Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD

[milkshake]

I should be prohibited from having an alt for the simple reason that I can't keep it straight who I'm logged in as.

I agree with Charlatan about Looker, actually. Refer to my original problem of there not being enough scum, though. Maybe Messiah is town after all and Peabody and Looker are left? Or Messiah and Looker. Still guessing Messiah and Peabody though to be honest.

Why do you think we only have a two person scum team?

Uhm, I don't obviously. For a moment I was confused about whether we had lynched two scum or one (I think the CooLDoG thing confused me).

[Hoopla]

Hi. This next post will be dealing with some vote-count analysis, perhaps the most effective, consistent way of catching scum. Please don't dismiss this as wifom, because it is

not

.

hiphop

(7):

Sposh

, Peabody, Hoopla,

CooLDoG

, charlatan,

milkshake

, AlmasterGM

AlmasterGM (2): Looker, Messiah
Peabody (1):

hiphop

Not Voting (2):

Coco

,

Empking

Current thinking:

There is probably two scum left, and I don't think they were both bussing hiphop, nor do I think they were both voting Almaster. I deem it a strong chance there is one scum on the hiphop wagon, one off.

The casual observer may interpret this as merely a guess, but I put a lot of stock in my theory about a collective consciousness as scum. It's a psychological effect that warps scum's play - they subliminally tailor their play to comply with what they deem as appropriate stances for townies to take, but they have the added goal of not being tied with each other in the event of one of them dying. In this sense, it's very impractical for all scum to share the same views, as this creates strong ties. Many scumteams will spread their suspicions enough to blend in and minimise/muddle ties.

This vote count I've shown is very informative. I seriously doubt Looker/Messiah are both scum together (this is even without factoring my town read on Messiah). I also doubt both scum bussed, but to a lesser degree. I also think this is a strong town tell for Peabody, which is where hiphop left his vote at the end. Usually this is a good tell by an inexperienced scum player - they're trying to divert attention from themself and get a wagon on someone else (usually town). At the time of hiphop's vote, he only had 3 people on him, so I don't consider this an attempt to distance himself from Peabody.

--

I'm going to talk about some more vote-counts soon, but my preference for lynch is charlatan. I'm having trouble quantifying my gut read due to his large walls of text, but I endeavor to fix this through some more vote-count and wagon analysis.

Also. We are NOT lynching Peabody today. If I can't get charlatan, Looker will do, as this lynch will be very informative of Messiah's alignment.

[charlatan]

It's best if you try to run up a vote on someone for reasons other than fuzzy logic about psychology, like evidence. Vote analysis certainly has its place, but so far you're doin' it wrong. This can be manipulated any way you see fit, which bothers me a bit.

For instance, if you're playing a probability game, why not shoot for either Looker or Messiah, since by your guess there's a 50/50 of hitting scum there? Or a 100%, since you said you pretty much accept Messiah as town?
You expect others to follow you to a 25% lynch but paint it as an equally good choice for two reasons:

1) Because you dismiss yourself as an option (no more free passes.)
2) Because Peabody is the first on the hiphop wagon. (This means nothing, which I can explain in full if you're curious.)

[charlatan]

EBWOP: Not the first on the wagon, but early on it.

[Peabody]

Interesting insight by everyone.

I'm still pretty sure Looker is mafia. I've got a lot of schoolwork that I've been doing, so I'm sorry I kinda just flaked out over the last two days.

And why am I at L-1??

[AlmasterGM]

Oh man, could it be true? It's what I've been waiting for this entire game...

The chance to hammer Peabody.

The temptation is literally overwhelming. There's no claim, but I don't care. I want blood. I NEED blood. Blood for the blood god. Mmmmmmmmmm...STOP. HAMMER TIME.

Somebody please unvote because I don't think I can resist much longer. Seriously. And Peabody, if you're going to claim, it'd better not be "plain old vanilla ice cream."

Anyway, I really like Hoopla's theory and want to roll with it. I also like another theory that I have which I am going to keep to myself for now. I also think we can all agree that Looker's record over the course of the game hasn't been at all clear (I'm not going to rehash it unless people want me to).

Vote: Looker.

[charlatan]

And Peabody, if you're going to claim, it'd better not be "plain old vanilla ice cream."

For the record, I agree with this statement more than I've agreed with anything anyone has said yet this game.

[Looker]

vote peabody

[Looker]

intentionally unbolded for you paranoid types

[AlmasterGM]

intentionally unbolded for you paranoid types

Can you quote the last clear and concise post you made that actually said something useful?

[Hoopla]

It's best if you try to run up a vote on someone for reasons other than fuzzy logic about psychology, like evidence. Vote analysis certainly has its place, but so far you're doin' it wrong. This can be manipulated any way you see fit, which bothers me a bit.

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

--

For instance, if you're playing a probability game, why not shoot for either Looker or Messiah, since by your guess there's a 50/50 of hitting scum there? Or a 100%, since you said you pretty much accept Messiah as town?
You expect others to follow you to a 25% lynch but paint it as an equally good choice for two reasons:

This is valid, and I probably wasn't very clear in regards to this point. I factor in process of elimination to determine the possibilities. For example, there is almost no way Looker/Messiah are scum together, but there is a small chance they're both town, and both scum were bussing hiphop.

I see hiphop either being bussed by one or two scum, with a 75/25 preference for one. I know you think I am manipulating data to fit my suspicions, but I feel very confident about this, and am probably failing to explain my methods properly (I want to try again soon). I find it difficult to comprehend any scum teams without you on it, sorry. =/

Peabody is town guys, get off his wagon.

[AlmasterGM]

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

This made me LOL.

