Mini 896 - Jekyll Mafia - Game Over

[Green Crayons]

Also,

mod

:

vote: peanut

.

Apologies. Fixed votecounts.

[Green Crayons]

And seeing the deadline is in five days from now, I will make a point of writing my thoughts tomorrow.

[Green Crayons]

Did I say 128? Wrong side of the 5 on the number pad. It was 178 pages printed out.

At any rate, I'm done reading/highlighting/tabbing the thread. I won't be home from work until 9.30 tonight and then there will be Lost to watch. Actually organizing, rereading and electronically transcribing my notes/points will probably take a few hours, so expect a really late post.

unvote

. I'll see which of my main suspicions I'll hound after I post my thoughts in their entirety.

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, Vote: Green Crayons

Call it a hunch. But if his analysis later tonight isn't a damn good one, I know who I want to lynch.

[Pulindar]

Also, I forgot to mention, that I don't like that Nacho used the same exact logic for peanut being a serial killer over being a PGO that Wolf used for Raider being mafia over being a night vig.

Explain? I don't see the similarities...

Basically, Peanut Claimed PGO, your initial reason for him not being PGO (regardless of timing) was because you don't feel that PGO are common. Here let me find the quote.

I don't see why people are convinced that there's a SK lurking about rather than someone has a "paranoid townie" trait or that maybe there was a backup vig?

Personally, it's because SKs are simply more common. Never played with a Paranoid Gun Owner, and never played with a backup vig. I definitely have played with quite a few SKs, though.

Wolf's initial argument against Raider

Also wait... a night vig? Isn't that a serial killer or a mafia member? I have only seen day vigs personally.

That's where I drew the similarities. It's not something to lynch someone on, but it is definitely something to note. If two people were talking about tactics they may choose to use the same ones that worked before. I also like how you both thought about SK. seems a bit coincidental.


Also, you talked about the show with Peanut's role. as far as possibilities go, could he have been a PGO turned SK after activated? Is that a possible option? That would be an interesting twist.

[Pulindar]

OK, I did my WNH connections read. My favorite scumtells based on connections to known scum are people the scum found suspicious but didn't deserve it, people the scum didn't find suspicious but did deserve it, and the same tells from living players to the dead scum.

Ecto and wnh played a pretty tight game in this regard. Their only votes were as follows:
Ecto: Nacho (RV), Gerhard (minor tell), raider (dead, don't care), Suave (dead)
WNH: 5cvm (same basic role info case as everyone, pile-on?), Suave, raider

And other than the votes, their other suspicions were on dead guys, unless I'm missing something.

People who voted Ecto/wnh: Nacho (RV), Gerhard (OMGUS on above minor tell vote), and again unless I'm missing something, that's it.

One thing that jumps out at me is Ecto & Nacho RVing each other. But other than that, based on "faked" suspicions or non-suspicions, I'd say Gerhard comes out looking worst, but it's really minor.

Given my other suspicions of Gerhard, I think he's the most likely to be maf buddies with wnh, even if has cop claimed without a counter.

Still, I'd like to get the peanut stuff sorted out first. Who wants to make the peanut-SK case? Right now, I do think he's more likely to be PGO, but I also think that he should absolutely be the lynch if he is SK.

I didn't think to look at that.

Interesting how those are the two people I've been saying were my top picks as well..... I'm not sure how I feel about that either.

Still I like the points but will need to reread through. BTW Nacho is still my top choice.

[Nachomamma8]

I also like how you both thought about SK.

When someone dies, and no one really suspected that person, my natural go-to reaction is SK.

In your point against me, you're failing to realize that I am against peanut's lynch; not only am I against it, but I'm also offerring good alternatives for people to lynch instead. Wolf used that point to get his suspect lynched. I'm using that reason more, combined with worst case scenario thinking to make sure that the town doesn't do something incredibly stupid.

[Slaxx]

After reading peanut's ISO I think he's PGO/town up until the time he starts defending his PGO claim. Irony at its finest. His play was very protownish and the NK records dont support an SK. My verdict:

Since peanutman had no votes on him when he claimed, and only a little pressure from Nacho, I think he is PGO or a townie with a bad sense of humor. I find it highly unlikely that SK, a role suited only for their own survival, would make such a risky falseclaim when they weren't in any direct danger. I know I previously said his claim was odd and probably late, which is true, but I don't see why an SK would make the claim until they had substantially more pressure (i.e. votes) on them.

I would like to know why peanut keeps changing his vote to whoever starts pressuring him though. Saying "your overeager scum because you want a threat dead" is assuming you're a threat. You're setting up a pretty false statement there, even if I'm leaning towards you telling the truth now, its still not something to make a case on.

As of now my vote for pulindar stays. His pointing out of similarities between reasons is good, but he still hasnt really justified his thoughts on Nacho, besides using someone else's logic, who even admit is not a very good case. This and his one connection is the only case he has currently. He's still saying he's going to read, even of his most recent post. Deadline's not far away, I think he's procrastinated long enough. We shouldn't let anyone sneak up to deadline without some sort of idea on their stance on scum (with an actual case).

That being said Nacho has switched around votes a lot. The first two were fairly well justified, but I dont get the logic between the GC votes. Just earlier when I asked of his suspicions he said he had been a big fan of GC's posting, then he votes him because of his "gut". Also I believe he said something about 2 mafiosos. I'm not good at balance, because I haven't played too many games, but assuming a certain number of maf left seems off to me, especially with the SK/PGO variable still incorporated into the gameplay mechanics.

As far as Gerhard goes, another empty promise on a read. When people promise a read 4 days or 5 days, idk what it is now, before deadline, and promise it soon and don't get it up, Its probably not good. He's been kind of standoffish this day too, and I would think the real cop, as I have said before, would try to be more protown in order to give merit to his claim. I see his reasoning of not caring too, at the same time: If he's not scum, and he claimed cop, chances are he'll be the nightkill and probably doesnt care about the game. Regardless, the action is still rather unjustifiable as he isnt playing to a town win condition.

