Mini 902: Pick your Poison 4 (Game over!)

[Sajin]

Ok everyone needs to answer both of the following questions:

1- If you were mafia, what 3 roles would you have given town? Why?

2- what roles would be best to select for mafia, why?

My answers are: Vig, Weak doctor, Masoniser.

and

Godfather Vengeful.

I will save the reasoning for these choices until more people have weighed in.

[Sajin]

My analysis:

A Vengeful is not as powerful as some imply it to be. It has no effect if its the last mafia nor does it have any effect if nightkilled by a vig assuming we have one. Lets examine:

Assuming a lynch every day and one successful kill every day it would not cause the loss of any lynches because we are starting at an even number. Therefore the situation Yoss described would unlikely come up (only with a weak doctor early death if we have one, and even then we could get a successful protection). If we do have a vigilante then the vengeful can be killed at night and be neutralized that way. 1st choice and an easy one at that.

A Rolecop is INCREDIBLY powerful especially this day version. While scum may know what the power roles are, they do not know WHO they are. If this role was selected I would expect power role deaths to happen quickly. The only way I would pick this would be if we think scum were stupid and gave us a double doctor combo. (If this was true then optimum play would be to mass claim to get the doctors on each other or force scum to CC a claim. 2 doctors that can keep each other alive would be game breaking and would likely win the game). 4th choice.

A roleblocker is a generic answer to all 5 roles. The existence of a roleblocker would make the informational gain from a weak doctor useless and it would be effective on the other 4 roles. Just no. Last choice.

Janitor is quite strong if used well to compliment a fakeclaim informational claim or to cause doubt on someone else's. I would rather stay away from it but it would be my 3rd choice. (assuming it can hide either alignment, it would be an easily first picked choice if it could only hide one alignment)

Godfather is much less powerful if it is known it is in the game for certainty and in this format it would be. Therefore this seems like a solid choice. Weak doctor can still find a godfather, etc. 2nd choice.

[Sajin]

Doctor wrote:
You are a doctor. Every night you can give me the name of a player you want to protect; they will be immune to

all kills

that night. You may not protect yourself.


Weak doctor wrote:
You a weak doctor. Every night you can give me the name of a player you want to protect; they will be immune to

all kills

that night. If you protect a member of the mafia, you will be killed that night. You may not protect yourself.

[Sajin]

Also Yos you did not factor in the open nature of the setup in adition to the day aspect:

We know there is 3 town power roles. No more. No less.

This means that should any make it to a end game scenario, town's lynch percentages go WAY UP due to scum needing to CC, claim a 4th role and thus CC or let them be cleared. For instance, 1 town power role in 3 man makes lynch percentages at least 50/50 (+reads).

A rolecop would negate the benefit the nature of the openess of the setup gives us by ensuring the above is not allowed to happen. Saying a rolecops functionality does not matter is ludicrous.

The benefit of any town role goes beyond its functionality. Its CC or be cleared role as well.

Vengeful is much less harmful then a rolecop is.

Chamber and porochaz, care to state some opinions here?

[Sajin]

I really dislike how most of the rolecop voters completely ignore and do not comment on my reasons for my aversion to the rolecop role.

This being an open setup, if even 1 role survives till 3 man LY/LO town has a 50/50 shot of winning due to the open nature of this setup.

Tell me why that is not worth something?

[Sajin]

Rolecop could easily get power roles wagoned and/or nightkilled.

What are the chances that they would not rolecop 2 vanillas before endgame? Much lower then random.

[Sajin]

At least Yos addressed my points. I felt like I was being ignored all day about my points about why a rolecop was a bad idea. No one even addressed my last win percentage issue with the rolecop.

Chamber, Porochaz, Yos (kinda), and Malpascp still need to pick three roles they would have given the town as scum.

MOD:Prod/Replace Malpascp please (has yet to post in thread).

I have thoughts on the choices, but I'm going to hold them for those who haven't contributed yet.

