Pick Your Power - Game. Set. Match.
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Seacore Mafia Scum
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Cobalt trollface.jpg
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just wanna take the chance to point out that I had a perfect meta read on both DGB and Xyl here.Cobalt wrote:logical process for xyl scum
a)DGB and Xyl do not share an alignment
(strong argument throughout game)
(could be distancing BUT
(DGB has well-known meta dislike of distancing)
b) town read on DGB
(no floundering on calling her opponents scum)
(cases aren't too insane)
(silly scumpair theories are par for the course)
c) therefore xyl is scum
d) supporting evidence:
(Xyl has a well-known hatred of antitown players)
(Lurkers fall under this category)
(Xyl has not persued lurkers at all this game)
(Xyl policy-lynches lurkers as town)
(Xyl is not policy lynching lurkers)
(Xyl is scum)
<---- champ tier.hatersgonnahate.gif-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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DGB, you keep moving me up...
according to the output picture, i have just a slim chance of being red scum. Then it becomes this...
and now it's this.DrippingGoofball wrote:Pomegranate/DeathNote
Faraday
BloodCovenent
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare
DrippingGoofball wrote: High chance of red here:
BloodCovenent
Benmage
Faraday
TonyMontana
Dramonic-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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And I on Xyl. He was obv full of baloney.Cobalt wrote:just wanna take the chance to point out that I had a perfect meta read on both DGB and Xyl here.
<---- champ tier.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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Cobalt trollface.jpg
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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No I said you can hardly be blue scum at all. You can be red scum, though. And the above I believe is including Seacore and Cobalt as town.BloodCovenent wrote:DGB, you keep moving me up...
according to the output picture, i have just a slim chance of being red scum. Then it becomes this...
and now it's this.DrippingGoofball wrote:Pomegranate/DeathNote
Faraday
BloodCovenent
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare
DrippingGoofball wrote: High chance of red here:
BloodCovenent
Benmage
Faraday
TonyMontana
Dramonic
It's interesting that you worry more about your own standing than finding the scum in the lot.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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<3Cobalt wrote:^5Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.DrippingGoofball wrote:INPUT:
VERY HIGH likelyhood of RED
Dramonic
budja
Farside22
SerialClergyman
Seacore
NOT BLUE SCUM A - LIKE, IMPOSSIBLE
Budja
BloodCovenent
HIGH LIKELiHOOD OF RED
chamber
Benmage
Seacore
SerialClergyman
FishytheFish
Faraday
Farside22
Cobalt
Dramonic
Cruciare
BloodCovenent
MEDIUM likelihood of red
Pomegranate/DeathNote, Seacore
SerialClergyman
budja
Faraday
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare
NEGATIVE probability of blue
Cruciare
Faraday
HIGH for red
SerialClergyman
DeathNote
Farside22
Cobalt
TonyMontana
Vaya
chamber
Benmage
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check
Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?
I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?-
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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There's something way too easy about that claim. I see no reason not to trust it though, I'm in after Xyl gets his say.
DGB, some of your conclusions come from a scary place. You've got me in the likliest category for blue scum despite starting the wagon on devotress both days and riding it through to a lynch on D2. I wasn't on the SCoug lynch or the elvis wagon. If you'd come out and said likely to be red scum then I'd shrug and say yeah, look, that's just how it happened. But likely to be blue scum after fingering one of their members and being the first to vote them both days, never waivering on the second day when they're lynched? Zzzz.I'm old now.-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.BloodCovenent wrote:ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check
Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?
I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?
These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.
I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."
Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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Seacore Mafia Scum
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Sorry, what's too easy about the claim?
I watched Elvis N1 as well, but got nothing.
I've personally ignored DGB's pages of data/interpretation/conclussions because
a) I'm not going to check that she's being consistent with her data (and some people have already suggested she isn't)
b) As SC has pointed out, it doesn't take into account vital information
c) It assumes everybody (particularly scum) do the best (and in the case of scum, coordinated) voting strategies.
I'm not saying not to post it, I'm not saying it may not lead you to scum, I'm saying I'm not going to use it because I don't like it and I don't feel it'll lead me to scum.-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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Most of this is what i was going to say DGB, but seacore beat me to it.Seacore wrote:
I've personally ignored DGB's pages of data/interpretation/conclussions because
a) I'm not going to check that she's being consistent with her data (and some people have already suggested she isn't)
b) As SC has pointed out, it doesn't take into account vital information
c) It assumes everybody (particularly scum) do the best (and in the case of scum, coordinated) voting strategies.