MY stance right now is Pulindar or GK. Possibly Nacho.

I'll probably give it another good read thursday when I only have 2 classes, see if I'm overlooking anything.

[Nachomamma8]

Just earlier when I asked of his suspicions he said he had been a big fan of GC's posting, then he votes him because of his "gut".

Just earlier was before my vacation, and before that time, Green Crayon hadn't been trying to get peanut lynched, nor had he been breaking any promises, nor had he been "electronically transcribing his notes". Right now, I feel like he's making excuses to escape giving his position on something, and I really don't like it, considering how close to deadline we are.

Also I believe he said something about 2 mafiosos. I'm not good at balance, because I haven't played too many games, but assuming a certain number of maf left seems off to me, especially with the SK/PGO variable still incorporated into the gameplay mechanics.

Well, that's assuming a maximum of 3 mafia in the beginning. I'm assuming there aren't any more than that, because that means a mislynch, a PGO/SK kill, a vig, + a mafia NK would equal loss for town, which seems a tiny bit unbalanced to me.

[Green Crayons]

"

When you hit scum, you analyze the actions around the bandwagons

." -kikuchiyo
"

Ain't that the goddamn truth

." -Me

Alright, so let me start by summarizing my own play for this game:
Standoffish in D1 --> Self-Assured w/Raider in D2 --> Loss of Self-Confidence in D3; Lack of Attention with Real-Life Work.

In essence, pretty shitty. Especially throughout the entirety of D3. I haven't been alone in my poor play, however. Mr. Suave was an epic town fail D1. I think raider's play was always pretty poor as well - pretty much on par with my own. I honestly think we were the worst players all game - thus far - for various and sundry reasons; hopefully, my stint in this category will end here. Let me start this review with our list of living:

The Living:

Gerhard Krause

Green Crayons

Nachomamma8

peanutman

Unity

Pulindar

xvart

Slaxx

5cvm

MacavityLock

PHANTOM

Blue = town; Orange = Not Sure; Red = Scum

I will explain why I categorized each player as they currently stand, excluding myself. I am going to start with the blues, move on to the red and then finish up with the oranges. I have come to these conclusions, by and large, because of how

Ectomancer/wolframnhart

interacted with various players. Thanks for the Pro-Tip, Kiku.

Please note: I've tried to boil this down to the core parts. I can be verbose and that usually loses people due to bleeding eyes and walls of text. I've tried to make things readable.

Disclaimer: I haven't read anything on Page 22 or beyond. Don't expect anything in there to be included in the below.

Town

Gerhard Krause

·

Rereading the thread I found the majority of GK/Nacho's back and forth to be pretty harmless. That is to say, it looked like two townies talking to (and sometimes past) one another.

·

Known scum

Ectomancer

threw a couple of crappy attacks towards GK and let Nacho do the legwork. Looked to me like Ecto was seeing what would stick. Including:

1)

Post 16: Stylish yet inaccurate drawing of first blood.

2)

Post 20: BS mixed in with misrepresentation.

3)

Post 34: BS mixed in with misrepresentation.

·

His claim of being the town cop has gone uncontested. Wikipedia confirms that Peter Syme is a major player for Klein and Utterson. GK's super early breadcrumb (which was independently prompted, I might add) and cop fixation support his role claim.

Nachomamm8

·

Known scum

Ectomancer

passed some really opportunistic attacks at Nacho. Including:

1)

Post 68: Really weak reasoning to encourage Nacho votes just 10 posts after 5cvm's fake-out

2)

Post 70: Pushing for Nacho votes out of nowhere - strangely coinciding with 5cvm's fake-out but not acknowledging that fake-out - should be noted that Ecto had absolutely nothing to say about Nacho's suspiciousness until after 5cvm's fake-out

3)

Post 91: Uses complete BS against Nacho - also piggybacks off of his Kiku-buddying to give his criticism against Nacho undeserved weight.

4)

Please note: All of this done while Nacho was facing a L-1/-2. Opportunistic, much?

·

This is going to be far from specific, but: I just find Nacho's posts generally to be town. This perception has probably been influenced by Ecto's behavior and the fact that I generally agree with Nacho's post, especially more so as the game progresses.

Scum

PHANTOM/MacavityLock

Phantom

·

There's some interesting Phantom and known scum

Ectomancer/wolframnhart

interactions. Including:

1)

Parroting (Phantom's Post 42, where PHANTOM agrees with Ecto's Gerhard-hate; Phantom backs off from 5cvm due to V/LA in Post 254 just 8 hours after wolf unvoted for the exact same reasons)

2)

wolf's Post 171 states that PHANTOM has made "[t]oo few posts to give a good read," and that he has been lurking. wolf decides to pretend as if Kiku's observation about PHANTOM's lurking is something new in his Post 195. Please note that wolf never follows up on his PHANTOM read as he suggested he would.

·

Then there's just the general scum behavior. Including:

1)

Post 42 is a mishmash of bad reasoning to vote Nacho

2)

Post 66: continuing to support grasping-at-straws logic to vote for Nacho (especially the comment about Nacho's obviously sarcasm remark)

3)

Post 110: demands to know why someone would want to create a bandwagon without knowing who is town and who is scum (hint: only scum knows who is town and who is scum)

4)

Post 254: A lot of words that say nothing and PHANTOM fails to produce his followup prior to being replaced.

MacavityLock

·

There's some interesting MacavityLock and known scum

wolframnhart

interactions. Including:

1)

Watching wolf trying to pull off playing hardball with the replacement of "pretty hardcore lurker" is pretty hilarious. Please note wolf didn't come down on the actual lurker himself when he was in the game, only his replacement. The minor tiff between wolf and Macavity in Post 376 and Post 377 feels incredibly forced. I can picture the night discussion now: "Alright, so PHANTOM was sort of wishy-washy and kind of followed the lead, so how about we go at each other for the first bit to distance ourselves? /smartscum" Sheish.

