Mini 889 - Shopping Frenzy (Over)

[nhammen]

Vote Count

Adel (1): don_johnson

Not voting (4): Adel, Debonair Danny DiPietro, julienvonwolfe, muh316

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

note the passive ability of a Gunsmith investigation modifier.

D_J forgot to fakeclaim that part.

Already did last night when you were pushing for a claim of any other passive ability.

I'm trying to think if there's a way to break the setup, but if so I'm not coming up with it. I'll keep thinking on this issue, but please don't anyone speculate on this topic unless you've think you've got an absolutely perfect setup though.

[don_johnson]

sorry adel. i don't have that in my pm. messaged mod to see why.

unvote

missed the non movement. need to reevaluate ddd and muh. still solid on jvw.

[muh316]

Im sorry guys i wont be posting much because i broke my right arm and i have cast and a sling on so i cant type allot. if u want me replaced u could but if u dont mimd ill be a little less active.

i protected liam because i didnt have any case on him nor did i find him suspicious.. Adel because i didnt find him as suspicious as others. thats all ii can wrie ask me any questions and ill try to answer

[Adel]

Im sorry guys i wont be posting much because i broke my right arm and i have cast and a sling on so i cant type allot. if u want me replaced u could but if u dont mimd ill be a little less active.

I don't have a problem with you being inactive so long as you do one thing for us. Please have someone write "muh316" on your cast, take a picture of it, and post that picture in this thread. That way we will know that you aren't lying.

Thanks!

[don_johnson]

^^ now that's funny!

i am going to reevaluate jvw as well at this point. i didn't realize his claim was straight from the "samples". i see i have a new message. checking now.

[don_johnson]

not from mod.

my guess is that there is an error. gunsmith does not exist in this game, so it may have possibly been in the samples due to the possibility of the role existing. this would depend on if mod assigned and chose roles randomly which is my guess. if we base speculation on the role pms, then we should also note the existence of a 3 player mafia team, which makes a serial killer less likely. a 3 player mafia squad with a confirmed roleblocker may offset two macho docs, a bulletproof vig, and a motion detector, but the possibility exists for one of muh/jvw to be scum, or scum power. i need to dwell on this set-up a bit. i would like more thoughts from ddd in this regard. if we ignore sample pms(which may make the most sense), then we could be faced with one of many combinations. there are scum powers that rival motion detectors. check back later.

[muh316]

Im sorry guys i wont be posting much because i broke my right arm and i have cast and a sling on so i cant type allot. if u want me replaced u could but if u dont mimd ill be a little less active.

I don't have a problem with you being inactive so long as you do one thing for us. Please have someone write "muh316" on your cast, take a picture of it, and post that picture in this thread. That way we will know that you aren't lying.

Thanks!

here u can see the sling but not my cast
http://i45.tinypic.com/2vcf3o4.jpg

[Adel]

then we should also note the existence of a 3 player mafia team, which makes a serial killer less likely.

Once again I throw my BS flag for one of your posts.

Why do you think that a 3 man scum group in a 12 player game makes a sk less likely?

3 (mafia) vs 1 (sk) vs 8 (town) is very common in 12 player games.

[Adel]

Im sorry guys i wont be posting much because i broke my right arm and i have cast and a sling on so i cant type allot. if u want me replaced u could but if u dont mimd ill be a little less active.

i protected liam because i didnt have any case on him nor did i find him suspicious.. Adel because i didnt find him as suspicious as others. thats all ii can wrie ask me any questions and ill try to answer

I don't understand how you thought that DJ was the least scummy on N1 if you didn't know that he had claimed bullet proof.

How is it that you didn't know that DJ claim "bulletproof"?

I don't understand how you thought that Liam was the least scummy the same night that DJ thought that Liam was the most scummy.

[Adel]

^^ this is terrible. Adel's next.

someone hammer this home.

What do you mean by these two things? You seem to think Adel's vote is scummy, but you also want someone to hammer?

the logic is terrible. using a mod post to determine your vote is heinous.

also: Adel is scummy regardless of the flip. ABR wants out, a replacement is more work for the mod regardless of alignment. grant the wish. if he's scum, great, if he's not then Adel is 100%.

why did you kill laim instead of me?

[Adel]

as far as i'm concerned jvw and myself are obvtown.

what made you think that jvw was obviously town?

Why don't you think that he is obviously town anymore?

[don_johnson]

Why do you think that a 3 man scum group in a 12 player game makes a sk less likely?

games i have been in with sk are usually 2 mafia/1 sk. either way, i don't believe sk exists in this set up.

why did you kill laim instead of me?

it was kind of a toss up. liam seemed much more determined for my lynch, which was the same behavior josh exhibited.

what made you think that jvw was obviously town?

Why don't you think that he is obviously town anymore?

i already answered the first question. at this point i am reevaluating. i thought you were the last scum. his evidence supports that you are not. his claim is more questionable given our recent discussion.

[Adel]

Why do you think that a 3 man scum group in a 12 player game makes a sk less likely?

games i have been in with sk are usually 2 mafia/1 sk. either way, i don't believe sk exists in this set up.

links, for real.

[julienvonwolfe]

Erm, my role doesn't clear Adel. It only tells me if the person I targeted targeted a person with an ability. DJ claimed Liam's kill, and Adel doesn't seem to dispute this. Therefore, if Adel were mafia, she must have targeted semioldguy, who was a vanilla townie and had no abilities. This would have returned 'no motion'.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Erm, my role doesn't clear Adel. It only tells me if the person I targeted targeted a person with an ability. DJ claimed Liam's kill, and Adel doesn't seem to dispute this. Therefore, if Adel were mafia, she must have targeted semioldguy, who was a vanilla townie and had no abilities. This would have returned 'no motion'.

