Mini #893 - Dollhouse Mafia (Game Over!)

[SerialClergyman]

EK has primarily been attacked for trying to confirm the two of us as town. I'm telling you I have a read of her as town. If I am killed and confirmed town myself, that means she went to a lot of effort to try to confirm a townie and you can be sure that my read of her is well-intentioned - both of these things make her more likely to be town.

Similar arguments can be made about Starbuck and DN - if I'm town and elvis is likely town based on that flip, the attack against DN and SB is properly intentioned and their attack is against a confirmed town and a likely town. This makes them more likely to be scum.

I TOTALLY think like this. More importantly, it brings results. I get irritated that more people DON'T think like this.

But what's disengenuous is people like farside and reckoner who have both suggested that EITHER elvis or I are scum. This logic says that if I were to flip town, they would think that elvis is likely SCUM. Not only is this the opposite of what is more likely based on actions, it's also exactly the same logic they are rejected when I suggest things like me town = elvis likely town.

[xRECKONERx]

No. You being lynched and turning up town means nothing about e_k's alignment. BUDDYING completely makes that useless.

[SerialClergyman]

So what do you mean when you say one of us is likely to be scum and the other town?

'buddying' and 'distancing' are reasons why it's just more likely, not certain. If you find player A attacking player B when player B is scum, it is POSSIBLE that there is distancing there but it is nonetheless more likely player A is town. This is why the term 'WIFOM is so abused - people think anythign that has an element of WIFOM must be 50/50 by nature when that is absolutely not the case.

[xRECKONERx]

No. I wouldn't say my read on you is indicative of my read on elvis_knits at this point. The opposite also does not apply.

The same goes for DN/Starbuck.

I don't like to/don't think it's very proper to make scum connections on D1. Sure, it's interesting with four scum in this game, but the fact still remains that a four person scumteam can coordinate QUITE WELL against an eight person town, and there's no way to really start drawing conclusions until we get a role-flip.

This is why I like the no lynch + 3 imprints idea. That way, even if one if the imprints is insane cop or something, we'll be able to figure it out with those few mislynches (depending on mafia kills, should they ever get a killing role).

That being said, I just have a feeling that DeathNote is scum, which is why I wouldn't mind lynching him today. But I'd still prefer no lynch + 3 imprints.

[TheButtonmen]

@Plum: how many imprints would you give between 1-5, and who are your imprint candidates at the moment?

Actually, let's make that question @EVERYONE.

2 Imprints 1 Lynch is what I'd be most supportive of at the moment.

[TheButtonmen]

EBYOP: Note I didn't list the people who I'd chose as until I get a feel for the new replacments (never played with either) my list is quite fluid and I'm not fond of town / scum lists.

[Vala Mal Doran]

Apologies for not posting today; I had friends drop in from out of town unexpectedly. I'm going to have to catch up tomorrow. >_<

[elvis_knits]

I'll respond to other things in a bit (I think farside may have asked me some Q's), but I just wanted to get this out before I slog through the thread:

I am more sure SC is town at this point.

If he were scum who happened to get lucky with me confirming him in error, I doubt he would go around suggesting he gets lynched first in an effort to prove me town.

Well, according to his plan, he doesn't need to die if DN flips scum. So unless he's DN's scum buddy, then he MUST be town who really really believes DN is scum. There is no way he would say what he's saying if he's scum and DN is not. Because if SC is scum and knows DN is town, he would not offer up his life to lynch deathnote, knowing he is condemning himself to death

Possible scenarios are 1) DN scum, SC scum; and 2)SC town thinks DN is scum

I think it is unlikely that DN is his scum buddy, for their interaction the whole game.

Therefore, I think possibility 2 is much more likely.

SC is town who VERY MUCH believes DN is scum. Nothing else makes sense.

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #9=-

Nevada (4) - Virginia, Georgia, Montana, Iowa
Alaska (2) - Colorado, Hawaii
Virginia (2) - Arizona, Kansas
Arizona (1) - Alaska
Iowa (1) - Ohio

Not Voting (2) - Florida, Nevada

7 to lynch.

-=Imprint Count #9=-

Ohio (5) - Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Iowa
Hawaii (4) - Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Kansas
Alaska (3) - Alaska, Nevada, Virginia
Florida (3) - Nevada, Florida, Ohio
Iowa (3) - Arizona, Iowa, Kansas
Virginia (2) - Alaska, Virginia
Colorado (2) - Nevada, Ohio
Montana (2) - Nevada, Ohio
Georgia (2) - Nevada, Georgia
Arizona (1) - Nevada
Kansas (1) - Nevada
Nevada (1) - Nevada

7 to imprint.

