Mini 909: Nice'n'Fun Mafia (Game Over)

[angelmouse]

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'. By sheer probabilities alone, any random 5 players will more likely than not contain one scum member. This is a policy based wagon. If Quagmire is indeed town, I'd expect scum to go the other way, and not add fuel to the fire, maybe even try to condemn it and gain town points. Is my guesswork good too?

This isn't "guesswork" it is my firm belief, my reasoning is posted before. Only scum have the information that Quagmire doesn't and i firmly believe that they would use it to their advantage. If they aren't, well they are playing a bad game and deserve to lose and quickly. Yes they could go the other way and not support it, but they would have to be certain that the quagmire lynch would happen without the vote(s) and not everyone in this game agrees with policy lynches so by 'sheer probabilities alone' there must be scum on that wagon whether he is town or not. Actually whatever quagmire role, for scum he is a good lynch target today as it gives the town little to no info on day 2 and if he turns scum, yes they have lost a partner but they can say "woohoo look at my scum hunting skills" and if he turns town they can say "well his play deserved it and it was a policy lynch".

Just because i don't agree with you doesn't make my feelings and reasoning behind the game "guesswork".

@Red: the reason i didn't vote someone on the quagmire wagon is that i am not convinced on which one it is. After posting last time i did have a chance to re-read some of the game and think about changing some of my positions on players and will def be taking into account where peoples vote lie at this point in time.

[Cruciare]

Deadline is in about 3 days and 9 hours. If there is no majority at deadline, no-one will be lynched.

Vote Count

Quagmire (5)

hitogoroshi, Hoopla, Cyberbob, cruelty, AGar

The Tracker (3)

Nachomamma8, angelmouse, Flareonage

hitogoroshi (1)

Mindgamer

Flareonage (1)

RedCoyote

Cyberbob (1)

Quagmire

Not Voting (1)

The Tracker

With twelve alive, it takes seven to guillotine.

[Hoopla]

This isn't "guesswork" it is my firm belief, my reasoning is posted before. Only scum have the information that Quagmire doesn't and i firmly believe that they would use it to their advantage. If they aren't, well they are playing a bad game and deserve to lose and quickly. Yes they could go the other way and not support it, but they would have to be certain that the quagmire lynch would happen without the vote(s) and not everyone in this game agrees with policy lynches so by 'sheer probabilities alone' there must be scum on that wagon whether he is town or not. Actually whatever quagmire role, for scum he is a good lynch target today as it gives the town little to no info on day 2 and if he turns scum, yes they have lost a partner but they can say "woohoo look at my scum hunting skills" and if he turns town they can say "well his play deserved it and it was a policy lynch".

Just because i don't agree with you doesn't make my feelings and reasoning behind the game "guesswork".

Quagmire is likely to be lynched at some point - it may not necessarily be Day 1, but condemning the lynch or staying off it could be just as fine of a scum tactic as pushing it. There has been enough (almost half) of the town that have expressed distaste in Quagmires play and an extra couple who would probably join the wagon. Scum have options in their stances even if you think one way is the only possibility.

I completely disagree about the value of his lynch, too. The beauty of this event means that every player has posted an opinion, argued, defended and reacted to Quagmire's claim. Very rarely in mafia do you get a constanst variable to compare information on. Usually you're comparing apples to oranges (ie; is X's defense on Y more scummy than Z's role claim or J's buddying with K). This is where human error and scum manipulation kick in.

Because we have had the whole town talking about the same event it means Quamire's flip is very important, as every player has ties with him (even if he has no ties to them).

[Hoopla]

@Red: the reason i didn't vote someone on the quagmire wagon is that i am not convinced on which one it is. After posting last time i did have a chance to re-read some of the game and think about changing some of my positions on players and will def be taking into account where peoples vote lie at this point in time.

Which is likelier, one, two, three scum on Quagmire's wagon?

[RedCoyote]

I'd suggest that a Quagmire lynch is now quite informative of other player's alignments regardless of what he flips.

This is true; I'm not going to deny this other than to say that the same argument could be made for The Tracker as well.

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'.

Well, technically speaking, the entire game is guesswork short of an open game or possibly a confirmed investigation. Are you trying to say that, despite it being likely that there is a scum on the Quagmire wagon, it's useless to try and figure out who it is? Explain why this statement puts you off, because I think it's something that needs to be said to a group of people who may or may not be letting their mafia philosophies cloud their scumhunting.