·

Then there's just the general scum behavior. Including:

1)

Post 376: The reasons for voting Gerhard are pretty weak and baseless. His "top scum suspect" is there with pretty bad reasons.

2)

Post 417: Attempts to keep alive his horrible Gerhard voting logic. "The encourage others to not allow the information to get out" is an especially egregious rewriting of history.

3)

Post 459: Getting to be downright hilarious: Seeing that the claimed cop has investigated him, tries to paint "no result" as "innocent" to give himself a free pass.

4)

Post 519: Still pounding the "Gerhard is scum even though he's a claimed cop who has been very vocal about his suspicions of me" drum.

Middle Ground

Ordered from leaning town to leaning anti-town

xvart/Pulindar

·

Looking over my notes, I would occasionally write "pro-town," "town post," and "good posting" after xvart's posts. This makes me conformable with his play. However, his quality of posting was undercut by the lack of quantity. My reservations about xvart's play is that he seemed to be playing more defensively than anything; not wanting to go out on a limb, as it were. I have no read of Pulindar.

5cvm/Slaxx

·

I'm truly on the fence with Slaxx. His predecessor's actions were poorly misguided at best. What I would like to focus on in greater depth would be the action surrounding his almost lynch: He got to L-1 (with known scum wolf and obvscum PHANTOM on the wagon) but then the attention shifted to townie Suave. Were the scumbags just cutting loose dead weight? I believe Ecto ignored a good portion of 5cvm's gambit - was he hoping his scum partner's antics would just go away on their own? What about the total deflation of 5cvm suspicion after Suave's lynch? I don't know at the moment. Just some questions that jumped out at me when rereading. I have no reading of Slaxx.

Unity/peanutman

Unity

·

Unity played the part of a serial killer role well. Including:

1)

Post 5, Post 48: No content posts.

2)

Post 67: Playing "dumb" about 5cvm's fake-out...

3)

Post 77: ...But being perfectly happy to follow 5cvm's fake-out blindly. Please note Unity's wording where he suggests "going somewhere" is the best route to take - irrespective of if it's the "right direction" or not. SK's are pretty happy with anyone other than themselves being bumped off. If this vote counted, he put Nacho at 1-L just for the town to "go somewhere."

4)

Post 128: Wants to lynch 5cvm because 5cvm had no sound basis for thinking that Nacho was scum. Hypocritical, considering Unity had no sound basis for thinking that 5cvm had a sound basis for thinking that Nacho was scum. This vote puts 5cvm at L-2.

5)

Post 178: Misrepresents the very 5cvm post he quotes regarding 5cvm's claim.

peanutman

·

peanut did some pretty shady stuff as well. Including:

1)

Post 297: This post, by and large, is a bunch of critical - but neutral - observations about how people are playing. Essentially, it comes across as a great pep talk about how to play better for most of the players. Interesting to note that, in this post, the only two players he would like to see lynched (Suave, 5cvm) he confesses that he doesn't believe them to be scum. As a side note, I find it highly ironic that a lot of peanut's own criticism's of Slaxx's summary post 317 (seen in peanut's Post 320) can be applied to his own summary post here in 297.

2)

Post 303: peanut claims that he meant to tack his raider vote (seen in this post) in his 297 (noted in point 1). In reading his raider complaints, a vote doesn't really seem to naturally follow the raider commentary of 297. This vote looks like peanut realized he only espoused the lynches of two players he said were probably not scum and realized he needed to fix that. Looks like a sloppy fix up job.

3)

Post 443: Preemptively calling someone out for hammering a townie when that very same lynched player is someone you're 1) already voting for and 2) is the highest on your lynch means that your vote has not been made in good faith. That is, you don't think you're doing the best possible thing for the town in voting for a player you believe to be town. Scummy.

4)

Post 448: The follow up to point 3 above is icing on the cake. "I knew the guy I was voting to be lynched and who had a strong case against him was town and I used that knowledge to base my criticism of someone who placed the final vote on that guy because the alignment was revealed. You know, because he was town - duh! Voting for him was suspicious!"

So...

vote: MacavityLock

. I strongly urge people to review the thread and see if they also catch the Ecto/wolf connection to PHANTOM/Macavity.

I'm really up in the air about peanutman. I think his play (and especially his predecessor's play) has been incredibly scummy. His role complicates things; reading up on the TV series Mrs. Utterson was Mr. Hyde's mother. There might be some weird recruitment where if Utterson kills Hyde's partner (through PGO mechanism; or, maybe she just targets people each night and only kills non-Hyde mafia) then she joins scum. Wikipedia makes it seem as if Mrs. Utterson finds and joins her son at the end of the series - which would pit her against the Institute. I really don't know and don't feel comfortable pursuing this line of action when someone more readily identifiable as scum is available for a lynch.

And on to one final matter: In rereading I've becoming curious about how these night actions are playing out. I'm pretty convinced Kiku RBed Gerhard both nights. She was openly vocal in her suspicions of Gerhard and her reactions throughout D2 seem to reflect having targeted Gerhard for at least N1. Therefore, if we have a doctor, whoever they targeted N1 may also have been targeted by scum (since there was only the vig kill in N1) - thus, a stronger inclination that that player targeted is not-scum.


And that's all I have for the time being.

[Budja]

Votecount

2 - GreenCrayons: (peanutman, Nachomamma8)
1 - Pulindar: (Slaxx)
1 - MacavityLock: (Green Crayons)

Not Voting: Green Crayons, Pulindar, Gerhard Krause, MacavityLock

With

7

alive it will take

4

to lynch.

Deadline: 10pm, 20th February AEST

Prodding Macavity and peanut.

[MacavityLock]

In your point against me, you're failing to realize that I am against peanut's lynch; not only am I against it, but I'm also offerring good alternatives for people to lynch instead. Wolf used that point to get his suspect lynched. I'm using that reason more, combined with worst case scenario thinking to make sure that the town doesn't do something incredibly stupid.

