Mini #893 - Dollhouse Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:25 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

The Buttonman in 256 wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:
lynching is less dangerous to the town than imprinting. If we were to lynch without imprinting, the worst that happens is we're down to 7 townies and 4 scum and have a wagon's worth of information.
If we imprint without lynching, we get all sorts of random bits of information that will be genuinely hard to piece together, and worse case scenario is that we permanently give scum abilities.

Thus I'm in favour of a lynch and very few if any at all imprints.

This about perfectly sums up my thoughts on how to proceed at this point in the game.
Interesting. Why the complete turnaround since the above post?

Flips give you concrete facts. They dramatically impact on who is scum and who isn't. DN's town flip makes Starbuck less likely to be scum, for example, and elvis and I more likely to be scum. This is essentially a truism. If you think flips aren't indicative of the alignment of others, then how on earth do you scum hunt? Why would you even care what the flip was?

We have 8 town votes to use and 4 scum votes, you need 7 votes to imprint. I garuantee you the scum won't let 3 town and no scum get imprinted. It is a lot easier to hide your motivation for an imprinting record than it is a voting record. An imprint that lasts till the end of the day is very powerful and I'm not at all in favour of handing them out until we have a more concrete idea on who is who. I'm notign the amount of people who think it's outrageous that I think alvis is likely town btu are prepared to hand out imprints to whoever is around town as if they were candy.
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:27 pm

Post by farside22 »

1 last time I'm asking this question. Just 1 last time and if you ignore me again SC I'm changing my vote.
How does DN flip confirm you and elvis's role one way or another?
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:31 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

I've answered and you refuse to accept it because you have, in my opinion, a flawed notion of WIFOM.

It does not confirm me or elvis.

It does suggest both of us are MORE LIKELY to be town.

It does this because although it is POSSIBLE we are both scum bussing our partner, it is statistically and motivationally MORE LIKELY that we are town pushing a case on scum.

To rule it out as null either way because there is a WIFOM possibility of either is TERRIBLY BAD PLAY in my opinion.
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:35 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

SerialClergyman wrote:
The Buttonman in 256 wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:
lynching is less dangerous to the town than imprinting. If we were to lynch without imprinting, the worst that happens is we're down to 7 townies and 4 scum and have a wagon's worth of information.
If we imprint without lynching, we get all sorts of random bits of information that will be genuinely hard to piece together, and worse case scenario is that we permanently give scum abilities.

Thus I'm in favour of a lynch and very few if any at all imprints.

This about perfectly sums up my thoughts on how to proceed at this point in the game.
Interesting. Why the complete turnaround since the above post?
TheButtonmen wrote:
xRECKONERx wrote:@Plum: how many imprints would you give between 1-5, and who are your imprint candidates at the moment?

Actually, let's make that question @EVERYONE.
2 Imprints 1 Lynch is what I'd be most supportive of at the moment.
What complete turnabout? I'm still suggesting a lynch and very few imprints.
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:47 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

SerialClergyman wrote: It does this because although it is POSSIBLE we are both scum bussing our partner, it is statistically and motivationally MORE LIKELY that we are town pushing a case on scum.
You and Elvis keep falling back on this assumption that both of you share an aligment, whats stopping just one of you being scum?
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Then two, then three, then a month
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:50 pm

Post by Limerickx »

Sorry for my inactivity as well. I tried to make a 'longer post coming soon!' type deal earlier, but it appears it did not go through from my phone.

Anyways:
After reading through, I think I am down for a 2 imprint/1 lynch setup. 2 is small enough that we can keep tabs on everyone, and as for the lynch, eh, I could go either way, and since it seems like that is the likely outcome....
I'd also like to note that I haven't done enough scumhunting, and focused too much on the overall strategy, but hopefully I can dig a little deeper in this post anyways.

SC: I think I had a more townie reading on him for the first part of the game. Moreso than most other players, anyways. I think he was honest in his defense of the arguements brought up against him. Then he started busting out the whole 'lynch DN, imprint me' plan and I just got confused. I don't know what he was trying to accompolish, and I don't think it helps the town. There is no way he can KNOW DN is scum (though I am inclined to be most suspicious of DN as well.) Along with the fact that if we were to vote him off the next day, it would imply we believe he was scum, so why would we believe what he said about his imprint? I don't see why we should imprint people unless we feel they are the most likely to be town, and putting a silly plan in place to disrupt that seems unhelpful. He has strongly been defending E_K, who I have a town read on as well. Finally, he says he is unsupportive of imprints. Again, I feel that a limited amount of imprints are in the towns best interest, as long as they are kept to a minimum. SC comes off looking a little scummy in my eyes.

