Mini 889 - Shopping Frenzy (Over)

[nhammen]

Vote Count

Debonair Danny DiPietro (1): don_johnson

Not voting (4): Adel, Debonair Danny DiPietro, julienvonwolfe, muh316

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

[don_johnson]

So your theory is that we just had a mass claim and that optimal strategy is to assume that a pro-town player lied about their claim giving incomplete information. I revise my previous statement from box of hammers to bag of rocks. Or are you still assuming that Adel is a "mafia ninja" when that modifier doesn't exist in this game, per the semi-open setup. I revise bag of rocks to gallon of milk.

no. you're missing the point. accusing player a of being sk without any plausible evidence is as useful as accusing player b of having an "investigation modifier". they are both "equally" silly. yet you choose one over the other. the one you choose castrates town if you are wrong by lynching a bulletproof player who has done an excellent job uncovering the scum team.

He does not have a role similar to a tracker, JVW's alleged role shows ONLY if players1 uses ability x to target player2, it does not tell JVW what the ability was, it does not tell him who he targeted it only says "Yes - player 1 targets someone with something" or "No - player 1 did not target anyone".

yes. so he can, in fact, target either myself or muh and make sure we are doing what we should be. the point is moot if you are lynched because you are the final scum. your ad hom proves that to me. i have played with you a few times now and you have never insulted me in such a way. if you were so confident you would be okay with your own lynch today because you are vanilla and you are basing your idea of lynching me off of mathematical calculations to give town a chance to win. why should you be kept alive instead of me?

1. why didn't you claim your kill when you claim bullet proof?

answered.

quote="adel"]2. why did you kill Liam instead of me right after you breadcrumbed killing me if ABR was town?[/quote]

it was liam's end of day comments which led me to use my shot. i have already answered this. i didn't breadcrumb killing you. i haven't breadcrumbed anything in this game. i actually considered holding the shot, but i felt that liam was a good target. i had him as town ealier. his switch seemed off.

3. If you thought that Liam was guilty why didn't you ever vote for him?

never had the chance. his scumminess came out at the end of the day when ABR was already set to be lynched.

4. why did you forget to claim that you have an Investigation Modifier?

i claimed what was in my pm. as far as i can tell i do not have an investigation modifier. if "gunsmith" was in the game then i would guess that the modifier would have been included in my pm. the mod will not reveal any more information to me.

5. If you thought liam was scummy, why didn't you ever voice suspicions of him in this thread?

again. didn't think he was scummy until the end of the day. no chance to "voice" suspicions.


no concrete reason to "eliminate" me here. ddd is trying to eviscerate town power to make his job easier. tack on his near non existence in thread until today and his recent ad hom and you have scum number three.

when are you going to admit that i am awesome?

[Adel]

5. If you thought liam was scummy, why didn't you ever voice suspicions of him in this thread?

again. didn't think he was scummy until the end of the day. no chance to "voice" suspicions.

what posts did he make at the end of that day were scummy, and made before you have a chance to respond?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

So your theory is that we just had a mass claim and that optimal strategy is to assume that a pro-town player lied about their claim giving incomplete information. I revise my previous statement from box of hammers to bag of rocks. Or are you still assuming that Adel is a "mafia ninja" when that modifier doesn't exist in this game, per the semi-open setup. I revise bag of rocks to gallon of milk.

no. you're missing the point. accusing player a of being sk without any plausible evidence is as useful as accusing player b of having an "investigation modifier". they are both "equally" silly. yet you choose one over the other. the one you choose castrates town if you are wrong by lynching a bulletproof player who has done an excellent job uncovering the scum team.

We didn't have any "plausible evidence" in Amished Mafia that you were a Mafia Godfather either, but that wasn't a risk we were willing to take either. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone has any sort of modifiers to their abilities, if they're town there's no reason for them not to claim them, there is no "ninja" modifier and if they're scum then their primary ability is non-existant anyways. There is however a distinct possibility that you are a SK, you can try and explain it away but the fact that your night actions and statements in the game don't align is extremely suspicious.

