Mini 909: Nice'n'Fun Mafia (Game Over)

[RedCoyote]

/confirm

I'm excited; this game looks like it is going to be great!

[RedCoyote]

I'm convinced.

prevote: hitogoroshi

for using mother nature to help his scumlurking.

[RedCoyote]

What goes in to everyone's decisions when they decide on their Day 1 lynch candidate?

I'm always looking for things that are off, but during the first day I am generally open to policy lynches and lynching players who are accepted as anti-town rather than necessarily scummy.

---

surely it was a joke. We're only on page two, game barely started and with 12 players it's hardly a lynch situation.

Jumping the gun a bit and voting on it?? Strange play

fos, cot.cathartic

This seems... off. This seems borderline defensive of The Tracker rather than just a general disagreement.

Like, I would've thought nothing of this post if it was just the first two sentences, but the last part of the post sticks out to me. It's one thing for angel and the Colonel have completely different early game philosophies, but to speak for The Tracker like angel is doing here could point to treesaw defending or possibly buddying?

angel, if not for something he suspects, what else would you rather the Colonel vote on?

---

Mislynch was the wrong word. I merely meant lynch. It was an RVS vote, nothing more. Calm down.

This sounds defensive, too. Maybe The Tracker is just beating his chest a little bit, but I don't know if he's in the position to do so. That said, forcefulness != scuminess.

---

Surely The Tracker would be careful not to make such a stupid mistake in his first post. It's a joke, pay attention to behaviour that is worth discussing.

This is unabashedly defensive and definitely dismissal. What behavior is more worth discussing than this? Back up your claim.

---

RedCoyote; what is the most effective scumtell/towntell you've discovered in your time at mafiascum?

If I can find them, I try to look for unlikely, illogical instances and circumstances. People voting someone out of the blue when they've had nothing to say about them, people on lynches when, after the fact, everyone else surrounding them on the lynch comes up town, double speak, etc.

Aggressiveness, rightfully or not, usually looks townie to me. As long as the player isn't being irrational or illogical when doing it like I mentioned above.

[RedCoyote]

Well, about everything else I'd say. Please tell me why you think a joke, in particular one in RVS, can be a strong scumtell.

Everything else? So nothing done during the RVS can be scummy? I don't understand; Can you provide me with specific behavior that was more worth discussing?

I never said anything about a "strong scumtell", and The Tracker himself has said calling the comment a joke is inaccurate. I'm less concerned with The Tracker or what he said and more concerned with you and angel coming to bat for him.

---

surely it was a joke.

i just read it as a joke

I think mislynch is the wrong word and a slip up, but is a scum slip up, I don't know yet, more time required to work that out

This sounds to me like you are covering all your bases and backpedaling a bit.

[RedCoyote]

I'm used to games moving quicker than this. I don't think there is a heavy poster in the lot of us.

Flareon & Quagmire, y'all really have nothing to add right now?

I'll go ahead and

unvote

now.

[RedCoyote]

I'm not what you would class as a heavy poster, but I do dislike a game slowing down and discussion dying as it allows time to pass till the deadline. I have little to nothing to say since my last post though.

It was more an observation that a criticism. I'm not a heavy poster either, I just don't think I've ever been in a game where the page count wasn't, like, ten by now.

---

That's what you should do if you want to start a serious discussion, not attacking a RVS joke.

That's a fair answer. I disagree with you, you know, technically, because I don't think you necessarily have to have a defined moment where it's like, "Okay everyone, we are now officially out of the RVS". Goofing around is what pre-game and post-game is for, imo.

---

Yeah, I think a lot of people here are normally heavy posters but it's hard to be one when none of our initial leads seemed to stick and we're more or less back at square one.

Well, you can speak for yourself there. I think I got some good stuff off of multiple people, and I'm anxious to see how it pans out as the game unfolds.

But, again, the heavy poster thing wasn't a criticism. It's just a little unusual. You and Hoopla are the only two here that I've played together with so far, and although I know both me and you aren't particularly post heavy (based on the little meta I have of you), Hoopla seems a little quiet (based on the little meta I have of her).

---

So you're saying I should begin suspecting people just because someone else said they are suspicious?

I don't see how you got that. hito seems to be saying, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, that Quagmire is a good wagon because of his stubborn lack of contribution, despite posting three times.

Good point but I'm not gonna go attack someone cuz then someone will attack me for attacking someone

This sounds way too self-interested to me. In other words, "I don't want to give my opinion in case someone attacks me for it. I'll just let the other people in the game dictate my presence."

[RedCoyote]

And the reasoning for the Quagmire wagon also applies to me

If it does, are you satisfied with that?

---

It seems like you understand why I voted Quagmire, RC, so why aren't you joining me?

Well, you know, I've been sitting here for about five minutes trying to give you an answer, and I don't think I can give you a good, townie answer as my name heads up the "Not Voting" row.

So consider your teary-eyed pitch a success; I'll

vote: Quagmire

.

Now turn that frown upside-down!

---

VOTE: The Tracker

Switching back to what it was before I changed

Why? Hoopla asked this, and I'm asking too. I'm not going to lead you in either direction as to whether I think it's good or bad, but just explain your logic behind putting your vote back on The Tracker.

---

is significantly more damaging (despite being less likely) if I get investigated, waste the Day 2 lynch

and

out a powerful town role

I can't really argue with this. I think Hoopla made a thoughtful decision, and so far the claim is believable for me.

[RedCoyote]

I still don't have much to add... the wagon building on me is silly but probably necessary, I don't have any solid enough scum reads yet, and only two people read town to me so far. I believe I've commented on everything else.

I don't feel as though it's your role to observe the game, but to play it along side us. It's probably sounding a bit like a broken record, but none of us here need to lecture you about the necessity of participation. I'm especially curious to hear you ask questions and provoke other players, not just pop up and say, "have I commented on everything? k, l8r."

Your post 112 is a good example of what I don't want to see. The basis of the question is terrific, but it's asked from a position of weakness and nonchalance. What I mean by that is, like, okay, you spent two seconds looking at the latest vote count, but why not go deeper with it? Why not go back to Flare's latest post, Cyberbob, or Nacho, and ask them about the post with which they voted? If you think the reasoning is weak (you've said it yourself that you've seen nothing scummy so far), maybe you should tell them why it is they're getting overly excited. I'd be happy to see Quagmire v.s. cruelty over The Tracker wagon.

Again, I don't want to come across as patronizing, because I know you're aware of all of this. I honestly just want to see you play the game with us. I feel completely shortchanged at this point.

---

I was gonna say that it doesn't apply since everyone disagreed with the person that posted it and then I noticed it was Quagmire. Your question is completely valid now

To be perfectly honest, even at the risk of catching flak for my opinion, I don't particularly care whether or not he has. I personally wouldn't play a game that way, but I see the strategy behind it as well. [WIFOM]I think I would care more about it if I was scum, because I would be worried if he were my partner and there may or may not have been someone missing from a QT that may or may not have been available to us before the game started and/or during the day.[/WIFOM] Either way, this would neither encourage nor discourage any vote, policy or not, I would cast for Quagmire.

It is a random vote. I just think that having a vote is better then not voting. Check all the games I've been in and you'll see that I've never unvoted without revoting for someone else.