@RBT: You never posted your thoughts at all. This is a "trying to look town post" by asking for prods while not providing any substance. What substance do you think you have provided?

Vote: RBT

[Sajin]

EBWOP: Of course no two people should protect the same person.

What is the reasoning for this?



@Yossiran- a vengeful would kill a protown person 66 percent of the time? Uh....

1- You brought up doctors protections as a reason to not have one, and then you do not factor them in when your talking about it again.

You do not consider Vig kills nor the fact that 2 kills happening on the same night (when town knows its about to happen too!) increases chances for a successful protection as well.

Your clearly using the facts that benefit the one small point your trying to make at that particular moment. I am debating whether or not I should find this a scum tell for you or if it is just shrewd arguing. Care to enlighten me?

[Sajin]

EBWOP: Of course no two people should protect the same person.

What is the reasoning for this?



@Yossiran- a vengeful would kill a protown person 66 percent of the time? Uh....

1- You brought up doctors protections as a reason to not have one, and then you do not factor them in when your talking about it again.

You do not consider Vig kills nor the fact that 2 kills happening on the same night (when town knows its about to happen too!) increases chances for a successful protection as well.

Your clearly using the facts that benefit the one small point your trying to make at that particular moment. I am debating whether or not I should find this a scum tell for you or if it is just shrewd arguing. Care to enlighten me?

66% of the time just meant that there was a 1/3 chance that the vengeful scum would be the last scum person left, and therefore wouldn't get a kill.

It's not really that likely that he gets either vigged or doc protected; the odds of a doc or weak doc stopping any given kill is quite small (There has to be a doc who's still alive at that point, the scum has to not target the doc, and then if there's, say, 9 people left it's still just a 1/8 chance) and the idea of counting on a vig that might not even exist to kill one specific scum before we lynch that scum sounds like a really bad idea to me. But you're right, there is a chance he tries to kill and fails, or gets vigged, and that actually lowers the odds a bit. (not much, IMHO, but a bit)

Of course, there's also a chance he intentionally gets himself lynched at a key moment, doing a "jester strike" to get himself lynched instead of a scumbuddy or in lynch or lose, which then raises the odds again.

I'm really not sure why we're still arguing about this, considering that everyone already agreed that giving the scum vengeful was a bad idea and we already made our decision. Also, I'm not sure why you're grilling me on this when I've already explained all of this in exhausting detail back when we actually WERE making this decision. If you thought vengeful was a good idea, you should have made that argument BEFORE we picked the power roles, not now.

You completely dodged the point of my question.

Let me restate it so you do not do so again:

I am accusing you of manipulating the facts in order to get the town to vote a certain role.

To argue against the vengeful (as pointed out in the above mentioned paraphrase), you do not factor in doc protections (nor vig killing the vengeful). Yet earlier one of the main points you posted against the vengeful was:

We could get on "odd numbers" with:

-A vig
-A doctor
-or A weak doctor.

If a town role prevents a kill, or a vig makes a kill, then we end up on odd numbers.

The above shows that you thought town power roles could mitigate the effect a vengeful would have. In one case you used the existence of power roles to support your role choice and then later you do not factor them in.

I am saying that your changing your arguments about the potential effects of roles to benefit your stance. Do you agree or disagree?

unvote; Vote: Yosarian

Additionally:

I'm really not sure why we're still arguing about this, considering that everyone already agreed that giving the scum vengeful was a bad idea and we already made our decision. Also, I'm not sure why you're grilling me on this when I've already explained all of this in exhausting detail back when we actually WERE making this decision. If you thought vengeful was a good idea, you should have made that argument BEFORE we picked the power roles, not now.

Why should we not use that discussion now? Its all a mute point? No. I find your manipulation of the role choice scummy sir. You say everyone was against the vengeful? I was arguing pro vengeful in almost every post.

@Farsides direct questions. I did not post my thoughts in order to gauge everyone else's responses. I know I had reasoned out what choices I would have made as scum in addition to what I wanted to see the scum get but I wanted to see others discuss those. Doing so helped my reads. I posted my thoughts shortly after.

