Mini #893 - Dollhouse Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #925 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:52 pm

Post by elvis_knits »

The funny thing about the farside-reck business is that farside also made a dubious switch to starbuck, IMO.
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Post Post #926 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:54 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

farside22 wrote:
xRECKONERx wrote:Yeah, I couldn't decide if Starbuck was town or not. Then, when I looked at things in light of the flip, I was like, "Whoa. The passive defending thing looks a lot scummier now." I don't see what's wrong with that.
First you say it's based on DN flip. Then it's I don't know who to lynch between SC and SB.
Then you out and out say you think it's a scheme by SC but once the SB wagon goes you conviently go back with little to nothing said.

It's called wagoning for little to no reason.
Best I can tell is that I thought my "scheme" reasoning was a bit too much of a stretch, and Starbuck seemed more reasonable/logical.
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Post Post #927 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 2:13 pm

Post by CrashTextDummie »

My appologies, too tired for another one of those today.
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Post Post #928 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 2:15 pm

Post by farside22 »

elvis_knits wrote:The funny thing about the farside-reck business is that farside also made a dubious switch to starbuck, IMO.
Umm I never said anything about star till I went back that day with SC, so hush.
He blantly flip on his views from 1 post to the other.
Any other catty remark you wish to make that shows once again I see you not reading the game.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #929 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 3:26 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

This game has me really struggling at the moment. I think it's the high presence of scum + daytalking. That and the constant hatin'.

Why do people keep suspecting me but lynching people I push a case against?

Deathnote, SB and now Reck I've attacked only to have people like Messiah/CTD, Farside and reck (although obviously he's not self-voting) get on the wagon while also thinking I'm scum.

imprint/nolynch imo.
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Post Post #930 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 3:44 pm

Post by farside22 »

SerialClergyman wrote:This game has me really struggling at the moment. I think it's the high presence of scum + daytalking. That and the constant hatin'.

Why do people keep suspecting me but lynching people I push a case against?

Deathnote, SB and now Reck I've attacked only to have people like Messiah/CTD, Farside and reck (although obviously he's not self-voting) get on the wagon while also thinking I'm scum.

imprint/nolynch imo.
I'm still torn on you. Your SB push and your desire to imprint EK and yourself still doesn't make me feel good about you.

Why do people ignore obvious scum moves that people do that I show with quotes?
*goes back to corner*
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #931 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 3:46 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

if you're torn on me, why vote for DN, who I was pushing, Starbuck, who I was pushing, and now Reck, who I've been pushing?
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Post Post #932 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 4:30 pm

Post by Knight of Cydonia »

I am struggling my way through this game. You fuckers love to theory-bullshit your way into walls of text. Page 16 right now. There will be a post happening soon. I want to do it all in one shot.
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Post Post #933 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:01 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

Knight of Cydonia wrote:I am struggling my way through this game. You fuckers love to theory-bullshit your way into walls of text. Page 16 right now. There will be a post happening soon. I want to do it all in one shot.
I'm prepared to beg that you break it down, there's already enough wall o'texts we don't need more.
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Post Post #934 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:12 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

SerialClergyman wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:Yes.
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Post Post #935 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:22 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

SerialClergyman wrote:if you're torn on me, why vote for DN, who I was pushing, Starbuck, who I was pushing, and now Reck, who I've been pushing?
Are you claiming to be formed the DN wagon and are you claiming to be the one forming a Reck wagon?
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Post Post #936 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:23 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

EBYOP: Claiming to have formed the DN wagon and are you also claiming to be the one forming a Reck wagon?
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Post Post #937 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:33 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

Firstly, I'm asking you to explain why obvious buddying to people you think are town is bad.
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Post Post #938 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 6:35 pm

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SC wrote:Your point about DeathNote makes some kind of sense but you aren't looking at my mindset. I was almost sure that Starbuck was scum. Her lynch was the immediate obvious choice. There was no reason to imprint because we didn't need any information.
Even if Starbuck had turned up scum there would still be two more scum alive. Imprinting could have possibly given the town more information that would be useful in finding those other scum.
SC wrote:Why do people keep suspecting me but lynching people I push a case against?
You being scum doesn't preclude you pushing a case against a fellow scum member to look more town if they turn up scum.
SC wrote:Firstly, I'm asking you to explain why obvious buddying to people you think are town is bad.
It is not necessarily bad but in your case you seem to think elvis is town from the very first post of the game.
farside22 wrote:Can you give me your list of scum suspect and why?
SC is my top suspect, the buddying with elvis makes me uncomfortable as well as his hammer D1 and push for SB day 2.

elvis I'm less suspicious of, and I initially had a town read on her, but the buddying with SC and her reasoning for them being confirmed town seems very weak to me.