That's a valid strategy, but there's something seriously amiss here. First of all, you're either skimming the thread, which is bad, or you're ignoring us, which is worse. Both me and Hoopla asked you, and then hito reminds you, before you finally answer. I don't even think it's that great of an answer to be honest. You say it's part of your meta, a strategy to keep a vote active at all times, which is fine, but not when you're keeping your vote on a "random" person. So, secondly, you're skirting responsibility for your vote. When you say that The Tracker is your "random" vote, this implies that you don't want to be held accountable for it, and that you're excused from casting a vote based on your real suspicions. That just ain't going to fly with me, pal. Lastly, this shirking of responsibility is dangerous when your general philosophy of playing is,

• I'm not gonna go attack someone cuz then someone will attack me for attacking someone

If you're going to stick to the "always vote someone" strategy, then you need to make it count. Don't come back at us with, "I have to always vote someone", and then call your vote random. It doesn't work that way at this stage of the game, and especially not when your "random vote" happens to be on the largest wagon. Unless I am overestimating you, you are playing some serious misdirecting and dodgy games with us. I'm getting a serious bad vibe from you, and I don't know if your playstyle and rhetoric is just completely turning me off, or are you just acting extremely scummy. I think it's somewhere in the middle.

Unvote

because a

vote: Flareonage

is much more in line with my heart and mind at this point.

That deserves a policy lynch.

As I've said above, I'm completely neutral on this. I happened to catch the thread before Hoopla brought it up, and it doesn't really positively or negatively affect my position on Quagmire. If Quagmire continues to play like he has, I can support his lynch, but I am firmly against a policy lynch otherwise. It just makes it worse that you, of all people, are the first one to vote Quagmire on this basis. Mostly because I feel as though this is your out to cast a "non-random" vote without "being attacked" for your opinion.

---

I like Nacho's 132, and I think he breaths a little life into what may or may not have been a dying Tracker wagon.

---

Now that I think about it it doesn't deserve a policy lynch.

So will you be unvoting and revoting your "random" target again? Already you're backing away from your position again.

Are you normally this flightly, Flare? That may be what's giving me such a negative view of you, because I think people who wagonhop, especially when they hop back to a "random" vote, completely turn me off. I really don't want to be seen as tunnelled on you, but seemingly every post you make gives me a worse impression of you. Don't get me wrong, I also get frustrated with stalwarts who would sooner slit their wrists than see another point of view, but I'd much rather someone argue their point of view than raise the white flag the second someone questions them. I don't have to tell you, Flare, which group you fall into.

---

Flareonage is pretty solidly town.

Policy lynches are the worst things that could possibly happen in mafia.

That deserves a policy lynch.

Explain, please. Do it with passion too, because I'm on the complete opposite side.

[RedCoyote]

Oops. Obviously Quagmire wrote post 138, that was a typo on my part.

[RedCoyote]

It is extremely interesting to see the vehemence with which Nacho is trying to defend Quag here.

I'm worried that some players, not to name names, with non-town roles might be trying take advantage of the Quagmire situation for personal gain. What do you think of that?

[RedCoyote]

I'm terribly sorry for this, but please, replace me out.

---

Vague accusations like that suck. Name names, don't be scared.

I'm not scared. I've already stated that Flare's position on Quagmire sounded insincere, and it's part of the reason I am voting him. I think Cyberbob is reaching, which is why I quoted him. Honestly I think he's overdramatizing the situation, and it could be part of something bigger. That's just something to keep under your hat, Hoopla.

[RedCoyote]

This is all a big smokescreen, and I won't really have any part in it any longer. It is a waste of our time, and it's distracting most of the townies from doing anything else. I don't know whether or not it's worth using the lynch on Quagmire if only the quell this principled uproar, but I don't think everyone on his wagon is there honestly. I implore those voting him to keep a closer eye on your wagon buddies as the day marches on.

---

Oi oi oi!

Welcome, AGar!

[RedCoyote]

If you're trying to bus somebody (which is honestly what all these shifty little attempts to focus suspicion look like), you're doing it badly.

Bus who? Quagmire or the wagon in general? Either way I agree that would be a bad bus because, for starters, it doesn't resemble bussing at all.

When did you ever have a part in it to begin with?

When I live in a town that is unwilling to get their hands dirty because they see an easy way out of D1. I'm part of it because I'm stuck playing devil's advocate on an issue that I don't really care about. I think townies squabbling during D1, especially if there are two strong, competing wagons, gives us a lot more to go on later on in the game than a D1 of "I don't like Quagmire's strategy, let's use D1 to lynch him then start fresh D2." "I agree." "I agree." "I agree."

---

you seem to be avoiding the possibility of Quagmire scum

No, you're right; that's very well a possibility. I'm just not going to say Quagmire should be lynched on a technicality that I don't see as reprehensible as you do.

If he is scum, do you think his buddies would be bussing him, or trying to make use of his tactic and keep him alive?

Yeah, I think there's a good chance of that. Mostly because only three people have made it a point not to join the Quagmire lynch on its current logic. Of those three, Flare has also said the exact opposite, so he could hop again at any moment.

What makes you think his wagon is scum-driven? What chance do you give his wagon being town-driven?

Because it's a red herring. We're missing opportunities to get multiple wagons going. The strategy in question is causing smokescreen, and D1 is turning into a referendum on the strategy itself. You can discuss mafia politics in the Mafia Discussion forum, let's use this thread to discuss who in our town is scummy. I've proposed Flare as a D1 lynch on account of his spinelessness and flipfloping. Nacho thinks that we're letting The Tracker get away with too much. Are you interested in these cases at all, Hoopla?

As far as the wagon being town-driven. You know my position on Flare. Cyberbob isn't very high on my town list either. While that bodes well for you and hito, I wouldn't give high chances that the wagon is town-driven.

---

Quag is getting some heat for this and i am totally convinced there is at least one scum on the wagon for his lynch and will be one of those pushing for it.

I love this statement to death. This is the kind of critical thinking that I think the game has been lacking.

I like post 202 in general, with the small exception being that angel's vote ended up on someone who wasn't voting Quagmire. I think I'm okay with that though because her reasoning is solid. I don't give The Tracker particularly high marks myself. He's seemed very self-interested for the better part of this game. When Quagmire started catching flak, that would've been a good opportunity for The Tracker to make an offensive push, possibly shaking off some of the earlier suspicions he had thrown on him. I think he's dropped the ball in this respect though.

---

It's not that a town PR will be forced to claim that's the problem - the problem is that it makes a situation where the optimum scum play and optimum town play are more or less the same.

Yeah, this is a much better way of putting it.

But these odds are what let Quagmire get away with doing this every game; and while he says he's 'always acting pro-town' any blind scumhunting he does doesn't come close to us losing a whole day of information on his slot.

This is where you start to lose me. Why should I care what other towns have let Quagmire get away with?

---

Cyberbob's case isn't the strongest, but I feel it's pretty valid, considering the amount of town I've noticed so far in this game (Hoopla, Nachomamma, Flareon).

I still don't see Flare as town, and I still haven't seen anyone give any basis for thinking that other than "he may be a newb". I take it this is your reasoning as well.

---

Unlike a few people in this game, I am a big fan of policy lynches when they present the appropriate opportunity.

So would you support a lynch of Cyberbob on the basis that he admitted to not reading most of what other people post?

Nacho, your buddying and defense of the tactic reeks of bad play.

Why do you think buddying as opposed to him having a different opinion than you do?

[RedCoyote]

I'd suggest that a Quagmire lynch is now quite informative of other player's alignments regardless of what he flips.

This is true; I'm not going to deny this other than to say that the same argument could be made for The Tracker as well.

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'.

Well, technically speaking, the entire game is guesswork short of an open game or possibly a confirmed investigation. Are you trying to say that, despite it being likely that there is a scum on the Quagmire wagon, it's useless to try and figure out who it is? Explain why this statement puts you off, because I think it's something that needs to be said to a group of people who may or may not be letting their mafia philosophies cloud their scumhunting.

---

I see very little posting trying to convince us otherwise with actual cases.

Here.