He does not have a role similar to a tracker, JVW's alleged role shows ONLY if players1 uses ability x to target player2, it does not tell JVW what the ability was, it does not tell him who he targeted it only says "Yes - player 1 targets someone with something" or "No - player 1 did not target anyone".

yes. so he can, in fact, target either myself or muh and make sure we are doing what we should be. the point is moot if you are lynched because you are the final scum. your ad hom proves that to me. i have played with you a few times now and you have never insulted me in such a way. if you were so confident you would be okay with your own lynch today because you are vanilla and you are basing your idea of lynching me off of mathematical calculations to give town a chance to win. why should you be kept alive instead of me?

Muh will show "motion" whether he is scum or not because of his claim. It might force you not to fire if you have that ability, but that still leaves the same paradox for the town. JVW's role has literally no use in terms of bringing new useful information to a three person LYLO. I have been uncomplimentary to you in the past, but you're right I've never been this mean. Because in previous games you just do your own thing regardless of whether it makes any sense but you could at least argue it's your own version of tactics, in this game you've blatently ignored the actual facts at hand.

As to why I should be kept alive instead of you? Because there's no possibility that I have a third party win condition. By eliminating the a killing role and one that might have a third party role we make sure that this doesn't end up being LYLO (mislynch+two NKs) and we simplify the game drastically. By letting you live there exists a ~15-20% chance that you steal the win away from the town, by lynching you we put that percentage back into the town's advantage. It's time to stop debating this with you and move the game along because you're not bringing anything new or useful to the conversation.

Vote: Don_Johnson

[don_johnson]

voting someone he didn't want to lynch with an assertion for "massclaim" tomorrow. ABR still ran the chance of being scum, why set up a massclaim strategy in advance of a flip? suggesting is one thing. certainty is scummy. i also interpreted his questioning of me as sideways suspicion. not sure if thats a recognized term, but i use it to define when a player casts suspicion without backing it up. not always a scum tell, but is certainly situational.

[don_johnson]

We didn't have any "plausible evidence" in Amished Mafia that you were a Mafia Godfather either, but that wasn't a risk we were willing to take either.

you didn't lynch me. i was nk'd. its irrelevant. there is no parralel.

There is absolutely no evidence that anyone has any sort of modifiers to their abilities, if they're town there's no reason for them not to claim them, there is no "ninja" modifier and if they're scum then their primary ability is non-existant anyways.

you seem to deny the very real existence of possible "investigation modifiers". why?

There is however a distinct possibility that you are a SK, you can try and explain it away but the fact that your night actions and statements in the game don't align is extremely suspicious.

what doesn't align? how does one kill in three nights amount to evidence of sk?

Muh will show "motion" whether he is scum or not because of his claim. It might force you not to fire if you have that ability, but that still leaves the same paradox for the town. JVW's role has literally no use in terms of bringing new useful information to a three person LYLO.

false. jvw can win the game for town.

I have been uncomplimentary to you in the past, but you're right I've never been this mean. Because in previous games you just do your own thing regardless of whether it makes any sense but you could at least argue it's your own version of tactics, in this game you've blatently ignored the actual facts at hand.

disagree.

As to why I should be kept alive instead of you? Because there's no possibility that I have a third party win condition.

again. patently false. you may very well have fakeclaimed. also, your win condition doesn't need to be "third party" to endanger town.

By eliminating the a killing role and one that might have a third party role we make sure that this doesn't end up being LYLO (mislynch+two NKs) and we simplify the game drastically. By letting you live there exists a ~15-20% chance that you steal the win away from the town, by lynching you we put that percentage back into the town's advantage. It's time to stop debating this with you and move the game along because you're not bringing anything new or useful to the conversation.

disagree.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

There is absolutely no evidence that anyone has any sort of modifiers to their abilities, if they're town there's no reason for them not to claim them, there is no "ninja" modifier and if they're scum then their primary ability is non-existant anyways.

you seem to deny the very real existence of possible "investigation modifiers". why?

Let's count the assumptions you have to make for your theory to be credible.

You have to assume JVW is town. You have to assume that JVW told the general truth about his role BUT then lied about the specifics despite doing so being completely sub-optimal play in a mass claim situation AND despite the fact that Adel had been harping on getting you to claim every little last bit of your role.

There is no reason to make any of those assumptions on their own, let alone to string them together.