Nacho, if we lynch peanut and there are 2 maf remaining, we will likely be in LYLO. This is true no matter whether peanut is SK or PGO. It's not a good situation, but it's not a town-auto-lose. If we don't lynch peanut and he is SK, there is a reasonable chance that we end up in a town-auto-lose situation. This is why I would want peanut gone if he is SK. Guaranteed crappy but winnable situation vs the possibility of being without a chance for a win.

peanut, I don't think you are, but if you are SK, good job. It doesn't look like you'll be getting lynched today.

----

I can't answer for what Phantom was thinking in his cases. I do think that at least in some of your points against him, you're trumping stuff up. Post 110, for example, seems to be Phantom voting 5cvm for creating a bandwagon based on the famed "role info". Phantom uses the word "creating", but there's definitely a difference between

building

a bandwagon (normal) and

forcing

one (what 5cvm did). Seems a reasonable call out to me. And after 254, he abandoned the game, so of course he failed to produce a follow-up. Is flaking scummy?

The minor tiff between wolf and Macavity in Post 376 and Post 377 feels incredibly forced.

I called out a lot of people for the policy lynch stuff. WNH responded to it first. Not sure how that implicates me.

1)

Post 376: The reasons for voting Gerhard are pretty weak and baseless. His "top scum suspect" is there with pretty bad reasons.

Why are they bad reasons? If you think so, why didn't you point them out at the time?

2)

Post 417: Attempts to keep alive his horrible Gerhard voting logic. "The encourage others to not allow the information to get out" is an especially egregious rewriting of history.

What do you call the following?

Someone drop it like its hot.

Green Canyons, your info will be just as good tomorrow as it is now. The only reason to delay a hammer is if the info is relevant to the lynchee, and may be influenced by him. This is not the case, so I don't see how waiting will add to it. We need to move into D2 so that the people on MrSuave's wagon can move on to something new, and will be able to act on your information.

He's specifically asking people to end the day, when you had suggested that you wanted to put some analysis in. I read that as him being afraid of what your analysis might show.

3)

Post 459: Getting to be downright hilarious: Seeing that the claimed cop has investigated him, tries to paint "no result" as "innocent" to give himself a free pass.

Let's assume for the moment that Gerhard is cop. He got a No Result on kiku, who has flipped town. He got a No Result on me, and I know I'm town. I wanted to be sure he wasn't missing the obvious.

4)

Post 519: Still pounding the "Gerhard is scum even though he's a claimed cop who has been very vocal about his suspicions of me" drum.

"Has been vocal about his suspicions of me" is really disingenuous. The timeline is a bit muddled here because I'm a replacement, but I've been suspicious of Gerhard since I've entered the game, and as far as I remember he wasn't suspicious of Phantom. And other than his claimed investigation of me, where has he said that he's suspicious of me? Like even once? He's just called me and my case stupid and gotten defensive.

The fact that we haven't had a counter-claim is one of the reasons I've been hesitant to vote him today.

[Pulindar]

As of now my vote for pulindar stays. His pointing out of similarities between reasons is good, but he still hasnt really justified his thoughts on Nacho, besides using someone else's logic, who even admit is not a very good case. This and his one connection is the only case he has currently. He's still saying he's going to read, even of his most recent post. Deadline's not far away, I think he's procrastinated long enough. We shouldn't let anyone sneak up to deadline without some sort of idea on their stance on scum (with an actual case).

I'm starting to get fairly annoyed that you KEEP misrepresenting me. My first couple posts I promised to read through, and to reread. I did that. I've read this game a few times actually, and I don't likethe arguments that I've found. I've kept commenting on what has been slowly transpiring, but I DON'T have a case yet. I never said I would definitely have a case. YOU Slaxx keep saying that I said I have a case and will post shortly. You keep misrepresenting what I've said, and don't use quotes to back it up. In fact, it seems to me that you're doing the same thing with Nacho and Gerhard. While I do suspect them I really don't like your arguments. We'll get into that in a bit.

First let's look at other arguments. Green Crayons arguments below, they all seem weak to me. Gerhard's breadcrum could be seen to go either way, scum or cop. In fact, based on the wording I would more suspect scum if I were looking at it as a breadcrum. But I find that it really probably was just answering his favorite position. That his claim of being cop has gone on uncontested doesn't matter, We don't know the setup. There could be no cop, there could be 3. As for the claim of title, that's off basis too because he could have just as easily looked it up and seen who to use. It's something to note, but not a definite. Still, that his title of Peter Syme makes me feel slightly better, but still not certain.

Neither Colonal Hart nor Christopher were mentioned in the wiki. Next off while Miranda Callendar is mentioned she is:

Miranda Callendar, a detective employed by Claire learns about Hyde

Then

Reimer and Callendar confront Syme, claiming they know the truth about Jackman. Callendar claims that Klein and Utterson have access to cloning technology and that Jackman is Jekyll's clone. Syme denies this and orders them taken away. He reveals to Claire that the "cure" her husband is undergoing will not purge the Hyde persona, but Jackman. Klein and Utterson want to examine Hyde in order to synthesize the potion that turned the original Jekyll into Hyde.

Then we have


Sometime later Jackman, apparently free of Hyde, has once again separated from his family for their safety. With the help of Callendar he tracks down his mother. Confronting her he asks about his origins,

From those would you expect her to be Mafia? Now I know that chances are Peter would be counted as good since he is a lead employee, but it could be taken other ways. He is, after all, the one trying to create more Hydes.

BTW according to this wiki, Mrs. Utterson at the end transforms into her own Hyde role. Which was part of the reason I suggested a PGO that would transform into an SK once targeted. She changes when Callendar and Hyde confront her, not before. If Wolf as Callendar confronted the Mother ...


Anyway, I went off on a tangent there. I find that not all of the roles are in the wiki, and that not all the roles mean what I would expect them to mean via the game, so I'm not sure I'd trust Gerhard even if I was sure that his name claim was true. And since we don't know whether there is a cop at all, I see no reason to use no counter claim as a good reason for him to be definitely town.