If Flare posted more, I'd be more inclined to evolve my opinion on him, be it positive or negative. He has seemed to have slowed down somewhat.

If anything, lynching someone who changes their mind whimsically will keep them from making a rash decision at the wrong time. Assuming he's town that is. Still, no one has been really willing to come to bat for him. Quagmire and Hoopla has expressed support of him, but without anything to really say about the matter.

---

Additionally, if Mindgamer doesn't post

today

, I'd ask the

Mod

to be ready to replace. We already have very little time left until the deadline, and given, well, life, people aren't going to always remember their commitments to the game. I hope Mindgamer comes back today ready to go, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

[RedCoyote]

I also want to point out that lynching the lead wagon for the sake of "information" is almost always a valid argument due to the fact that 5 person bandwagons don't just happen. Even on the rare occasions that they do, they are quickly, and rightfully, scrutinized.

In other words, to say Quagmire is a good lynch because everyone has given opinion is somewhat misleading, because I dread the day I get stuck in a town where people don't care enough to comment on the highest vote getter at any given time.

[RedCoyote]

I hope Hoopla, cruelty, AGar, and Cyberbob are happy that they get their political lynch through. I have seen no case on Quag based on anything game related, outside of some minor lurking issues.

I guess his role will be a surprise to us all.

unvote

;

vote: Quagmire

[RedCoyote]

A Tracker flip does not bode well for our Miller claim.

[RedCoyote]

How does the CPR doctor flip and lack of second night kill bode for our FBI Agent claim then?

A number of things could account for this. Traditionally I do not assume there is one killing party after only one night of activity. If there were multiple shots, they could've been on the same person. There could be a Roleblocker, there could be another Doctor, there could be a Jailer, there could be a Bulletproof vest, etc.

I'm not saying the most likely explanation is that there for sure is an SK alive, but rather your comparison is not equal.

---

Can you explain further? I have never played with a tracker before and a little unfamilure with the role and how that doesn't bode well for a Miller.

The only thing that makes a Miller different than any other townie is the results you get upon a Cop's investigation. With Cyberbob flipping Tracker, one of three things must be true:

Either the town has a Tracker and a Cop role, the town has a Miller and no Cop role (defeating the purpose of the Miller, but the setup maybe designed to throw us off), or there is no Miller and potentially no Cop.

---

Well, the role PM warned me there was a chance there was no SK.

This sounds honest albeit self-serving.

---

(or do millers flip scum when they die, as well?)

These are called Death Millers at MS, and as far as I know they are generally frowned upon.

---

From my perspective, it is far more likely that this is a set-up gimmick, rather than scum-Tracker getting lucky with a fakeclaim that locks in with other roles.

I think you're trying to slip your way into The Tracker's, in my opinion, much more believable situation. I do not think FBI Agents are a common as Millers are, but I am open to being proven wrong.

---

I love hito's post 325. I'm actually very supportive of the Mindgamer wagon, which I feel kind of surprised with. Not surprised at my taking to it, but that the wagon exists at all.

---

I meant the reasons for people voting tracker make more sense then the reasons for the people voting mindgamer. If I had been online when the day phase started I probably would've voted the tracker too. I've never seen an FBI agent role so I would've thought an SK would be here but I guess not

Bare with me, Flare, as I try my best to translate this fairly.

You're saying your kneejerk reaction is to vote The Tracker, but that since you saw other people do it, you realized it was the wrong thing to do. Additionally, you don't believe there is an SK, but you do believe The Tracker's claim, because of the benefit you had from reading everyone else's early D2 posts?

Is this correct?

---

Now, I find it highly unlikely that you would decide to claim FBI Agent as opposed to just straight cop, and the CPR Doc flip just solidified that in my mind.

Agreed.

---

Mindgamer is currently a good wagon, but I'd like to see someone else with a few votes to vie for lynch. The worse thing that can happen today is a Mindgamer lynch (if he's town) without someone else feeling the pressure of the noose.

I agree with this, but I obviously don't agree with your conclusion. I don't like your claim right now, Hoopla, if I haven't made that clear enough. I'm not suspicious enough to act on it, but I'm suspicious enough to be the voice of the minority.

You asked a question of angel, but I'm going to put my two cents in it as well. Both cruelty and Flare stick out of Quagmire's wagon like nobody's business. I don't particularly like your participation in it either, but that's another argument.

I seriously got the impression that cruelty voted Quagmire almost purely out of spite, especially after their little slapfest at the end of the day. He won't agree with that characterization of course, but the town can draw their own conclusions. cruelty played a big part in artifically extending that wagon. He either did so out of emotion and principle, being against Quagmire's D1 play, or he did so to because he did not want another wagon to garner any steam, as lynching townQuagmire or (supposedly) townTheTracker would've been good enough.

I've already made my opinion clear on Flare, and that's not really changed much. I don't like his inconsistencies, and his jump to the Quagmire wagon was about as weak as a vote could be. Flare is particularly intent on making sure the town knows he is not responsible for anything that goes wrong with his vote. That shoots up all sorts of red flags in my head.

Of the two, who am I more likely to be wrong on? Flare.

Vote: cruelty

with the reminder that I do not dislike the Mindgamer wagon, but that, like Hoopla said, it's extremely important to have at least two people realistically vying for the lynch.

[RedCoyote]

1. If Tracker's claim is found to be fake, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be real or fake?
2. If Hoopla's claim is found to be fake, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
3. If Tracker's claim is found to be real, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be fake or real?
4. If Hoopla's claim is found to be real, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
5. Which is a more likely combination; Tracker/Cop or CPR Doctor/SK?
6. Which is a more likely combination; no cop/SK, SK but no cop, Cop but no SK, Cop and SK?
7. If neither a cop or SK exist in this set-up, which is more likely; an FBI agent, a miller, both miller and FBI, or neither roles?

1. I'd like to say it wouldn't have any effect, because that doesn't change the fact that it's hard for me to stomach a town with a Tracker and a Cop. It would likely make your claim more believable though.
2. I would probably be more skeptical.
3. More likely to be fake. Doesn't change the fact that I have a hard time believing Cop + Tracker.
4. Opposite of number two, I would probably be more likely to believe it, if anything.
5. I honestly would say the latter. We don't know how big the mafia team or teams are.
6. Right now it's no Cop or SK. That could change tomorrow.
7. If neither role exist, then neither the FBI Agent nor the Miller is likely. That doesn't necessarily mean that is what I believe to be the case though.

Millers are more normal, although a recent trend seems to be that some mods don't tell you you're a miller. FBI Agent also can go by the name of Psychologist but is still quite uncommon. Why do you associate commonness of the role with believability?

Well, why

wouldn't

you? I mean, I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but I'm going to tend to accept a Doctor claim over a Super Saint claim. That's a little more exaggerated, but I really do consider the Miller as a very common role. I certainly wouldn't put it by someone like you to strategically throw a Miller claim out early in the game as a precautionary measure.

[RedCoyote]

I can sort of see where she's coming from with her vote on RC. While statistically Quag was more likely to be town that scum, he did seem to be fairly strongly neglecting the possibility of Quag-scum.

When the chips were down and I saw no other viable option... I voted Quagmire. What gets me is, no one was really interested in making a case against Quagmire. You know that better than anyone here, I think. You were able to step back from the siutation and say, "Hey, wait, maybe this wagon against Quagmire is more based on emotion rather than substance".

That's how I saw it from the beginning. I'm not bragging, townies are always going to make mistakes, but I'm just saying that I didn't seriously consider the Quagmire wagon because there was nothing to consider. I lost on D1 as well, as those who did not support the Quagmire wagon were ultimately not able to convince the others that the lynch was no good.

