Mini #893 - Dollhouse Mafia (Game Over!)

[elvis_knits]

I do think scum would buss, but this was like a really hard, long, buss, if it was a buss. Possible. I will look back to what CTD said about KOC. I don't think he wavered in his vote though, which makes me doubt a buss. I think scum try not to buss if they don't have to. I will give it another look though.

[farside22]

I do think scum would buss, but this was like a really hard, long, buss, if it was a buss. Possible. I will look back to what CTD said about KOC. I don't think he wavered in his vote though, which makes me doubt a buss. I think scum try not to buss if they don't have to. I will give it another look though.

I need to find that game I was on Xtoxm and we were both scum. Some people say they think it's easier to buss their scum partner and not waiver on it as they know that player to be scum then a town to wavier and question themselves and others.
I'm not saying 100% CTD scum. But I believe based on some analysist, reactions, and overall play ort is more likely scum.

[elvis_knits]

Holy crap I feel like I'm drinking the kool-aide.

IF the scumteam is DN, VMD/KOC, Lim/ort, and messiah/CTD...

vote: lewarcher
imprint: VMD (I guess, since other people are doing it too >_<), limerick, pug, messiah)

Imprint: Messiah, VMD, Buttonmen

Imprint: Vala Mal Doran
Imprint: Limerickx

Imprint: Messiah
Vote: Death Note

Besed on largely unexplained "town reads"

Messiah: Out of everyone, I get the strongest town vibe from him. In my reread, whenever I found myself thinking of soemthing, 9 times out of 10 Messiah asked the question in his next post.

<snip>

VMD: Generally town, hasn't waivered too much

DN: imprinted everyone including whole scumteam (took some back, like on me and SC)
VMD: imprinted self, lim, messiah while voting DN
Limerick: imprinted self, vmd, messiah, while voting DN
Messiah: imprinted self and vmd, while voting DN (if messiah had imprinted limerick too, we would have had a perfect set here).

[CrashTextDummie]

This is gonna take longer than expected (I guess I should have known better). I've read up to page 10. Not a whole lot of information on all the players, but there's some juicy stuff:

Far and away the scummiest player so far is SerialClergyman. His immediate jump on Starbuck for supposed scum-ties with DN, followed by a grossly disproportionate push for her lynch still makes zero sense to me from a pro-town perspective, and plenty of reason from a scum-perspective. The worst thing about it is that SC previously didn't voice suspicion of DN, so the only sensible reason I see for him to cook up this SB/DN scumpair-theory is that he tried to tie a townie to his scumbuddy. This is consistent with the fact that he's pushing for SB over DN.

I generally thought that the people who reacted critically to this at the time looked rather pro-town. Lewarcher (now RECK) stands out in particular, his Post 195 is awesome (look at those imprints!).

-------------

Based on interactions with VMD, I pretty strongly doubt that Elvis is scum. VMD's reaction to Elvis' theory that SC is town with her doesn't read to me like a bus. They actually had quite a few interactions, and I feel that way about most of them.

------------

Gleaning any more information from VMD's posts is tough at this point. Here's her scum-list from the bottom of page 10:

Obvtown (town reads on every single post):
Limerick
VMD
Pug
Messiah

Probably town (town reads on most posts but some neutral or scum reads):
SC
Elvis

Starbuck
Buttonmen

Just town of neutral (town when posting, but post moar pls):
Plum

Neutral (lol anti-town metas):

DN

Probably scum (where the fuck are you?):
Jason

Obvscum (Do I really need to explain my case again?):
lewarcher

Some musings:
I expect at least one buddy in the top category (for imprinting purposes). This points towards Pug or Ortolan scum from my point of view.

I find it notable is that she doesn't take a stance on the SC/SB situation (they're both in "probably town"), which to me indicates SC-scum.

I find it slightly weird that Plum got a category of her own.
--------------------

I find it likely that at least some scum came to the DN party early. Votes on DN so far came in this order:

Elvis
Messiah (CTD)
Plum (Socrates)

Elvis vote came too early for a bus in my opinion. She voted him before it became obvious that he was a liability to scum. This makes Plum a likely candidate for an early bus in my view. There is one other peculiar character in this scenario though, and that is Pug: He was the second person to point the finger at DN (this was before the Messiah vote), but didn't follow it up with a vote and in general pretty much ignored DN for the next 6 pages. Smells like distancing.

Limerick didn't raise any major flags. He was the first person to imprint VMD, but VMD reacted weirdly and I found Lim's reasoning for the imprint, which he provided shortly after, to be reasonable enough.

Farside was a non-entity so far.

Top 3 scum-candidates as of page 10:
SC
Pug
Socrates

[farside22]

Just an FYI I replaced Jason in this game.