Messiah, for the hammer D2, especially as it was before imprints had been decided.

I also want to take closer looks at VMD, farside22, and xRECKONERx when I have time.
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Post Post #939 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:23 pm

Post by Knight of Cydonia »

Wot I Think (Written as I read, thoughts/feelings on players will change throughout.)

= Early exchanges on imprint theory are interesting. DeathNote brings up the idea of "imprint everybody!" first, then gets voted instantly by elvis and is suddenly very contrite about it all. Little early bus maybe? Limerickx's plan kinda makes sense - control who has abilities, wait for the scum to move, then work from that controlled group to find scum. It assumes scum will definitely get power roles to kill though. Imprinting till someone gets a kill power... hm. I dunno. However...

= Elvis_knits and my predecessor have it right. Fuck the dice.

= THe Buttonmen's logic in these first couple of pages is shitty and bad and adjective and feels scummy in that he continues pushing it after it's shown to be these things.
The Buttonmen wrote: We can't play this game like normal if we want to win IMO, 8-4 is unwinnable by town in regular mafia, thus playing this like a regular game of mafia seems a terrible call.
= Wrong. That's only unwinnable if you have a town of fucking idiots, or really bloody good scum.

= VMD tries to shake things up, get discussion onto scum-hunting instead of breaking the setup, and SerialClergyman calls it "scummy as" but doesn't throw down a vote to back this apparent opinion up. Testing the waters to see what others think before committing? VMD calls him on this, and even TheButtonmen agrees it's not scummy, but then later on page 4 throws this out there:
TheButtonmen wrote: You make yourself sound very dangerous to town when its in a game with a very very small margin of error. Also does this mean you will lurk / leave the game the moment you stop having fun?
...which I don't particularly like the look of. VMD's response echoes my own: I don't like gaming the system. iam is a good enough mod to have not left a system that players could break, and the attempts by Buttonmen to force the town into his plan feel like pushing away from actual scumhunting.

= Plum's entrance post is pretty good. Makes good point about Buttonman taking a while to comment on DN, and he still hadn't voted for DN at this point. Buttonmen spotting that DN's plan was screwy late, perhaps decided to give it a couple of pages, then bus? Claims the speed of the game's progress made it hard. Not sure I buy it.

= DN is flailing madly D1, can see why lynched. Buttonmen seems to love calling his reasoning "terribad" without really committing to calling him scummy for pushing such bad logic.
elvis_knits wrote:It should be obvious from my posting and mod questions on the first page that I didn't know mafia can't NK either.
= Yeah, 'cause I totally can't see you being smart enough to act that one out, elvis. ¬_¬
elvis_knits wrote:This is almost certain proof that we're both town.
= Wat. You're trying to clear yourself AND Clergyman D1 with this? You's be trollin'. Oh, and you both want both of you to be imprinted too? How bloody convenient.

= VMD is thinking the same thing I am at this point. It's like she was never replaced at all, she just got a sex change.

= Elvis' major malfunction is that she assumes an average level of intelligence, not a especial one. She doesn't factor in that scum could be really fucking dumb (and not realise they haven't got a NK) or really fucking smart (and realise it, AND play on this). Or maybe she does. She also assumes that "none of you really understand my playstyle". Essentially, she wants to rule the town. Play to her plan, or be scum. ¬_¬

= Buttonmen calls it. Four people at least, plus anyone who didn't explicitly say so, and Elvis clears... herself and Clergyman. Hypothesis: Elvis and Clergy arranged to clear themselves in the scum quicktopic via this method. DN and another scum played dumber/said nothing to ensure that if the plan went tits up, two rogue actives would NOT be connected to it. Alternative hypothesis: Elvis-scum links herself to Clergy-town to get both imprinted - 1 permanent skill for 1 temporary one in an 8/4 split would be quite acceptable to scum D1.
SerialClergyman wrote:Information like strong ignorance or strong knowledge of setup is more concrete than someone who 'looks' town, in my opinion.
TO
SerialClergyman wrote: And it's not an overreaction, it's just a read. I think you're scum. *waves*.
= ...in one page, SC goes from trusting "information like strong ignorance or strong knowledge" to just going "meh, this is my read, i'm not gonna back it up much, VOTE TIEMZ NAOW" =/

= Serious WIFOM and chainsawing by SerialClergyman for himself and Elvis. A theme emerges. Ridiculous over-reaction by Elvis and SC against Starbuck, who was making some bloody good points.

