Mini 909: Nice'n'Fun Mafia (Game Over)

[hitogoroshi]

Angelmouse considered FBI without SK, but thought it was unlikely. She also said that she thought tracker was scum for things she has already said, and was merely saying that she disagreed with his claim now. I disagree, but there's nothing scummy about disagreeing with my personal analysis.

The two differences with mindgamer. First, he has not expressed any significant tracker-scum read prior to that vote. Secondly, he said this d1:

The Tracker's role claim is interesting. It's not a very safe role to claim, so I believe it to be true for the moment. If there are two nightkills tonight, The Tracker's role is pretty much confirmed. If there is only one nightkill, The Tracker would be more suspicious, because I don't think the mafia/SK would waste their nightkill only to raise suspicion on The Tracker.

Though the chance that we have an FBI Agent without a Serial Killer also exists, of course.

(emphasis mine)

and yet today voted tracker with nothing more than 'only one night kill', as though the lack of a second kill held enough power in itself to make a tracker vote axiomatic.

Do you seriously not see the difference?

[Flareonage]

That makes more sense. I'm gonna keep my vote on you until something better comes up. It's likely scum jumped on at least 1 of the wagons and the Tracker wagon makes more sense to me

[Nachomamma8]

Then why are you voting Hito as opposed to Tracker?

[Flareonage]

I meant the reasons for people voting tracker make more sense then the reasons for the people voting mindgamer. If I had been online when the day phase started I probably would've voted the tracker too. I've never seen an FBI agent role so I would've thought an SK would be here but I guess not

[The Tracker]

Nacho, may I ask what changed your mind about me?

[Nachomamma8]

CPR Doctor flip.

We either have an SK with you around, or we don't. If there is a high chance of there being an SK, it's most likely Hoopla (I can see a Tracker finding Mafia and Vig, and an FBI Agent - SK Combo).

Now, I find it highly unlikely that you would decide to claim FBI Agent as opposed to just straight cop, and the CPR Doc flip just solidified that in my mind.

[Flareonage]

If there is a high chance of there being an SK, it's most likely Hoopla (I can see a Tracker finding Mafia and Vig, and an FBI Agent - SK Combo).

why Hoopla?

[Cruciare]

Vote Count

Mindgamer (3)

hitogoroshi, AGar, Nachomamma8

The Tracker (2)

angelmouse, Mindgamer

hitogoroshi (1)

Flareonage

Not Voting (4)

RedCoyote, Hoopla, cruelty, The Tracker

With ten alive, it takes six to stone to death.

[Hoopla]

Angelmouse, yesterday your most valuable piece of scumhunting revolved around the Quagmire wagon. Now that he has flipped town, I'd like you to look at his lynch wagon and figure out who is there insincerely.

~~

My take on the Quagmire lynch is that it's possible scum weren't manipulating the latter stages of the lynch. This is due to a strong town read on Tracker, who was the main lynch rival of Quagmire at the end of Day 1. If this is true and both competing wagons were town, scum have far more options to either sit back or push them as they please. If one of the competing wagons is scum, it makes for far more information, but I don't think it was.

Mindgamer is currently a good wagon, but I'd like to see someone else with a few votes to vie for lynch. The worse thing that can happen today is a Mindgamer lynch (if he's town) without someone else feeling the pressure of the noose.

If my theory about two town wagons on D1 is true, it improves my RedCoyote theory of condemning the Quagmire lynch in order for town points. If there is no risk of a scum lynch (a townie leading the back-up lynch), it enables these stances for scum - a good chance to try and gain town credit by being 'right' about a situation. The way RedCoyote was arguing, it looked as if he

knew

Quagmire would flip town, and was specifically tailoring his arguments to fit this option.

Vote: RedCoyote

[RedCoyote]

How does the CPR doctor flip and lack of second night kill bode for our FBI Agent claim then?

A number of things could account for this. Traditionally I do not assume there is one killing party after only one night of activity. If there were multiple shots, they could've been on the same person. There could be a Roleblocker, there could be another Doctor, there could be a Jailer, there could be a Bulletproof vest, etc.