There is however a distinct possibility that you are a SK, you can try and explain it away but the fact that your night actions and statements in the game don't align is extremely suspicious.

what doesn't align? how does one kill in three nights amount to evidence of sk?

Let's see there was a mafia roleblocker, a dead macho doc and another claimed macho doc. Plenty of roles that would stop one or more kills from going through and that ignores the option of not firing to hide your presence. Considering you have claimed a killing role it's certainly viable that you are a SK instead of a Vig.

Muh will show "motion" whether he is scum or not because of his claim. It might force you not to fire if you have that ability, but that still leaves the same paradox for the town. JVW's role has literally no use in terms of bringing new useful information to a three person LYLO.

false. jvw can win the game for town.

Bullshit, I've torn apart this claim at every turn and you just keep saying it regardless to the fact that it's not true. You have yet to lay out a scenario which accounts for every credible scenario where merely keeping JVW alive can give the town an auto-win.

As to why I should be kept alive instead of you? Because there's no possibility that I have a third party win condition.

again. patently false. you may very well have fakeclaimed. also, your win condition doesn't need to be "third party" to endanger town.

Conceded, I "could" be a survivor or something else ridiculous. But since you've claimed one of the two N3 NKs and that makes no sense as mafia which means you're either pro-town or third party which means that any other threat to the town is almost certainly mafia.

By eliminating the a killing role and one that might have a third party role we make sure that this doesn't end up being LYLO (mislynch+two NKs) and we simplify the game drastically. By letting you live there exists a ~15-20% chance that you steal the win away from the town, by lynching you we put that percentage back into the town's advantage. It's time to stop debating this with you and move the game along because you're not bringing anything new or useful to the conversation.

disagree.

What an astute analysis.

[don_johnson]

Let's count the assumptions you have to make for your theory to be credible.

You have to assume JVW is town. You have to assume that JVW told the general truth about his role BUT then lied about the specifics despite doing so being completely sub-optimal play in a mass claim situation AND despite the fact that Adel had been harping on getting you to claim every little last bit of your role.

There is no reason to make any of those assumptions on their own, let alone to string them together.

this makes no sense to me. what are you talking about? do you think jvw is scum? the first two assumptionis go hand in hand. why would you separate them? are you trying to make your points look larger and more impressive? how would he have told the truth but "lied" about specifics? an investigation modifier according to the sample pms is a passive ability that any player can have. how is his claim "sub-optimal"?

Let's see there was a mafia roleblocker, a dead macho doc and another claimed macho doc. Plenty of roles that would stop one or more kills from going through and that ignores the option of not firing to hide your presence. Considering you have claimed a killing role it's certainly viable that you are a SK instead of a Vig.

viable, but not likely as you rourself earlier stated. what's the probability? 25%? how does my lynch improve the odds for a town win as opposed to a no lynch?

Bullshit, I've torn apart this claim at every turn and you just keep saying it regardless to the fact that it's not true. You have yet to lay out a scenario which accounts for every credible scenario where merely keeping JVW alive can give the town an auto-win.

there is no "auto-win". you are pushing a fallacy.

Conceded, I "could" be a survivor or something else ridiculous. But since you've claimed one of the two N3 NKs and that makes no sense as mafia which means you're either pro-town or third party which means that any other threat to the town is almost certainly mafia.

yes. you are mafia. that much is obvious.

What an astute analysis.

ad hom.

here you go:

explain how i win as sk in the next two hypotheticals:

1) you are lynched and flip scum.

2) you are lynched and flip town.

if i am sk, i can't win. therefore it makes no sense to lynch me regardless. my hands are tied in every direction if what you are implying(even though you claim to not believe it) is true. i have found two scum. you are most likely number three. the idea of a fourth scum is farfetched. what benefit do i have as sk to push the lynch of the third scum? if you choose to 180 and believe i am sk, then who is the third scum(both you and adel have implied one exists regardless of my role)?

*this just in: don_johnson is kicking scum ass*

[muh316]

ok DDD why would u vote for an obvious town person anyways. DJ seems to not be mafia and thats what we are all looking for. Now DDD is voting for DJ even though most of us think DJ is town. I guess the best thing for me to do now is vote

vote DDD

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

an investigation modifier according to the sample pms is a passive ability that any player can have. how is his claim "sub-optimal"?