ALASKA = SerialClergyman
ARIZONA = Starbuck
COLORADO = Messiah
FLORIDA = Limerickx
GEORGIA = Plum
HAWAII = TheButtonmen
IOWA = xRECKONERx
KANSAS = farside22
MONTANA = Pug89
NEVADA = DeathNote
OHIO = Vala Mal Doran
VIRGINIA = elvis_knits

[farside22]

EK has primarily been attacked for trying to confirm the two of us as town. I'm telling you I have a read of her as town. If I am killed and confirmed town myself, that means she went to a lot of effort to try to confirm a townie and you can be sure that my read of her is well-intentioned - both of these things make her more likely to be town.

Now you're just ignoring the point the reck and myself made about the confirmed town comment from EK. She calls you both confirmed town based on a weak reason. The role sent to the scum does not say they have a kill but again I could post a multitude of role PM that do not include that line when they send out roles. It's an assumption that mafia has a NK just because you talked about it in thread with this assumption does not make you town.

Farside, what don't you like about EK saying that in the case of a broken, extremely tedious strategy she'd replace out? I don't exactly get it; it seems like a null and normal reaction to me.

VMD said the same thing but a part of me see's this as either OMG I'm scum and doing this will get me the caught this sucks. Or it's someone who says they would rather scum hunt then break the game. EK's reaction seems like an emotional response to someone trying to break the game in order to assure a town win and not liking those odd's

As for who I would like to see imprinted: Thebuttonman, Recknor and myself.

I still haven't received an answer for how DN flip proves SC to be scum or town.

[elvis_knits]

Elvis saying 8-4 is unwinnable in regular mafia seems really, really incorrect.

I didn't say that, buttonmen did. Saying 8-4 is unwinnable without power roles. I'm the one who said that was wrong.

VMD voting Buttonmen, however, seems like a town tell. Imprint: VMD and Imprint: Buttonmen. I think we can gain valuable information from the two of them being power roles. The way I see it, they can't both be scum, so in my mind I'm imprinting one guaranteed (imo) townie, possibly two.

How is VMD voting buttonmen a town tell? She says she didn't vote him because she thought he was scum. I sympathize with her reason, which was frustration, but I don't think it's a town tell at all. I have excused her vote based on the overall feel of her play, but this is not a town tell at all.

Also, I have a problem with you wanting to imprint both on the thinking that they can't both be scum. Even if you think there's one guaranteed town there, and possibly two, it sounds like you think there's a good chance one is scum. I don't think you should be imprinting anyone you think has a good/reasonable chance of being scum. It seems like the only thing you're sure of is that they aren't both scum. So what if one is scum and one is town? 1:1 is hardly worth it to us, since scum will retain their power for the rest of the game and town will not.

I think we have to be much more careful with imprints than this.

Imprint: Reckoner. I'm the only person I know isn't a rogue at this point, though I have hunches (VMD).

I'm not comfortable with you imprinting people because of hunches. I need to atleast hear more reasoning about why you feel this strongly about VMD.

I'm not a fan of e_k telling us she sucks at being scum and then trying to give us her scum meta in 182. I am highly suspicious of someone who tries to say they suck at playing scum. It's like when I used to go on beach trips with my grandma as a kid, and she'd say she sucked/didn't know how to play certain board games/card games, then would school us all. I KNOW YOUR TRICKS, GRAND-- I MEAN, ELVIS!

VMD repeatedly asked if anyone knew my meta and seemed paranoid that I was some awesome scum player because of my join date. That's really bad reasoning for suspecting someone, especially because I know that I do suck at being scum. But you don't have to take my word for it, and I wouldn't expect you to. That's why I linked to two recent games where I played to endgame, one as town, one as scum. This was so you could decide for yourself. I'm not trying to trick you, I'm trying to give you a chance to make up your own mind.

Oh, great. Here's Starbuck's catchup post. *sigh* Nothing to really comment on there.

...

Nothing to say about Starbuck at all? She wrote a whole lot the one day she was posting here. And you have NOTHING to say about her? Then you go on to say she's null until SC attacks her, so you are leaning town on her? She put out a lot of info, and you're talking about none of it. I would be fine with you having a town read of her if you actually had a reason. But you're making no comment on her. You have nothing to say about her, but she's town?

If she's scum, you're her buddy.

Also, equating Starbuck defense of DN to me and SC is not a fair comparison. We have a specific reason to think the other is town. Starbuck has no reason to think DN is town. In fact I think she put him at neutral but is defending him. That doesn't make sense.

---

Overall, with reckoner's catch-up post, my major problem is that I see a lack of reasoning for imprinting VMD, and for defending Starbuck.