---

I see very little posting trying to convince us otherwise with actual cases.

Here.

If Flare posted more, I'd be more inclined to evolve my opinion on him, be it positive or negative. He has seemed to have slowed down somewhat.

If anything, lynching someone who changes their mind whimsically will keep them from making a rash decision at the wrong time. Assuming he's town that is. Still, no one has been really willing to come to bat for him. Quagmire and Hoopla has expressed support of him, but without anything to really say about the matter.

---

Additionally, if Mindgamer doesn't post

today

, I'd ask the

Mod

to be ready to replace. We already have very little time left until the deadline, and given, well, life, people aren't going to always remember their commitments to the game. I hope Mindgamer comes back today ready to go, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

[RedCoyote]

I also want to point out that lynching the lead wagon for the sake of "information" is almost always a valid argument due to the fact that 5 person bandwagons don't just happen. Even on the rare occasions that they do, they are quickly, and rightfully, scrutinized.

In other words, to say Quagmire is a good lynch because everyone has given opinion is somewhat misleading, because I dread the day I get stuck in a town where people don't care enough to comment on the highest vote getter at any given time.

[Hoopla]

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'.

Well, technically speaking, the entire game is guesswork short of an open game or possibly a confirmed investigation. Are you trying to say that, despite it being likely that there is a scum on the Quagmire wagon, it's useless to try and figure out who it is? Explain why this statement puts you off, because I think it's something that needs to be said to a group of people who may or may not be letting their mafia philosophies cloud their scumhunting.

Of course - but her guesswork is inconsistent with where her vote lies, and irrelevant if she only thinks there is one scum on the wagon (as there is a better chance of scum being off it ). If she thinks there are multiple scum on the wagon she should be taking the 2/3 in 5 chance and placing her vote there, rather than taking the 0/1 in 6 chance.

It's silly.

[Flareonage]

I'm still not good at this discussion thing. Every time I try I fail miserably and everyone calls me an idiot. It doesn't exactly motivate me to try harder.

I just really don't like this Quagmire thing. it's a smokescreen, distracting us from scum hunting. Everyone who is voting for Quagmire hasn't really been scum hunting. They just want Quagmire gone because of his playing style. There may be some truth to what they are saying but scum could easily be using that situation to their advantage.

If Quagmire was scum then maybe his partner is one of the pissed off people. I know I would be if I found out my partner hasn't read his role PM

[Cyberbob]

Everyone who is voting for Quagmire hasn't really been scum hunting. They just want Quagmire gone because of his playing style.

Be careful about using things like the word "everyone". I can't remember off the top of my head whether anyone else has been looking at people other than Quag but I certainly have been.

There may be some truth to what they are saying but scum could easily be using that situation to their advantage.

If Quagmire was scum then maybe his partner is one of the pissed off people. I know I would be if I found out my partner hasn't read his role PM

a) Scum

always

use a situation to their advantage whether it's one of their buddies in the firing line or whether it's a townie.
b) Yeah, maybe, or maybe all of his buddies are avoiding the wagon and lambasting all the people on it. You need to look at both sides of the coin if you want people to take your final position seriously.

[Cyberbob]

Also RedCoyote's defence of Flare is noted.

[Cruciare]

Additionally, if Mindgamer doesn't post

today

, I'd ask the

Mod

to be ready to replace. We already have very little time left until the deadline, and given, well, life, people aren't going to always remember their commitments to the game. I hope Mindgamer comes back today ready to go, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

If it comes to that, I would prefer just extending the deadline TBH.

[cruelty]

I just really don't like this Quagmire thing. it's a smokescreen, distracting us from scum hunting. Everyone who is voting for Quagmire hasn't really been scum hunting. They just want Quagmire gone because of his playing style. There may be some truth to what they are saying but scum could easily be using that situation to their advantage.

Ok you know what? You're doing the exact same thing. All of your recent posts have been about Quagmire and how we need to focus on something else. Yet strangely, you haven't done a single thing except harp on about this. I get it, it's a smokescreen. It is NOT a scum-created smokescreen though - if Quag really hasn't opened his role pm then we can conclude that this isn't a scum gambit. So I think that it's a valid discussion; we can be relatively sure that scum are trying to play this situation to their advantage which will in all likelihood be illuminating further down the road. Anyway.