If you do want to use the wiki, think of it this way:
Now, If we take both of their claims, Peanut is Mrs. Utterson, and Gerhard is Syme then we still have other claims that can be made.
There could be a Benjamin, an american ally of Syme's. This seems like a pretty high chance for a role, though Idon't know what role he would have.
There could be Reimer, Jackman and Hyde's psychologist.
There could be Claire, Hyde's wife who seems (from what I've read) to be leaving him. Chances of claire seem pretty low though as she wasn't involved in the company
There could even be a Jackman which may keep Hyde from NKing sometimes. (just a thought) though this would be doubtful. maybe a Jackman filling a doctor role? protecting who he could from Hyde. Maybe able to send one PM to each other to show leaving notes. And put in a suicide situation, so if one dies the other dies.
So, 7 of us left, two claimed titles and a few possibilities. What roles might there be? I wish I had seen the show, this would change it significantly.


Anyway, back to slaxx stuff.

That being said Nacho has switched around votes a lot. The first two were fairly well justified, but I dont get the logic between the GC votes. Just earlier when I asked of his suspicions he said he had been a big fan of GC's posting, then he votes him because of his "gut". Also I believe he said something about 2 mafiosos. I'm not good at balance, because I haven't played too many games, but assuming a certain number of maf left seems off to me, especially with the SK/PGO variable still incorporated into the gameplay mechanics.

Two mafia members would make sense, it's either one or two left, depending, but it's best to think in things of the worst case senerio. I think there are two left as well. I don't, and didn't find it scummy that he would say that. It seemed like a guess at the time.

On the other hand, I do think that his vote on Green Crayons was a bit timely right after someone else voted for him, and as the group mind in general began to move away from peanut. I don't like it, it could be a scum trying to get on a wagon early. Still, I'd like to hear mroe of an explaination from him first.

As far as Gerhard goes, another empty promise on a read. When people promise a read 4 days or 5 days, idk what it is now, before deadline, and promise it soon and don't get it up, Its probably not good. He's been kind of standoffish this day too, and I would think the real cop, as I have said before, would try to be more protown in order to give merit to his claim. I see his reasoning of not caring too, at the same time: If he's not scum, and he claimed cop, chances are he'll be the nightkill and probably doesnt care about the game. Regardless, the action is still rather unjustifiable as he isnt playing to a town win condition.

I see where he said he would reread, I also see that he said he would respond in a few hours if he finished. Which by implication means he did not finish. Why would he put the time contraint of a few hours on it? Because he's probably busy and will be back later. Is it a lurker move? a bit yes, but it's not a bad one.

As for him being the NK, well that may be likely, but they could also not NK him and if there are two mafia left they may try to get the blame put on him because he wasn't NKed. Think outside the box. In fact, If I were scum there would be no way I would NK gerard. Not if I still had a roleblocker.

MY stance right now is Pulindar or GK. Possibly Nacho.

I'll probably give it another good read thursday when I only have 2 classes, see if I'm overlooking anything.

I agree with your other two suspects, but I don't like your case.

Case against me: Xvart lurked and I don't have a strong case against anyone else. Wait so you have a case against me for not trying to bandwagon on random people?

Case against Gerhard: Basically you're saying he's not playing Hard enough so we should just policy lynch him even though you think there is a good chance he is cop.

Case against Nacho: Your best yet, his vote on GC bothered me a bit as well, but the fact that he's taking a guess on the setup?? really you think that's a reason to lynch someone for?

Honestly your cases seem like you're just trying to get people to vote anyone but you. You seem to be making an effort with nothing real to back it up and filling in the real stuff by misrepresenting what people have said. I'm starting to be bothered by this Slaxx. I can understand going after my spot for lurking a bit, but going after Nacho for his guess on what the setup may be??? seems awefully far fetched to me, even if he was my lead suspect.

In your point against me, you're failing to realize that I am against peanut's lynch; not only am I against it, but I'm also offerring good alternatives for people to lynch instead. Wolf used that point to get his suspect lynched. I'm using that reason more, combined with worst case scenario thinking to make sure that the town doesn't do something incredibly stupid.

Good point. You're right, I didn't see it that way before. And you're right I can see how you would be doing that. Good point.





As for GC case against ML and the defense from ML. I tend to agree more with ML. I like MLs answers and I'm leaning towards town with ML.

On the other hand I hate MLs case against Peanut. Even if Peanut is SK (distinct possibility) his survival could help us. He could be the target of Mafia to keep him from NKing them. Or he could target them. Either way, I like keeping him in play at the moment.
Also, if he is PGO then it'll be extremely difficult/ risky, for Mafia to NK him. Could be a huge boon to town in that case.

[MacavityLock]

On the other hand I hate MLs case against Peanut. Even if Peanut is SK (distinct possibility) his survival could help us. He could be the target of Mafia to keep him from NKing them. Or he could target them. Either way, I like keeping him in play at the moment.
Also, if he is PGO then it'll be extremely difficult/ risky, for Mafia to NK him. Could be a huge boon to town in that case.

It's not a case on peanut, it's a case on getting rid of an entire scumgroup when we have the opportunity to do so. Trusting a SK to work for the benefit of the town is so dangerous.

Right now, I don't think peanut is SK, and I agree that keeping a PGO around is a Good Thing.

[Pulindar]

On the other hand I hate MLs case against Peanut. Even if Peanut is SK (distinct possibility) his survival could help us. He could be the target of Mafia to keep him from NKing them. Or he could target them. Either way, I like keeping him in play at the moment.
Also, if he is PGO then it'll be extremely difficult/ risky, for Mafia to NK him. Could be a huge boon to town in that case.

It's not a case on peanut, it's a case on getting rid of an entire scumgroup when we have the opportunity to do so. Trusting a SK to work for the benefit of the town is so dangerous.