= SC attempts to discredit everything Starbuck says because her comments on Elvis are about Elvis attacking DeathNote. Uhm... when most of what Elvis did for the first few pages was attack DeathNote, directly or indirectly, that's probably WHY DeathNote kept popping up in Starbuck's posting. It feels (justified by D2's outcome) that Serial was trying to pin Starbuck onto DeathNote in case DN went down. Which he did, and Starbuck followed.
SerialClergyman wrote:I never
accused
DN of being scum. The only time I even
insinuated
it was very early in the game
= Neat semantics.

= Messiah makes a point. SC/Elvis' entire Starbuck+DN=scum logic is based on them both being scum because the other is scum. DN is scum because starbuck is defending him, Starbuck is scum because she's defending DN. Yet... SC and Elvis are doing pretty much the same thing. By their own logic, then, they're doing something scummy...

= lewarcher taking absolutely nothing from the several pages so far is just... :shock: :? :evil:

= That said, he pulls it out and comes up with some decent content almost straight after.
Elvis_knits wrote:I want people to defend how they think it is reasonable to assume me and SC are buddies pulling a gambit.
= Uh, hey Sherlock, people have been doing that for quite a while by this point. (Pg 12)

= All of Plum's big post feels like ME TOO, but on EVERYONE.

= Oh crap, farside is in this game. Someone else I can't read too good. In fact, I can only ever reliably read Starbuck... and she dead. =/

= Elvis claims in post 292 to basically have a gut town read on on VMD/me, despite debunking/attacking much of what VMD said for several pages. =/

= Rockoner comes in, makes a big post (kinda like this one)

= DeathNote giving up at this point is pretty standard for him as scum, despite his "I NEVER PLAY THE SAME LOL" facade, and is the cue for the wagon.
SerialClergyman wrote:
I have a suggestion. Lynch DN, imprint me. If I'm wrong, and he's town, I'll be the next lynch, and I'll tell you all what my power was and where I used it and what I found. If I'm right, we lynch Starbuck and imprint me and elvis.
= OhsweetJebuscouldyoubeanymorefuckingobviousscumafterthisshitidkmanidk.
SerialClergyman wrote:Ok - different plan. Lynch me, imprint elvis. If I flip scum, lynch elvis. That would only cost you 1 day with imprinted scum. If I flip town, lynch Starbuck or Deathnote and imprint elvis again.
= Againwiththisfalsedichotomylineuplynchshitsrsly?

= Buttonmen has been quietly solid since his game-breaking attempts, which were anti-GAME rather than anti-town, and is giving me town vibes all the way through since. If we imprint anyone today I suggest him.

= Discussing how many imprints we want to make each day sounds like a damn good idea.
Proposal: before any actual hunting goes on each day, we decide on how many imprints (but not necessarily who). These discussions will be done and dusted with, we end them there, and they could also provide a certain amount of info. Would like thoughts on this.
elvis_knits wrote: If she's scum, you're her buddy.
= This on Reckoner not commenting on Starbuck.
elvis: Starbuck has flipped town. opinion on Reckoner?


= Re: the scum PM - as a mod, personally, I always specify that scum have the night-kill power if they have it.

= Pug89 364 pretty much summarizes why SC is scum.
elvis_knits wrote:The lack of support for anyone indicates that we're not scum.
[quote="elvis_knits" Two confirmed town [/quote]
= Wat.

= Elvis and SC's interaction beginning of Page 16 feels so contrived, like they're trying VERY HARD to make it VERY OBVIOUS that they're NOT DAYTALKIN', K?

= Oh god SC just said "statistically" can we get back to scumhunting kthx?
Oh wait, he has a vested interest in keeping away from that.
SerialClergyman wrote:I concede all points. Not everyone has jumped on the wagon - rather mostly everyone (except DN and Starbuck, I believe) have expressed a willingness to see him lynched.

He is not your biggest suspect, but is it fair to say he's one of your biggest suspects? top 3?