[SerialClergyman]

[quote]Based on interactions with VMD, I pretty strongly doubt that Elvis is scum. VMD's reaction to Elvis' theory that SC is town with her doesn't read to me like a bus. They actually had quite a few interactions, and I feel that way about most of them. /quote]

Why does this give town points to elvis but not to me?

farside - why are you and elvis allowed to go talking about ortolan's buddies but you got all snarky at me when I did? Honestly though, I think you can reason yourself out of a breain at the moment. It feels like we're really deep into this game but we've only had 4 flips, and that means we've only got a 1/4 chance of lynching scum and a 1/28 chance of correctly picking the team if we were doing it randomly - lets not get ahead of ourselves. I think Ortolan is a good lynch - even ctd tosses a few scum points his way, and I know farside and elvis both think it - lets knock him off.

I was going to go do some actual analysis, one sec.

[farside22]

Lets make this less simplistic to appease the mass's.

Hawaii (button) (6) - Hawaii (button), Kansas (far), Ohio (koc), Florida (limerick), Montana (pug), Iowa (reck)
Florida (limerick) (6) - Florida (limerick), Ohio (Koc), Kansas (far), Colorado (CTD), Montana (pug), Hawaii (button)

Not on any of the imprints: EK, SC and Soc.

Players on both wagons: farside, button, limerick, koc

Hawaii: my top suspect on that wagon: Koc and Reck
Florida: My top suspects on that wagon: CTD and KOC

Not on any of the imprints and suspect: EK and Soc.

Now if everyone believes these 2 people are town and deserve to be imprinted why did 3 players not go on any of these imprint wagons?
Both players in question expressed interested with EK/SC as scum so if both said they were willing to investigate them why did EK/Sc not push ot have them imprinted?
These are the thoughts that plague my mind.

[CrashTextDummie]

Just an FYI I replaced Jason in this game.

I'm aware of that. He had no posts in the first 10 pages. I just mentioned you for posterity.

Why does this give town points to elvis but not to me?

Because:
1. VMD attacked Elvis for it and largely ignored you.
2. VMD had a lot of interactions with Elvis over those 10 pages and barely any with you.

[Pug89]

He also acted horrendously scummy towards KoC's wagon yesterday and KoC calling him out on his illogical vote here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 01#2106301 looked like bad distancing. I agree with you that elvis is town, that's the only other read I feel confident of atm.

Are you referring to me not voting him right away, because I already said that was because I didn't want to rush to end the day. In fact Reck hammered KOC 12 minutes after I did vote for him.

As for KOC's "distancing" as you put it, I obviously don't know what he was thinking but at that point he was pretty much lynched, it could have been a a last ditch attempt to avoid his lynch although it was an extremely weak one.

Does anyone have an objection to farside's town read on me?

I most certainly do. You have done several things that set off my scumdar. Off the top of head you randomly proclaimed me to be scum D5 and didn't provide any explanation when I asked for one, and you switching from your insistence to NL and imprint yesterday to hammering KOC when it was obvious he was going to be lynched.

3)HOWEVER, the imprinting of buttonmen went through, while the imprint wagon on pug died.
-->This is strange. It looks like me and farside unvoted pug. I think I started to feel pug wasn't contributing or something. So this is perhaps why the wagon died. But makes me wondering if the pug wagon was scum fueled or not?

I believe the wagon died because people thought that Reck was pushing to imprint me.

As for it being scum fueled; you, farside, and SC were the first three on it, so you would have to tell me.


I'm really not impressed with ortolan's contributions so far. He seems to be following the crowd (asking if he should be voting for KOC when he first entered the game, and then voting me when most of the town's attention came my way) and at the same time doesn't appear to be putting much effort into the game. He doesn't read the game up till he entered it and besides going after what appears to be the easiest lynch doesn't comment on anything else besides some setup discussion that involves imprinting the scummiest player.

no way am I trudging through 74 pages. If something interests me and I want to read it I'll look at it.

I know 74 pages is a lot but you should have known about it before you agreed to replace into the game.

I find my style of play is far more effective; the one that involves voting scum.

You mean the style that involves ignoring large amounts of the game and throwing out the easiest vote with little explanation.

I never said I had read the game

I have also said who my top suspect is. Are you in fact...reading my posts?

You did say you were reading the game from the beginning, but apparently that is not the case.

There is one other peculiar character in this scenario though, and that is Pug: He was the second person to point the finger at DN (this was before the Messiah vote), but didn't follow it up with a vote and in general pretty much ignored DN for the next 6 pages. Smells like distancing.

I'm generally pretty conservative with my vote, especially on D1. As for the distancing, as you put it, I believe the period of time you are referring to was when I was finishing finals and moving out of my dorm for the semester so there were a few days when I didn't have a lot of time to check the thread.