---

how do you rate the possibility of a miller with no cop?

It's possible. Are you implying there is a theme to the roles?

Letting The Tracker off because he claimed an uncommon role as opposed to a common role is laughable.

Well, I answered your question, now you get to defend your side. Why? Why does claiming a more "common" role necessarily make you more believable than The Tracker?

Quick question for RC; if roles were reversed, and I had claimed FBI Agent, and Tracker had claimed Miller, would you hold the same suspicions?

Same suspicions of you or of the role situation?

---

Well I still think you're wasting both your time and ours with that line of inquiry, but you're at least following a line of inquiry at all which is more than can be said of most people here. So I guess for now I'll just sit back and watch the show.

Since you're content on kicking back, let me grill you a bit. If Mindgamer was taken out of the picture, who is next on your list?

[RedCoyote]

To clarify, sitting back was meant in just the context of Hoopla's 'case' on you.

I should also clarify that I didn't mean for this to come off as dickish. I don't think you're just lazily going through the day or anything. I started up typing a joke or something in relation to your comment, but I scrapped the punchline in my final editing process and left the opening intact.

And the one main opinion he did deliver (that a Quagmire lynch) apparently changed to 'I don't see it as particularity horrible...' in the span of half a day.

I agree with your Flare comment, and I think this is pretty solid, too.

---

You were Mr. Let's Kill Quagmire the whole day, and when the wagon had gained far too much momentum to stop, then you mentioned that you were feeling doubts. Seems like a cheap way to gain tow points in my eyes.

Although I think there is validity to this, this comes off dangerously close to some OMGUS attack.

In other words, if hito's switch didn't sit well with you, why are you only bringing it up now after he explained his suspicions of you, rather than earlier? It's almost like a genetic fallacy:

hito switched his position on Quagmire during D1, therefore hito is unfit to call anyone out for flipping.

Outside from that, I do agree that I don't think you've been committing IIoA.

---

Good shit, I should not have signed up for two games at the same time. Simply don't have the time to keep track of them both.

You can do it, man. Set aside half an hour or so, just read over the pages and pick a few things too comment on. It's not as much as it looks like.

---

I strongly think this set-up has a symmetry or gimmick, by the way The Tracker worded his post about his role.

It's kind of the elephant in the room, at least for our argument. Unlike arguing the logic of our current claims, that's seriously broaching into "outguessing" territory though.

Which would you believe more? Probably the obscure, detailed excuse as you've never encountered this type of lie before. Although as the boss, you probably wouldn't condemn the common excuse as a lie, but you'd naturally be more skeptical. I think most people have this bias.

I see where you're coming from. I'm almost willing to give it to you... but I just can't swallow the idea that fake FBI Agent claims have the same probability of occuring as fake Miller claims. In a perfect world, yes, you're 100% right. On paper, in theory, in a perfect world, etc, however you want to say it, people would not be as unimaginative as to go for the predictable role claims time after time. This is all starting to sound very WIFOMy, and we also have to take into account the length of time you and The Tracker have been playing here at MS.

Does the personality/ability of the player affect your decision?

Yes, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that if the role were reversed I would be pressuring your FBI Agent claim. I probably wouldn't give The Tracker as much grief as I've given you though.

---

1: I didn't vote for Quag solely out of spite, but I definitely wasn't unhappy to vote him.
2: I thought there was a good chance he'd read his role and was lying.
3: He claimed to be scumhunting, but I didn't see any real evidence of him doing so.

1: We're at an impasse. The town will have to make up their own mind about it.
2: I don't think you believe this, especially after all the "LOLITROLLU" comments.
3: I disagree. Granted, he was stuck in defensive mode, but he did eventually give his opinion on the town when asked to.

I've read through the thread so I'm technically up to date, but I need to read through day 1 again to place it in context (it's been a long week in hot temperatures, my brain is fried) - I'll try to answer any questions anyone has of me, but I'm not 100% up to speed yet.

None for me at the moment, but I'd like to see your offense when you get the chance to sit and think about it.

[RedCoyote]

I'm serious about my cruelty vote. It isn't a joke or anything like that, if that's what y'all may have been thinking.

I'd also be comfortable with a Mindgamer, Flare, Hoopla, or possibly a Nacho lynch. I've seen no substantial reasons to lynch either angelmouse or hito.

---

Should I just ask for a replacement then? I try my best with the time I have, but it's not appreciated. Apparently I'm not making the game enjoyable for you and you certainly aren't making the game enjoyable for me.
Replacement? Your choice.

Don't take it personal, Mindgamer. If you feel overburdened, then by all means replace out, but no one here is trying to attack you as a person. There's a definite line between thinking what you did is or isn't scummy and thinking you are making the game non-enjoyable, and so far as I can tell no one thinks you are making the game non-enjoyable.

[RedCoyote]

That's inconsistent. The first bolded part, you're sure I'm basing my vote on emotion, then you're suddenly ascribing devious logic to it, saying that I artificially extended the wagon out of either spite or strategy.

That's not inconsistent. I'm still saying that you voted Quagmire out of spite. If you are town, you did just that. You voted him emotionally with a personal vendetta against his playstyle. If you are mafia, like all mafia, you actually voted him because you knew he wasn't on your mafia team. You still voted him spitefully either way, but in the second instance the anger with Quagmire would've just been a ruse, an excuse.

[RedCoyote]

I wouldn't jump to lying, but that's a pretty clean cut contradiction.

[RedCoyote]

Flare, what would be your perfect D2 for this game?

Give me the person you most want lynched, at least one person you wouldn't mind to see lynched, and a person you are willing to stand behind as a safe bet for townie.

[RedCoyote]

A safe bet for townie? There's no way for me to know who is town so I'm not just gonna blindly trust 1 single player.

There's not one person here you feel comfortable is town?

---

mmm yeah, i think i side with cruelty here. hey cruelty, want to start a bandwagon on RC with me? It'll be fun.

Honestly I had no idea why people suspected RC until Cruelty's post. Now I see why.

Alright, this really grinds my gears (unless you mixed the names up, Tracker, in which case you may ignore this). Apparently my response was just flat ignored because I responded to cruelty in post 396. Why wouldn't y'all quote that? If you agree with him, what do you have to say to it? Why are y'all skimming the game when it's moving as slow as it is?

---

See, I'm in a tricky situation. There is no one I can go with to prop an alternative lynch. Like I said, I think the Mindgamer lynch is okay, and I have no problem moving my vote to his wagon as the deadline approaches. It would just be more helpful for the town if there were to be another strong wagon as opposed to a few individual votes. The problem is that, coincidentally, everyone who

isn't

on the Mindgamer wagon is bad news, with the exception of me and possibly angelmouse's replacement.

[RedCoyote]

Hold it!

I just realized something.

I wouldn't mind lynching tracker.

So you don't believe his claim any longer?

[RedCoyote]

6 players are bad news, and those (3) on the MG wagon are cleared in your eyes?

*Four.

Flare, Hoopla, you, and Mindgamer.

I guess you get six if you add me and angelmouse into that count of yours, even though I specifically said that me and angelmouse's replacement were exceptions...

I am fairly sure there is one scum in that group, and possibly more.

Also, can you please tell me where I said anyone was clear? Or did you just make that part up?

---

I'll read the thread and get back to you guys.

Welcome to the game, Ed.

The hot issues of the day seem to be Mindgamer's first vote and subsequent pessimism following a wagon on him, and talk of alternative wagons (take note of all the people being voted who aren't Mindgamer).

The only people I could see having a realistic shot at being lynched are Mindgamer, Nacho, and cruelty. This is of course depending on how you and Flare fall down, because right now both of y'all are kind of wild cards in the game.

