Pick Your Power - Game. Set. Match.

[Seacore]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 9

BloodCovenent

- 1 - chamber - (L-8)

budja

- 1 - BloodCovenent - (L-8)

drippinggoofball

- 2 - Xylthixlm, Farside22 - (L-7)

Xylthixlm

- 7 - Cobalt, Seacore, Benmage, FishytheFish, Faraday, drippinggoofball, TonyMontana - (L-2)

Players not voting: budja, Cruciare, DeathNote, Dramonic, SerialClergyman, Vaya

Thats a fair call. Based on my claim anyway.

A lot of people were reading me (accurately) as town during day 1 and 2. But I agree that my claim doesn't make me town.
Even when my claim proves true (or very likely true) with Xyl's death.

[Cobalt]

logical process for xyl scum
a)DGB and Xyl do not share an alignment
(strong argument throughout game)
(could be distancing BUT
(DGB has well-known meta dislike of distancing)

b) town read on DGB
(no floundering on calling her opponents scum)
(cases aren't too insane)
(silly scumpair theories are par for the course)

c) therefore xyl is scum

d) supporting evidence:
(Xyl has a well-known hatred of antitown players)
(Lurkers fall under this category)
(Xyl has not persued lurkers at all this game)
(Xyl policy-lynches lurkers as town)
(Xyl is not policy lynching lurkers)
(Xyl is scum)

just wanna take the chance to point out that I had a perfect meta read on both DGB and Xyl here.
<---- champ tier.

[BloodCovenent]

DGB, you keep moving me up...

according to the output picture, i have just a slim chance of being red scum. Then it becomes this...

Pomegranate/DeathNote
Faraday
BloodCovenent
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare

and now it's this.

High chance of red here:

BloodCovenent
Benmage
Faraday
TonyMontana
Dramonic

[DrippingGoofball]

just wanna take the chance to point out that I had a perfect meta read on both DGB and Xyl here.
<---- champ tier.

And I on Xyl. He was obv full of baloney.

[Cobalt]

^5

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, you keep moving me up...

according to the output picture, i have just a slim chance of being red scum. Then it becomes this...

Pomegranate/DeathNote
Faraday
BloodCovenent
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare

and now it's this.

High chance of red here:

BloodCovenent
Benmage
Faraday
TonyMontana
Dramonic

No I said you can hardly be blue scum at all. You can be red scum, though. And the above I believe is including Seacore and Cobalt as town.

It's interesting that you worry more about your own standing than finding the scum in the lot.

[DrippingGoofball]

^5

<3

[BloodCovenent]

INPUT:

VERY HIGH likelyhood of RED
Dramonic
budja
Farside22
SerialClergyman
Seacore

NOT BLUE SCUM A - LIKE, IMPOSSIBLE
Budja
BloodCovenent


HIGH LIKELiHOOD OF RED
chamber
Benmage
Seacore
SerialClergyman
FishytheFish
Faraday
Farside22
Cobalt
Dramonic
Cruciare
BloodCovenent

MEDIUM likelihood of red
Pomegranate/DeathNote, Seacore
SerialClergyman
budja
Faraday
Dramonic
chamber
Cruciare

NEGATIVE probability of blue
Cruciare
Faraday


HIGH for red
SerialClergyman
DeathNote
Farside22
Cobalt
TonyMontana
Vaya
chamber
Benmage

ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check

Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?

I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?

[SerialClergyman]

There's something way too easy about that claim. I see no reason not to trust it though, I'm in after Xyl gets his say.

DGB, some of your conclusions come from a scary place. You've got me in the likliest category for blue scum despite starting the wagon on devotress both days and riding it through to a lynch on D2. I wasn't on the SCoug lynch or the elvis wagon. If you'd come out and said likely to be red scum then I'd shrug and say yeah, look, that's just how it happened. But likely to be blue scum after fingering one of their members and being the first to vote them both days, never waivering on the second day when they're lynched? Zzzz.

[DrippingGoofball]

ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check

Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?

I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?

Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.

These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.

I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."

Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.

[Seacore]

Sorry, what's too easy about the claim?

I watched Elvis N1 as well, but got nothing.

I've personally ignored DGB's pages of data/interpretation/conclussions because

a) I'm not going to check that she's being consistent with her data (and some people have already suggested she isn't)

b) As SC has pointed out, it doesn't take into account vital information

c) It assumes everybody (particularly scum) do the best (and in the case of scum, coordinated) voting strategies.

I'm not saying not to post it, I'm not saying it may not lead you to scum, I'm saying I'm not going to use it because I don't like it and I don't feel it'll lead me to scum.

[BloodCovenent]

I've personally ignored DGB's pages of data/interpretation/conclussions because

a) I'm not going to check that she's being consistent with her data (and some people have already suggested she isn't)

b) As SC has pointed out, it doesn't take into account vital information

c) It assumes everybody (particularly scum) do the best (and in the case of scum, coordinated) voting strategies.

I'm not saying not to post it, I'm not saying it may not lead you to scum, I'm saying I'm not going to use it because I don't like it and I don't feel it'll lead me to scum.