I'm not saying the most likely explanation is that there for sure is an SK alive, but rather your comparison is not equal.

---

Can you explain further? I have never played with a tracker before and a little unfamilure with the role and how that doesn't bode well for a Miller.

The only thing that makes a Miller different than any other townie is the results you get upon a Cop's investigation. With Cyberbob flipping Tracker, one of three things must be true:

Either the town has a Tracker and a Cop role, the town has a Miller and no Cop role (defeating the purpose of the Miller, but the setup maybe designed to throw us off), or there is no Miller and potentially no Cop.

---

Well, the role PM warned me there was a chance there was no SK.

This sounds honest albeit self-serving.

---

(or do millers flip scum when they die, as well?)

These are called Death Millers at MS, and as far as I know they are generally frowned upon.

---

From my perspective, it is far more likely that this is a set-up gimmick, rather than scum-Tracker getting lucky with a fakeclaim that locks in with other roles.

I think you're trying to slip your way into The Tracker's, in my opinion, much more believable situation. I do not think FBI Agents are a common as Millers are, but I am open to being proven wrong.

---

I love hito's post 325. I'm actually very supportive of the Mindgamer wagon, which I feel kind of surprised with. Not surprised at my taking to it, but that the wagon exists at all.

---

I meant the reasons for people voting tracker make more sense then the reasons for the people voting mindgamer. If I had been online when the day phase started I probably would've voted the tracker too. I've never seen an FBI agent role so I would've thought an SK would be here but I guess not

Bare with me, Flare, as I try my best to translate this fairly.

You're saying your kneejerk reaction is to vote The Tracker, but that since you saw other people do it, you realized it was the wrong thing to do. Additionally, you don't believe there is an SK, but you do believe The Tracker's claim, because of the benefit you had from reading everyone else's early D2 posts?

Is this correct?

---

Now, I find it highly unlikely that you would decide to claim FBI Agent as opposed to just straight cop, and the CPR Doc flip just solidified that in my mind.

Agreed.

---

Mindgamer is currently a good wagon, but I'd like to see someone else with a few votes to vie for lynch. The worse thing that can happen today is a Mindgamer lynch (if he's town) without someone else feeling the pressure of the noose.

I agree with this, but I obviously don't agree with your conclusion. I don't like your claim right now, Hoopla, if I haven't made that clear enough. I'm not suspicious enough to act on it, but I'm suspicious enough to be the voice of the minority.

You asked a question of angel, but I'm going to put my two cents in it as well. Both cruelty and Flare stick out of Quagmire's wagon like nobody's business. I don't particularly like your participation in it either, but that's another argument.

I seriously got the impression that cruelty voted Quagmire almost purely out of spite, especially after their little slapfest at the end of the day. He won't agree with that characterization of course, but the town can draw their own conclusions. cruelty played a big part in artifically extending that wagon. He either did so out of emotion and principle, being against Quagmire's D1 play, or he did so to because he did not want another wagon to garner any steam, as lynching townQuagmire or (supposedly) townTheTracker would've been good enough.

I've already made my opinion clear on Flare, and that's not really changed much. I don't like his inconsistencies, and his jump to the Quagmire wagon was about as weak as a vote could be. Flare is particularly intent on making sure the town knows he is not responsible for anything that goes wrong with his vote. That shoots up all sorts of red flags in my head.

Of the two, who am I more likely to be wrong on? Flare.

Vote: cruelty

with the reminder that I do not dislike the Mindgamer wagon, but that, like Hoopla said, it's extremely important to have at least two people realistically vying for the lynch.

[The Tracker]

Oteh, skimming back through the thread I'm finding two things I don't really like.

First, Mindgamer's 180 on me. Yes, I know angel also voted me, but she's consistent in her decision. Mindgamer seems to be saying 'Well, looks like we can try for an early lynch with this guy.' I would like to see his reasoning for that.

FLAREON, USE SMOKESCREEN! Heh, Pokemon reference. But seriously, I voted for him yesterday for his smokescreening and apparant sidetracking attempt, and I'm not completely settled about it today. I'm going to keep my eye on him.

