Mini 891 - British Comedy Mafia (Game Over)

[Netopalis]

Let me explain....

The endgame happens when mafia are equal to or outnumber the town because there is no point to playing out a finished game. The Mafia has enough votes to end the game and kill off every townie. So, for example, a situation with 2 town and 2 mafia, one of which is stumped is NOT a loss for the town, it's LYLO. A situation with 3 town and 2 mafia, one of which is stumped is not even LYLO.

[BloodCovenent]

That just doesn't make any sense! the two town kill the scum that isn't stumped. Then does the last stumped scum have a night kill?

ugghh..... I just think this is stupid discussion, and is remotely distracting us from scum-hunting.

[Netopalis]

No, no, I'm saying that they essentially count as dead for endgame purposes.

[BloodCovenent]

No, no, I'm saying that they essentially count as dead for endgame purposes.

You don't even know that for sure though!!! That's just damn speculation!!!

[Netopalis]

No, it's solid fact. The

only

reason that games end early due to endgaming is because the game is a foregone conclusion. Take, for example, a game in which there are 3 townies and 3 scum left:

D1 - Townies can't force a lynch on a non-scum, best they can hope for is a no-lynch draw.
N1 - Townie killed
D2 - 2 townies left, 3 mafia. Mafia force a lynch.
N2 - Townie killed
D3 - 1 townie left, obviously lynched

Instead of going through all of that, we end the game early because the game has reached a foregone conclusion. If the mafia member has no vote, it would make no sense to count them towards endgame totals because

they have no vote

and thus cannot create a situation which would make the game a foregone conclusion.

[DeathSauce]

Didn't even realize that I wasn't voting.

vote:danakillsu

[Fuzzyman]

What's your biggest beef with her? You haven't said anything leading up to that vote.

[DeathSauce]

Yes I did. I said I disliked his entrance vote, called him out on opportunistic wagon jumping, and suggested he try scum-hunting, which I have seen no evidence of.

[DeathSauce]

EBWOP: Why does my vote worry you?

[Budja]

Glad to see the extension.

Can we please stop the Josh WIFOM now. Net is right above and Josh is still a bad lynch.

(Pointless post, I know but I'm waiting on Macavity and Co to show up.)

[MacavityLock]

All in all I don't like this power in a non-tree stump game due to the fact of our town PR's are in danger more than the scum. Especially if we are telling him to prove it on N1.

Why are town PRs more in danger than scum?

dana and China, what are your feelings on one shot vigs? China, is yours summed up in the following?

Call it a stumping PR or call it a vig PR, I don't really care for either in the town's hands. The only people who can be sure of who they are killing/stumping are the scum and townie vig's/stumpers are just shooting in the dark.

Have you ever played in a game with a pro-town vig?

It's possible, but I'm leaning towards he not having it. Would he really have it, I think it's a town PR. But again, I don't think he has it. Seems like a good scum gambit where he comes D2 and claims that scum just killed the same target he stumped.

Why do you think this is more likely than Lyman telling the truth? Also, if you are town and Lyman is scum, why would you give him this idea?

Also, thinking last night about this role. Let's say Josh uses it and hits scum. That means we have a confirmed scum that is allowed to continue posting but not vote? What is the point of that? Obviously no one would pay attention to that player from that point on. Makes no sense, either he is lying about there being a flip, or he is lying about his role.

Why does this automatically mean that he's lying? Where in the rules is a dead but talking scum explicitly disallowed?

After some re-reading, my vote on Neto is misguided.

Unvote.

Neto, you made some silly arguments re: stumping (you don't vig, or even treestump, someone who isn't under suspicion i.e. imag), but in general I agree with your side of the stumping debate.

We need to get things clear. imag said it best: As far as we can tell, Lyman is claiming that he has the ability to vig someone, but in doing so will give them unlimited "bah" posts. This is essentially a vig. Adjust your theories, setup specs, etc accordingly.

Lyman, upon further thought, I'd say feel free to use your stumping ability whenever it feels right, including tonight if you like. I will expect a complete explanation of whether or not you used it and on who in your first post tomorrow. You're not off the hook, but I'm happy to see you live another day.

There's got to be scum on the 2nd Lyman wagon. dana's vote was weak, but I need more from him before deciding whether or not he's scum. I don't particularly like the way either Chinaman's or BC's entered and stayed on/bounced back to Lyman. But I haven't had much problem with BC's posting. I could maybe vote for Chinaman. But I think I'm going to

Vote: Snow_Bunny

. She both stayed off the first Lyman-wagon and jumped onto the second for the wrong reasons.

[Fuzzyman]

Yes I did. I said I disliked his entrance vote, called him out on opportunistic wagon jumping, and suggested he try scum-hunting, which I have seen no evidence of.