You're almost certainly reading the PM wrong though I'll grant that it's not as clear as it should be.

"If $Target targeted a player with an ability" - almost certainly the "with an ability" refers back to the targeting and not as a modifier of the second player.

@Mod: Please confirm the above is the correct interpretation

[Adel]

Why do you think that a 3 man scum group in a 12 player game makes a sk less likely?

games i have been in with sk are usually 2 mafia/1 sk. either way, i don't believe sk exists in this set up.

links, for real.

like, which of these mini games that you apparently were in had 2 mafia and 1 sk?

Minis: 859, 858, 850, 845, 830, 829, 819, 808, 802, 783, 745, 737,

a place you can look to check easily: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9460

[don_johnson]

i was a serial killer in game from another site. two man mafia in that one. i was in a game on this site modded by juls which had two mafia and a roleblocking serial killer. also, mini 811. not sure why you are so insistent upon things like this. am i not entitled to my opinion? i have been on this site for over a year with 30 + completed games. i don't recall every game i have played. again, you seem to enjoy working off of grand assumptions. do you have any "in thread" evidence to suggest that i am scum?

howes about you ask the other players their opinions on the matter? then have them link to games that prove that their "opinions" are correct. your investigation here is unilateral.

to all: in your personal experience, in games(12 player) with an sk, is mafia more or less likely to be three or two man teams(one is a confirmed roleblocker)? is my previous statement of my opinion unreasonable?

i would also like mod confirmation of "motion detector".

also, adel, thanks for the link. internal struggle mafia is a game where i suffered confirmation bias with zachrulez, pushed a lynch on the town vig, and lost in lylo voting with my "gut". that game also contained a mafia "ninja" which i believe is a role that trumps motion detector. no sk there. more later.

[nhammen]

You're almost certainly reading the PM wrong though I'll grant that it's not as clear as it should be.

"If $Target targeted a player with an ability" - almost certainly the "with an ability" refers back to the targeting and not as a modifier of the second player.

@Mod: Please confirm the above is the correct interpretation

Your interpretation is correct. JVWs is not. Sorry for any misunderstanding.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

In terms of my experience the one game I've played as a serial killer had three mafia. Personally I believe this to be better balanced because of the possibility of the SK killing mafia, though it requires the SK to be given abilities beyond a kill. I've heard others say that 2 mafia/1 SK is more common or better balanced, but I'm not sure where this belief comes from, but it's certainly repeated if not true.

[Adel]

what I had time to look up tonight:

859:
858
850
845
830
829: 3 mafia (watcher, goon, ninja), vig, two shot doctor(DJ), tracker, roleblocker, 5 townie -- according to http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9460
819:
808
802:

3 mafia

(2 goon, 1 rolecop),

1 sk

( arsonist bus driver, kills by fire and is a busdriver), cop, firefighter (protects against fire), doctor, JOAT, 4 townie (DJ) -- according to http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 82#1780482
783
745:

3 mafia

(2 goon and DJ was a mafia roleblocker see their quuicktopic at http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/QZBwYqQsCuvZk ),

1 sk

, cop, doc, 6 townies -- according to http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
737

[don_johnson]

I've heard others say that 2 mafia/1 SK is more common or better balanced, but I'm not sure where this belief comes from, but it's certainly repeated if not true.

^^ this.

adel: you are only looking at games i am in. not games i have read. you really seem to enjoy wasting everyones time. if you think i am sk then make a case. spamming the thread with links helps noone.

[Adel]

who is confirmed town right now?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

And given that fact here are the relevant facts...

Don has claimed credit for the Liam kill. No one has counterclaimed the kill and thus we can conclude that Don is responsible for it. The only question is whether or not he is a vig as he naturally claims or is he is a SK.

Adel is effectively confirmed town. There might be some backdoor methods where this isn't true, but they have such low probability that they verge on the completely improbable. Either JVW is mafia and this is the last mafioso or JVW is town in which case we know that Adel did not make the kill last night. Since someone did make the kill he is obviously innocent.

~~~

I think the best play is to make sure we don't end up in a case where a no lynch becomes the optimal play or at least a consideration and that means we have to lynch Don. I actually don't think Don is the SK, I'm somewhere around 75% sure he actually is a vig, but that's still too large of a percentage to risk having him around. This is also tempered by the fact that we can essentially put confirmed town Adel into LYLO which gives us worst case a 50/50 proposition and considering the shiny titles above his name hopefully that percentage is much higher.

Thus my plan is as follows:
Lynch DJ (to eliminate the possibility of a SK and a 1/1/1 sortof~LYLO)
Muh protects Adel (so that even if Muh is scum he cannot kill Adel and if he actually is a doc then he actually protects Adel)
JVW motion detects ??? (This is actually pretty irrelevant given that we're assuming town Adel makes it to LYLO, which means if JVW makes LYLO then he's going to say the other person is scum regardless of JVW's alignment and have a result to back that up or no results)

I expect Don to vote me because of this because acting irrationally is what he does, but I'd like everyone else's thoughts on the matter.

[Adel]

i was a serial killer in game from another site. two man mafia in that one. i was in a game on this site modded by juls which had two mafia and a roleblocking serial killer. also, mini 811..

links or it didn't happen.