remains alive when 3 people are left, scum could claim cop potentially getting at a WIFOM situation. All scum has to do is claim one player innocent, and state the other player must be scum. This pits the 3rd player against the one claiming cop, and the one being claimed to be scum. The 3rd player must decide if the claimer is truly the cop or is lying.


I'll also point to both of Unsight's problems with this strategy.



Honestly, I think it's more trouble than it's worth. I'd rather go with the town agreement on who should be tonight's investigation. However, this relies on the fact that the cop will indeed investigate the agreed upon player and not go off on their own for investigations.

[mariomaster777]

Ok. Let me put it in a different way. This strategy requires a lot more coordination than a simple "agree upon who to investigate strategy." What happens if someone neglects to put down their investigation? The strategy itself becomes broken. Scum could figure that the player not putting down an investigation is not a cop. For this to properly work, all must be onboard with it and

follow through

with it.

I'm just saying that a lynch could happen before everyone places down their investigation result. This could happen for a number of reasons. Not everyone has the ability to check the thread daily. If you're away when voting closes and you didn't place your investigation down, then everything goes out the window. What would be even worse is if the real cop fails to put down their investigation, as nothing at all can be salvaged.


Unsight's two points still hold true too.

[mariomaster777]

EBYOP: Tell you what. Rather than me trying to find holes in the strategy, perhaps McGriddle or you can better explain to me why the strategy would work.

[mariomaster777]

I had an interview yesterday remember? Much of my day was spent preparing, so I could only address the most pressing issue. McGriddle was asking for feedback on his plan, and I gave it. It was a time critical issue since McGriddle posted this:

So everyone who agrees with the plan write "Yes" bolded at the bottom of their post.

yes

Having posted my thoughts, I put it back on McGriddle to better explain his plan and left. There was no reason to "stay" online until I got a response. In my opinion, he has NOT done this, so I am not convinced that we should use this plan.



With that settled in my mind, I turn my attention to reviewing day 1. I'll post my thoughts after I've combed through the 26 page thread.

[mariomaster777]

Alright I'll be honest. I've been doing a terrible job of keeping up with this game. Frankly I should replace out because of time constraints, but I'll try and do better. I'll go over the thread right now because for some reason I can't sleep and I'm all wired up on caffeine. Let's see what I get in an hour.

[mariomaster777]

After rereading through the first 11 pages of the thread, here is what stood out to me after having now known Carl Sagan is scum and Netopalis is the Doctor. All post numbers I reference are in global context. NOT ISOs.


Netopalis's gut instinct when asked by McGriddle early in the game was against Legions. Post 63.


Juliano in post 108 says he "likes fact that Carl got straight into the game." Juliano initially thought Carl was pro-town. However, Juliano goes on to say that he disagrees with Carl's analysis against Netopalis. This makes me believe Juliano is truly analyzing Carl's argument from an objective viewpoint. This makes me believe Juliano is pro-town.


FluffyGiggles post in 127 also seems very analytical in nature. He agreed with Sagan not to let Netopalis run the entire game. We know now that Sagan was scum and Neto was the Doctor. But let's look at the thought behind the post. This information wasn't known in round 1. FluffyGiggles makes a good point that Netopalis was "very honest" in his answers regarding his leadership as an IC. This somewhat discounted Carl's argument against Netopalis. Knowing Carl's argument was wrong by reason of him being scum, I hypothesize that, just like above with Juliano, FluffyGiggles has a pro-town read.


Post 128. Netopalis' initial reactions to everyone in the game. Again, I point out he suspected Legions. Netopalis points to the appeal to emotion response given by Legions in post 81. In my opinion it wasn't necessary to post "Maybe I can explain myself?" There was nothing to explain at the time since zero evidence was given against Legions except a flat out gut reaction by Netopalis. Why be so quick to offer a defense when there is nothing to defend? It's seemed fishy to Netopalis, and it still seems fishy to me. I still think Legions is scum, and Ythan has stepped into that role.


McGriddle's post were much more "softer" in language earlier in the thread. Ythan has fired him up with this whole back and forth argument. I think Ythan is trying to do this on purpose. Still the complete change of character is disturbing. It's like McGriddle has become a different person when compared to the beginning of the game. I really hope you can go back to your old ways. You seemed much more logical back then. Then again, it is difficult to just ignore Ythan's constant hammering.


Post 153. Legions admits he has a bad nose for sniffing out suspicious activity. In my opinion, those who don't know what to look for have nothing to look for. Perhaps a scum tell. Unsight can attest to these thoughts as he posted this in 164.


Post 158. Legions posts this:

I kind of agree with your list though I guess. I'm just a bit confused about your reasoning against Carl Sagan. I don't necessarily disagree, but I guess I need slight elaboration. You're saying it seems like he kind of forced arguing with you for no real reason?

If people are pointing fingers of suspicion at me because I supported Sagan, this shows I wasn't the only one. The question becomes was Legions truly confused by Netopalis' argument against Sagan so early, or was he trying to protect his scummy teammate?


