Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
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DeathRowKitty sheFrogshe
- Frog
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Fibonacci Vote Count
[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (Lowell)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[0] Not Voting - ()
Oh, and I'm still getting to that post; I got distracted.-
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KittyMo Too Sparkly
- Too Sparkly
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- Posts: 5142
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- Location: Oregon
Fibonacci Vote Count
[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (Lowell)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[0]Not Voting- ()
Now carry on, carry on.Alt of Ariel | MafiaScum wiki volunteer contributor & sysop | Identity (Mish Mash) is back | Speakeasy Secret Santa
"plz don't swear" -- N
"Do people just not appreciate the good old wall of text anymore?" -- Cheery Dog-
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DeathRowKitty sheFrogshe
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Oh, right, I'm supposed to be making a post. Yay for getting distracted!
I agree that Monkey is probably scum. I also think that on the off-chance he really is JOAT, we should give him a night to test it out. He should "use" one of his investigative actions tonight, probably tracker (if he claims to have protected someone, we lynch him on the spot) and we can decide on him tomorrow if he's still alive. It's not like we don't have other good lynches.
The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.
+5 scum pointsMM wrote:Wow, if I'm telling the truth you dont believe me and lynch a power role and if I'm scum you punish me for having a good fakeclaim. This is good reasoning.
@Neto
Love the advertising.-
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Sakako Goon
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Actually it assumes 50-50 odds that we'd be lynching Monkey. I guess that's related, but if you'd care to give me a number, I can recalculate.DeathRowKitty wrote:The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.-
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MonkeyMan576 Jack of All Trades
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DeathRowKitty sheFrogshe
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Oh, I see. I just skimmed it the first time. Now I've read it.
I object to you giving him a 75% chance of being town in your calculations because the chances of that are much lower. I'd put it at around 20-25%. Then again, assigning a number to it is pretty meaningless right now.
Should be 9/11 and 2/11 because the player removed from the calculation was scum.Sak wrote:Someone else is scum 25% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (best case) = 1/11 ~ 9.1%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (best case) = 3/88 ~ 3.4%
If you feel like doing more random math, a more relevant (but honestly, still useless) number to come up with would be the expected gain or loss from lynching or not lynching in terms of number of town/scum that get lynched on average in each case. It's basically a waste of time though unless you just enjoy doing the math.-
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Lowell Jack of All Trades
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DRK's love of math warms me, we are kindred spirits.
It still saddens me that we're stuck not lynching monkey. The way he claimed after bitching about claiming is scummy. The way he just rolled with it when someone else mentioned 4 powers is scummy (IF you had four powers and were town, wouldn't you be, um, suspicious of someone who knew how many powers you had?). The way he's trying to defend himself by pretending mafia is a math problem is scummy.
fos monkey-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
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kyle99 Mafia Scum
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Sakako Goon
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- Location: Canberra, Australia
@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.
Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.-
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kyle99 Mafia Scum
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Right, because ifSakako wrote:@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.
Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.otherpeople say it's not scummy than I should think the same thing. Why scumhunt yourself if you can let other people do it? [/sarcasm]-
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Sakako Goon
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- Location: Canberra, Australia
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kyle99 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Spokane, WA
You want me to try to decipher why other people don't think it's scummy? How can I explain other people's thinking?Sakako wrote:I only make that point because, let's face it, you haven't exactly been Sherlock Holmes here. If it's, as you say, "waytoo scummy to ignore", then why hasn't someone else picked up on that?
Oh, and:
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Sakako Goon
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MonkeyMan576 Jack of All Trades
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How do you know a townie is going to die tonight? Why couldn't we kill scum?Sakako wrote:@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.
Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.-
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Lowell Jack of All Trades
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Fine. But certainly many people (myself included) wouldn't have known somthing like that. So casually mentioning four powers is scummy. It does look like you're helping to nudge a scummate towards a safer claim. And if you're town that's the kind of information you'd leave to yourself until AFTER monkey's claim, then hit him with it if he named 3, or 5 powers.xRECKONERx wrote:Attention: I've never seen a JOAT with anything but 4 powers
unvote, vote monkey. Sorry fibonacci. Ireallydon't like how this claim went down. At all. My next suspect is reckoner if monkey flips scum.-
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MonkeyMan576 Jack of All Trades
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MonkeyMan576 Jack of All Trades
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When I flip town, Sakuko, Lowell and Neto are my top 3 suspects, Not only are Neto and Lowell on the tail end of an extremly scum driven lynch, but the logic is lousy.
Oh, and I'm actually avanilla townie. I lied because vanilla townie claims usually get lynched for being not useful anyways. I wasn't taking leads from Reck at all, and my flip will prove it. I wouldn't blame the town for lynching me because of the time left, but if you think you can get Sakuko or Lowell, especially, I would try.
At the least, the end of this wagon has provided a great deal of information for the town, this is one of the scummiest wagons I've seen in a long time.-
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Espeonage anySurvivorany
- Survivor
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MonkeyMan576 Jack of All Trades
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
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Nikanor Jack of All Trades
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Nikanor Jack of All Trades
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
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Unless you know they see "Hey we should make Monkey use track tonight!" and he's like "Oh fuck I can't bullshit that" so he's like "o guyz i was jk ab the claim lulz"Nikanor wrote:Lying isn't as scummy as you think it is. In fact, this makes me think Monkey is town (scum would have absolutely no reason to go back on a PR claim unless he was caught by a rolecop or something).green shirt thursdays
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