So the language was slightly hyperbolic, now go back and read the content and tell me what you think.
= "Okay, so that was all shit, but IF i had meant something entirely else, you'd agree, right?"
elvis_knits wrote:I <3 post 450. So much win on it. When the guys posts stuff like that I wonder why nobody else thinks he's town.
= Do you? REALLY? =/
elvis_knits wrote:I just had a great idea...

Let's launch a counter offensive!

imprint pug; imprint plum
= Waaaaaaaaat.
SerialClergyman wrote:
unvote, vote deathnote


executive decision. Let's continue this after a flip.
= Woah, who the FUCK promoted you, bub? Scum wanting to hammer on buddy to prevent a night for town with imprints?

= Yup, instantly pulls the "K, I HAMMERED SCUM, I ARE CONFIRMTOWN NOW K" shit.

= Oh, and now we have "K, let's keep chaining these lynches as I order you too, m'kay?"
SerialClergyman wrote:IF Starbuck THEN Vala.
= Starbuck flipped town, and yet from your reaction to my entrance, you're still certain I'm scum. By your fucked up logic of "FLIPS TOTALLY CONFIRM PEOPLE IF I SAY SO" I should be clear because Starbuck was town...

= VMD asks this very question and SC replies... OH WAIT, he doesn't. ¬_¬ So now I'M asking it:
Why, if Starbuck-scum would have equalled VMD/me-scum, is the opposite not true?

Vala Mal Doran wrote:
farside22 wrote: A vote means you believe someone is scum.
Well, I found a point we disagree on, then. It was early enough in the game that I really didn't have any suspects. Therefore, a vote to get more appropriate discussion going is perfectly acceptable imo.
= This, THIS, a thousand times THIS.

= Starbuck... is Starbuck. Good defence post, but she seems to have about 5 different threads running in her mind, which can get misinterpreted as scummy flip-flopping because they don't always get tied up properly at the end. I could have told you Starbuck was town about Page 12-13, tbh. She is, rather depressingly, the only person I have ever had a consistent read on on this site.

= Elvis' 606 - basically says that farside isn't scum-hunting, because she's attacking Elvis and SC, and looking at VMD/me. Uh... looks like scumhunting to me, Jim.

= End of Day 2 thoughts: EK and SC are buddying so hard it hurts, and pushed a crap wagon through on Starbuck. Messiah willingly hammered on command, simply saying "Her 'I don't see where I defended him" defence isn't very persuasive." WTF man, WTF.

= Elvis' 633 in D2 twilight makes me facepalm SO hard. Seriously? Putting your scummy push on misrep down to play style differences? I cannot believe anyone will swallow this shit.
SerialClergyman wrote:Starbuck - you seem to really take this hard and to be honest, I thought a lot of your catchup post was AtE from someone desperate.
= I haven't read this much bullshit since Sarah Palin's biography. Starbuck ain't teh bad guy, guys!


Okay, I wanted very much to get through all of this but it's 6:20am, and I have to go get ready for work having not slept because I forgot to pick up my meds yesterday so FFFFFFF D< I will finish this afternoon, until then,
Vote: SerialClergyman, FoS EK, Messiah, Imprint: farside22
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Post Post #940 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 8:11 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

Vote: No Lynch
if I wasn't already. @Elvis, please be sure to check on KoC's catchup post and answer the question he asked re: me.
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Post Post #941 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:16 am

Post by farside22 »

SerialClergyman wrote:if you're torn on me, why vote for DN, who I was pushing, Starbuck, who I was pushing, and now Reck, who I've been pushing?
I didn't vote on DN. I voted on SB because I thought your comment about lynch me see me flip town then lynch SB was something that made me pause and look back.
I have been saying for a few pages now that reck has been giving me scum vibes.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #942 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:29 am

Post by farside22 »

On a side note I would still vote you SC based on the push on SB over DN most of day 1, talking about the imprint of do who I say well you didn't so no one get imprinted approach, and frankly the if I was town or mafia why would I do this instead of answering questions approach is down right scummy.
It seems to be most of your answers to anything that people show as scummy.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #943 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:47 am

Post by elvis_knits »

farside22 wrote:
elvis_knits wrote:The funny thing about the farside-reck business is that farside also made a dubious switch to starbuck, IMO.
Umm I never said anything about star till I went back that day with SC, so hush.
He blantly flip on his views from 1 post to the other.
Any other catty remark you wish to make that shows once again I see you not reading the game.
Oh farside... I was just razzing you. ;)