I'll do a proper re-read when I can. Busy busy busy...>.<

[Hoopla]

Can you explain further? I have never played with a tracker before and a little unfamilure with the role and how that doesn't bode well for a Miller.

The only thing that makes a Miller different than any other townie is the results you get upon a Cop's investigation. With Cyberbob flipping Tracker, one of three things must be true:

Either the town has a Tracker and a Cop role, the town has a Miller and no Cop role (defeating the purpose of the Miller, but the setup maybe designed to throw us off), or there is no Miller and potentially no Cop.

Lets apply this logic to The Tracker's situation now.

Either the town has a CPR Doctor (basically a vig) and an SK, the town has an FBI Agent and no SK (defeating the purpose of an FBI Agent, but the set-up may be designed to throw us off), or there is no FBI Agent and potentially no SK.

~~

So, how are you finding my claim suspicious, but not The Trackers? I think they are

very

comparable.

[Hoopla]

Here's a pop quiz for RedCoyote (and anyone else who wants to be awesome);


1. If Tracker's claim is found to be fake, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be real or fake?
2. If Hoopla's claim is found to be fake, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
3. If Tracker's claim is found to be real, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be fake or real?
4. If Hoopla's claim is found to be real, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
5. Which is a more likely combination; Tracker/Cop or CPR Doctor/SK?
6. Which is a more likely combination; no cop/SK, SK but no cop, Cop but no SK, Cop and SK?
7. If neither a cop or SK exist in this set-up, which is more likely; an FBI agent, a miller, both miller and FBI, or neither roles?

Remember to show your work.

[Hoopla]

From my perspective, it is far more likely that this is a set-up gimmick, rather than scum-Tracker getting lucky with a fakeclaim that locks in with other roles.

I think you're trying to slip your way into The Tracker's, in my opinion, much more believable situation. I do not think FBI Agents are a common as Millers are, but I am open to being proven wrong.

Millers are more normal, although a recent trend seems to be that some mods don't tell you you're a miller. FBI Agent also can go by the name of Psychologist but is still quite uncommon. Why do you associate commonness of the role with believability?

[RedCoyote]

1. If Tracker's claim is found to be fake, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be real or fake?
2. If Hoopla's claim is found to be fake, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
3. If Tracker's claim is found to be real, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be fake or real?
4. If Hoopla's claim is found to be real, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
5. Which is a more likely combination; Tracker/Cop or CPR Doctor/SK?
6. Which is a more likely combination; no cop/SK, SK but no cop, Cop but no SK, Cop and SK?
7. If neither a cop or SK exist in this set-up, which is more likely; an FBI agent, a miller, both miller and FBI, or neither roles?

1. I'd like to say it wouldn't have any effect, because that doesn't change the fact that it's hard for me to stomach a town with a Tracker and a Cop. It would likely make your claim more believable though.
2. I would probably be more skeptical.
3. More likely to be fake. Doesn't change the fact that I have a hard time believing Cop + Tracker.
4. Opposite of number two, I would probably be more likely to believe it, if anything.
5. I honestly would say the latter. We don't know how big the mafia team or teams are.
6. Right now it's no Cop or SK. That could change tomorrow.
7. If neither role exist, then neither the FBI Agent nor the Miller is likely. That doesn't necessarily mean that is what I believe to be the case though.

Millers are more normal, although a recent trend seems to be that some mods don't tell you you're a miller. FBI Agent also can go by the name of Psychologist but is still quite uncommon. Why do you associate commonness of the role with believability?

Well, why

wouldn't

you? I mean, I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but I'm going to tend to accept a Doctor claim over a Super Saint claim. That's a little more exaggerated, but I really do consider the Miller as a very common role. I certainly wouldn't put it by someone like you to strategically throw a Miller claim out early in the game as a precautionary measure.

[hitogoroshi]

The correct answer to Hoopla's quiz is 'stop defensively speculating about PR's and start playing the game.'

