Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

[elvis_knits]

Vote Count, Day 2

hiphop ( 0 )
shotty to the body ( 0 )
charter ( 0 )
crypto ( 0 )
CSL ( 0 )
elvis_knits ( 1 ) - Vi
Energetic Penguin ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 0 )
imaginality ( 0 )
Infinis ( 0 )
EtherealCookie ( 0 )
Maemuki ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
sigma ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Vi ( 0 )
Unvote ( 19 ) All others
Total Votes ( 20 )

With 20 alive, 11 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 12th, 10am EST

Pfft @ Vi

You can WIFOM until the cows come home, but the fact that I was on the scum list of a dead townie does not make me scum.

You already see how 2/3 of his reads flipped town. Not everyone on that list can be scum. Nobody is that good.

And even if you want to go down that road, you already have imaginality who had a good reason to kill crypto. So I don't know why you are dragging me into it.

I would rather look at the wagons... I like that it's day 2 and we already have two dead from wagons (I'm counting confid).

[Maemuki]

Vi, why e_k over me for example? We all know crypto suspected me waaaay more. Also that could be scum framing e_k.

Right now? You. Wishy-washy wagon jumping with poor reasons. Do I even need to explain?

[Vi]

Hey puppy, that reasoning would be great if I didn't already have reason to suspect you yesterday.

@Maemuki: Please do. I'd love to see an opinion you didn't steal from someone else.
Also, why so desperate to jump in front of e_knits? And where did crypto suspect you "waaaay more"?

[elvis_knits]

ConfidAnon

( 10 ) - sigma -

CSL

- roflcopter - elvis_knits - Pads - Vi - Sotty7 - popsofctown - energetic penguin - charter

CSL

( 15 ) - RedCoyote - sigma - Pads - crypto - popsofctown - roflcopter - Infinis - shotty to the body - charter - hiphop - idiotking -

hoopla

- imaginality - Vi - Sotty7

People who were on both wagons:
Sigma
rofl
Pads
Vi
Sotty
pops
charter

A lot of these people have a playstyle that would make them on a lot of wagons. I would expect rofl, Vi, charter, to be on a lot of wagons, and seeing them on both does not surprise me. I think we have to look more at their reasoning and overall play to finish the read. Rofl and charter are playing exactly how I expect them to play, and I understand their reasoning. Vi I am not getting much reasoning from. She says her targets have not changed, but I remember her being all over the place. Also she is laying lots o crap on me.

Dead townie suspected you!

is crap.

I'm surprised to see sigma, and pads on both wagons. I don't know them very well, but they don't strike me as real wagoners. Especially since pads wasn't even around that much, if I remember correctly. I guess if anyone else has a better meta on them, I'd like to hear it, but they strike me as the most opportunistic on the wagons. If you don't post much but you're on both wagons, that's suspect. Pads seems to have better reasoning though so I favor sigma here.

Pops and sotty probably strike me as the most protown of the bunch. sotty especially I remember being well-thought out yesterday.

So if I was going to vote one of the people that was on both wagons I'd say it would be Vi, sigma or pads.

vote sigma

Preview edit:
Vi -- what are your reasons for suspecting me? And why can't you summarize them when you vote me? I don't remember you saying anything that was really well-founded.

[Maemuki]

@Maemuki: Please do. I'd love to see an opinion you didn't steal from someone else.

*claps hands* With this, I assume you have no comeback, correct? Correct.

Also, why so desperate to jump in front of e_knits? And where did crypto suspect you "waaaay more"?

I'm not desperate, I'm just saying that that logic of yours has some serious flaws. I was just pointing them out. She could have been framed, that's all.

*raises eyebrow* Read D1 and come and talk to me. Crypto was on my back on pretty much the whole day.

[Vi]

If you want wagon analysis, it's over here.

sigma (109) - Sotty7, Infinis, Vi, RedCoyote,

Hoopla

SpyreX (248) - Pads, Vi, RayFrost, Budja, hiphop, Hoopla, roflcopter

ConfidAnon

(395) - sigma,

CSL

, roflcopter, elvis_knits,

Hoopla

, Vi, Sotty7,

popsofctown

, charter

Idiotking (585) - RayFrost,

Hoopla

, sigma, elvis_knits

Energetic Penguin (606, 678) - hitogoroshi, popsofctown, hiphop,

imaginality

, Vi

crypto (675)

- charter, elvis_knits, Energetic Penguin, roflcopter

CSL (801)

- RedCoyote, sigma, Pads,

Idiotking,

crypto

, popsofctown, roflcopter, Infinis, charter, hiphop, Idiotking,

Hoopla

,

imaginality

, Vi

Cut by scum: Will respond in a moment if you don't accuse me of spamming the thread

[Vi]

Edit to previous post: ConfidAnon's name should be in green and bolded.

Fixed

----

Lets say you are the only one who has a say in todays lynch. Who is your pick and why? Picks two and three would be nice too.

