Mini 896 - Jekyll Mafia - Game Over

[Green Crayons]

I'm keeping up but I want to digest a few things properly before making a few more comments. I have been working 60+ hours these past few weeks but I should actually have this weekend off (an oasis amidst the storm). Fingers crossed - but, if not, I'll still make a point of posting when my brain isn't in a constant fog.


I don't want to be replaced. Just bare with me.

[Gerhard Krause]

GK just jumped in my suspect list because of his latest post. He responded almost immediately after someone mentioned he wasn't around, and his last post is just... lazy.

GK, I asked you the question for 2 reasons: to see if your sanity was guaranteed, and to see if you had thought of the possibilities of being insane, naive, etc...

If you think its lazy, well you're probably right, but there really isn't anything I can do about that.

No I hadn't thought about being insane or naive, but that doesn't make sense with the flavor. If I'm checking company records that only I have access to I should be right every time, now shouldn't I? Maybe someone can break in and alter them, and is so investigation immune.

However, since you ask, I would make a case on them as best I could, and if I was unable to get the lynch through, I would claim and present my information.

I am of the opinion that it is not useful to consider insanity or other conditions until they have been proven to exist. If I get a guilty result I go for it.

[Slaxx]

Okay. Mass prod picked up.

@Xvart: You've had two full days, 1 a weekend day, to catch up and post these promised reads on people, Without having any extra conversation to pick up on, and you still haven't done so. Is there any point in time you think you'll have these up?

@ Peanut: Besides your reffered post on Nachommama, do you have any other reasons for voting him?

@GK: You still didn't answer my question about your opinion on the recent events. You used it as kind of a que to get back in the game. Don't you think a claimed cop (even though he is un-cced) should be more protown just in case you get investigations results tomorrow? Don't you think that would increase the merit of your results?

[Gerhard Krause]

I don't see how it makes a difference. You either believe me or you don't, and there is not much I can do to alter your opinions of my protownness before my results become of consequence.

[peanutman]

@Slaxx, the he dropped the hammer is the main point of suspicion. But there's also his series of questions on 478 which were all answered with my claim. He says that he just saw PGO and jumped on the reply. Although that may be true, the way he flipped out on it doesn't seem like a normal townie reaction IMO. There was also the last question that he asked that, looking over again, brings something else up.

If so, you do realize that would mean raider was your only suspect before, and you suspected me for dropping a hammer on your first and only suspect, correct?

Nacho, why is it wrong for me to suspect someone who directly drops a hammer after being absent for a little while? Even though raider was suspicious in my eyes, that doesn't mean that I ingore anyone who directs actions towards him. What you did was scummy in my eyes not because it was on Raider, but how it was done, regardless on who.

Will re-read the thread tomorrow morning and post my second suspect (with reasoning behind it).

[Green Crayons]

I agree that peanut is obviously the SK, but the real question for me is whether or not to leave him around. We can do mental 11th dimensional chess all day long (as to: whether SK will target scum/town, whether scum will target SK/town, when would be best to lynch SK, etc), but at the end of the day it's my goal - and all other town members - to rid the town of

all threats

.

And a threat that's staring us in the face shouldn't be passed up, especially when there's too many uncontrollable variables at play. Lynching SK won't doom the town this night and leaving him alive takes what control we, the town, have over the situation. I'm not going to trust the scum to do what's best for the town even if it may be in their eventual interest. Furthermore, the SK has already done the best he could do for us: kill a scumbag. He's playing for himself - if he decides targeting someone he finds obvtown will keep him alive just a bit longer, he'll do it.

So,

vote: peanut

. I'm leaning towards ML being a second scumbag.

[MacavityLock]

Nacho, I still don't see it. To make that kind of "must not kill SK" declaration, it really has to be 100% clear that not killing the SK will lead the town to a better position. Right now, I see cases where not lynching the SK will lead to unwinnable for town. That's

not

good play.

Still, I'm not convinced that peanut is SK. Can anyone make a case why peanut

isn't

a PGO?

Slaxx, xvart's been replaced by Pulindar. Are you talking to Pulindar there? Are you saying his lurking is any worse than everyone else's in the game?

I'm leaning towards ML being a second scumbag.

Why?

I need to read WNH to see if I can find connections. Sorry I haven't had a chance to do that yet. Semester just started, and I was teaching all last week.

[Slaxx]

Crap, no, I meant Pulindar. Slaxx is namefailing up the butt. Sorry, Pulindar.

[Pulindar]

@Xvart: You've had two full days, 1 a weekend day, to catch up and post these promised reads on people, Without having any extra conversation to pick up on, and you still haven't done so. Is there any point in time you think you'll have these up?

First off, I don't care about the name slip, it happens

More importantly though. I didn't promise reads, I promised to let you know my reads when I got them. Yes, I realize I'm not adding anything, and I'm sorry about that, but I'm having a little trouble finding anything to add. Heck I haven't even voted. Also, in case you didn't notice, we got mass prodded because nothing was going on which means no one had to much to add.