I am reading the game though and I see where you're coming from about reck. I thought that all the people who had previously expressed little to no suspicion on Starbuck and then voted her were pretty suspect. You were one of those people. I actually think at this point your vote on Starbuck *might* have been sincere for how you were connecting SB to VMD, and VMD had been your suspect for a while. The wrench in those works is you connected SB to VMD after voting SB, not before. But hey, I think I am done attacking you for the moment. I can't promise I'll never make any more catty remarks though! <3

As for the reckoner vote switch to SB, it is potentially scummy, I agree. Reckoner had been semi-defending Starbuck to the point that I said "If she's scum, you're her buddy." Obv she didn't flip scum, so he's not her buddy.

Starbuck was neutral on his little grid on D1 and then D2 he was like
reckoner wrote:My vote will either go to Starbuck or SC.
Then
reckoner wrote:
Vote: SerialClergyman


His ploy was that if he was town, then so was elvis... and if DeathNote was scum, so was Starbuck. IMO, it was a bus. He knew DeathNote would flip scum, therefore incriminating Starbuck and seemingly clearing both himself and elvis.
Then
reckoner wrote:
Vote: Starbuck


On second thought, lynching Starbuck is a better plan. Passively defending someone who flips scum is a no-no.
There's not a whole lot of reasoning there why he was switching from SC to Starbuck. I think both votes were kinda going with the popular choice at the moment. The vote on SC is horrible as well since it is full of WIFOM, but if he really believes it, he shouldn't want to switch so easily.

Some new stuff people haven't talked about so much about reckoner:

1) Way back, reckoner said VMD's vote on buttonmen was a
towntell
. I think he takes this back later, but that's what he originally said. I think it makes no sense, and I think it shows a link between them. (Which only becomes important if one flips scum, obv).

2) I didn't like this:
Reckoner wrote:Farside is digging herself a hole.
Maybe it's just the connotation I associate with the expression "digging herself a hole," but it makes me think he thinks farside is making herself SOUND scummy, even though she may not be. Did anyone else read it that way?




Rereading reck, I do have a number of problems with him, although I still have sort of a weird gut feeling that keeps me from being totally sold. I also like that he's calling me town, since I feel like it's not really beneficial to scum to do that. Or maybe I am just very susceptible to buddying.
Talk nerdy to me.

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Post Post #944 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:54 am

Post by iamausername »

-=Vote Count #28=-


Alaska (2) - Hawaii, Ohio
No Lynch (2) - Montana, Iowa
Iowa (1) - Kansas

Not Voting (5) - Alaska, Georgia, Florida, Colorado, Virginia

6 to lynch.

-=Imprint Count #28=-

Hawaii (6) - Hawaii, Kansas, Ohio, Florida, Montana, Iowa

Florida (4) - Florida, Ohio, Kansas, Georgia
Montana (3) - Alaska, Iowa, Montana
Georgia (2) - Iowa, Georgia
Virginia (2) - Iowa, Georgia
Ohio (1) - Ohio
Iowa (1) - Iowa
Kansas (1) - Ohio
Colorado (0)
Alaska (0)

6 to imprint.

ALASKA = SerialClergyman
COLORADO = CrashTextDummie
FLORIDA = Limerickx
GEORGIA = Plum
HAWAII = TheButtonmen
IOWA = xRECKONERx
KANSAS = farside22
MONTANA = Pug89
OHIO = Knight of Cydonia
VIRGINIA = elvis_knits


-=Plum has requested replacement. Now seeking a replacement for Plum.=-
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Post Post #945 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:56 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

See sig: temporary v/la
green shirt thursdays
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Post Post #946 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 1:11 pm

Post by CrashTextDummie »

Gonna reply some more to SerialClergyman and maybe comment on KoC's analysis post after this, depending on how long it takes me. More analysis. Hopefully shorter this time.

xRECKONERx
:

As I previously mentioned, his predecessor Lewarcher82 actually gave me a fairly strong pro-town feeling. From his stance on Starbuck to his opinion about answering questions for others to a very decent looking analysis and line of questioning and especially his interpretation of the SC/Elvis/SB/DN business, it's all good. That last post I linked in particular I felt was very reasonable and in tune with my own reading at the time. I considered him one of the most pro-town players in the game at this point in my read-through.