Right now, I don't think peanut is SK, and I agree that keeping a PGO around is a Good Thing.

I think I miss worded myself. I shouldn't have said "case." I should have said I like keeping him around regardless of his alignment. an SK is only slightly more dangerous than a Vig, and a PGO is great for town. Anyway, I guess there's no argument there, I just wanted to clarify what I meant and why a bit.

[Green Crayons]

I do think that at least in some of your points against him, you're trumping stuff up. Post 110, for example, seems to be Phantom voting 5cvm for creating a bandwagon based on the famed "role info". Phantom uses the word "creating", but there's definitely a difference between

building

a bandwagon (normal) and

forcing

one (what 5cvm did). Seems a reasonable call out to me.

You're shifting the issue that I pointed out. Scummy. The problem with Post 110 is that PHANTOM takes issue not with the fact that 5cvm "created/built" or "forced" a bandwagon, but that PHANTOM specifically says that bandwagoning without prior knowledge of who is and isn't town is scummy.

And after 254, he abandoned the game, so of course he failed to produce a follow-up. Is flaking scummy?

After 254, he had Post 309, where he did not follow up. Once again trying to misdirect. Scummy.

I called out a lot of people for the policy lynch stuff. WNH responded to it first. Not sure how that implicates me.

wolframnhart "cracked down" on you in 373 which prompted your 376. His followup in 377 bookends a strained back-and-forth. It implicates you because when we catch scum we look at how they interacted with other players because it can tip us off as to other scumbags. The fact that you already voiced this tactic in Post 519 - not even a whole page ago - but are now failing to see how it is helpful in discerning wolf's scummates is telling. Scummy.

Why are they bad reasons?

If you think so, why didn't you point them out at the time?

Bolded portion is a great Ad Hom. Scummy. You're trying to excuse the bad logic by discrediting the person bringing the accusations. The fact that I didn't catch scummy logic in my first read of the situation has no bearing on the validity of that scummy logic.
Anyways, here are why your suspicions against GK in 376 were bad:

1)

You criticize GK for "answering" for Nacho, when he was merely stating his opinion on the matter when, IIRC, lots of people were stating their opinions on the matter. Furthermore, you state that GK is somehow protecting Nacho by tipping Nacho off as to what GK would consider scummy. GK's basis of suspicions aren't the standard for the town; therefore, what he finds to be suspicious is not what anyone else will or will not find suspicious. This whole Nacho protection line is a big reach.

2)

You criticize GK for his wording but it's clear that he's intent on lynching Suave due to his anti-town play - which may include Suave just being a really bad townie. You take a big leap with suggesting that GK "knew" that Suave was town.

3)

You take issue with the fact that GK was making notations as to what reasons behind the Suave wagon xvart was and was not supporting. ... Such a non-issue (it's good to know what reasons people ascribe to when they hop on a wagon) and you're blowing out a lot of hot air to look like you're actually making a good point. You're not.

4)

Finally, you focus on GK for asking someone to end the day before I put in my two cents, ignoring the fact that Kiku actually did the hammer (she was town, by the way) and other people such as Hacker (he was town, by the way) supported her doing the very thing you're criticizing GK for supporting. Your fixation on only a single player who merely supported a hammer at that point in time while ignoring other players who voiced the same sentiments and the actual player who performed the hammer is what is so telling.

He's specifically asking people to end the day, when you had suggested that you wanted to put some analysis in. I read that as him being afraid of what your analysis might show.

In addition to point 4 immediately above, my inability to piece together my thoughts in a reasonable amount of time was nobody's responsibility but my own.

Let's assume for the moment that Gerhard is cop. He got a No Result on kiku, who has flipped town. He got a No Result on me, and I know I'm town. I wanted to be sure he wasn't missing the obvious.

Okay, scumbag. The "obvious" isn't that GK was misinterpreting "No Result" as being blocked even though there was a dead roleblocker, the obvious is that "No Result" means that GK was unable to get a result. Which means there was no result, so alignment cannot be discerned. Keep on trying to stretch that paper thin logic to try to cover your butt, but it doesn't fly. Scummy.

"Has been vocal about his suspicions of me" is really disingenuous. The timeline is a bit muddled here because I'm a replacement, but I've been suspicious of Gerhard since I've entered the game, and as far as I remember he wasn't suspicious of Phantom. And other than his claimed investigation of me, where has he said that he's suspicious of me? Like even once? He's just called me and my case stupid and gotten defensive.

Post 461 GK notes that he attempted to investigate you because of the back and forth from D2. GK obviously views you as suspicious, you see this as a threat that needs to be slandered and, if possible, lynched. Because you're scum.



Pulindar: Per the role conversation, Callendar was scum because she supported Hyde. Hyde is scum, he's definitely in the game - it says so directly in VT win condition. Town is the Institute. Scum could be anyone outside of the Institute or working against the Institute. The reason why I agree with your speculation that peanut might have some weird mechanic is because Mrs. Utterson - Institute connections aside - is Hyde's mom and met up with him at the end of the show. That would put her definitely in Hyde's camp (or at least third party), the Institute be damned.

[Nachomamma8]

If we don't lynch peanut and he is SK, there is a reasonable chance that we end up in a town-auto-lose situation.

Post 490. The only way that the town ends up in an auto-lose situation is if Peanut shoots himself in the foot.

Unvote, MaccavityLock

I like Green Crayon's case on him so far. I don't like his responses. And since I don't really want to lynch an un cc'd cop just yet, that leaves my suspects between GC, Slaxx, Pulindar, and MaccavityLock. Slaxx and Pulindar are in some weird fight that I'll pick apart tomorrow, my only problem with GC was his sudden disappearance, so that leaves us with MaccavityLock. I'm vote hopping around a little bit, but we do only have 3 days left...

[MacavityLock]

I do think that at least in some of your points against him, you're trumping stuff up. Post 110, for example, seems to be Phantom voting 5cvm for creating a bandwagon based on the famed "role info". Phantom uses the word "creating", but there's definitely a difference between

building

a bandwagon (normal) and

forcing

one (what 5cvm did). Seems a reasonable call out to me.