[farside22]

Based on interactions with VMD, I pretty strongly doubt that Elvis is scum. VMD's reaction to Elvis' theory that SC is town with her doesn't read to me like a bus. They actually had quite a few interactions, and I feel that way about most of them. /quote]

Why does this give town points to elvis but not to me?

farside - why are you and elvis allowed to go talking about ortolan's buddies but you got all snarky at me when I did? Honestly though, I think you can reason yourself out of a breain at the moment. It feels like we're really deep into this game but we've only had 4 flips, and that means we've only got a 1/4 chance of lynching scum and a 1/28 chance of correctly picking the team if we were doing it randomly - lets not get ahead of ourselves. I think Ortolan is a good lynch - even ctd tosses a few scum points his way, and I know farside and elvis both think it - lets knock him off.

I was going to go do some actual analysis, one sec.

Okay I think you need to understand my thought process so your not offended by my snarkiness.
I had a thought that you were scum with lim for the following reasons and scum motivations I could think you might do:
1) the whole pushing SB over DN day 1
2) saying lets lynch you and when you flip scum then people should lynch EK. I can see this with scum motivation to get someone you know to be town and will drive the town to be lynched
3) your imprint of me set off an internal alarm and I thought it came from the fact that buttonman suggested vigging you that you thought if you buttered up a town person they might either stop or protect you if buttonman shot. Of course that takes a lot of WIFOM on scum part but lim scum is more likely to get a kill then anything else because why would the mod deny giving scum a kill the first time they got imprinted.
This was later after my dream:
4) was later when you voted for CTD but didn't vote for KOC and wondered why people were voting for buttonman but you were voting him yourself.

1 and 2 are very valid options. Even a 1 to 1 ratio with those who followed you would look more scummy.
3 is per WIFOM and playing the odds.
4 seems very unlike your nature.

[CrashTextDummie]

Pug, why do you consider yourself the easiest lynch? From where I'm sitting, you're not top of the list for most people.

[SerialClergyman]

farside - I wasn't having a go, perhaps snarkiness is the wrong word. I'm all good

I get your suspicions, I just don't know what to say to them. If I bring up protown stuff you'll mark it down as WIFOM, and it is. My singlehanded push to get you imprinted, for example, is listed as a WIFOM-y scumtell. I can only shrug. I get where you're coming from, I know you've seen me first hand as scum and that you're aware of some of the tricks up my sleeve. What else can I say?

I guess my point with the snarkiness comment was even with all that, and even with the paranoid playstyle, just try to think about what I'm saying and not go into *SC is scum* mode. I've been the least likely person to set up lynches, both you and elvis are doing much more in that direction that I am, so don't dismiss what I write as having that goal. You get me?

Now - if you want to resolve your suspicion of me, tell me the best way I can show you something that might make you think twice about your read.

If you don't care about it because I'm not your top lynch target, lets deal with it later and look at who we should lynch.

[Pug89]

Pug, why do you consider yourself the easiest lynch? From where I'm sitting, you're not top of the list for most people.

I was at the beginning of the day, at least for some people. Besides ortolan I know elvis mentioned she would prefer my lynch today and Reck seems sure I am scum.

[farside22]

If you don't care about it because I'm not your top lynch target, lets deal with it later and look at who we should lynch.

Your not at the top. I think ort/ctd
ort/soc
are more likely but you would definately be up there if ort flips scum as a top 3 suspect. I don't know if I can every 100% trust your views. the push on SB over DN especially makes it difficult for me considering the game I'm thinking of.
I say we lynch ort. See where the chips lie, but I think EK needs to be imprinted for today as well.

[SerialClergyman]

Ortolan was on:

VMD

and CTDs imprint wagon D1 but not on

buttonman.

He came in late to the Deathnote wagon, which we know wasn't a huge team bus because both known scum weren't on it.

He didn't vote the entireity of D2, ignoring the SC and SB wagons.

He imprinted button and himself, and argued agaisnt farside for a long time before capitulation.

He spent the next day voting farside .

He finally avoided the wagon on KoC.

In fact - I don't think he's ever been on a wagon. He's been avoid-the-wagon man. This is suspect enough, except he's also been imprint-ahoy man. He happens to have his imprints often synced up with the scum. His imprint votes in my analysis (so imprints at the times they were close to successful) have mirrored VMD exactly with one exception - the imprint of farside, but even then he argued against that for days before giving in.

That's where most of my suspicion is. I can't see him as contributing to scumhunting, it looks like he's positioning himself away from the wagons and his imprinting record is strongly pro-scum.

[elvis_knits]

Pug, why do you consider yourself the easiest lynch? From where I'm sitting, you're not top of the list for most people.