Starbuck: I don't have a solid read at the momebnt. Where SC had a big problem with her defending DN when she also admitted to having a null read on him, I didn't agree. I don't see a problem with defending someone when you feel the arguements being used against them are shoddy, regardless of your personal read on them is. Truthfully, not much of a read on her, though maybe after thinking, it increases my suspicion on SC a little.

Messiah: Out of everyone, I get the strongest town vibe from him. In my reread, whenever I found myself thinking of soemthing, 9 times out of 10 Messiah asked the question in his next post.

Plum: Maybe I'm biased because she and I seem to share a lot in common regarding the basic way we should play out the early stages of the game. Hard to tell really, only a few posts, but when they come, they are big. (don't say it.....too easy......)

Buttonman: Yes the 'try and break the game' subtopic went on a bit, but I feel his heart was in the right place. Another player I find myself agreeing with a lot as I read his posts. I'm leaning townie.

Lew -> xReckx: Generally got a townie vibe from Lew before he left. xReckx joins and sums up. Disagrees with me on some points, but generally suspects the same people. I feel like I'm should really have a more solid stance on him one way or another, but I admit i don't, other than the fact that we have similar feelings on many people. Oh, and to answer this question:
xRECKONERx wrote:Limerickx is opposed to lynching today... I don't understand why. We have a free random lynch to use WITHOUT the guarantee of another townie dying during the night.
I mentioned elsewhere that seeing as it is guaranteed that the mafia don't have a NK (unless we hand one to them) I felt that if there was no lynch, today+tomorrow would kind of be like one extended day, with the benefit from any imprint imformation we could get. Since then, I've been mostly convinced to the benefit of lynching regardless, because of the EXTRA informational benefit. Again, sorry to get to this question so late.

Farside: I admit I couldn't read his uber-long post. My eyes started hurting. At this point, I think another reread will be required tomorrow. Lets leave it at null for now.
In fact, I'll wrap up my thoughts on the rest and expand on it tomrorow

Pug: At first town, but shifted to null.

DN: Scum, offered bad ideas at the start, like, crazy-times. Imprint all, imprint none, its impossible to find scum because everyone could be doing a real great job, only a cop would be beneficial (and awful reasons why this is the case.)

VMD: Generally town, hasn't waivered too much

E_K: I actually think E_K is less scummy than most other people. Still undecided.

Sorry for sputtering out of gas there at the end, I'll try to basically finish up the last few people tomorrow, as well as ask some questions.

NOTE: (Shoot, lots of posts while I typed this) To answer the question about how many to imprint, I'd say imprint 2. I'm comfortable with the reasoning to lynch someone.

That being said:
Imprint: Messiah

Vote: Death Note


Currently I have votes on more than 2 people, but thats simply to keep imprint votes on the players I think are most likely town. My desire to keep imprints limited will, of course, trump my reads when imprints start going down.
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:06 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

OMG FAIL.

I've been typing for the last two hours and just lost everything due to internet fail. So, screw it, since I've read the whole thread now, I'll just address what I remember enough to address and if anyone has any questions for me they can ask me again. I'm not spending another 2 hours retyping all that. >_<

@Reckoner: You think I'm "obvtown", then back off of that read when Elvis starts questioning you about it and unimprint. Why?

@SC: I wouldn't be particularly opposed to your lynch order plan. Both you and DN have some substantial connections between yourselves and other players and knowing the way either or both of you flip would probably be great for untangling this game's web a little. DN is starting to get on even my nerves -- I'm just flat-out running out of patience for him and if he's going to be like this all game it might be better to just get rid of him and if he
is
scum, then hey, icing on the cake.

I wouldn't necessarily auto-call you town if DN flips scum, though. If I were scumbuddies with DN, he'd be a laughably easy bus and considering the count on DN now I'm fairly sure scum knows that. (Speaking of the count, he's at L-1 and that's why I'm not voting him now.)

@Farside: At the point in the game you asked me about re. Elvis and Plum, I was just going off gut, knowing I could rescind any imprint votes if I changed my mind later. Plum moved downward on my list due to her inactivity but since she's making an effort lately she's squarely back at neutral.