I can sort of see where she's coming from with her vote on RC. While statistically Quag was more likely to be town that scum, he did seem to be fairly strongly neglecting the possibility of Quag-scum. But Hoopla's last three posts really rub me the wrong way. I get the impression that she went for a deliberately 'hard' looking target so she can look townie, doesn't actually intend to PUSH the RC wagon but instead will just defend her claim, and will 'compromise' on a lynch later in the day. Hoopla, let's focus less on 'this is why I'm a miller' and more on 'this is why you should all vote for RC'.

(That being said, there are still quite a few of you bums contributing less than Hoopla here, and I'm mostly just suspicious because I hold her to a higher standard of content.)

[Hoopla]

1. I'd like to say it wouldn't have any effect, because that doesn't change the fact that it's hard for me to stomach a town with a Tracker and a Cop. It would likely make your claim more believable though.

You cannot fathom two investigation roles in the one set-up, but think three different killing roles is a real chance?

~~

Ignoring the FBI Agent/SK side of things, how do you rate the possibility of a miller with no cop?

[Hoopla]

The correct answer to Hoopla's quiz is 'stop defensively speculating about PR's and start playing the game.'

I can sort of see where she's coming from with her vote on RC. While statistically Quag was more likely to be town that scum, he did seem to be fairly strongly neglecting the possibility of Quag-scum. But Hoopla's last three posts really rub me the wrong way. I get the impression that she went for a deliberately 'hard' looking target so she can look townie, doesn't actually intend to PUSH the RC wagon but instead will just defend her claim, and will 'compromise' on a lynch later in the day. Hoopla, let's focus less on 'this is why I'm a miller' and more on 'this is why you should all vote for RC'.

Hito, the reason why I am probing is because I think RedCoyote's decision is gut, but he is trying to use logic to justify it.

Questions 1-4 were designed to identify a slightly more visual map of his suspicions of the claims. The other questions (and my previous post where I superimposed my scenario on RC's logic) create a bigger logical hole - it seems as if he genuinely believes it is a decent chance that there is an SK in this set-up (although answers 5 and 7 seem to be conficting on this issue).

Either way, it's really quite bizarre to consider an SK when there was no second nightkill

and

a town killing role has been flipped, and then NOT consider a cop because a tracker role flipped. He is freely creating suspicion on me from the logic there is probably no cop in this set-up, and letting Tracker off even though there is probably no SK.

The other reasoning behind his suspicions I don't believe. Letting The Tracker off because he claimed an uncommon role as opposed to a common role is laughable. Quick question for RC; if roles were reversed, and I had claimed FBI Agent, and Tracker had claimed Miller, would you hold the same suspicions?
~~

Hito, the day has barely begun, give me some time before I start churning out cases to break the game. This is important to me at the moment.

[hitogoroshi]

Well I still think you're wasting both your time and ours with that line of inquiry, but you're at least following a line of inquiry at all which is more than can be said of most people here. So I guess for now I'll just sit back and watch the show.

[Nachomamma8]

why Hoopla?

This is a mini normal game we're playing in. So, if Hoopla knows she's not investigation immune, she has the most to gain from claiming Miller.

[Flareonage]

Bare with me, Flare, as I try my best to translate this fairly.

You're saying your kneejerk reaction is to vote The Tracker, but that since you saw other people do it, you realized it was the wrong thing to do. Additionally, you don't believe there is an SK, but you do believe The Tracker's claim, because of the benefit you had from reading everyone else's early D2 posts?

Is this correct?

Yes, that's correct. I've never seen an FBI role so naturally I assumed that it would be paired with an SK role. I saw from other peoples post that that is not always the case

[AGar]

The correct answer to Hoopla's quiz is 'stop defensively speculating about PR's and start playing the game.'

Winner. Hoopla, that post just smells like you trying to throw the town of trails by posting up nonsense.

How about instead of this speculation nonsense, we either discuss the claims at hand (Miller, FBI Agent) and their respective likelihood alone - timing, nature - and also look into possibly lynching people who are looking scummy without claims - i.e, Mindgamer, who has been active lurking THE ENTIRE GAME.