You're shifting the issue that I pointed out. Scummy. The problem with Post 110 is that PHANTOM takes issue not with the fact that 5cvm "created/built" or "forced" a bandwagon, but that PHANTOM specifically says that bandwagoning without prior knowledge of who is and isn't town is scummy.

Let me complete the thought for you. I think that Phantom's point "bandwagoning without prior knowledge is scummy" is wrong in cases of building bandwagons. You and I agree there. However, in the case of forcing bandwagons, which 5cvm did, "bandwagoning without prior knowledge is scummy" makes sense to me. The distinction I made between building and forcing is what distinguishes whether or not Phantom's argument is wrong.

And after 254, he abandoned the game, so of course he failed to produce a follow-up. Is flaking scummy?

After 254, he had Post 309, where he did not follow up. Once again trying to misdirect. Scummy.

309 is clearly a precursor to flaking. My point stands.

I called out a lot of people for the policy lynch stuff. WNH responded to it first. Not sure how that implicates me.

wolframnhart "cracked down" on you in 373 which prompted your 376. His followup in 377 bookends a strained back-and-forth. It implicates you because when we catch scum we look at how they interacted with other players because it can tip us off as to other scumbags. The fact that you already voiced this tactic in Post 519 - not even a whole page ago - but are now failing to see how it is helpful in discerning wolf's scummates is telling. Scummy.

376 was my first post of the game, and I had been working on it over the night as I replaced in. The fact that wnh "called me out" has nothing to do with why I posted it. If you see a connection there, that's your read, and you have every right to make that case. But I

know

that there's no connection, because I'm town.

Why are they bad reasons?

If you think so, why didn't you point them out at the time?

Bolded portion is a great Ad Hom. Scummy. You're trying to excuse the bad logic by discrediting the person bringing the accusations. The fact that I didn't catch scummy logic in my first read of the situation has no bearing on the validity of that scummy logic.

It's a legitimate question. The fact that you didn't say anything before but are now may be scummy, and I want to figure out whether it is or not. It's in no way ad hominem.

1)

You criticize GK for "answering" for Nacho, when he was merely stating his opinion on the matter when, IIRC, lots of people were stating their opinions on the matter. Furthermore, you state that GK is somehow protecting Nacho by tipping Nacho off as to what GK would consider scummy. GK's basis of suspicions aren't the standard for the town; therefore, what he finds to be suspicious is not what anyone else will or will not find suspicious. This whole Nacho protection line is a big reach.

No doubt, this is the weakest of the things I pulled out about Gerhard in that first post. It's something, but it's minor.

2)

You criticize GK for his wording but it's clear that he's intent on lynching Suave due to his anti-town play - which may include Suave just being a really bad townie. You take a big leap with suggesting that GK "knew" that Suave was town.

His wording suggests that he knew. Why is that a big leap? I pointed out the specific phrases and everything. And I wanted to know why he used the wording he did.

3)

You take issue with the fact that GK was making notations as to what reasons behind the Suave wagon xvart was and was not supporting. ... Such a non-issue (it's good to know what reasons people ascribe to when they hop on a wagon) and you're blowing out a lot of hot air to look like you're actually making a good point. You're not.

My point here is that Gerhard is throwing dirt on xvart for absolutely nothing. It reads like he's setting himself up to join any xvart-bandwagon later with his "interesting" comment. The fact that Gerhard still hasn't backed up what was interesting about it just emphasizes the fact that the comment was bullshit.

4)

Finally, you focus on GK for asking someone to end the day before I put in my two cents, ignoring the fact that Kiku actually did the hammer (she was town, by the way) and other people such as Hacker (he was town, by the way) supported her doing the very thing you're criticizing GK for supporting. Your fixation on only a single player who merely supported a hammer at that point in time while ignoring other players who voiced the same sentiments and the actual player who performed the hammer is what is so telling.

Bullshit. HH's last post before the hammer was

Let's give Green Crayons until Thursday to post before anyone drops the hammer. I'd like to see what he has to say before we go to night. If anyone's strongly opposed to the Mr Suave lynch, you better speak up now.

And kiku waited until said Thursday (late in the day) before dropping the hammer. Gerhard was the singular player pushing, and did so after HH's post.

Also, you missed the thing that first jumped out at me: Gerhard's weird sequence of votes and suspicions in 235-246. Anything wrong/scummy about that?

Let's assume for the moment that Gerhard is cop. He got a No Result on kiku, who has flipped town. He got a No Result on me, and I know I'm town. I wanted to be sure he wasn't missing the obvious.

Okay, scumbag. The "obvious" isn't that GK was misinterpreting "No Result" as being blocked even though there was a dead roleblocker, the obvious is that "No Result" means that GK was unable to get a result. Which means there was no result, so alignment cannot be discerned. Keep on trying to stretch that paper thin logic to try to cover your butt, but it doesn't fly. Scummy.

You're calling me out for the use of the word "obvious"? There was a chance that Gerhard could have cleared me, and at most it would take asking the mod. I wanted to make sure we took that opportunity. If that cleared me, it's not only good for me, it's good for the town. Confirmed townies are good things. And the same question would have applied had Gerhard gotten a No Result on any other player still alive at that point. (I can't honestly say there was

no

self-interest in the question, but it still would've helped the whole town.)

"Has been vocal about his suspicions of me" is really disingenuous. The timeline is a bit muddled here because I'm a replacement, but I've been suspicious of Gerhard since I've entered the game, and as far as I remember he wasn't suspicious of Phantom. And other than his claimed investigation of me, where has he said that he's suspicious of me? Like even once? He's just called me and my case stupid and gotten defensive.

Post 461 GK notes that he attempted to investigate you because of the back and forth from D2. GK obviously views you as suspicious, you see this as a threat that needs to be slandered and, if possible, lynched. Because you're scum.