I was at the beginning of the day, at least for some people. Besides ortolan I know elvis mentioned she would prefer my lynch today and Reck seems sure I am scum.

You got to roll with the times! I'm really thinking you're town at the moment based on the fact known scum VMD/KOC could have hammered your imprint D3 and didn't.

[farside22]

I feel like this phrase I stated about reck fits pug as well.

Yeah it's hard to ignore logic over gut and seeing bad playing that looks scummy.

reck you have my permission to use that as your sig. you may need it in future game.

[CrashTextDummie]

You got to roll with the times! I'm really thinking you're town at the moment based on the fact known scum VMD/KOC could have hammered your imprint D3 and didn't.

This perfectly illustrates why I don't like pure vote-count analysis. Pug reached 5 imprint votes in Post 774 (his own vote) and dropped back down to 4 only 5 posts and 3 hours later when you yourself unvoted. Votecount inbetween, but no post by VMD. Of course, this doesn't mean that you're necessarily wrong (I'm obviously not that far in my reread yet, and would have to check why VMD wasn't voting him regardless in a scenario where they're scum together and he had a real shot of getting the imprint), but I just wanted to point out the danger in jumping to conclusions from looking at vote counts.

[ortolan]

I thought Pug would be an obvious lynch myself but then I saw he wasn't close to the top of most people's lists. I thought his stuff with KoC stood out as real scummy and I'm not that keen on letting him off with "too scummy to be scum". I am surprised he's getting so little attention.

There seems to be a lot of consensus that my slot is scummy for some reason so I'm not going to go and counter-accuse everyone saying it, it is probably a town-dominated wagon with :perhaps: one scum on it, I doubt both scum would be doing the same thing as each other at this point in the game.

will look at: farside, CTD, *maybe* Serial. If they don't yield results I'll be looking at Socrates.

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #52=-

Florida (2) - Alaska, Kansas
No Lynch (1) - Iowa
Montana (1) - Florida

Not Voting (4) - Colorado, Georgia, Montana, Virginia

5 to lynch.

-=Imprint Count #52=-

Virginia (3) - Iowa, Kansas, Alaska
Kansas (2) - Kansas, Alaska
Iowa (2) - Iowa, Kansas
Georgia (0)
Alaska (0)
Colorado (0)
Florida (0)
Montana (0)

5 to imprint.

ALASKA = SerialClergyman
COLORADO = CrashTextDummie
FLORIDA = ortolan
GEORGIA = Socrates
IOWA = xRECKONERx
KANSAS = farside22
MONTANA = Pug89
VIRGINIA = elvis_knits

[elvis_knits]

You got to roll with the times! I'm really thinking you're town at the moment based on the fact known scum VMD/KOC could have hammered your imprint D3 and didn't.

This perfectly illustrates why I don't like pure vote-count analysis. Pug reached 5 imprint votes in Post 774 (his own vote) and dropped back down to 4 only 5 posts and 3 hours later when you yourself unvoted. Votecount inbetween, but no post by VMD. Of course, this doesn't mean that you're necessarily wrong (I'm obviously not that far in my reread yet, and would have to check why VMD wasn't voting him regardless in a scenario where they're scum together and he had a real shot of getting the imprint), but I just wanted to point out the danger in jumping to conclusions from looking at vote counts.

This is a good point, and something I did think about after the fact and was trying to remember to look at how long pug was I-1, and if VMD had an opportunity to hammer or not. Regardless, it doesn't explain why VMD did not imprint pug before, if they're buddies and pug was generally thought of as pro-town. But, your point does muddy the waters, and make things less black-and-white.

[farside22]

Soc has moved up my scum list with Ort.

I note that EK just needs 2 people to imprint her.
Unless someone can point to why they think EK is scum this imprint should happen before the end of day.

meh pug imprint could have been pushed by VMD but I think VMD was playing careful so I could say don't excuse pug right out the boat.
Right now in my head I have 3 people (including myself) to be town so I don't see the scum winning at this point.
@Reck: Why do you not see me as town?

[xRECKONERx]

Because you're talking a lot, changing your mind a lot, and seem to be one of the two main leaders of thought in the town (along with elvis). I'm not saying you're scum, but I can't list you as obv-town because that kind of play worries me.

[ortolan]

did anyone just get a mega-distancing vibe from the last two posts?

[farside22]

Because you're talking a lot, changing your mind a lot, and seem to be one of the two main leaders of thought in the town (along with elvis). I'm not saying you're scum, but I can't list you as obv-town because that kind of play worries me.

I see too many things and until people start flipping scum I go on instinct and bad play from others.
Now that DN and KOC flipped scum I feel more certain about my town reads on you and EK and more certain on ort scum. The partner depending if ort does indeed flip scum is more harder to come by.