--------

Reck's initial analysis when he replaced into the game I also felt was decent, although there was a part to it that caused me to raise an eyebrow:
xRECKONERx in post 308 wrote:This stuff about people being semi-cleared because they "didn't understand the setup" is complete bullshit. I read the rules,
but even I glazed over the fact that scum lacked a night kill
. I read the sample PMs, and I still didn't get it. It wasn't until the Mod clarified that I finally realized it. It's a null-tell. Trying to push it as a town-tell is a slight-scum-tell, though.
The underlined part felt almost like a scum-slip to me. If he is town, then the fact that he didn't realize the scum have a nightkill either surely would indicate that there may be some truth in Elvis' reasoning? The way he worded it and the reasoning behind it felt to me like it comes from a scum mindset: "Even I the scum glazed over the fact that I don't have a nightkill, so surely it's not a town-tell".

At this point, I mostly dismissed this notion though, on account of Lew's play and the quality of the rest of his analysis. But considering what follows from Reck, I'm inclined to reevaluate.

--------

For the rest of D1, I continued not really having a problem with him. The only real issues I saw where his arguing for no lynch/imprint over a DN lynch despite being on it. I consider this fairly minor though.

--------

The problems start on D2, and I'm probably gonna mostly repeat what was said by others and myself:

First of all, as I previously mentioned, there's the matter of his flip-flopping when it came to imprints. Timetable:
1. wants to imprint before deciding on a lynch
2. votes SerialClergyman
3. retracts his vote because he wants to figure out imprints first
4. joins the Starbuck wagon

For someone who is so adamant about getting people imprinted, that seems very inconsistent to me. I can definitely see the scum motivation behind this. He wants to appear pro-town by forcibly advocating a plan that sounds pro-town but jumps at the opportunity to get someone lynched. And looking back on D1, where he was similarly adamant about getting people imprinted, I can also see scum motivation in his actions: Pushing for a seemingly pro-town plan while leaving his vote on a weak scumbuddy because he doesn't want to be off-wagon at the end of the day. On the other hand, I fail to see any protown motivation for this behavior on D2.

----------

And of course, there's his jump on Starbuck for "passively defending someone who flipped scum". On its own, I don't necessarily find this scummy (apart from the fact that it's weak and undifferentiated reasoning to put someone at L-1). It's not unreasonable to change ones opinion on a player in light of a scum-flip. The inconsistency lies in the fact that he didn't have a problem with it on D1
despite
the fact that he already thought DN was scum at that point and therefore would have expected the scum-flip.

Not to mention that he was fifth on what I still consider a crap-wagon, which smells of opportunism.

----------

I'll start my D3 analysis with a piece of WTF:
xRECKONERx in Post 753 wrote:Honestly, I'm wary of the people who were against the DeathNote lynch. I may have been one of those people, but I know my town-ness.
Err... Reck was against the DeathNote lynch? He was
on
that lynch. Is this another slip? He was adamant on D1 that he thought DeathNote was scum and voted for him for the whole duration of his stay. Doesn't make sense to me
at all
.

----------

As for this:
xRECKONERx in post 799 wrote:Farside is digging herself a hole.
I don't really the the problem with this quote and don't follow the case that is being built around it.

----------

Finally, I'll reiterate that his asking me why I want to lynch him and then not showing any reaction at all to the reasoning I provided bothers me a lot. It's something I often see in scum: Not reacting to stuff they can't easily explain away in hopes that the accuser will focus elsewhere (which wasn't unlikely, considering I had my eyes set on VMD and SC first and foremost). The fact that a defense to farside's points had to be dragged out of him strikes me in a similar vein.

---------

So that's it, my analysis of xRECKONERx. It's pretty severe stuff (I particularly have to mull over the two possibles slips some more) counterbalanced by my read on his predecessor and his D1 play.

I can see him as scum with VMD, but probably not with SC. I'm hoping for a clearer picture once I do detailed analyses on the rest of the players (yes, you're getting more of those).

Now can I hear SCs thoughts on all this, please?
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Post Post #947 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 2:20 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

SC wrote:Mcslixacwfepvbatlpalau.

For future reference.
my current suspect list is xreck and ctd with farside, elvis, pug, vmd, buttonman all town leaving plum and limerick as undecideds.


I'm coming off two massive nights on NY day so forgive me if I'm not up for typing much - even the tapping of the keys is waaaay too loud.