The exception (to the rule of your current posts = handwringing re. Quagmire) is your Tracker vote. Which, to be honest, I don't think much of. It amounts to nothing more than a pressure vote. And that post is still generally re. Quagmire.

Quick quote summary. (#s in iso).

NOTE: These quotes aren't meant to point to anything other than a continued and unwavering interest in Quag despite implying otherwise.

Vote: quagmire

You're right we should discuss this a little.

Now that I think about it it doesn't deserve a policy lynch.

There's really no way not opening his PM could hurt him

Where's all the real scum hunting? We have pages of why Quagmire should be executed.

This Quagmire thing is wasting our time.

I just really don't like this Quagmire thing. it's a smokescreen,

If it's such a big smokescreen, redirect our attention. It's good and well to claim it's a smokescreen, a distraction, but ultimately you're not actually contributing at all by continually referencing it. I'm beginning to wonder if you're breadcrumbing distaste for this lynch to point to tomorrow.

[Flareonage]

I'm having difficulty who to accuse on the Quagmire wagon. Cyberbob is right scum abuse every situation but this is different. Scum lie, in this case I believe they are all telling the truth when they express their dislike in the Quagmire situation. That's why it's hard for me to find scumtells

[Mindgamer]

I'm back.

Since a lot of posts have been made since my departure, I will only comment on the main debates for now. If you want to ask me questions or want my opinion on something, please say so and I will reply to you.

First, I still think The Tracker was joking. If he was not joking, I am obvscum according to his logic.

Vote: Mindgamer.

Bandwagoning for early mislynch, making him obvscum.

Calling it a joke or whatever is wrong.

The fact that The Tracker denies that he was joking under pressure, makes me very suspicious of him. I would expect a townie to just shake the comments off, but The Tracker bows to the crowd by saying he was not joking. The sentence is a joke, there is no way around it. The Tracker, tell me, were you joking or not when you called me obvscum?

Second, the Quagmire debate.
I despise his tactic. If everyone were to use his tactic, the game would become unplayable. I would vote for him to show my disgust, but I won't since my vote would bring him to L-1, which is too close to a lynch. Lynching annoying players is not part of my win condition, so I don't want Quagmire to be lynched. I suggest the other players on the wagon think about this too. If you are really troubled by Quagmire's attitude, just deal with it this game and remember to not enter a game with Quagmire again.

No one can know what Quagmire's alignment is, except for scumbuddies in case Quagmire is scum. That is why defending Quagmire is suspicious (why would anyone be defending such a gamebreaking strategy?). Note that I myself am not defending what Quagmire is doing, I'm saying that lynching for the purpose of losing an annoying person is not in the town's favour.

if it's his playstyle, it's his play style. There are far far worse play styles out there and he is now contributing.

I'm happy that someone tries to stop the lynch on Quagmire, but why would you go as far as actually defending his playstyle directly? A bit over enthusiastic scumbuddy perhaps? It's not much, but I feel comfortable having my vote on you for the moment.

Unvote. Vote: Angelmouse

[The Tracker]

A Mindgamer, 'twould be nice if you paid attention to my post. I meant calling the word 'mislynch' a joke is wrong. I misspoke when I used that specific word. The post itself was a RVS joke. Hopefully this is the last time I have to explain it.

I think what angel is more saying is we can't do anything about it. It certainly doesn't look to me like she's defending his playstyle, just expressing that we can't force him to read his role.

[angelmouse]

@minder: I'm not defending his play style, certainly not, and I don't think it's a good tactic at all. That said, it seems to be his play style so what more can we say other than it sucks and live with it? I know I would have sneaked a peak at some point, maybe he has and kept quiet about it??

[angelmouse]

Of course - but her guesswork is inconsistent with where her vote lies, and irrelevant if she only thinks there is one scum on the wagon (as there is a better chance of scum being off it ). If she thinks there are multiple scum on the wagon she should be taking the 2/3 in 5 chance and placing her vote there, rather than taking the 0/1 in 6 chance.

It's silly.