I was pretty fond of angelmouse, so you're starting off in a good position in my book. On day 1, as you've already referred to, we lynched Quagmire. So we have two flipped town power roles, and one player who as claimed to be the third (The Tracker). The end of post 334 summarizes my cruelty vote, compounded by his unwillingness to give an offense beyond OMGUS.

@Tracker: Who did you investigate last night and why?

Lol, that

would

be a good question.

Tracker, why didn't you ever bring this up?

---

I like hito's 425, and I feel as though him, AGar, and, to an extent, Nacho, are the only players actively following this game and giving solid commentary. Neither Hoopla nor The Tracker seem to want to argue with me or read my posts, which is kind of new to me.

I don't mind being voted, it's happened many a time and it will happen many more, but it's rare that someone votes me and precedes to ignore and refuse to engage me.

[RedCoyote]

We can extrapolate 2 things from that quote:

1: You have doubts about everyone not on the Mindgamer wagon (like it's scummy to be off it??).
2: You have a strong town read from the people on the wagon.

1) Why would I have doubts about anyone not on the Mindgamer wagon if I'm not even on it? Again, I specifically made my mindset clear by using the word coincidentally, and, in what I don't think is a coincidence, you just so happened to leave that out of your quote.
2) You're using false logic when you make the assumption that I am "clearing" everyone on the Mindgamer wagon. I stated that I don't feel comfortable with you, Hoopla, Flare, and Mindgamer's positions as town. That's it. It's a fallacy to think that necessarily implies I get a "strong town read" off of everyone else.

I contend that you're trying to box me into a corner with these kinds of narrow comments.

Towncoaching much?

I don't know what that means, but I haven't seen anything to indicate otherwise. Perhaps you have, but I'd call that unrealistic.

I'm not really seeing your love for angel to be honest. I get that you liked one post of hers, but you're being critical of her in the early game in my mind nullifies that. I think that this too is a little inconsistent.

Well, given that for most of Day 1, you, Hoopla, Cyberbob, AGar, and hito were focused on punishing Quagmire, I found common ground with Nacho, angel, and, eventually, hito's reluctance to take part in the Quagmire debacle. While I won't argue with you that I was cooled to her as the game began, it was pretty clear that once we began arguing serious things, namely lynching, I agreed with her perspective far more than anyone who honestly supported lynching Quagmire.

I think a big part of my problem with you is the way you articulate yourself, it's coming off (for me) as really fuckin sly.

XD

---

RC - don't be so sure of your safety. I personally, as I said, have a neutral read. If I'm forced between lynching a neutral read, a town read and a no lynch, I'm picking the neutral read.

I'm confident Ed, as an outsider coming in, will see cruelty's self-servicing for what it is. I'm confident Hoopla's unimpressive droning will do more to push you and other rational townies away than it will to rope you in. I'm confident in Flare being supportive of me, or at least unpredictable enough to not be counted on for a vote. You put all that together with what hito and Nacho have said about me, and my lynch doesn't look like a very reasonable outcome today.

Hoopla still may snap out of whatever trance she's in, but even if she doesn't, I don't see a cruelty or Nacho lynch as unreasonable. I think, when push comes to shove, I can put together scenarios for both of those wagons. Mindgamer is of course still the favorite, I think, in everyone's book, but it's most definitely not a sure thing.

---

Red, here's the thing, I don't find any discrepancies in your post to build a solid case on. Just little things that don't equate to a vote. If you're not confident in your vote or case, why bother with one? That's one of my rules.

Thank you, I think.

But I think I understand where you are coming from. All I wanted to explain in my previous post was that I had addressed cruelty in post 396, and it didn't seem like you or Hoopla acknowledged it.

[RedCoyote]

What trance is that, mister?

Your tunnel, your blinders, your unhealthy obsession with me and the wagon you've constructed on my behalf. You're absolutely deadlocked here, to the point where you're no longer even speaking to me.

it's more a genuine inkling that his response to the Quagmire wagon is fabricated

In other words, intuition.

[RC] then never contributes to any other major wagon

Okay, let's get real here. I pushed genuinely hard on Flare, and it was the town that didn't give me the time of day, not the other way around. I tried very hard to make my wagon appeal to the town, but no one bit. You can't sit here and say I'm not contributing my suspicions to the game. To be honest, I was only lukewarm to The Tracker wagon to begin with. The reason why I wasn't pushing The Tracker wagon with any ferocity is because, well, I didn't think it was the best wagon out there. So why should I push it?

I was surprised how little interaction he with The Tracker considering his mantra for wanting competing wagons.

Because The Tracker was not my choice for the alternative wagon. I don't think Flare was ever sufficently pressured for his blantant scumtells. If you want to really take it back, I think my willingness to rank Tracker as a kind of middle of the road choice goes all the way back to post 62, where I pushed on Mindgamer and angel for their spontaneous defense of The Tracker, rather than The Tracker himself.

[RedCoyote]

Are you angry at me?

Hey, how do you feel about Flare now, compared to Day 1?

Of course not. At least, I'm not mad at the real Hoopla. I think the Nice'n'Fun Hoopla has been shirking her duties as a supposed townie. I think there is a group of people who need more from you than, "RC lynch, yum yum!" It's great if I flip scum for you, but what if I flip town?

I think post 334 is still accurate in regards to how I see Flare now. If I'm wrong about a read, it's probably how I read him as scum. But I still think it's worth lynching Flare to find it out for sure.

If he's getting replaced then I'm willing to back off on that a bit.

[RedCoyote]

why are my duties higher than other players? My position on almost every player is known - I think I've contributed more than a lot of players here.

Not lately you haven't. Eight of your last nine posts have been exclusively about me and my wagon. Many of them in the vein of, "What the hell, let's just wagon RC." I don't think I'm asking anymore more of you than anyone else, if AGar was stuck on me the way you are I'd be pushing him just as much.

---

Wouldn't the people who did lynch him receive more blame for actually lynching him and whiting out the town with arguments about something non-game related be scummier than somebody who saw what was happening?

I agree with this, and it's partially why I am voting cruelty.

---

but that won't stop me from posting some last bits.

I certainly hope not. Now is the time to tells us who the mafia really are, from your point of view. Let it all out.

---

Can someone please summarise the case on Mindgamer?

He was very defensive D1, and as D2 began he was out for a quick lynch of the player who had claimed FBI Agent the day before.

When he was criticized for the vote, he immediately unvoted, and then got very upset as the wagon on him grew.

[RedCoyote]

As far as I can tell that's the only reason..

Your general lack of interest in the game that's not surrounding my vote of you is worrisome. I don't assume OMGUS votes unless people can't separate my voting them from general scumhunting/offense.

I also go backwards in that if I wouldn't have voted you, would you be voting me? The answer is no, you wouldn't be. Hoopla asked you to vote me, and you were likely sore at me for picking on you (otherwise, why am I suddenly your number one suspect after you get back from V/LA?).

---

I get the impression throughout it he hadn’t considerered Quagmire scum.

Do you mean I am scummy because I wasn't offended by his D1 technique or I'm scummy because I didn't say "well, there's a 1/11 chance he's scum, so why not"?

Vague accusations at no one in particular are pointless, either name people or don’t say anything as far as I’m concerned.

It was directed at Cyberbob, as I stated not long after that post, but it was aimed toward the wagon in general. There was no substantial basis for the wagon, it was entirely political.

Calling it a smokescreen is not true. The wagon is quite informative in many ways.

That's redundant though. By that definition, every wagon is "informative". I meant in the sense that it was a smokescreen from actual scumhunting. I wasn't just talking either because I made a strong push for a Flare lynch. I would've also been comfortable with other candidates. I wasn't just huffing and puffing; I had actual, rational lynch alternatives that weren't steeped in emotion.