Post 189 by McGriddle is a great defense to Netopalis' questioning regarding McGriddle's vote on Sagan. The vote was one of the first ones on Sagan, and in my opinion it makes it more legit. Sure, call it WIFOM, but I'm looking at the logic and intent behind the post. Please read:

I had 8 posts before I established my suspicions on Sagan. My biggest thing is he came on, threw out his suspicions and disappeared. Post 168 I clearly don't know if its you or Sagan. I unvoted. You came back and defended yourself against my accusations fairly well, Sagan has done nothing of the sort, so naturally I put my vote on who I think is scum, Sagan.

I think he's pro-town having now known that Sagan is scum. This is probably the most compelling gut feeling I have right now. And you will note in day phase 1 I was really pushing for McGriddle's lynch. I was completely 100% flat out wrong with my push to avoid lynching Carl Sagan at the end of day 1, so in rereading things, I am reevaluating my position on players.




Posts 197 by Carl Sagan. The first half of the post seems to be using straight up logic. Could it be an attempt by Carl Sagan to point fingers at an innocent Fiyr? Again, this could be WIFOM, but why point fingers at your partner on day 1, especially when your words have some weight to them?

Hear me out on this point and let me elaborate. Having not known that Sagan is scum, the intentions behind Sagan's post appear to be legitimate. He suspects Fiyr and agrees with Juliano's reasoning. Now, having known that Sagan is scum, I reread this with caution.

Giving context, Juliano agreed with FluffyGiggles's posts regarding Fiyr. FluffyGiggles in 187 posts that Fiyr's contributions thus far were to "defend Netopalis from a range of shaky and jovial arguments." FluffyGiggles went on to question Fiyr as to why she was spending so much time defending Netopalis. Juliano agreed with fluffy's post in 194 by saying "see Fluffy's post". Carl then went on to agree with Carl Sagan.

What is the objective of mafia? To stay under the radar and create mislynches. Let me say that again, to

CREATE MISLYNCHES.

From a Mafia perspective, now is the PERFECT time to point additional suspicion at Fiyr. Who knows, this might take off into a line of questioning that ultimately lynches Fiyr. Now knowing that Carl is scum, reading into the logical style of the post, I read the intentions behind Carl Sagan's words in 197 to be trying to create a mislynch for Fiyr. By way of reasoning, Fiyr is pro-town.




Rereading my own initial analysis in 264. As I reread my own thoughts, I keep in mind concrete info I do now know. Carl is scum and Neto is the Doctor. My initial pro-town reads were on Carl, Unsight, Fiyr, and Julano. My scum reads were Neto, McGriddle, and Legions. Most strongly on Legions.

I now know my reasoning for Carl was 100% wrong. But what was the reasoning? Carl's gambit to ask for doctor protection. In post 266, Unsight shows that my reasoning for Carl's pro-town status could be flawed. I admit I completely ignored this logic from Unsight, and it burned me later when I pushed for McGriddle's lynching and avoiding lynching Carl.

Congrats to Carl for messing with my head. Your move convinced me to not vote for you when the town had narrowed the day's lynch down to two people. Great job.

Anyway, Unsight's words of wisdom constitutes further proof in my mind that Unsight is pro-town.




But this doesn't mean that the rest of my initial analysis is flat out wrong as well. Who did I initially vote for? Legions. It was strong evidence in my mind. Unsight mostly agreed with my analysis (minus my thoughts on Carl Sagan, and also disagreed with me on Fiyr and FluffyGiggles). But Unsight did agree with me on my thoughts behind Legions. So did Netopalis. I wasn't the only one thinking along those lines on day 1.





Those are my thoughts for the first 11 pages. I hope to further comb through the thread tomorrow and post thoughts regarding more recent lines of discussion.


I will say this regarding more recent topics: I think Ythan's bickering with McGriddle is a scummy attempt to throw everyone off. Unsight says this on 633:

Your stupid bickering almost let Carl slip out of our grasp on Day 1 and now you're doing it again. I'd like you both to step back and look at everyone else to see who looks suspicious outside of one another.

Juliano posts in 637 that:

I like FluffyGiggle's response to me in post 585." He then quoted FluffyGiggles who posts "As a new joiner, Ythan did try to swing the lynch away from Carl Sagan. He was pushing pretty strong for a McGriddle lynch.

Something to think about.... Perhaps further suspicion against Ythan. Trying to pull the vote away from someone we now know to be scum. I need to reread the context to be more sure.

[mariomaster777]

Here is a summary of my reads and strengths of those reads. The strengths of the reads are pure gut reaction, but the associations of those reads (town or scum) are based on the logic I just posted and the logic of my previous posts.


Juliano: Moderate pro-town read
FluffyGiggles: Slight pro-town read
Ythan: Moderate scum read by way of Legion's previous behavior as well as a little bit of new info.
McGriddle: Moderate to strong pro-town read
Fiyr: Slight to moderate pro-town read
Unsight: Strong pro-town read


So because I have only 1 person who I think is scum at this point, I'll make my vote.