In other theme games when I started discussion about theme mechanics everyone just blindly agrees and its completely unhelpful for reads. Controversy and the ability to compare and contrast differences helps in the long run.

2nd question is obvious that I had not read the GF PM close enough.

[Sajin]

@Yos- How can you disagree when you admit my point in the same post? Thats what you just did. Your a shrewd arguer though I will give you that.

You consider the effect and complications of other roles only when they benefited your chosen stance. You had already chosen what role you wanted and were trying to campaign to get it. You were arguing for the result you wanted and not the reason why it was beneficial/harmful and it is showing through to me.

I campaigned on vengeful all day and your just now reading that?

And now your strongarming me for RBT because I saw a horrible response from you?

You are the one who jumped on right after me, declared me scum and yet have not moved your vote.

Not wanting to apply pressure in multiple places so that when you flip its harder to find your partners perhaps?

[Sajin]

.

Unvote vote farside22

For the record, I agree that farside isn't really making any sense here, but I think she's probably town.

Can I get some more detail on this? Do you think she often talks kind of incoherently (no offence) as town? Do you think it is in fact a town-tell? Or do you get a townie vibe from her posts in spite of her incomprehensible position on chamber?

It dosn't really have anything to do with her position on charter. At this point, I'd say it's a general vibe I get from her posts; willing to disagree with the majority on issues, and yet willing to listen to reason and be flexible at the same time; that's usually a combination I see more often from townies then from scum. Scum usually either follow the crowd, or else they stake out a position they think they can defend and never budge from it.

Would you describe the way you responded to everyone day 1 like the way you talk in this post?

I would not. You attacked everything in sight that was not in agreement with your perfered choices.

[Sajin]

... commited his ultimate scumtell, not answering questions.

So wait, I'm scummy for it, but there's NOTHING wrong with chamber for it? Double-standard much?

Also, I never post scumminess report cards. Thanks for playing though.

You were incredibly frustrated in Final Fantasy mafia when I lead a lynch on you day 1. Here your not frustrated, your being obstinate. Why?

And I would like you to post your scum suspects as well. So lets see....thats 3 or 4 people that have asked now by my rough counts. Its one thing to not want to post them when your not suspected by anyone. Its another thing to totally be unwilling to help in case of imminent death by lynch and its generally a scum tell as scum do not want to out potential partners on the lynch bed. Do you agree with this assertion?





@Yoss- My reasoning for you being scum actually has less to do with your actual play and more with your attitude. You are coming off to me just like you did in WoT mafia, lashing out at all potential attackers and not like you did in California Trilogy 3 where you carefully answered anyone's concerns without the counter attack.

[Sajin]

You were incredibly frustrated in Final Fantasy mafia when I lead a lynch on you day 1. Here your not frustrated, your being obstinate. Why?

@Yoss- My reasoning for you being scum actually has less to do with your actual play and more with your attitude. You are coming off to me just like you did in WoT mafia, lashing out at all potential attackers and not like you did in California Trilogy 3 where you carefully answered anyone's concerns without the counter attack.

I agree with Yos in that these two points sound contradictory (although I can't find final fantasy to find out if Yos was in fact mafia in that game).

The first quote applies to the person I quoted (RBT) not to Yos.

[Sajin]

It has nothing to do with scumminess, it has everything to do with using a useless playstyle for communication and overall effectiveness. (See also, lynching people who only have few and far between posts, and they're almost always content free.)

Except Chamber has produced a lot of content, and I think his playstyle has been quite useful and effective in scumhunting so far. So that explination is not going to fly.

How, Yos?

[Sajin]

Evidently my last post was eaten by the server. Meh.


I dislike the cop claim at L-1 but "no I am not claiming at L-2". Especially considering the timing. Town in this circumstance has effectively wasted the lynch...for what? Why not do it earlier? I can only think of scummy motivations here.

I do not believe it.