Completely ignoring any possibility that Quag is scum is not something town would do. You’re scum who knew this was a mislynch and tried to get as many town points by not being involved/defending it as you could.

What was the basis for calling him scum, Faraday? There was none. It was a shot in the dark. I felt very comfortable he wasn't scum, and I won't deny that. I felt it mainly because, I don't know, he hadn't done anything scummy?

How could he have? He didn't know his role.

I think [cruelty is] playing quite openly and town like

In that case, go ahead and give me a D2 quote where he says who he suspects (other than me), maybe who he thinks is town? He threw out a token, "Mindgamer is a bad wagon", but that's because Mindgamer is the competing wagon to me.

I'll save everyone the trouble. Here is cruelty's D2 contributions to the game outside of my wagon.

I also don't see how being upset as the wagon grew is something that's more likely to come from scum.

Some people go for it as an AtE scumtell.

[RedCoyote]

I should prob also note that you were on an earlier Quag bandwagon for a lack of contribution, so you had to have some sort of doubts about him at some point in the game (or were you buddying hito???)

No, because poking the lurker is a good early strategy. I was very clear that my vote was intended to pressure Quagmire, so I'm thinking you're just trying to score more points with this statement.

(btw sup RC??)

I answered this when Hoopla asked it. In short, there was no reason for me to get on a wagon when I saw a better one, especially after The Tracker claimed.

It's true. I'm driving full tilt down an OMGUS tunnel with the lights off and Lynyrd Skynyrd blasting out Free Bird.

I guess you're being sarcastic here, but it is true.

---

I'm starting to believe the Mindgamer wagon will result in a scum lynch less and less now, for some reason.

And? This isn't anything new.

In other words, "If you are voting Mindgamer, switch to RC".

---

RC what do you think of the cruelty wagon? Maybe you've said it before, but pretty please re-state it for me

Well, I started it, and I support it strongly.

Post 334 is what started it. His

inability

refusal to look at other parts of this game since then has got my heels dug in pretty well. Even if he is town, now I'm worried that anyone who suspects him (town or scum) in the future will have cruelty coming down on them without contemplation.

---

I really feel like we're at a crossroads here. I don't know how it could be more blantant than cruelty's post 480. Not only does he not decide to take a step back from his tunnel, he makes a joke about his refusal to give the game an objective look. He makes a throwaway comment about Nacho's disappearance (although he is right, to be fair), but the unvote/vote thing is just rubbing it in, not only my face, but the collective town's faces.

I don't know, if Hoopla and Faraday see cruelty as playing pro-town in this post, then this town is going to really suffer. I very much doubt that all three of these players are scum, although I would highly suspect there is one, possibly two, scum in that group (Hoopla, cruelty, Faraday).

Whoever is town though, I don't know how to say it without coming across as arrogant or, you know, patronizing. You're not looking at this game the right way. hito summed it up about as good as anyone could,

I don't know what to make of Faraday's scumlist. I don't possibly see how RC could be the strongest scum read and cruelty a town read upon an objective viewing of this thread. However, that's really delving into the area of 'anyone who disagrees with me MUST be scum' which is obviously untrue.

I honestly and truly agree with this. What worries me is that there is a serious rift in this town, one that I don't know how we will overcome, regardless of who the lynch is. AGar, The Tracker, Nacho, and Mindgamer sitting this discussion out is telling though, so I definitely know one or two of them are delibrately trying to stay out of the battlefield that the rest of the game is in.

[RedCoyote]

I still don't see the big thing which would make RedCoyote scum. The cases are collections of little scumtells as far as I can see.

What exactly is the convincing argument for a RedCoyote vote?

(emphasis added)

I like how after Mindgamer said this,

all three

people on my wagon chose to ignore him.

But I urge everyone to consider RC as a possibility please!

Ugh this is really frustrating that no one seems open to an RC lynch.

That just speaks volumes about the sincerity of my wagon. They're essentially confessing to Mindgamer that they don't have anything, and that he just needs to "be more open" to it, or whatever.

Like Faraday though, Mindgamer's unwillingness to join my wagon despite his own really makes me think him more as town.

I don't know. I feel like if we lynch Mindgamer, this problem is going to fester tomorrow, barring mafia intervention. I really feel like this town is broken straight down the middle on cruelty.

I mean, I don't know what else to say. Mafia or not, cruelty has a chip on his shoulder that he's willingly acknowledged. I don't see how someone can not see that as anti-town. At the very least, he should be gotten rid of in case he does what he's doing to me to someone else tomorrow. AGar, The Tracker, and Nacho (we'll see how the replacement does; hi horror) are either absent or have not come down on one side or the other with any passion.

[RedCoyote]

I was waiting for him to read it and form his own opinion of the wagon before answering.

Read: CYA

Come on, Faraday. Maybe I'd buy it if you said that you kind of skimmed the post and didn't notice the question, but if anything him admitting that he had not read it carefully would be a sign for you to, I don't know, assist him? Give a summary? Point to a post? Explain your reasoning? Anything?

I'm annoyed because people can't seem to see your scumminess, but I'm pretty sure that was clear the first time.

Yeah, "people".

As in people

not

voting me. As in Mindgamer.

Just to be clear, you do still think he's scummy don't you?

Absolutely I do. Here's the 64 thousand dollar question though: Do you think there were scum on Quagmire's wagon? If so, who is the most likely to be it (excluding me, obviously)?

---

Unwilling to lynch Quagmire, but happy to push the possibility that I might do the same thing tomorrow?

What do you mean?

I voted Quagmire...

---

You're OK with lynching half the player roster... I would expect a townie to put some more thought into determining who's town and who's scum.

Apparently, we have different approaches to the game. I see this as a political disagreement.

Additionally, just because I am comfortable with their lynch, doesn't necessarily mean I am "determining" them as scum. I know there aren't going to be 5 scum in a 12 player game.

Look at it this way, I think a townie should play the game as openly as they possibly can. By that I mean, there's no sense in concealing who it is you are not comfortable with, and who it is you are. The only reason I haven't given a scumscale yet in this game is because we've had a lot to talk about.

---

I don't think that I should really be jumping into this game in the middle when I don't even have a newbie game under my belt. If I would have joined in the beginning, it would be a different story, but for now I must leave this game and focus on other games/RL

There was a point or two I disagreed with you on, but I really, really liked your opening post. I'm positive those who disagreed with you liked your opening post, too. You obviously had read the game, and you gave clear, absolute positions on where you stood after doing so. One cannot ask for a better replacement than that. I really wish you would reconsider leaving us, because I can definitely see the enthusiasm in your post. Trust me, I've seen some rotten replacements before, and you are most certainly not one of them.

If you don't come back, then I hope Mindgamer is happy scaring you away.

---

Mindgamer, if I'm the

only

genuine voter, then what are your reasons for voting me? Obv, it's no based off of the wagon on you, so you'll have to explain quite well what your reasoning for finding me scummy is.

Like Hoopla said, this is a good point.

This coupled with Mindgamer's "I don't agree with the RC lynch... but here are some more scumtells to keep it going *wink wink*" have rubbed me the wrong way.

[RedCoyote]

Not when he said he was going back to read it later, seems reasonable to let him go back and read it properly and then answer any questions he has, doesn't it.

I don't know if that's supposed to be a statement or a question. If it's a question, then no, it doesn't seem reasonable. Mindgamer's request looked pretty clear cut to me.

I mean, Mindgamer can speak for himself. If he says you're right, then there's little else I can argue to the contrary.