Either of these actions could be okay if he had reasoning that made sense, but he doesn't. Reckoner seems to be imprinting VMD based on her vote on buttonmen (which was a vote for someone she didn't think was scum). Reckoner seems to be defending Starbuck for no real reason.

[elvis_knits]

Some of the other reactions I got from people have not seemed pro-town. They have seemed like panicked attempts to stop the town from confirming two town players.

Okay now that I pointed out the role and how it was written to the scum and how scum mods do not automatically put in their role PM's that scum have a kill between them how do you figure this clears you and SC?

I don't think I've ever gotten a scum PM that doesn't specifically lay out the night actions. Every time I have been able to kill, my PM has said something like "each night your team can target one player for the night kill."

I haven't seen PM's that don't mention the NK if the scum have one.

If you have seen this, I'm interested to see it.

[xRECKONERx]

I'm defending Starbuck for meta reasons, which I already stated. Also, I wouldn't say I'm necessarily "defending" her so much as I am saying I don't find her necessarily scum. See: her being listed as NEUTRAL and not TOWN in my scum chart.

And I'm imprinting VMD because she seemed the most townie to me in my re-read. By about page four I think it was, I was thinking to myself "Well, there's at least one obvtown". That read may weaken over time, but for now, it's as solid of a town read I'm going to get on D1.

[elvis_knits]

On Starbuck: I know people tend to see her as scum since I have experienced this myself. I have said that I don't want to judge her too quickly because of this, but that doesn't mean she gets a free pass. I still want to discuss her points, and try to decide her allignment. I question why you aren't really looking at her comments and are saying "nothing to see here!" And if you think DN is scum, why you aren't questioning Starbuck's defense of DN.

On VMD: why do you see her vote on buttonmen as a town tell?

[Pug89]

Limerickx's idea of imprinting one person then waiting for the night actions to proc is flawed. This assumes that killing roles can ONLY be given to scum. What if there's a town vig? What if scum no-kills? Too many holes in this logic.

I don't think it does. To me it seems like a way to get information about how imprinting works exactly and the kinds of roles possible.

I don't like the SC/elvis buddying. It's like they have a preformed alliance from previous games, and neither of them are actually considering that the other one could be scum.

I completely agree with you and that is the main thing that is bothering me about both of them.

Read that bit again, farside - I'm saying the VOTE ON buttonman for trying to break the game is scummy. I'm agreeing with you - button isn't scummy for trying to break the game but the vote on him is.

This as about VMD's vote right? I read that as more of a pressure vote than one actually indicating that she thought he was scum because of it.

I have a suggestion. Lynch DN, imprint me. If I'm wrong, and he's town, I'll be the next lynch, and I'll tell you all what my power was and where I used it and what I found. If I'm right, we lynch Starbuck and imprint me and elvis.

I don't like this. It ignores the fact that you can lie about your role and we would have no way to confirm it. I also don't like that you are trying to determine the town's decisions for the next day ahead of time. This plan puts way to much control in your hands and I don't fell comfortable imprinting you at all let alone by your self.

[Messiah]

I wouldn't say my read on you is indicative of my read on elvis_knits at this point. The opposite also does not apply.

The same goes for DN/Starbuck.

This. What you're suggesting, SC, is tantamount to us ignoring our own reads in favor of acting on yours if you flip town, or assuming the people you're calling town are scum if you flip scum. I don't consider that a viable strategy at all. Confirmed town are often incorrect and confirmed scum could have simply been bussing/distancing.

EK has primarily been attacked for trying to confirm the two of us as town. I'm telling you I have a read of her as town. If I am killed and confirmed town myself, that means she went to a lot of effort to try to confirm a townie and you can be sure that my read of her is well-intentioned - both of these things make her more likely to be town.

Now you're just ignoring the point the reck and myself made about the confirmed town comment from EK. She calls you both confirmed town based on a weak reason. The role sent to the scum does not say they have a kill but again I could post a multitude of role PM that do not include that line when they send out roles. It's an assumption that mafia has a NK just because you talked about it in thread with this assumption does not make you town.

Also this.

Also, equating Starbuck defense of DN to me and SC is not a fair comparison. We have a specific reason to think the other is town. Starbuck has no reason to think DN is town.

You're still ignoring the fact that your and SC's obvtown reads on each other are based on weak reasons.

[elvis_knits]

Also, equating Starbuck defense of DN to me and SC is not a fair comparison. We have a specific reason to think the other is town. Starbuck has no reason to think DN is town.

You're still ignoring the fact that your and SC's obvtown reads on each other are based on weak reasons.

No, it is not a weak reason. The odds of SC being scum who didn't know his NK mechanic are very low, IMO. I think it's massively unlikely. And his behavior since has convinced me further that he is town. I don't know why a scumSC would be making a plan that includes his death if he's wrong about DN. Unless they're scum buddies, and I don't think that's likely based on interactions.