I'm not saying not to post it, I'm not saying it may not lead you to scum, I'm saying I'm not going to use it because I don't like it and I don't feel it'll lead me to scum.-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?DrippingGoofball wrote:
Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.BloodCovenent wrote:ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check
Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?
I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?
These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.
I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."
Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.
Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.-
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Seacore Mafia Scum
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- Location: Australia, UCT+10
It is not scummy to defend yourself.DrippingGoofball wrote:
Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.
It is particularly not scummy to see a gaping whole in somebody's theory which is highlighted because you know you're town.
It's also not scummy to first question the theory for half a few posts before then taking up the scum hunting, particularly when we already have a lynch for today.-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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also, why weren't those lists the same? they had a large variety of players on one, but not the other.BloodCovenent wrote:
but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?DrippingGoofball wrote:
Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.BloodCovenent wrote:ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check
Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?
I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?
These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.
I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."
Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.
Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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I tell you what. This is the first time I do these analyses with so many known scums, and so few known townies.SerialClergyman wrote:DGB, some of your conclusions come from a scary place. You've got me in the likliest category for blue scum despite starting the wagon on devotress both days and riding it through to a lynch on D2. I wasn't on the SCoug lynch or the elvis wagon. If you'd come out and said likely to be red scum then I'd shrug and say yeah, look, that's just how it happened. But likely to be blue scum after fingering one of their members and being the first to vote them both days, never waivering on the second day when they're lynched? Zzzz.
I'm only looking at raw data. I'm not looking at behavior at all.
It's one piece of the puzzle. Not the whole picture.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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That's because each list is derived from a specific vote count. I look at one count, and from that count, I assess, say, that certain players on that one wagon have a high prob of being red scum.BloodCovenent wrote:but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?
Then I look at another wagon, independent of the first one. A different list of players may have high probability of being red scum.
So if I look at 6 wagons, I'll have 6 lists. If you're on all 6 lists, it looks worse than being on, say, 3 lists.
Also, for some wagons, I realize that I can only give light probability of scum on the list, and I take that into consideration.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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Given all the effort and hard work I put into this, this is a pretty painfulBloodCovenent wrote:Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.ad hom.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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But why do you take one VC and use it for determining a high chance of being red scumDrippingGoofball wrote:
That's because each list is derived from a specific vote count. I look at one count, and from that count, I assess, say, that certain players on that one wagon have a high prob of being red scum.BloodCovenent wrote:but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?
Then I look at another wagon, independent of the first one. A different list of players may have high probability of being red scum.
So if I look at 6 wagons, I'll have 6 lists. If you're on all 6 lists, it looks worse than being on, say, 3 lists.
Also, for some wagons, I realize that I can only give light probability of scum on the list, and I take that into consideration.
then another VC for a medium chance of being red scum
Then one VC for a high chance of being blue scum
that is just poor analysis.
I noticed that you had 10+ vote counts, why weren't there 10+ lists? why did you pick and choose?
how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.
Glowing Red Hot Chipotle Hand of Suspicion: DGB-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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Some are redundant.BloodCovenent wrote:I noticed that you had 10+ vote counts, why weren't there 10+ lists? why did you pick and choose?
I know my alignment. If you don't want to believe it, do your own analysis. I'm doing it to find scum for myself taking into consideration how I know scum to behave from my numerous stints on scum teams. I'm merely showing my calculations.BloodCovenent wrote:how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.
Yeah, you're like Xyl. You know I'm town but you're pretending that I'm scummy, when I'm bloody well not.BloodCovenent wrote:Glowing Red Hot Chipotle Hand of Suspicion: DGB
Sounds like I caught a live one.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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Cobalt trollface.jpg
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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It needs the addition of player's responses, behaviors, etc. I acknowledge this fully. And look at BloodCovenent! Sometimes the analysis catches scum in the most delicious, unexpected manner.SerialClergyman wrote:Fair enough. I'm suggesting that perhaps it needs a little refinementParaphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet-
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BloodCovenent Mafia Scum
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just because you did analysis, doesn't make you town, not giving analysis on yourself, IMO is scummy as well.DrippingGoofball wrote:
I know my alignment. If you don't want to believe it, do your own analysis. I'm doing it to find scum for myself taking into consideration how I know scum to behave from my numerous stints on scum teams. I'm merely showing my calculations.BloodCovenent wrote:how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.-
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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HE'S RIPE FOR THE HAMMER!Cobalt wrote:ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS
LYNCH XYL ALREADY, HE IS SCUM
Also, Vaya is prob scum that has given up completely. How's that for behavioral analysis.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
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