Here's how I came up with this theory. You don't have to like it or agree with it, but this is how I work.

a) I remain convinced there's at least one scum between the three top imprint targets D1. Those are VMD, Buttonmen and Messiah (CTD). These were the votes, for reference:
In all - Ohio (5) -
Nevada
,
Florida
,
Arizona
, Ohio,
Colorado

Colorado
(5) -
Nevada
, Ohio,
Colorado
,
Iowa,
Florida

Hawaii (5) -
Nevada
,
Arizona
, Kansas,
Colorado
, Hawaii
That's coloured according to the suspect above. red for flipped scum, orange for suspected scum, cyan for undecided, black for leaning town and green for town.

b) I think I have to roll with my most favourite town tell of all and go with a read that says VMD is town. This is why I'm particularly irritated I didn't crumb this before you linked me and her together.
VMD wrote:More general thoughts on the Starbuck vs SC/Elvis thing: The overall fight looks to me like a town vs town squabble more than it does a scum vs town or scum vs scum distancing squabble. If there were scum involved I'm fairly certain I'd be smelling a rat from someone involved right now, and instead all I smell is a lot of righteous indignation all around. Try not to tunnel too much, guys, it could be bad news for all of us. >_<
Scum almost invariably never do this. If she was scum, there's no point in calling my aggressive attack against Starbuck a town vs town squabble. There's no point in trying to ensure we look elsewhere. Especially with 4 scum in the game, it's outright dangerous to try to discourage two townies from going at each other's throats. This essentially makes me think she's town pretty damn strongly, actually.

c) elvis is town. I'm yet to find an answer from anyone as to why 'buddying' with someone you think is town is a bad thing but I don't even care any more tbh. She reads as obv town to me and if she's scum I'll take my hat off to her because she had me utterly fooled.

d) farside being town is constantly being challenged for me this game. I know she's a veteren and probably an excellent player and I find it hard to meld her play with someone who's seen it all. I can't tell if it's an act. What made me think she was town is her case on me is just about the first time where I felt that someone had a legitimate point on me. I read through it and thought yep, fair enough, that's a decent attempt to find scum. I get a LOT of suspicion in almost every game, but that doesn't happen so often. Since then, of course, she's gone and voted Reck, who I think is probably scum, which is again siding with her top suspect's decision. Given that last time this happened it ended with her and the lynchee arm in arm wailing on elvis and I, I'm hardly thrilled. She's certainly less certain but due to the good case on me, the seemingly genuine confusion, I'm going to try to give her the benefit of the doubt for a while.

e) buttonmen has been regarded as obvtown for little reason, as far as I can tell. Breaking the setup is not as much of a town tell as some might regard, and he's done very little scumhunting. The majority of his suspicions have been with me, which are unforunately wrong, and he will almost certainly continue to vote me until I die. Having said that, he's probably town. I attributed his top suspect as DeathNote towards the end of D1. He attacked me for misrepresenting him and pointed out that I was his top suspect. No scum would have done that, with Deathnote's lynch on the cards. I think he genuinely believes he's right.

I won't go through all the others, I think that's enough. If there's some glaringly obvious thing I'm missing explaining, let me know.
D1 lynch wrote:
Nevada
(7) - Virginia,
Georgia
, Montana,
Iowa
,
Colorado
,
Florida
, Alaska
Virginia (2) -
Arizona
, Kansas
Alaska (1) - Hawaii

Not Voting (2) -
Nevada
, Ohio
Peak of D2 push to lynch SC wrote:Alaska (4) - Hawaii,
Colorado
, Ohio,
Iowa

Arizona
(3) - Alaska,
Georgia
, Virginia
Ohio (1) - Kansas

Not Voting (3) -
Arizona
,
Florida
, Montana

6 to lynch.
D2 lynch wrote:
Arizona
(6) - Alaska,
Georgia,
Virginia, Kansas,
Iowa
,
Colorado

Alaska (3) - Hawaii, Ohio,
Arizona


Not Voting (2) -
Florida
, Montana

6 to lynch.
Next post coming is a brief bit on CTD.
I'm old now.
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Post Post #948 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 2:27 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

Unvote; Vote: No Lynch


Now that Serial has put a meaning to the code.
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
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Post Post #949 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 2:27 pm

Post by CrashTextDummie »

I'd actually like to hear why you think Pug is town. I'm pretty sure I have more things to discuss with you, but I'll leave it for the new year.
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