Most of this is what i was going to say DGB, but seacore beat me to it.

[BloodCovenent]

ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check

Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?

I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?

Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.

These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.

I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."

Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.

but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?

Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.

[Seacore]

Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.

It is not scummy to defend yourself.

It is particularly not scummy to see a gaping whole in somebody's theory which is highlighted because you know you're town.

It's also not scummy to first question the theory for half a few posts before then taking up the scum hunting, particularly when we already have a lynch for today.

[BloodCovenent]

ok, so here is basically what i don't get DGB. I pulled out ONLY paragraphs that dealt with red.
I do not have a very high likely hood of being red. - check
I am not blue scum - check
I have a high chance of being red scum - check
I do not have a medium chance of being red scum - check

Negative probability of blue - wouldn't I qualify?

I do not have a high chance of being red scum - che... wait... what? you just said that I did though?
Why aren't I on the medium if i'm on one of the high chances of being red scum?

Aw, maybe this was unclear to you.

These are ADDITIVE. Not mutually exclusive/inclusive.

I lightened the shading of one of your blue squares to account for the "negative probability."

Against, thanks again for letting us know that you're scum by only worrying about yourself.

but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?

Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.

also, why weren't those lists the same? they had a large variety of players on one, but not the other.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, some of your conclusions come from a scary place. You've got me in the likliest category for blue scum despite starting the wagon on devotress both days and riding it through to a lynch on D2. I wasn't on the SCoug lynch or the elvis wagon. If you'd come out and said likely to be red scum then I'd shrug and say yeah, look, that's just how it happened. But likely to be blue scum after fingering one of their members and being the first to vote them both days, never waivering on the second day when they're lynched? Zzzz.

I tell you what. This is the first time I do these analyses with so many known scums, and so few known townies.

I'm only looking at raw data. I'm not looking at behavior at all.

It's one piece of the puzzle. Not the whole picture.

[DrippingGoofball]

but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?

That's because each list is derived from a specific vote count. I look at one count, and from that count, I assess, say, that certain players on that one wagon have a high prob of being red scum.

Then I look at another wagon, independent of the first one. A different list of players may have high probability of being red scum.

So if I look at 6 wagons, I'll have 6 lists. If you're on all 6 lists, it looks worse than being on, say, 3 lists.

Also, for some wagons, I realize that I can only give light probability of scum on the list, and I take that into consideration.

[DrippingGoofball]

Faild scum hunting, GG goofball.

Given all the effort and hard work I put into this, this is a pretty painful

ad hom

.

[SerialClergyman]

Fair enough. I'm suggesting that perhaps it needs a little refinement

[BloodCovenent]

but why wasn't I on BOTH of the lists for having a HIGH chance of being red scum?

That's because each list is derived from a specific vote count. I look at one count, and from that count, I assess, say, that certain players on that one wagon have a high prob of being red scum.

Then I look at another wagon, independent of the first one. A different list of players may have high probability of being red scum.

So if I look at 6 wagons, I'll have 6 lists. If you're on all 6 lists, it looks worse than being on, say, 3 lists.

Also, for some wagons, I realize that I can only give light probability of scum on the list, and I take that into consideration.

But why do you take one VC and use it for determining a high chance of being red scum
then another VC for a medium chance of being red scum
Then one VC for a high chance of being blue scum
that is just poor analysis.

I noticed that you had 10+ vote counts, why weren't there 10+ lists? why did you pick and choose?

how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.

Glowing Red Hot Chipotle Hand of Suspicion: DGB

[DrippingGoofball]

I noticed that you had 10+ vote counts, why weren't there 10+ lists? why did you pick and choose?

Some are redundant.

how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.

I know my alignment. If you don't want to believe it, do your own analysis. I'm doing it to find scum for myself taking into consideration how I know scum to behave from my numerous stints on scum teams. I'm merely showing my calculations.

Glowing Red Hot Chipotle Hand of Suspicion: DGB

Yeah, you're like Xyl. You know I'm town but you're pretending that I'm scummy, when I'm bloody well not.

Sounds like I caught a live one.

[Cobalt]

ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS
LYNCH XYL ALREADY, HE IS SCUM

[DrippingGoofball]

Fair enough. I'm suggesting that perhaps it needs a little refinement

It needs the addition of player's responses, behaviors, etc. I acknowledge this fully. And look at BloodCovenent! Sometimes the analysis catches scum in the most delicious, unexpected manner.

[BloodCovenent]

how come you were not on ANY of those lists? Surely you used a VC with you on it... wait.. you would have to be there somewhere.

I know my alignment. If you don't want to believe it, do your own analysis. I'm doing it to find scum for myself taking into consideration how I know scum to behave from my numerous stints on scum teams. I'm merely showing my calculations.

just because you did analysis, doesn't make you town, not giving analysis on yourself, IMO is scummy as well.

[DrippingGoofball]

ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS
LYNCH XYL ALREADY, HE IS SCUM

HE'S RIPE FOR THE HAMMER!

Also, Vaya is prob scum that has given up completely. How's that for behavioral analysis.