I have no idea how many scum are in the game, do you?? I think there is scum on the wagon, but who is a different question. At the time I voted there was little in the way of chat other than the quagmire lynch so finding suspicious material between all the main players on the lynch is difficult. I found trackers sudden inactivety and hiding behind the quag chat suspicious, hence the vote. I don't gamble in life, why do it with my vote either?

Ok so I didn't realise the deadline was so close and the only highly debated thing quags non read of role. We have to come to a consensus and quick. I'm reluctant with a quagmire lynch as there is nothing more than his play style to lynch him for and I don't like that, but I also dislike a no lynch on day 1. Anybody elses thoughts?

[hitogoroshi]

@minder: I'm not defending his play style, certainly not, and I don't think it's a good tactic at all. That said, it seems to be his play style so what more can we say other than it sucks and live with it?

This point has come up many times but your post makes it the clearest so I'm going to quote it.

I wrote a big rant here defending my vote on Quagmire but I deleted it because reading my thoughts written down made me realize something. My vote on Quagmire is basicially vengeance; he's decided to give himself an advantage at our expense and pass it off as good for everyone, and the idea of him taking advantage of us pisses me off so much that I want him dead. But that isn't a fair reason to lynch someone. His style is anti-town, yes, but if I step back from the anger there are people more anti-town than him, especially since he will have read his PM d2.

I'm never playing a game with Quagmire again unless he's forced to read his role PM. But in the mean time, I can swallow my bile (and boy, is there a lot of bile) and pick someone who's more of a detriment to the town. To anyone who's voting Quagmire and is currently angry at him - I'd encourage you to do a bit of introspection. Just because you want to murder him in real life doesn't mean it's a good idea to do it in the game.

If we're looking for good lynch targets (remember folks, three days or so until deadline) the big names are flare and tracker. Cruelty 236 makes a good point that flare is talking a lot about the Quag wagon distracting us from discussion while simultaneously not discussing anything else. Tracker, conversely, only seems to be interested in posting in his own defense and not at all pro-actively. Both of them, in short, are lumps with no real input on the bandwagons/day's proceedings. Since we're close to deadline, I'll

unvote, vote: The Tracker

.

If the flare wagon becomes viable I'd be willing to help it along, and obviously I'd prefer a Quagmire lynch to a no-lynch (I mean, how tolerant do you want me to be?). But it looks like we could make a Tracker wagon happen and I'm willing to admit that he's contributing less than Quagmire right now.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, your buddying and defense of the tactic reeks of bad play.

Buddying because I'm not on the wagon, okay. But where have I defended the tactic?

Because he's defending the issue until he's blue in the face.

That's horrible reasoning. There are people who are pursuing the issue just as much as I'm defending it.

Tracker, you've officially failed to give an opinion on ANYONE. You're also the only person to not've placed an actual vote yet. Can you rectify this for us?

[The Tracker]

Okay, before I start in on my stuff, I have one question for you that you haven't answered yet Nacho. You said earlier on you believe I'm a fan of disclaimer language. Please tell me what you mean by that.

Now for my stuff. I'm just going to weigh in on the specific stuff.

Quagmire: I do not like his play, but right now there's nothing for it. I agree with the idea to wait until the next day and see how his playing changes.

Hoopla's claim: Not a fan, but I'm more or less convinced by other players that right now there's no point pursuing that angle as of now.

Now for the main point: Flareonage. Not a fan. Reading through the thread again, I found that Flareon began the game with some lovely wishy-washy voting. Changed votes around a lot and kept his random vote at one point for a bit after changing back to it. He explained it as he doesn't like to not use his vote, but it just comes off as wishy-washy to me. Then he starts complaining about how Quagmire's playing (or lack thereof) is smokescreening without doing anything to change that problem. That looks a bit to me like he's trying to steer a new lynch without actually doing it. Possible scumpals with Quag? Maybe.

vote:Flareonage

[Quagmire]

In theory, that's correct. However, in reality, I'm the only one playing like this, aren't I?

Although that last sentence is false. PBPAs are a quick counterexample I can think of off the top of my head, if you're not convinced about my strategy.

Since you know more people doing it would be bad, why wouldn't you just keep it to yourself that you're playing this way? You could get your special advantage without the risk of being policy lynched (which probably outweighs any slight benefits). You then also reduce the risk of other players playing this way.

I was planning on it, until you asked.