I did say what I thought of Peanut's claim, that I don't like the SK idea, and I was the first to think of the PGO, but I'm still not certain I like how he claimed. it's very coincidental. Then again, it seems like everyone feels similarly.

As for GK, as I said before my gut tells me that GK and Nacho are the best suspects, but I STILL don't have a case. Did you expect it to pop up out of thin air? It's not because I haven't read through, it's because any evidence I have found I don't like.

@ Green Crayons

I see what you're saying, and I'm not usually a fan of randomness, or chance, but I'd really rather go after a scum today. If we can't find anyone who we're sure are scum then I'm willing to vote for Peanut, but I think we have time and so I'm going to wait.

Also, I do have to say I'm still not 100% sure that Peanut is SK. I know that it was coincidental that he claimed PGO, but honestly it's not the worst claim I've ever seen.

@ML

Leaving an SK opens up possibilities if we can get scum today. If not then leaving him wioll be terrible for us. That's why I said if we can be sure of a scum lynch I'd be willing to vote for that, but if there is any reasonable doubt then I'd rather take out Peanut and take our chances with the scum.

[Budja]

Votecount

1 - Nachomamma8: (peanutman)
1 - Pulindar: (Slaxx)
1 - Gerhard Krause: (Nachomamma8)
1 - peanutman: (Green Crayons)

Not Voting: Pulindar, Gerhard Krause, MacavityLock

With

7

alive it will take

4

to lynch.

Deadline: 10pm, 20th February AEST

Note that while I will be more lax with prods whie Nacho is away, I still expect posting . Mass-prod going out tomorrow if this doesn't pick up.

[Pulindar]

Read and noted. have to go atm but will respond with something later.

[Green Crayons]

Still, I'm not convinced that peanut is SK. Can anyone make a case why peanut

isn't

a PGO?

I'm curious how asking the question in this format is more useful than asking for someone to make the case that peanut is a SK. Furthermore, you're asking someone to prove a negative. Walking dangerously close to the whole asking someone to prove a negative.

I'm leaning towards ML being a second scumbag.

Why?

Because of wolf's attitude towards you (distancing), your predecessor's notable "say something and then vanish" act plus some of your own actions which I recall as being suspicious the last time I did a post-by-post read of you. Which I will actually voice in more definite terms when I have the time to reread/post at length.

@ Green Crayons

I see what you're saying, and I'm not usually a fan of randomness, or chance, but I'd really rather go after a scum today. If we can't find anyone who we're sure are scum then I'm willing to vote for Peanut, but I think we have time and so I'm going to wait.

I would rather definitely extinguish a whole kill group (SK) rather than cripple one and leave two anti-town groups alive. That said, I would like to lynch the most definite anti-town around, so if someone looks more anti-town than peanut in the meanwhile, I would be up for their neck in a noose.

[MacavityLock]

Still, I'm not convinced that peanut is SK. Can anyone make a case why peanut

isn't

a PGO?

I'm curious how asking the question in this format is more useful than asking for someone to make the case that peanut is a SK. Furthermore, you're asking someone to prove a negative. Walking dangerously close to the whole asking someone to prove a negative.

They're actually pretty much equivalent questions in this situation. I think that we can all agree that peanut is unlikely to be maf. Therefore, he is either town-aligned and unlikely to lie about the fact that he is PGO, or he is 3rd party (probably SK) and is lying about being PGO. It boils down to PGO or SK, right? So, (not PGO) = (SK) in this case. That is, I'm just as interested to hear a peanut-SK case as I would be to hear a peanut-not-PGO case.

Still owe a wnh read, which has been prevented by jury duty.

[Green Crayons]

I think that we can all agree that peanut is unlikely to be maf.

Why?

[MacavityLock]

I think that we can all agree that peanut is unlikely to be maf.

Why?

Peanut has pretty much claimed the wnh kill, one way or the other. I think it's pretty unlikely that the maf killed one of their own. (Is that even possible?) So, if peanut is maf, we're left with him covering for the true wnh-killer, who would likely be an SK. I guess this is possible, but I really don't see any incentive for peanut-maf to cover like this, especially given the manner in which he claimed PGO.

[Pulindar]

Actually, I can almost buy that. Still, I'm not certain. He could just be fake claiming the kill, and something random could have happened.

I don't like getting in ruts with my thinking.

Still, I do see ML's logic, and I can say that it seems like a better certainty than anything else we have.

I was thinking about something else by the way. What if Peanut was a serial killer who got activated after the first night, or a PGO who turned serial killer after he killed someone? Those are two other possibilities. Based on what I heard about the role name and based on what I've read about SKs

[Pulindar]

Also, I forgot to mention, that I don't like that Nacho used the same exact logic for peanut being a serial killer over being a PGO that Wolf used for Raider being mafia over being a night vig.

[Budja]

Mass-prod time!

[peanutman]

I agree that peanut is obviously the SK

I think that we can all agree that peanut is unlikely to be maf.