---

Yes. Red's posting clearly, driving the town, and scumhunting.

hito doesn't love you like he loves me, Hoops. <3 <3 <3

Agar is slipping down into neutral-leaning-town, not so much because of a scummy something he did but because I'm suddenly not seeing his strong presence that gave me such a town read in the first place.

I've also noticed AGar's unwillingness to really commit to one side or the other in my past couple of posts. He has been consistent though, I don't see him making posts that indicate he is going soft on Mindgamer.

[RedCoyote]

Should I ignore that just because he's a newbie? Of course not. I think his departure is indicative of his alignment though. If he was scum, he would just try to counter my arguments. But if he was town , he could think he was doing a poor job because I was pointing out flaws.

Mindgamer, I was just messing with you, lol. I'm sorry; it's hard to convey tone over the Internet. I was just giving you a hard time. I don't dislike you, and I'm not scumbuddies with The Tracker.

---

Did you want to?

I made it pretty clear that I did not.

---

Well, because I don't really have much time or energy to deal with posting real content, here's a filler post that says who make up this hydra.

What does hydra mean? I've heard it multiple times recently, and I just can't place it within the context.

In general, just so you know, I'm completely lost with this entire post.

Who's interested in a faraday lynch?

I have no problem with it. While Faraday and I haven't seen eye to eye, at least I can tell he has a backbone. I was extremely put off by Flare for almost the entire time he was around. Indeed, Flare D1 was my scumpick. Even coming into D2, in the post I voted cruelty, I was seriously debating whether or not I should've just continued to grill Flare.

viewtopic.php?t=11680 is the link from Vi's other game that I referenced.

The only think that really sticks out to me here is the Miller/No Cop.

Which, coupled with what I understand to be Vi's resistance to the Cop role in general, would give Hoopla more breathing room in my outlook of this game.

I don't see the connection to Faraday though.

[RedCoyote]

A hydra is an account where one or more individuals know the password and operate under that name.

The players discuss their reads, etc, so it's basically like having masons for a player slot, I guess.

In this case, both amished and myself know the password to the EdFrost account, and we both operate in its games. Amished is the designated voter in that I won't be doing any votes or unvotes for us.

Oh cool, what an interesting concept.

I was wondering what you meant when you said you had played with me before, lol.

---

The sheer amount of them and unwillingess to take a stand on people.

This sounds like someone I know.

[RedCoyote]

Every player had to play in a hydra, but was in both games ran separately, with quick deadlines. It was fun.

It does look fun. I'll have to keep my eye out for anymore games with a hydra style to them.

---

Only really one scum read.

:\

To be clear, I'm drawing a comparison between an unwillingness to lynch quagmire due to his playstyle, and a willingness to do the same thing to me.

Well, I think you'll get agreement nearly across the board that tunnelling is not optimal town (or mafia either for that matter) strategy.

Bottom line, you wouldn't have voted me or saw me as scum had I not voted you. I think we've proven as much. I have to go with the idea that either this is your playstyle, as you say, or that you thought you could both drown out my case and railroad me based on my Quagmire position. The latter seems more logical to me.

[RedCoyote]

You thought you could get me strung up because, one, Hoopla was gunning for me, and two, my position on Quagmire. I imagine you thought that if you hadn't have acted aggressively against me specifically, that I could gain momentum for a cruelty wagon.

[RedCoyote]

I've deliberately drawn attention onto the both of us (more specifically, onto me), made no real attempt to derail the wagon on me and haven't even looked at anyone else. Yeah, wifom, but let's be real here. I'm not making an optimal scum play so I'm either really, really stupid scum (which I assure you I'm not), or I'm bad town.

Come on, cruelty.

mmm yeah, i think i side with cruelty here. hey cruelty, want to start a bandwagon on RC with me? It'll be fun.

Yeah, I got ya.

vote: RC

So I should've saw this as obviously town? I should've said, "Oh, I completely misunderstood you, let me unvote you now"?

I'm not particularly aggressive in terms of seeking out clues, I meander through the game until I find a thread and then I pull it until I'm happy with what I'm seeing.

In other words, until they unvote you.

---

We should start talking compromise lynches. I don't think much has changed on my front, except I'm no longer interested in lynching Hoopla.

cruelty, Faraday, or Mindgamer should be the lynch for today. Everyone needs to start getting out of their attack mode, because we can't rely on replacements getting here in time. It has been several days, and I haven't seen either "side" giving up an inch.

[RedCoyote]

That's six.

I feel for Mindgamer in the sense that horrordude/Nacho, The Tracker, and now AGar, have pretty much disappeared on the game. I likely would've hammered him now if EdFrost hadn't just done it though.

Still, it would've been nice to get 2 (or 3) sets of fresh eyes on the game to weigh in on all of our options.

[RedCoyote]

I've made it clear that I believe The Tracker's claim. It took a while, but I've also come to realize it is pretty unlikely that you are scum, Hoopla.

hito and Ed feel townie to me, but I'm worried that may only be because of our similar agreements. Then again, I've felt pretty good about hito since the start of the game, and Ed replaced for angel, who I saw both positives and negatives for. I like the fact that they (Amish + Ed) pointed out how Vi helped with the setup. It hadn't really crossed my mind until that point, but I have heard of Vi coming down against Cops before. The setup they showed bolstered their argument, too. Cruciare may still have had his own ideas, but I'd say no Cop is still a safe bet as far as what is more logical. Remember, I had no problem with your claim D1, Hoopla. It wasn't until Cyberbob's flip that I felt nervous about the validity of it.

So anyways, that's four in the ten we have left. Meaning that the 3 or 4 scum, in my opinion, will be coming from the remaining six. In reality, all of those six would've been acceptable lynches for me today, but Mindgamer, whatever your position on him now, has undoubtedly done some sketchy things earlier this game.

The tl;dr answer to your question is that I would give a 50 - 66% chance of a scumflip.

[RedCoyote]

similar arguments*

No matter how many times I read over my own posts in the preview, I always seem to mess something up.

[RedCoyote]

Does this read like a weird thing for the mod to say? I think he's hinting that we're in mylo. Although, it's not so much a hint, as I can't imagine a balanced set-up with only 2 scum considering what has already flipped.

Very much so. I was actually reading it as if there were possibly four scum, but reading it this way makes more sense. It's hard for me to imagine it either way really. I don't think there are two scumteams or anything like that.

Anyways, with AGar and Mindgamer both flipping town, I don't feel particularly confident in my reads. Faraday and cruelty are still my suspects, but I can't do much with that at the moment.

The truth is, after 4 dead townies without hitting scum, we basically need to lynch correctly 3 times in a row. Town's don't often win these situations, so we need to maximise our chances in every way we possibly can to find scum

today

.

I concur. Surely the town has lost most of its night power anyways.

I'd love RC to go first, but either of them are fine too.

Yeah, that's no problem. I'm just a 'nilla townie.

A variety of corn that when heated explodes from the kernel. It's popular with salt or icing sugar, so much so it's the cornerstone snack of the cinematic industry.

---

rc, it's your turn pal.

Honestly I don't see how I should get any special choice for choosing who goes next just because I claimed. Either you agree with the massclaim or you don't (not you specifically, cruelty, I mean rhetorically). Anyone who wants to claim next is welcome to, imo. Ideally I'd just as soon have everyone claim.

[RedCoyote]

Yes, I saw your claim. I was saying that I'm not really interested in "popcorning" who goes next, because, imo, we all need to do it. Unless there was something you wanted me to address specifically?

[RedCoyote]

So I guess Nacho is sticking around then? If so, thanks! Thanks to Snow White for replacing, too!

Let me make a new post, gimme a few minutes.