Fucking fuck.

Unvote: Don_Johnson

[muh316]

im not taking my vote off you

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

im not taking my vote off you

I didn't expect you to, doing something like that would require you to have more cognitive power than a goldfish and I've never seen it demonstrated that you have such capabilities.

[julienvonwolfe]

Can we reconsider Muh's claim? How likely is it that there were two macho docs?

It's important to do this, I think, since we're kind of depending on his protect as we go into tomorrow.

[julienvonwolfe]

Okay, posts I don't like from Muh:

Im just going to join the wagon because of the deadline. it seemed to pass by so fast. So we should probably just get on a good wagon for now.

Vote Josh Lyman

Wow great lynch guys. One scum down. And welcome Albert and i really liked that old avatar DDD this one makes me want to punch it in the face. And I guess were back at RVS.

but what happened. Who killed him. And Liam probably blocked me because I protected him. That fool.

The fact that he claims to have protected scum last night is pretty strange. We have no proof that Liam did in fact target him, and no proof that muh is in fact a doctor. So I'm viewing this with a healthy dose of scepticism, especially given what could be his late bus and scummy "woot go us" post following it.

On the other hand, how many macho docs is it usual to have in one setup? It seems to be almost nonsensical to have only one, since then they're basically just a normal doctor.

[muh316]

I assumed he roleblocked me because i wasnt NK'd. Scum team probably though that Liam should RB and kill more of the people we wonnt suspect. Im probably ddying tonight if we mislynch

[don_johnson]

two macho docs doesn't seem unbalanced. we don't know what kind of role scum has left.

at this point, an iso of ddd reveals a similar lyman vote to muh's. i.e. hopping the large wagon towards deadline. i'd like to reread his vote in the context of the thread, but his iso shows him pushing nothing very hard except his initial torquez case(which is imo no better than a random or policy case), and my case today. i again refer you to 829 where i ignored evidence and voted on gut. poor decision.

i think our best course of action is to lynch the player most likely to flip scum based on evidence. barring an investigation modifier adel is most likely clear. barring serial killer i am most likely clear. your own evidence corroborates those situations. muh's claim is questionable, but not overly so imo.

in the event of a mislynch you have two options. watch me, watch muh. if you die, muh is scum. if not, you have a good chance of figuring this out, no? in the event of a scum flip, the game should end. the only way it wouldn't is if i am sk or there is a four player scum team. both more unlikely given the evidence.

it seems regardless of how you feel, we are set up to win. better to have muh around than not during night phase. i would like more thoughts from adel before a hammer.

[Adel]

an investigation modifier according to the sample pms is a passive ability that any player can have. how is his claim "sub-optimal"?

Fucking fuck.

Unvote: Don_Johnson

why did you unvote?

~~~

I'll catch up with the game on Day 2, for now we need to lynch

unvote, vote: josh lyman

Josh, if you're a power role claim now, it might not be too late.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 86#2021186

Muh, claim?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 15#2041515

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

an investigation modifier according to the sample pms is a passive ability that any player can have. how is his claim "sub-optimal"?

Fucking fuck.

Unvote: Don_Johnson

why did you unvote?

Because my theory was based around getting a completely confirmed town-you into endgame. I missed the very generic "investigation modifier" in the list of roles which while unlikely still means you can't be considered confirmed. It might still be the best play to lynch DJ, but it's not the optimal "no doubt in my mind" play.

~~~

Also, potentially great catch in regards to CML's posts there.

[don_johnson]

adel: do you believe ddd is 100% town? if not, why have you avoided questioning him?

ddd: in your own words, why is an investigation modifier "unlikely" as opposed to a "serial killer" with no evidence?

[Adel]

adel: do you believe ddd is 100% town?

nope

if not, why have you avoided questioning him?

you could ask the same question about muh and jvw, neither of whom I believe to be 100% town, and whom I haven't been questioning either.

Perhaps a more direct question would've been to ask why I've been questioning you so much, which has a very simple answer: I think that DJ is the most likey to be scum.

vote:don_johnson

[don_johnson]

you could ask the same question about muh and jvw, neither of whom I believe to be 100% town, and whom I haven't been questioning either.

disagree. you have been suspicious of everyone except ddd.