Unvote; Vote: RBT

[Sajin]

@Yos- I like your crumbs sir. I wish you could of left more. I suppose the rolecop was the better choice but that is because it was lynched day 1 (which, go figure, is something neither of us argued). But no you did not win that argument, you were just adept at skirting my points, which I in turn was frustrated at and found scummy.

I think Yos likely protected farside. This makes sense with his comments.

@Farside, can you give a town/scum list please?

@Leech- Why do you think those lists have anything to do with alignment? Also, why do you call it hypo roleclaim? Furthermore, I really dislike this comment:

One thing we need to consider before damning all the people that Yos thought was town, is the fact that we may have a Vig in this game. RBT claimed cop before dying, so there probably isn't a cop in this game. So all that leaves is Doc/Vig. The second death isn't necessarily due to Yos protecting scum. I don't think there is a Vig in the game, but it is possible.

You found it necessary to essentially scream "not vig" for what reason exactly? I do not really see this post being made from town. You really want us to deny the input of an informational role here? Why?

@Scot- Any vig should not claim. Zero reason to. What is the benefit of that considering this is a open setup? You also screamed not vig.....bleh.

[Sajin]

@Scot- Any vig should not claim. Zero reason to. What is the benefit of that considering this is a open setup? You also screamed not vig.....bleh.

Um, if there is a vig, and the vig killed yos/elliberth, then yes he should claim. First, it gives us a confirmed town basically. Second, I'll feel much more confident lynching farside knowing that Yos did die from protecting someone.

Your last statement would require everyone claiming vig or not vig. That is a bad idea.

A Vig exists: Then we have 2 town directed kills each cycle. No need to have the vig claim and die. The benefit of the vig living outweighs the harm of not using this information. Conclusion: lynch off breadcrumbs and vig can confirm themselves by killing this cycle.

A Vig does not exist: Then we should lynch off of Yos' breadcrumbs.

Side note: The other viable argument is to wait a day and let everyone see whether or not there is 2 night kills. However, I would prefer not to do this as a vig generates an extra town directed death each cycle and thus I think the potential benefit outweighs the potential loss. But I do see the flipside.


@Leech- Me wanting to cut people off from claiming/insinuating not XXXX PR bugs you? and you insinuate I am rolefishing when it is you asking a role to claim if they acted in such a way? Yep that makes total sense. I made the statement to make sure everyone is careful. If I was scum, would it not be more effective to let such comments continue? The correct play is to get everyone more mindful of the harm these comments cause. Disagree?

Any PR in 3 man endgame makes LY/LO 50/50 or better because of the open nature of the game. Because of that fact, the benefits of having a claim now are absolutely nullified. Disagree?

[Sajin]

@Scot- Can you reply to this? I know I did not ask this one directly to you, but I am curious what your thoughts about it are:

Any PR in 3 man endgame makes LY/LO 50/50 or better because of the open nature of the game. Because of that fact, the benefits of having a claim now are absolutely nullified. Disagree?

[Sajin]

Proded. Apologies.

I hate it when there is someone infinitely more scummy than the person who is actually probably scum. Although that could be because farside has pretty much disappeared. Given up?

I gave a scum list that got ignored. Everyone talks of me as though I'm not here. I'm not scum but you have your mind dead set. If you want to ask me any questions feel free. I'm quiet happy with my vote at this time.

Who do you think Yos protected last night if not you? You have never directly answered the question.

(paraphrasing:)
Yos said the weak doc should breadcrumb.

He said you (farside) were obv town.

He said the doctor should protect people he thought was town and was against hypoclaiming.

Nothing you have said today contradicts the logic of those points. All you have offered is maybe he protected someone else without offering a reason why and repeating "I am not scum, I am not scum". Your case against cooldog is decent but I strongly dislike your approach to the breadcrumbed info.

Is it possible that it is wrong? Sure. But all the odds point to guilty and I am not going to let a smattering of Wifom get in the way of probably the most informed lynch we will have all game.

Vote: Farside

Reading non farside posts now to catch up.