[Hoopla]

How about instead of this speculation nonsense, we either discuss the claims at hand (Miller, FBI Agent) and their respective likelihood alone - timing, nature - and also look into possibly lynching people who are looking scummy without claims - i.e, Mindgamer, who has been active lurking THE ENTIRE GAME.

Sure, how about you begin.

[RedCoyote]

I can sort of see where she's coming from with her vote on RC. While statistically Quag was more likely to be town that scum, he did seem to be fairly strongly neglecting the possibility of Quag-scum.

When the chips were down and I saw no other viable option... I voted Quagmire. What gets me is, no one was really interested in making a case against Quagmire. You know that better than anyone here, I think. You were able to step back from the siutation and say, "Hey, wait, maybe this wagon against Quagmire is more based on emotion rather than substance".

That's how I saw it from the beginning. I'm not bragging, townies are always going to make mistakes, but I'm just saying that I didn't seriously consider the Quagmire wagon because there was nothing to consider. I lost on D1 as well, as those who did not support the Quagmire wagon were ultimately not able to convince the others that the lynch was no good.

---

how do you rate the possibility of a miller with no cop?

It's possible. Are you implying there is a theme to the roles?

Letting The Tracker off because he claimed an uncommon role as opposed to a common role is laughable.

Well, I answered your question, now you get to defend your side. Why? Why does claiming a more "common" role necessarily make you more believable than The Tracker?

Quick question for RC; if roles were reversed, and I had claimed FBI Agent, and Tracker had claimed Miller, would you hold the same suspicions?

Same suspicions of you or of the role situation?

---

Well I still think you're wasting both your time and ours with that line of inquiry, but you're at least following a line of inquiry at all which is more than can be said of most people here. So I guess for now I'll just sit back and watch the show.

Since you're content on kicking back, let me grill you a bit. If Mindgamer was taken out of the picture, who is next on your list?

[AGar]

How about instead of this speculation nonsense, we either discuss the claims at hand (Miller, FBI Agent) and their respective likelihood alone - timing, nature - and also look into possibly lynching people who are looking scummy without claims - i.e, Mindgamer, who has been active lurking THE ENTIRE GAME.

Sure, how about you begin.

Sure thing. I already posted my initial suspicions of Mindgamer in post #218 (look it up, I'm too lazy to fight with the awful forum BBcode).

To expand on that, he comes in during this day and provides a quick vote with a bogus reason on a player whom he got attacked for defending yesterday.

He has been sketchy in his attendance at best, active lurking at worst.

He's provided no content and is sliding under the radar almost completely un-pressured to this point. All the while, people are going on about their roleclaims and he's got nothing but "No SK kill last night. Can't be an FBI Cop. Vote vote vote." Seriously?

---

Complete thoughts on Hoopla's claim? It's bogus. Nevermind the fact that a self-aware miller is, in my opinion, bullshit. The claim had no reason to be put out there other than to basically fuck with any potential cop we have. It was unprovoked and just useless. If you're town, we gain nothing from the claim. Scum gains everything from it whether you are scum or you aren't scum. If you are scum, you basically nullify any potential investigations on yourself and leave us to a wonderful guessing game of the veracity, while as for if you aren't mafia, you've wonderfully created us this guessing game of "what the hell is going on" and your smokescreen posting and your games of 20 questions are doing nothing to help the town find the actual scum.

---

Tracker's claim? I buy it for a couple of smaller factors. First, I don't necessarily believe that there aren't two killing parties - they could have easily hit the same target during N1, or their could be some other funny business going on (Hider, gambit). Second, I don't like the way that a few people quickly tried to jump on the Tracker wagon after only one person died last night. Yourself (hoopla) included with this "Well how does that bode for him?" crap and then flip-flopping back to "I believe it 95%". Finally, the AtE, while I don't like it, I've come to find more and more it's a townie thing as opposed to a scum thing.

---

The meat of hito's #340 is brilliance, and something everyone should take note of.

*Gives hito a cookie*