Blatan lie, but those are all good points.

EBWOP: Why does my vote worry you?

I get worried anytime somebody votes without saying why.

[DeathSauce]

Hey FuzzyBrain, try reading my posts before calling me a liar

[Chinaman]

All in all I don't like this power in a non-tree stump game due to the fact of our town PR's are in danger more than the scum. Especially if we are telling him to prove it on N1.

Why are town PRs more in danger than scum?

dana and China, what are your feelings on one shot vigs? China, is yours summed up in the following?

Call it a stumping PR or call it a vig PR, I don't really care for either in the town's hands. The only people who can be sure of who they are killing/stumping are the scum and townie vig's/stumpers are just shooting in the dark.

Have you ever played in a game with a pro-town vig?

Lyman, upon further thought, I'd say feel free to use your stumping ability whenever it feels right, including tonight if you like. I will expect a complete explanation of whether or not you used it and on who in your first post tomorrow. You're not off the hook, but I'm happy to see you live another day.

There's got to be scum on the 2nd Lyman wagon.

Wow, well, first I'll answer your questions even though you didn't answer mine (though I can get the just of how you'd answer it from your post, you didn't answer it directly but w/e).

As for your first question, I answered this already. It's a numbers game at this point. Without delving too far in, let's just for arguments sake say there are 3 scum to 9 town. Lets say that only half of the town have PR's (though I'd be willing to bet more). That's 4 town PR's to 3 scum with or without PR's. Now, I've seen other setups, but this is for arguments sake remember. Pure odds say that if JL just shoots from the hip, he most likely hits a town PR over a scum and definitely more likely hits a townie over scum. That's if it's used today. That's if he has it at all. That's why I say it's not good for town. Was that too hard for you to follow THIS time?

Second question, yes, my opinion was summed up in the part you quoted me and yes I have played with them. I never see it hit scum on D1.

Now, to your comments. First off,

FoS MacavityLock

for the same reason I suspect Net. Anyone wanting JL to use this power tonight (even if you leave it to his discretion) is suspect for me. I think its clearly obvious that if used right now it would be detrimental to town. Secondly, I don't even believe him and I think he's scummy for other reasons. One not unimportant reason is because I have seen ZERO scumhunting from him. NONE! Add that with AtE and his nack for agreeing with anyone who questions his posts, I say he's a mighty fine lynch

Now, to the stuff not to me. JL is by no means safe today and hopefully he won't "live another day". To state that is just ridiculous and almost subliminal messaging.

Also, explain to me how you are certain there is scum on his wagon? It is quite possible that JL isn't lynched yet do to scum NOT being on his wagon...you know, cuz he's scum.

Also, I caught this nice little quote from you earlier

Right now, I'm thinking that if Lyman is around tonight, he should not be using this treestumping shot tonight. Saving it for later, once we've got fewer targets is probably a better idea.

What changed from this quote to your most recent one about him using it whenever he'd like blah blah blah?

Another reason I suspect you is because of your suspect list. This is the least suspicious due to there being more town than scum but...
--------------------------------------
For those who have yet to answer, please do so in your next post. I don't know why you're avoiding it. I'll post it again here:

-Do you think JL really has the power he claimed?
-If JL really has this power, do you think it's a scum PR or town PR?
-If it's a town PR, do you want him to use it N1?
-If yes, do you think we should collectively discuss who he should use it on, a list of a few people he should use it on one of, or just let him choose on his own?

Add this one too.
-In your opinion, what are the odds we wake tomorrow with a successful stump? Explain your reasoning.

Again, I would like EVERYONE playing this game to answer these questions.

[MacavityLock]

Wow, well, first I'll answer your questions even though you didn't answer mine (though I can get the just of how you'd answer it from your post, you didn't answer it directly but w/e).

I didn't see any direct questions to me. If I missed them, my bad, but please let me know.

Lets say that only half of the town have PR's (though I'd be willing to bet more). That's 4 town PR's to 3 scum with or without PR's.

What? Why so many? How many games have you played with so many PRs? How many games have you played with fewer?

Pure odds say that if JL just shoots from the hip, he most likely hits a town PR over a scum and definitely more likely hits a townie over scum. That's if it's used today. That's if he has it at all. That's why I say it's not good for town. Was that too hard for you to follow THIS time?

Yes, a vig more likely hits a townie, and that will pretty much always be true for any vig. If he doesn't have that power, it can't hurt us, so that complaint doesn't apply.

Second question, yes, my opinion was summed up in the part you quoted me and yes I have played with them. I never see it hit scum on D1.

I have. I was scum hit with a vig night 1 in another game. Very sad for me. But that's really neither here nor there.