You addressed some other things to me but I don't remember what they were. Mind repeating? Apologies.

Re: button vote: Someone (I think it was messiah) said that they read my vote on button as a null tell. If I weren't me, that's probably how I'd read it too. Not sure why Reckoner considers it a town tell; I just wanted button to shut up so we could get on with playing the game and not NL spamming to auto-win.
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:17 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

I'm opposed to a DN lynch at the moment. Partially because right now it would mean
0
imprints getting handed out today/tonight.

So anyone hammering DN before we can figure out what the plan is in regard to imprints I will assume your scum.
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Then two, then three, then a month
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:18 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

Vala Mal Doran wrote:DN is starting to get on even my nerves -- I'm just flat-out running out of patience for him and if he's going to be like this all game it might be better to just get rid of him and if he
is
scum, then hey, icing on the cake.
What's he done recently that's ticked you off since your last post?
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Then two, then three, then a month
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:22 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

EBWOP: And since everyone else is,
Imprint: TheButtonmen
I see no reason to not self imprint as well.
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
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Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:46 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

TheButtonmen wrote:
Vala Mal Doran wrote:DN is starting to get on even my nerves -- I'm just flat-out running out of patience for him and if he's going to be like this all game it might be better to just get rid of him and if he
is
scum, then hey, icing on the cake.
What's he done recently that's ticked you off since your last post?
Originally I wanted to excuse him because of his meta and a hope that, if scum, he would unintentionally out his scumbuddies. When I finally got back around to this game I realized, you know what, if he really wanted to, he could change his meta. As he's acting now, he's little more than dead weight to us. Lewarcher was also little more than dead weight without a known meta excuse, which is why I was going after him. (Did I unvote yet, btw?
unvote
just in case.) Now that he's actually been replaced with someone who might actually keep up with the game, Jason has been replaced, and plum is active again, DN is the only one left who I'd be willing to lynch D1 because he's just... useless to us and hard to understand. Also, he has had more direct interactions than many other players in this stage of the game, and if we lynch him we have a lot of information based on that. (We have a lot of connections with SC too, but DN should be lynched first on the basis that SC... actually
talks
.)

And anyway, the "policy lynch"/"Appeal to Emotion" thing was just intolerably bad and the straw that broke the camel's back. >_>
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:48 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

I backed off of you AND Buttonmen, VMD. I realized my gut reaction was logically incorrect.
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:49 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

So you thought I was obvtown solely based on my Button vote, I take?
And as your mother, you will listen to me, young lady. There will be no leading of these ships and armies on a mass-murdering crusade. Or else.
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:52 pm

Post by Starbuck »

Just checking in from Rome International Airport. I'll be back on base in Sicily tonight and after some well needed sleep and my Statistics final tomorrow, I'll be back in the swing and catching back up with the game.
<3 Kise, Reck, dram, tans, & Kats <3
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:57 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

Vala Mal Doran wrote:So you thought I was obvtown solely based on my Button vote, I take?
That was the foundation of my argument, yes.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:59 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

Oh, okay. I thought you found me town based on my general play and thus was confused.
And as your mother, you will listen to me, young lady. There will be no leading of these ships and armies on a mass-murdering crusade. Or else.
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:18 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

I formed my first opinion based on that original logic, then confirmation bias caused me to see everything you did as townie. Not that I'm saying you're scum - I still have a town read on you - it's just not as strongly town as it was before since the foundation was faulty.
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:30 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

I see. Thanks for elaborating.
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:39 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

If I'm counting correctly at the moment TheButtonmen (Me), VMD and Messiah are all sitting at 5 Imprint votes.

Thoughts? How many people to we want imprinted?
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Then two, then three, then a month
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:42 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

How many scum if any do you think are imprinting you?
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:46 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

SerialClergyman wrote:How many scum if any do you think are imprinting you?
Why?
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:53 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

I want to get a feel for your understanding of the game.
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:03 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

SerialClergyman wrote:I want to get a feel for your understanding of the game.
If your trying to ask me who I think is scum, I would point out that I'm currently voting you. As for my other thoughts on town / scum well call me old fashioned, I know scum / town lists are popular in this game but somethings I like keeping close to the chest D1.
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Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:07 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

..

That's not what I asked you.

I'm asking you how many scum, if any, do you think are imprinting you right now.
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:29 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

TheButtonmen wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:How many scum if any do you think are imprinting you?
Why?
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up

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