[Quagmire]

For all these people that agree lynching Quagmire is a bad idea on D1, I see very little posting trying to convince us otherwise with actual cases. You're not helping the situation by just opposing it, you're just looking lazy.

I see very little posting trying to convince anyone otherwise with actual cases. I've shot down every "case" that tries to belittle the way I play.

[Quagmire]

This isn't "guesswork" it is my firm belief, my reasoning is posted before. Only scum have the information that Quagmire doesn't and i firmly believe that they would use it to their advantage. If they aren't, well they are playing a bad game and deserve to lose and quickly. Yes they could go the other way and not support it, but they would have to be certain that the quagmire lynch would happen without the vote(s) and not everyone in this game agrees with policy lynches so by 'sheer probabilities alone' there must be scum on that wagon whether he is town or not. Actually whatever quagmire role, for scum he is a good lynch target today as it gives the town little to no info on day 2 and if he turns scum, yes they have lost a partner but they can say "woohoo look at my scum hunting skills" and if he turns town they can say "well his play deserved it and it was a policy lynch".

Just because i don't agree with you doesn't make my feelings and reasoning behind the game "guesswork".

Quagmire is likely to be lynched at some point - it may not necessarily be Day 1, but condemning the lynch or staying off it could be just as fine of a scum tactic as pushing it. There has been enough (almost half) of the town that have expressed distaste in Quagmires play and an extra couple who would probably join the wagon. Scum have options in their stances even if you think one way is the only possibility.

I completely disagree about the value of his lynch, too. The beauty of this event means that every player has posted an opinion, argued, defended and reacted to Quagmire's claim. Very rarely in mafia do you get a constanst variable to compare information on. Usually you're comparing apples to oranges (ie; is X's defense on Y more scummy than Z's role claim or J's buddying with K). This is where human error and scum manipulation kick in.

Because we have had the whole town talking about the same event it means Quamire's flip is very important, as every player has ties with him (even if he has no ties to them).

And how will you determine who's town and scum based off of it? "He supported Quagmire's lynch blindly, but he's good -- but he supported Quagmire's lynch not blindly, so he's bad!"

This is nothing more than a lynch based on theory, which is the worst kind of lynch.

[Quagmire]

That was worded badly. My point was that one singular opinion based off of one singular variable (i.e. "everybody had an opinion on Quagmire, ergo we now have good lynch material") is really silly and a very anti-town way to look at the game.

[Quagmire]

@minder: I'm not defending his play style, certainly not, and I don't think it's a good tactic at all. That said, it seems to be his play style so what more can we say other than it sucks and live with it?

This point has come up many times but your post makes it the clearest so I'm going to quote it.

I wrote a big rant here defending my vote on Quagmire but I deleted it because reading my thoughts written down made me realize something. My vote on Quagmire is basicially vengeance; he's decided to give himself an advantage at our expense and pass it off as good for everyone, and the idea of him taking advantage of us pisses me off so much that I want him dead. But that isn't a fair reason to lynch someone. His style is anti-town, yes, but if I step back from the anger there are people more anti-town than him, especially since he will have read his PM d2.

I'm never playing a game with Quagmire again unless he's forced to read his role PM. But in the mean time, I can swallow my bile (and boy, is there a lot of bile) and pick someone who's more of a detriment to the town. To anyone who's voting Quagmire and is currently angry at him - I'd encourage you to do a bit of introspection. Just because you want to murder him in real life doesn't mean it's a good idea to do it in the game.

If we're looking for good lynch targets (remember folks, three days or so until deadline) the big names are flare and tracker. Cruelty 236 makes a good point that flare is talking a lot about the Quag wagon distracting us from discussion while simultaneously not discussing anything else. Tracker, conversely, only seems to be interested in posting in his own defense and not at all pro-actively. Both of them, in short, are lumps with no real input on the bandwagons/day's proceedings. Since we're close to deadline, I'll

unvote, vote: The Tracker

.

If the flare wagon becomes viable I'd be willing to help it along, and obviously I'd prefer a Quagmire lynch to a no-lynch (I mean, how tolerant do you want me to be?). But it looks like we could make a Tracker wagon happen and I'm willing to admit that he's contributing less than Quagmire right now.

GRR!!!! I, TOO, GET ANGRY ON THE INTERNET OVER A GAME!!!!