And yet he's never voted me. Or made a case on me. Or done anything towards me except fail to satisfactorily answer my questions. I don't feel particularly threatened by him at the moment, nor did I when I first found him suspicious, which is

immediately when I entered the game

. You're calling me out for OMGUS, when I was the one who

initiated

any conflict between Gerhard and me/my player slot. And if he is scum, yeah, I want him lynched.

You're making a case pre-supposing I'm scum. That's pretty easy to do, on just about anyone. Not only that, but your attacks on me are awful, in some cases demonstrably incorrect. I'm still really wary on Gerhard, but given no cop counterclaim, it's time to look into the rest of your posts to see if you're scum or just misguided town.

----

My last word on SKs (for now): A vig is town aligned and has incentive to do what the town needs, which includes not killing when the additional kill is bad for the town. A SK does what will help the SK win, nothing more. A SK is a ton more dangerous than a vig.

[Nachomamma8]

My last word on SKs (for now): A vig is town aligned and has incentive to do what the town needs, which includes not killing when the additional kill is bad for the town. A SK does what will help the SK win, nothing more. A SK is a ton more dangerous than a vig.

And now is one of these times. The only chance peanut has if he's the SK is if he cooperates with the town tonight. So, we have nothing to fear in leaving him alive today.

[MacavityLock]

My last word on SKs (for now): A vig is town aligned and has incentive to do what the town needs, which includes not killing when the additional kill is bad for the town. A SK does what will help the SK win, nothing more. A SK is a ton more dangerous than a vig.

And now is one of these times. The only chance peanut has if he's the SK is if he cooperates with the town tonight. So, we have nothing to fear in leaving him alive today.

Ever heard of NK immunity? It's a pretty common SK perk. In my opinion, there are just too many variables to consider leaving a SK alive. The whole debate is moot anyway, peanut isn't getting lynched today.

[Nachomamma8]

Ever heard of NK immunity? It's a pretty common SK perk. In my opinion, there are just too many variables to consider leaving a SK alive. The whole debate is moot anyway, peanut isn't getting lynched today.

If he has NK immunity, he kills a scum today, we have 2 town members left, 1 mafia member left, and him. Town gangs up on him with mafia, mafia wins. If there is only 1 mafia member left, then there will be 3 town left who will auto kill him, and then go to normal lylo. He remains screwed.

[MacavityLock]

Ever heard of NK immunity? It's a pretty common SK perk. In my opinion, there are just too many variables to consider leaving a SK alive. The whole debate is moot anyway, peanut isn't getting lynched today.

If he has NK immunity, he kills a scum today, we have 2 town members left, 1 mafia member left, and him. Town gangs up on him with mafia, mafia wins.

What incentive does town have to do this, giving maf the win? In this situation, the town might sacrifice one of their own to force the prisoner's dilemma, as you suggested in 490, giving a NK immune SK the win. TOO MANY VARIABLES.

Anyway, this debate is stupid and I'm done with it. It has no bearing on today's lynch.

Now, what don't you like about my answers to GC?

[Nachomamma8]

What incentive does town have to do this, giving maf the win?

None. But the maf wouldn't have screwed us over so throughly...

Now, what don't you like about my answers to GC?

In post 536, you asked a shitload of questions, but you didn't defend yourself as much as I would've liked you to.

And there is the whole SK opinion you have... you seem absolutely convinced that peanut being SK would screw over the town, but you are comfortable with leaving peanut alive.

[MacavityLock]

Now, what don't you like about my answers to GC?

In post 536, you asked a shitload of questions, but you didn't defend yourself as much as I would've liked you to.

What exactly in GC's 534 did I not defend that I should have? I can't answer for Phantom, so let's skip over all that. Nor can I answer for Ecto/wnh's actions. And I responded to every one of his points against me. What do you even mean by "defend" here?

And there is the whole SK opinion you have... you seem absolutely convinced that peanut being SK would screw over the town, but you are comfortable with leaving peanut alive.

Because I think that peanut's play is far more consistent with being PGO than with being SK.

Now, let's back up a minute here. No matter if I'm town or maf, I can't know whether peanut is SK or PGO. The

only

way is which my response to peanut could be anything but null/my true opinion is if

I'm

a SK, and thus know that peanut probably isn't one too. If I am SK, all of GC's connection points against me go out the window. So, either you believe GC's case against me, or you think that my play around peanut is scummy, but it can't be both.

[Nachomamma8]

Why are they bad reasons? If you think so, why didn't you point them out at the time?

Well, there's this. Instead of explaining why your reasons weren't baseless, you just ask why they're bad.

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:45 pm Post subject: 548

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nachomamma8 wrote:
MaccavityLock wrote:

Now, what don't you like about my answers to GC?


In post 536, you asked a shitload of questions, but you didn't defend yourself as much as I would've liked you to.
What exactly in GC's 534 did I not defend that I should have? I can't answer for Phantom, so let's skip over all that. Nor can I answer for Ecto/wnh's actions. And I responded to every one of his points against me. What do you even mean by "defend" here?

Nachomamma8 wrote:
And there is the whole SK opinion you have... you seem absolutely convinced that peanut being SK would screw over the town, but you are comfortable with leaving peanut alive.
Because I think that peanut's play is far more consistent with being PGO than with being SK.

Now, let's back up a minute here. No matter if I'm town or maf, I can't know whether peanut is SK or PGO. The only way is which my response to peanut could be anything but null/my true opinion is if I'm a SK, and thus know that peanut probably isn't one too. If I am SK, all of GC's connection points against me go out the window. So, either you believe GC's case against me, or you think that my play around peanut is scummy, but it can't be both.

You misunderstand me. The SK scenario is far more likely to screw over the town, than it is the mafia. You're worried about SK completely screwing over the town, and you point out how it could be an autoloss... But you ignore how peanut reacts after the initial accusation, and simply insist that Peanut's play just seems protown to you, and you're willing to let him live simply because of that.