Why?

From me being obviously SK to questionning why I couldn't be mafia?

Anyways, peanut. Let's assume you're town. Who are the bad guys?

With questions like these, you seem to be pushing my lynch without really evaluating the validity of my claim. How could I know who the bad guys are? This questions reeks of an ulterior motive. Either you are a close-minded townie or an opportunistic scum.

All in all, I don't like your approach to my claim, and not so much because it's regarding me (though that did play a part in me looking into it) but because your close-mindedness is not helpful to town and your play is wreckless in my opinion. If you did realise that my claim is true, I am a huge asset to the town if played correctly.

Vote : GreenCrayons

[MacavityLock]

OK, I did my WNH connections read. My favorite scumtells based on connections to known scum are people the scum found suspicious but didn't deserve it, people the scum didn't find suspicious but did deserve it, and the same tells from living players to the dead scum.

Ecto and wnh played a pretty tight game in this regard. Their only votes were as follows:
Ecto: Nacho (RV), Gerhard (minor tell), raider (dead, don't care), Suave (dead)
WNH: 5cvm (same basic role info case as everyone, pile-on?), Suave, raider

And other than the votes, their other suspicions were on dead guys, unless I'm missing something.

People who voted Ecto/wnh: Nacho (RV), Gerhard (OMGUS on above minor tell vote), and again unless I'm missing something, that's it.

One thing that jumps out at me is Ecto & Nacho RVing each other. But other than that, based on "faked" suspicions or non-suspicions, I'd say Gerhard comes out looking worst, but it's really minor.

Given my other suspicions of Gerhard, I think he's the most likely to be maf buddies with wnh, even if has cop claimed without a counter.

Still, I'd like to get the peanut stuff sorted out first. Who wants to make the peanut-SK case? Right now, I do think he's more likely to be PGO, but I also think that he should absolutely be the lynch if he is SK.

[Slaxx]

Peanut, I read that as more of "whats your opinion on scum", although I do agree there is a better way to word it.

Peanut, this seems kind of OMGUS to me. Do you really blame us for doubting your claim when you held off so long? You've accused both people who think you're SK to be nervous scum. I'm still wondering about it, just to establish my position. NK records indicate a serious doubt in me, but you're behavior and manner in which you claimed just isn't sitting right with me, as I've already stated. I don't know if it warrants my vote, yet. You're definitely deserving of one more read and I'll come back with that as soon as I can. I still have my qualms with xvart/pulindar. If we do accidently lynch a possible PGO, as peanut said (yes i know hes on the defensive but he brings up a good point regardless), we could be lynching a very powerful role on our side.

tl;dr: Im whaffly on peanut and feel I owe him a good thorough read before a possible vote change.

[Gerhard Krause]

I have honestly forgotten who my suspects were. I've picked up my prod, so I'm going to start fresh and reread. See you in a few hours if I finish.

[Budja]

Votecount

1 - Pulindar: (Slaxx)
1 - Gerhard Krause: (Nachomamma8)
1 - peanutman: (Green Crayons)
1 - GreenCrayons: (peanutman)

Not Voting: Green Crayons, Pulindar, Gerhard Krause, MacavityLock

With

7

alive it will take

4

to lynch.

Deadline: 10pm, 20th February AEST

That's 5 days to go FYI.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, why is it wrong for me to suspect someone who directly drops a hammer after being absent for a little while?

It was the hammer on your top suspect, and a suspect you felt strongly about. Also, you haven't really presented WHY the hammer was wrong, you've only said that it was wrong.

Lynching SK won't doom the town this night and leaving him alive takes what control we, the town, have over the situation.

Sure, it won't doom the town, but it'll put us in a considerably worse situation. We'll most likely be thrown into a 5 person LyLo, and need 2 consecutive correct lynches to win. Let's not forget that we also don't have too great of ideas on who exactly the two remaining mafiosos are, either.

I would rather definitely extinguish a whole kill group (SK) rather than cripple one and leave two anti-town groups alive.

Normally, I would agree with you. However, in extinguishing one group, we're crippling ourselves. SKs are anti-everyone; all they care about is surviving. So as long as keeping town members alive is in his best interest, then he will keep town members alive. And there IS the possibility that he is the PGO, which is still a force that could absolutely screw the mafia in the end when the game is most definitely theirs (endgaming him= draw), which means that it's in our best interest to keep him alive for today.

He could just be fake claiming the kill, and something random could have happened.

That's unlikely. Far too likely to be countered, and not enough gain for the risk.

Also, I forgot to mention, that I don't like that Nacho used the same exact logic for peanut being a serial killer over being a PGO that Wolf used for Raider being mafia over being a night vig.

Explain? I don't see the similarities...

Who wants to make the peanut-SK case?

Green Crayons needs to. He's 100% sure peanut is the SK, and he wants him dead today.

[Green Crayons]

The thread is 128 pages in Word. I'm going to print out at work tomorrow and review.