Perhaps a more direct question would've been to ask why I've been questioning you so much, which has a very simple answer: I think that DJ is the most likey to be scum.

i cannot be scum. i killed liam. that makes zero sense.

the point of my question is that both you and ddd are buddying to each other and neither of you is questioning it. what strikes me as odd is that ddd is normally a logical player. not questioning your sheepishness does not fit his character, especially when your logic and arguments are so blatantly fail.

whats more unimpressive is that the usually logical ddd is also trying to push the lynch of someone he "thinks" is town by using fear-mongering and terrible math. even if you venture into the hypothetical realm of me actually being serial killer, it is scum who poses much more of a threat to a town win than sk. do you realize the odds of a serial killer win? have you iso'd me at all to correlate my early claim with my actual role claim? fear of losing to an sk is a poor reason to lynch the best scumhunter.

you yourself have fought the idea of a 2 scum/1 sk set up. by your own logic, there is another scum regardless of what you honestly believe me to be. in that situation it makes the least sense to lynch a possible sk. especially if that player has singlehandedly neutered the scum team.

sk or bulletproof vig. both pose the most risk to the scum win condition. therefore it is in scums best interest to lynch them before lylo.

if you think i am sk, then you should be more suspicious of muh and/or jvw given your virtual handholding with ddd from the moment you replaced in.

even if you convince yourself that i am third party killer(to which there is zero evidence) it is more logical to find and lynch scum. ddd knows this, and yet he pursued my lynch. when called on it, he backed off. when you voiced continued support he acquiesced to the "possibility". he's playing you for a fool. he is the last scum.

if i am sk, there is near zero chance of me winning. claiming early would have been a "testicles the size of coconuts" type gambit. and scum will always be intent on removing sk from the game. hence, either way you view me: ddd is(or should be) obvscum.

please dredge up one solid case ddd has put together this game. go ahead and iso him. his votes are all ridiculous. now he's pushing a lynch on a bulletproof vig(with a scum killshot, no less) based off of faulty probability ratios and irrational fears.

[Adel]

there is another scum regardless of what you honestly believe me to be.

I agree. You are scum, and there is one more. I need to know if you are SK or mafia in order to find that last scum player.

That your claim of having killed Liam wasn't countered doesn't bother me in the least. It certainly doesn't mean that you can't be mafia. It just means that if you are mafia then DDD or jvw is the SK who chose not to counter you.

I don't buy your day 1 claim of bulletproof with no other abilities.

I don't buy your claim of one-shot vig with no investigation modifiers or other passive abilities.

I don't buy your claim of killing Liam instead of me as a town-aligned vig.

I don't buy your constant claim that being suspicious of your claim is a scum-tell. Town players should be hella suspicious of your claim of killing Liam.

I don't buy that you being early on the Josh wagon clears you of being scum with him. As you once said in a scum quicktopic

"i would sya we buss each other if need be, but try and make good arguments instead of bullshit. we need the other two to come out smelling clean, right?"

source: http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/QZBwYqQsCuvZk

[Adel]

EBWOP:
I don't buy your constant claim that being suspicious of your claim is a scum-tell. Town players should've been hella suspicious of your claim, even before you added to your claim by claiming the Liam kill.

[don_johnson]

you are truly useless. are you now arguing the existence of a four player scum team?

congratulations on finding another piece of evidence from outside this game thread to bolster your case. for someone so intent on building a "meta" case you seem to be completely content

not

investigating anyone else.

your ignorance of physical in thread evidence is noted. you have not produced a single piece of evidence from this game that implicates me as scum and cherry picking comments from other games is called using quotes out of context. if you

really

looked at my meta you would notice that i play every game different.

whatever. its out of my hands at this point. ddd lynch should end the game unless you are scum number four. that much is becoming painfully obvious.

[don_johnson]

also. in response to your ebwop. reread my original claim. i clearly explained what my role was and that there may be other facets i was not divulging. also, if you think i am scum or sk, then my role pm would also supposedly contain a passive investigation modifier in regards to carrying a gun. if i were fakeclaiming i would be stupid not to include that. it being included in the sample pm is most likely a mod error and should be null tell at best.