Can we lynch Looker now?

[Hoopla]

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

This made me LOL.

Can we lynch Looker now?

Would you like to lynch charlatan with me?

[AlmasterGM]

Would you like to lynch charlatan with me?

It's not on the top of my priority list, but if I can't have Looker, I'd be down with that.

[Hoopla]

Would you like to lynch charlatan with me?

It's not on the top of my priority list, but if I can't have Looker, I'd be down with that.

Okay. I'll get Peabody and milkshake to help us out.

[charlatan]

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

I suppose what I'm suggesting is something specific. For instance, borrowing your same math, I can suggest that the most likely possibility is that the remaining scum are you and Messiah, saying obviously I'm not scum and I have a strong town read on Looker that I don't want to explain. See how easy that is? Note: I don't really think that's the case; what I'm saying is that you seem to be basing a case on something that points to multiple outcomes and choosing one arbitrarily. If I am, in fact, lynched because everyone is content to follow you, remind me to revisit this in the post-game because it's kind of a neat theory discussion.

I see hiphop either being bussed by one or two scum, with a 75/25 preference for one. I know you think I am manipulating data to fit my suspicions, but I feel very confident about this, and am probably failing to explain my methods properly (I want to try again soon). I find it difficult to comprehend any scum teams without you on it, sorry. =/

I do agree to some extent, at least on the most basic level. The difference is, I see the team as mostly likely Looker + yourself, Peabody, or Almaster in roughly that order, though I'm having a hard time with scum #2. You jump a few scum points in this, not because you're accusing me (frankly, it hasn't been done enough this game), but because you're selective with what your theory points to. For instance, everything about your own analysis points to Looker as the most logical lynch (and I assume you think Looker and I are the most logical scum partners), but you're trying to derail that bandwagon to lynch elsewhere.

[Hoopla]

But I don't think Peabody is scum, and I know I'm not scum. It leaves you and Almaster on hiphop's wagon, and Looker/Messiah off the wagon. I'd rather lynch from that pool. I get your point about taking myself out of suspicion - but I am not going to suspect myself. Others can do that. I think there is more chance of scum being on hiphop's wagon. That's why I want to lynch from there.

Whoever's wagon I'm trying to derail (if I'm scum), why wouldn't I just hammer Looker or Peabody? I've expressed enough suspicion on each of them to get away with it.

[charlatan]

I get your point about taking myself out of suspicion - but I am not going to suspect myself. Others can do that.

I wonder if they will. And perhaps now is a good time for you to share why Messiah is town? I know you didn't want to tell us before, but it's important for me to develop my read on you.

Whoever's wagon I'm trying to derail (if I'm scum), why wouldn't I just hammer Looker or Peabody? I've expressed enough suspicion on each of them to get away with it.

I don't actually think that's true. Besides, the game's not over yet. Asking "if I were scum why wouldn't I be doing this thing? Since I'm not, I'm town" is pretty much WIFOM.

[Peabody]

Hoopla, I'm not convinced Charlatan is mafia, however I admit that I haven't really considered the possibility too much.

I don't really understand why I am at L-1 when hardly any concise case has been posed against me. Messiah's vote on me is based on instinct?? How do I defend against that? Looker's case on me is based on me being on every lynching wagon? Did she forget the fact that I was on most of these wagons very early on?

I'm glad Hoopla is joining us once again, and I believe her insight is very crucial. It definitely makes sense that there would be one scum on the hiphop wagon and one scum off the wagon. But I disagree that it is more of a chance to find scum ON the wagon. Either Looker or Messiah is probably mafia. I'm STILL leaning towards Looker based on NAW's refusal to vote for hiphop and Looker's constant insistence to shoot down confirmed townies.

[Peabody]

Whoever's wagon I'm trying to derail (if I'm scum), why wouldn't I just hammer Looker or Peabody? I've expressed enough suspicion on each of them to get away with it.

Sorry double post:

Using this logic, there is probably at least one or both scum on my wagon considering that I haven't been hammered yet.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I'm not convinced Charlatan is mafia, however I admit that I haven't really considered the possibility too much.

I agree he hasn't done anything too scummy - he's a good enough player not to leave too much - and my read is more based on my other town reads. There are not many other places I can see scum.

[Messiah]

After I catch some sleep I'm going to re-read and attempt to pinpoint my gut read on Peabody; failing that I will reassess my vote. At this point I'd most likely vote Looker in the event that I unvoted Peabody.

I see the team as mostly likely Looker + yourself, Peabody, or Almaster in roughly that order, though I'm having a hard time with scum #2.

Did you inadvertently leave me off of this list, or has something changed since post 799?

[charlatan]

Did you inadvertently leave me off of this list, or has something changed since post 799?

You are one of my top picks in that I firmly believe either you or Looker to be scum. However, of the two of you, I find her more likely. The fact that I have been grilling you extra hard lately is not indicative of how highly I suspect you -- rather, I wanted to see more reactions from your corner and did as I always do in that situation.

[Hoopla]

Did you inadvertently leave me off of this list, or has something changed since post 799?

You are one of my top picks in that I firmly believe either you or Looker to be scum. However, of the two of you, I find her more likely. The fact that I have been grilling you extra hard lately is not indicative of how highly I suspect you -- rather, I wanted to see more reactions from your corner and did as I always do in that situation.

Do you believe Looker and Messiah can be scum together?

[charlatan]

Do you believe Looker and Messiah can be scum together?

Yes, but it seems very unlikely that they'd vote the way they would have had to on Day 1 for that to be the case. I find Looker very scummy and Messiah slightly scummy independently of each other, but as a pair they simply don't make much sense.