Vote: Ythan.

[mariomaster777]

I'm sorry. I had a typo in my very long post above. About half way through I give context behind post 197. At the end I say: "

Carl

then went on to agree with

Carl Sagan.

" I meant to say: "

Carl

then went on to agree with

Juliano

. " Sorry about that.

[mariomaster777]

Deadline's not getting any further away folks. The level of activity here is not helping anything.

Deadline is 4/6. We have plenty of time to discuss things. Why the rush?

[mariomaster777]

I think this is tautology because it's tautology.

Stuff like this is why people get offended with you. Completely unnecessary. And BTW you scolded me for posting "fluff." Forgive me if I re-elaborate what I say at times. I tend to be on the verbose side of things.

From a Mafia perspective, now is the PERFECT time to point additional suspicion at Fiyr.

It seems to me that you're dismissing the case because it might be wrong. Foregone conclusion fail.

I'm confused by this. Not only did you take that quote out of context, but where am I "dismissing" the case? I'm using it as additional evidence that Fiyr is pro-town. Is it indirect evidence? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean it has zero merit.

Congrats to Carl for messing with my head.

I'll save my praise for when the game is over next time..... I'm the kind of person who applauds good play.

What you need to do is read up on the basis of my case on Grid and see if it makes sense. When you see that it does you'll come to realize that I was attacking a scummy player.

You're absolutely right. I haven't reread the recent part of the thread yet. I appreciate your patience. Sad to say I'm gone all day tomorrow because of an office visit with Deloitte in Cincinnatti. My professional career is much more important than this game. Like I said before, if I have to replace out I will. I'll let you know by Friday so I don't waste any more valuable time.

[mariomaster777]

@mario - Your post feels a lot like you took my preferred lynch and pulled out as much as you could to build a case on him and away from you. That's as much a pro-town as a scum play IMO so null tell, but here's the one thing about your last two posts that seems off:

My scum reads were Neto, McGriddle, and Legions. Most strongly on Legions.

McGriddle: Moderate to strong pro-town read

This seems pretty scumvenient and I don't feel you explained how you went from the former to the latter very well. What things are contributing to this new pro-town read on McGriddle that you didn't have earlier on?

unvote mariomaster777

It partly has to do with the fact that I was completely wrong about Carl Sagan, and the fact that we were down to those two players in Day 1. It also has to do with this whole conversation between McGriddle and Ythan, as well as McGriddle's act of posting this plan. While I disagree with the plan, the fact that he has pushed so hard for it shows dedication to the game. I believe it's a genuine gesture to try and help the town.

Again, permit me to further explain my thoughts as I read more recent posts in the upcoming days. Friday isn't 4/6, and I'm not disappearing this weekend.

[mariomaster777]

I'm gonna throw this out there. Given that a large percentage of people are leaning towards Ythan being scummy, why not just put the hammer down now? We save the GM from having to search for yet another replacement. Plus, what could the replacement do when stepping into this role. He/she will have to read through 27+ pages just to even catch up. Frankly, I think we won't gain much info by waiting for a replacement who has absolutely zero history with this game and would be unable to contribute very much.

What could the replacement say that could drastically change our minds besides flat out claiming a power role?

[mariomaster777]

That was quick. Guess we better wait for our replacement. Thanks Zachrulez for finding someone so quickly.

[mariomaster777]

Gonna finish going through the thread tomorrow. Hopefully my procrastination doesn't catch up with me.

[mariomaster777]

You guys are absolutely right. Frankly I was getting to the point where anyone who DIDN'T suspect me was likely scum. If today's lynch went south, I was 100% sure I was a goner on day 3, and I would have blown it completely for the town. I played this game really poorly for a number of reasons.

1. My post frequency was way too low. Sure I make the gigantic summary posts, but that's not enough involvement.

2. I promise things and I don't deliver. Certainly I have my reasons, but I consistently said I was going to do something and then didn't do it for quite some time.

3. I have a tendency to beat around the bush. It's difficult for me to say things in a direct way because I feel I must explain every piece in detail. This isn't bad necessarily, but I get "off track" with my explanations at times.


Frankly, I had good intentions in the beginning, and then life hit me like a brick wall. Next time I'll replace out earlier so I don't act scummy. Considering that April is really bad for me, I'm not playing in another game for quite some time. But I will be back on the site this summer.

I look forward to playing with everyone again on a future date. It was fun learning from all of you.

[mariomaster777]

I'm not giving up Neto, I'm just saying in my current state I would do the exact same thing if I signed up for another game right now. I wouldn't be able to commit the proper amount of time and end up lurking too much. April really is going to be hell for me as I finish up my requirements to graduate in May. After May, considering I'm still seeking employment, I should have more time on my hands.

I'll be around, just not right now.