[RedCoyote]

We're a firefighter. Each night we can protect somebody from being targeted by an Arsonist if there's one in the game. Basically an Arsonist doctor. My thoughts on an SK being in the game similarly align to my thoughts of an SK being in the game.

Assuming this claim is genuine (which I'm leaning towards yes), then I see no reason to doubt your thoughts, Ed.

This would be a good fake claim to make though, imo. With the way the setup is kind of playing out, this would be a perfect claim. Still, I don't think I'm willing to push that. Like I said earlier, I think Ed (incidentally, I'm not discounting your contributions, Ray, I just like to abbrevate names, lol) made me feel real good about him being town when he went analyzed the setup and how it relates to Vi. It could've been easy for him to just say, "hmmm... Hoopla seems real and look at the way RC is attacking her. He is probably scum". When he took the time to explain why it was Hoopla's claim was more believable than not, I thought that was definitely pro-town.

Like I've said before, I was pretty so-so on angel. Other players are giving me the business for calling one of angel's posts critical thinking, but that's what I truly thought it was. Wagon analysis is a great tool, and now, especially with AGar and Mindgamer's flips (remember: Mindgamer wasn't interested in lynching Quagmire and the Colonel (AGar's replacement) wasn't interested in the Quagmire lynch), I feel more justified in my predictions that the scum will be in the group of Faraday, cruelty, and Nacho (if not all of them).

Check it out:

Final Vote Count

Quagmire

(7)

Hoopla,

Cyberbob

, cruelty,

AGar

, Flareonage, RedCoyote, hitogoroshi

The Tracker (2)

Nachomamma8, angelmouse

Flareonage (1)

The Tracker

Cyberbob

(1)

Quagmire

angelmouse (1)

Mindgamer

Not Voting (0)

With twelve alive, it took seven to guillotine. Quagmire has 'achieved' a majority.

(flip colors added)

Hoopla and Cyberbob were both emotionally (or at least politically) interested in lynching Quagmire. These are reasonable disagreements, but not necessarily scummy ones. Me and hito were both "forced" on the wagon due to time contraints and (at least on my part) the unwillingness to lynch The Tracker.

AGar has since flipped town, but as I noted above, the person he replaced was not interested in lynching Quagmire. Seeing as how the Colonel played for the majority of Day 1, this is important to consider.

Who does that leave? cruelty and Faraday.

I mean, talk about a smoking gun. You're going to tell me the entire town lynched Quagmire? No, I don't buy it. I won't buy it. cruelty and Faraday have to say that's the case, they've both supported one another throughout Day 2 (unless one of them has a revelation now that I've made this post that is).

Even if it isn't both cruelty and Faraday, I will eat my hat if at least one of them isn't scum. And I'd bet you dollars to donuts that hito is a second scum (if cruelty and Faraday aren't scum together).

If I have any say at all in today's lynch, it will be cruelty or Faraday. Nacho or hito would be a very, very distant third and fourth.

[

Town

]------Hoops-SW---Ed--hito---[

∙

]---Nacho---------Faraday-cruelty--[

Scum

]

I essentially agree with hito's post 624, he may have more confidence in me then I have in him (although I'm still comfortable with him as town, comfortable enough to lynch three other people before him), and he may be giving Faraday a little too much credit for my taste, but I think we see completely eye to eye on cruelty. I'm pretty sure Ed feels at least similar, although I'd like to hear more from him. I'd also like to hear SW's claim when she gets her bearings.

Other than that though, I don't need to be told twice to join the cruelty wagon. I just hope SW, Hoopla, and possibly Nacho see the case against him as clearly as me and hito do.

[RedCoyote]

Uh, no. I'm not going to tell you the entire town lynched Quagmire. You're scum, remember? Also your reluctance was made clear, but that didn't stop you voting him.

Come on, Faraday! Talk about forcing out an argument. You know darn well that if I hadn't have joined the Quagmire lynch that either someone else would've (there was, like, 20 hours left in the day?), or we would've gotten a no lynch. I was in no way unclear about my position, and in fact had made that reluctance very clear throughout D1.

So I'm the only scum on that wagon? Or, wait, it was possibly me and hito. Because Flare's Quagmire vote was just so darned townie:

I don't think [Quagmire's policy] benefits him or hurts him. It's neutral and we're wasting our time focusing on him. Where's all the real scum hunting? We have pages of why Quagmire should be executed.

Unvote

VOTE: The tracker

Where has he been? It's about time he got in here and said something instead of hiding behind the whole Quagmire thing

I agree completely with redcoyote. This Quagmire thing is wasting our time. We are not gonna learn anything and D2 is gonna end up being our real D1

I just really don't like this Quagmire thing. it's a smokescreen, distracting us from scum hunting. Everyone who is voting for Quagmire hasn't really been scum hunting. They just want Quagmire gone because of his playing style. There may be some truth to what they are saying but scum could easily be using that situation to their advantage.

Unvote

VOTE: Quagmire

If we have a serial killer then we need the trackers help, Quagmire is the only other person that will have a majority by the time the deadline hits

My point is the argument that, "Well, you may not have liked it, but you still did it" cuts two ways. Flare was just as blantant about it.

[RedCoyote]

I'm not asking you to, but surely you must acknowledge Flare for being more two-sided than I was.

I would say my reluctance to lynching Quagmire was null, but my point was more focused on the idea that I could reason everyone's vote on that wagon except for Flare and cruelty.

[RedCoyote]

And I'm not claiming that I was two-sided, or flip flopping, in anyway.

[RedCoyote]

FYI im vanilla.

[RedCoyote]

Is Tracker-VT lying about his role a big enough possibility that we don't lynch Snow White?

It seems like such a weird role to fake though, that's what really grinds my gears. I'm so hesistant to do anything at this point, because I think this may leave me starting from scratch. If SW is lying, then that's a serious blow to both Hoopla and Ed. I mean, Hoopla, Ed, and The Tracker were all kind of coming to bat for one another, pushing this idea that the setup is revolving around the idea of an investigative role minus the usage of it.

---

Also, I just realized that RC asked for SW's 'claim' and I never raised an eyebrow as to why. But come to think of it, asking for a claim makes it LOOK like that slot never claimed, which is useful in this situation to try to catch scum.

Nicely played, sir.

Thanks! I shouldn't take complete credit though. The reason my claim seemed casual and honest is probably because it was. I

almost

followed the post up, re-reading it an hour later or so, with a clarification that mistakenly hadn't realized that The Tracker already claim. I just left it there instead on the off chance something like this would happen.

---

incidentally does snow white's claim make anyone else think twice about ed's and hoopla's?

Yes, absolutely.

---

@Hoopla. Id start re-evaluating yoour reads now.

A little WIFOM never hurt anybody.

[RedCoyote]

Crap

[RedCoyote]

Scum need to pull out the:

And all the townies need to pull out the:

[RedCoyote]

My losing streak continues at five.

I'm just going to start getting everyone to lynch me D1 from here on out.



gg unless something very strange is going down.

[RedCoyote]

Yeah, I don't think I would've lynched Hoopla, and probably not hito either. SW, don't worry too much because I sincerely doubt we would've pulled this one off anyways. XD

gg scums

[RedCoyote]

No worries, Hoops. It kept me from really refocusing on Flare anyways, lol.

Ugh, that was a tough D1 though. Good Mafia + Dead PRs = Always going to be tough. I liked the setup though; I think it's pretty fair. You have to remember that the town was hit with two major curveballs that likely wouldn't be replicated in a normal scenario. SW's claim and Quagmire's policy was a really painful cocktail, especially when they were both important power roles. We win or lose as a team though, so no one person really sank our town I don't think.

[RedCoyote]

RedCoyote - He is a logical, talented player

*blush*