Secondly, I don't even believe him and I think he's scummy for other reasons. One not unimportant reason is because I have seen ZERO scumhunting from him. NONE! Add that with AtE and his nack for agreeing with anyone who questions his posts, I say he's a mighty fine lynch

The no scumhunting is a totally fair point, in addition to the contradictions noted earlier in the day. I definitely still have an eye on him. However, I do think that if Lyman does have this power, it is likely to be a town PR. I have seen a game with a scum vig in addition to their regular kill, but I think it would be entirely unbalanced in a mini. There is an off-chance that stumping is the mafia (or maybe even SK) kill method. Either way, more information will be gathered overnight based on kills and stumps.

Also, explain to me how you are certain there is scum on his wagon? It is quite possible that JL isn't lynched yet do to scum NOT being on his wagon...you know, cuz he's scum.

Sure, but even if he is scum, do you think it's unlikely that there's busing going on? It's a gut read based on how the wagons formed.

Also, I caught this nice little quote from you earlier

Right now, I'm thinking that if Lyman is around tonight, he should not be using this treestumping shot tonight. Saving it for later, once we've got fewer targets is probably a better idea.

What changed from this quote to your most recent one about him using it whenever he'd like blah blah blah?

I did in fact change my mind, based on the provability argument. As I said earlier this post, if someone gets stumped, I think Lyman is likely to be town, pending other kills that occur. Having someone proven town is useful.

Another reason I suspect you is because of your suspect list. This is the least suspicious due to there being more town than scum but...

I don't understand. You don't like my suspicions list, but you don't say why. Also, since you're on it, there is a measure of OMGUS. I'm not really sure what you mean by "least suspicious" here.

My apologies for missing these. My answers in bold.

For those who have yet to answer, please do so in your next post. I don't know why you're avoiding it. I'll post it again here:

-Do you think JL really has the power he claimed?

Probably, as it is basically provable.

-If JL really has this power, do you think it's a scum PR or town PR?

As stated, town PR, with a very small probability of being the actual scum kill method.

-If it's a town PR, do you want him to use it N1?

At Lyman's discretion, with complete report immediately beginning the following day.

-If yes, do you think we should collectively discuss who he should use it on, a list of a few people he should use it on one of, or just let him choose on his own?

In a perfect world, himself. In a slightly less perfect world, someone on my suspicions list. In this game, someone with healthy suspicion on him/her. But it's Lyman's choice, and he's the one who has to defend it.

Add this one too.
-In your opinion, what are the odds we wake tomorrow with a successful stump? Explain your reasoning.

Odds of this event don't matter today. Only thing that matters is what actually happens overnight. What is the purpose of this question?

[Netopalis]

China, I seem to notice two threads in your arguments that I think are getting a bit too blurred. On the one hand, you seem to be saying that you don't believe the claim. On the other, you seem to be saying that you believe the claim but are arguing for a policy lynch? Do you think you could clear up this confusion a bit?

[DeathSauce]

-Do you think JL really has the power he claimed?
-If JL really has this power, do you think it's a scum PR or town PR?
-If it's a town PR, do you want him to use it N1?
-If yes, do you think we should collectively discuss who he should use it on, a list of a few people he should use it on one of, or just let him choose on his own?

1 - I think he has the power or something similar to it (e.g SerialKiller)
2 - I don't know. Like I said, a stumped flipped scum is a weird creature to be able to create.
3 - No. We need to use it to benefit town, whatever his alignment, and we should have input into the decision. If he uses the power without our input and hits a townie, he should be lynched.

[Chinaman]

China, I seem to notice two threads in your arguments that I think are getting a bit too blurred. On the one hand, you seem to be saying that you don't believe the claim. On the other, you seem to be saying that you believe the claim but are arguing for a policy lynch? Do you think you could clear up this confusion a bit?

Sure Net. There are 2 thoughts going on in my head. One, the power as JL has claimed it seems...well, a tad bit overdone. I can't do it right now, but I will go back through and Isolate what his power does exactly as he has explained it. When I read it as it was going on, I thought that it was just too CF'ed of an explanation by JL for him not to be pulling it out his butt.

Second thought process must be there in case he DOES have it. I'm not a fan of vigs or in this case, vig-like-powers to begin with. They are a tad bit more useful when used later in the game, but I have explained it already.

I will be doing one more thing when I go back. If I remember correctly, yes JL was at L-1 or close to it, but there was plenty of time for him to argue his way out of it without claiming. Why resort to a claim so quickly? Then, when he claims it, it's a jumbled mess of a claim....

Those will be in my next post. All in all, I'm leaning toward him not having it. If he does, then I don't want him using it so early.

[MacavityLock]

Chinaman, there are about 4 questions/points in my post 339 that you have not addressed.