If you think me and Sc are scum, you need to comment on this:

Ok, so you're saying the scheme was cooked up in the 40 minutes between Iam making that qualification and elvis asking me why I thought we would be in lylo after 1 night? It's possible, i guess, but I'd still say unlikely.

Essentially you are saying:

1) Elvis and I are scumbuddies.
2) I decided to obviously imprint my scumbuddy in my first posto f the game (the same one who happens to be the player I've played with most extensively on site.)
3) elvis and I seperately make comments that indicate we don't realise the scum has no night kill but in completely different ways. (This isn't an arranged plan yet, because if it was then elvis could have picked a buddy that didn't decide to imprint her first post to make comments that show the aren't aware of a NK.)
4) Iam clarifies this in thread.
5) Within 40 minutes of that post, elvis realises she could use this to our advantage and asks me why I thought we were in lylo.
6) I

ignore the question for plenty of posts and a day or two

, then elvis pushes the point and asks again, at which point I answer and she reveals her thoughts.

Now - all of that is possible, but I think obviously unlikely.

[Messiah]

The odds of SC being scum who didn't know his NK mechanic are very low, IMO.

As you probably already guessed, I completely disagree with this. There wasn't anything in the rules or role pm's that could lead anyone to believe that the scum didn't have a NK. And before you say it, no, I don't think it's even remotely likely that hyposcum-SC would have read the scum role pm and automatically assumed the scumteam don't possess a NK when hypotown-SC would have.(Actually, I don't think anyone would assume that, for that matter.)

If you think me and Sc are scum, you need to comment on this:

I don't. I think SC is likely scum, but that has nothing to do with you, like I said in my last post.

[elvis_knits]

Messiah, why do you think scumSC would offer to have us lynch him?

[Messiah]

And before you say it, no, I don't think it's even remotely likely that hyposcum-SC would have read the scum role pm and automatically assumed the scumteam don't possess a NK when hypotown-SC would have.

This should read: And before you say it, no, I don't think it's even remotely likely that hyposcum-SC would have read the scum role pm and automatically assumed the scumteam don't possess a NK when hypotown-SC woudn't have.

---

Messiah, why do you think scumSC would offer to have us lynch him?

There's more than one explanation that would make sense to me, but I'm a big fan of the one where there was almost certainly no chance anyone would go for his plan, it had the potential to make him seem town, and if for some reason we did go along with his plan he would at least get town-ek(Whom he would consider a substantial threat to his scumteam) lynched.

[elvis_knits]

If SC is scum, then his whole team has to be bussing him, because my theory is getting no support. I would think that if he's scum, be would have either said my theory was crap, or that he would agree with me to confirm himself and atleast one/some of his scum team would help him try to push his ideas through. If his whole team is just going to buss him then he should have never agreed with me to try to confirm himself. And don't forget the scum can daytalk. Their movements should be coordinated. In fact, I think a few people had disagreed with me BEFORE SC even posted on the topic. So if he's scum he had to know he was walking into a hornets nest. I doubt he would do it.

The lack of support for anyone indicates that we're not scum.

Because if we're both town, we are very dangerous to the scum team. Two confirmed town would narrow their lynch pool considerably and possibly make sure scum never get an imprint. At that point, they would probably lose, so they have to band together and discredit us. They cannot allow anyone to be confirmed town, let alone two people on day1.

Notice the amount of paranoia that surrounds me and SC. Some of it I think is well-intentioned, but notice how everyone is against us. Meanwhile we have Starbuck defending DN and lewarcher (both for essentially no reason), reckoner replaces lew archer and defends starbuck (for meta reasons while refusing to even comment on anything she's said). Interesting how the allegiance between starbuck and lewarcher carried over to reckoner. Axis of evil right there.

[xRECKONERx]

Two confirmed town

wut

[TheButtonmen]

Two confirmed town

wut

Serial and Elvis keep making fail plans that they say magically confirms them being town due to a mixture of bad logic and reading incomprension as far as I can tell.

[xRECKONERx]

Ah okay, just making sure I was going retarded or something. That's what I thought.

ATTN: SC AND ELVIS -

NOBODY IS BUYING THE WHOLE CONFIRMING EACH OTHER BULLSHIT. PLEASE STOP PUSHING IT. IT IS GETTING US NOWHERE. GOOD DAY.

By the way, one of them has to be scum because I don't know of a townie who would push so hard for the clear on another townie unless they were 100% sure. I.E., if one of them was scum, and knew the other wasn't on their scum-team.

Bottom line, nobody should be pushing that hard based on twisted logic.

[xRECKONERx]

*wasn't