I will be doing one more thing when I go back. If I remember correctly, yes JL was at L-1 or close to it, but there was plenty of time for him to argue his way out of it without claiming. Why resort to a claim so quickly? Then, when he claims it, it's a jumbled mess of a claim....

Lyman was at L-1 for 3 real-time days, you called for more votes on him during that time, and imag explicitly requested a claim from him (I implicitly requested a claim). How can you possibly make a case for a "quick-claim" here?

Very close to switching my vote.

[Chinaman]

Mac- I did say I was going to go back as I didn't remember exactly how it happened.

As for your 4 questions:

First, in the themed games I have played in and reviewed, even the vanilla townie has added information that in a normal game they wouldn't have. For instance, in a recent starwars game I was in, I was a VT but had info about someone else. I didn't know if they were for sure a scum role, but I knew their name, and that they the person they played was "the lady of the sith" so I had a pretty good idea. Every other townie had a PR even if it wasn't a useful one (insane cop, paranoid cop, etc). So, in my experience, it's usually more than 1/2 the town with PR's. Could be that's not the case here, but I'm betting it is.

Secondly, it could be there is some bussing, but it could be there isn't. Speculation of such at this point with no flip is pure WIFOM. I just thought it odd you seemed to be very sure there was.

Thirdly I meant it's the least telling or almost a null tell that your list has who it has on it.

As for your last question, I will answer it once more people have answered the question of mine that you have a question about.

If I can analyze your posts correctly, your suspicious list includes:
Me
Blood
Snow
and Dana

Is there a reason Budja isn't on there?

As for your list, if the majority want to let JL live today and attempt to clear himself tonight with a stump, I think your list would be a very good short list of people he should choose from.

I would say that he target me specifically, but I don't want scum to know exactly who he's targeting tonight. All in all, I would be most afraid of him hitting someone with a PR, but I don't mind being one of the targets he has to choose from as I am without a power but still town.

I'm on the fence about asking others like me to step up and put their names in the hat so that he can prove himself if he is indeed town. I say this because if there were 4 of us who threw our names in the hat, that narrows the field down for scum on which town have PR's. What are your thoughts?

[MacavityLock]

Chinaman, how many theme games have you played? How many minis? How many mini themes? I don't often see games with that many PRs.

Wagon-examination isn't as useful as it would be with some flips, but this is pretty much true for any scumhunting on Day 1. Do you not believe it's a valid scumhunting method?

Is there a reason Budja isn't on there [your suspicious list]?

It's because I don't think he's been all that suspicious. What else do you want me to say?

I would say that he target me specifically, but I don't want scum to know exactly who he's targeting tonight. All in all, I would be most afraid of him hitting someone with a PR, but I don't mind being one of the targets he has to choose from as I am without a power but still town.

Why would you offer yourself up to a vig, either as town or scum? You dying hurts your win condition no matter what, so I'm not sure I understand your motive behind this, except maybe in terms of other people's reads.

I'm on the fence about asking others like me to step up and put their names in the hat so that he can prove himself if he is indeed town. I say this because if there were 4 of us who threw our names in the hat, that narrows the field down for scum on which town have PR's. What are your thoughts?

Yeah, this is a bad idea.

[BloodCovenent]

--------------------------------------
For those who have yet to answer, please do so in your next post. I don't know why you're avoiding it. I'll post it again here:

-Do you think JL really has the power he claimed?
-If JL really has this power, do you think it's a scum PR or town PR?
-If it's a town PR, do you want him to use it N1?
-If yes, do you think we should collectively discuss who he should use it on, a list of a few people he should use it on one of, or just let him choose on his own?

Add this one too.
-In your opinion, what are the odds we wake tomorrow with a successful stump? Explain your reasoning.

Again, I would like EVERYONE playing this game to answer these questions.

-I'm about 60/40 leaning that he has it.
-He must use it on N1,
-No, we should not discuss who he uses it on.
-50% chance we will

[ortolan]

Fourteenth vote count

Josh Lyman (4): Chinaman, BloodCovenent, Snow_Bunny, danakillsu
Budja (2): Josh Lyman, Fuzzyman
danakillsu (1): Netopalis, DeathSauce
BloodCovenent (1): Budja
Locke Lamora (1): imaginality
Snow_Bunny (1): MacavityLock

Not voting (3): Locke Lamora

7 to lynch

Deadline date was wrong, sorry about that.

Current deadline: Saturday 2nd January 10pm AEST (which is greatly ahead of European/US time, btw)

[Snow_Bunny]

@MC: I stayed out of the first Lyman's wagon because it was crap. It was after his claim. Then he made that horrendous claim, and that's when I voted for him. And, what exactly are the wrong reasons?

[MacavityLock]

SB, what's wrong with the claim?