Lynch preference is currently somewhere around this order:
*elvis_knits (weak presence throughout, chasing easy targets, covering her poorly-advised jump on the crypto wagon with

"I didn't read the N0 flavor"

, not getting an updated avatar of the puppy)
*Energetic Penguin (may be a n00b, but a n00b with awfully convenient timing!)
*Hoopla (not at all seeing the Hoopla-obv-Town, definitely seeing the Hoopla-obv-wagoning - plus that blatant misrepresentation of me apparently defending crypto was

really

telling)
*RedCoyote (I believe in my meta tell)
*Maemuki (her recent posts have been

everything

they've been picked apart for, previous Town read be darned)
*imaginality, Budja, Infinis, etc.

Note: Bonus negative points for the bolded because

the Mafia would know that there's only one scumgroup

; it would make sense for a Mafioso to assume as much instead of just going off of the title like the plebes.

Okay, crypto is prob right there are two scum teams. I didn't pay that much attention to the flavor or think it might be literal, but I guess it's possible he did.

Back to Idiotking... his csl vote does not impress me

unvote; vote idiotking

Aww, you can't do that. Not only are you deflecting to some random n00b who has no other votes, but you're desyncing your vote from your scumpartner Hoopla

The crypto wagon (see previous post) was hilariously scum-driven, and of course you were on it.
Similarly, your wagon-based reasoning for suspecting Pads and sigma seems kind of lacking atm. Did you look into the contexts in which they voted CSL/ConfidAnon?

----

@Maemuki:

*claps hands* With this, I assume you have no comeback, correct? Correct.

I have no idea how you confused "Please elaborate" with "Yes Maemuki you're absolutely correct".

*raises eyebrow* Read D1 and come and talk to me. Crypto was on my back on pretty much the whole day.

While he did make a case on you and there was a spat between the two of you midDay, reading him in isolation that doesn't comprise many of his posts, let alone "the whole Day".

And again, jumping in front of e_knits is very much against your usual approach to this game (asking people lots of questions). Plus

elvis_knits:

only one game post at this time, voting vi for a dodgy reason. keeping an eye on her.

Why single out a person that only

posted once and RVS voted

when the game started yesterday and there are more people of that kind?

My guess it's that e_k decided to use the fact that Vi never saw the "I don't know you I vote you" method before as her random vote. But each to his own. That's something that e_k has to answer, not me.

Oh, this is nothing new? And this is the only time you mentioned the puppy yesterday? Great!

[Maemuki]

And again, jumping in front of e_knits is very much against your usual approach to this game (asking people lots of questions).

Well, mind to refresh my memory then? When did you call e_k scummy yesterday? So I can see what your reasons were. Aside from being on crypto's wagon of course.

I have no idea how you confused "Please elaborate" with "Yes Maemuki you're absolutely correct".

Because you didn't make an effort to deny it. That's why.

[Idiotking]

I had this post made shortly before D2 started, and damned if I'm not gonna post it anyway.

-----

Shit. I knew I'd feel bad about not giving a replacement a shot. Oh well... what's done is done.

Now, I finally get to do something useful, sort of, maybe. Here's a list of the top bandwagons of D1:

ConfidAnon ( 9 ) - sigma - CSL - roflcopter - elvis_knits - Pads - Vi - Sotty7 - charter - Energetic Penguin
Energetic Penguin ( 5 ) hitogoroshi - popsofctown - hiphop - imaginality - Vi
crypto ( 4 ) - Hoopla - elvis_knits - Energetic Penguin - roflcopter
CSL ( 15 ) - RedCoyote - sigma - Pads - crypto - popsofctown - roflcopter - Infinis - shotty to the body - charter - hiphop - idiotking - hoopla - imaginality - Vi - Sotty7

Actually, Charter, roflcopter, Vi, sigma, Pads, and Sotty7 were all on both the Confid and CSL wagons. I get the feeling that at least half of these folks are scum, if not more.

Nobody is on all the wagons (though there may have been some votes/unvotes that changed things), but I do note that Vi and roflcopter are on three of them, and that Vi voted for 8 different people throughout the game. To me, this looks like he swapped back and forth between players, trying to get something to stick and then push it. I get the same feeling from elvis_knits, who voted 5 times and lurked through the majority of the Confid situation. She was also one of the ones who blindly switched over to crypto after he said that there were two scumgroups. Then immediately afterwards, once it became clear that crypto had some basis for what he was saying, she essentially said "oh, sorry, I wasn't thinking" in ISO 23-25. Wouldn't it have been a good idea to analyze the sitation on her own instead of blindly follow charter's statement? I also note that her votes were always on the "popular" lynches and almost always coming

after

someone else had presented a case. This is just bad play on her part, and I think it indicates that she doesn't really care who gets lynched, so long as someone does. As a result,

Vote elvis_knits

[EtherealCookie]

Finished catching up, given someone requested that I don't do a post-by-post analysis I'll just post my thoughts on who's scummy and who isn't soon. I'm a bit busy at the moment.

[elvis_knits]

@Vi - your only point against me seems to be that I vote crypto. I saw him make an assumption that I thought only scum would know, and so I voted him. When I realized that he had legitimate reason to think that, I unvoted him.

@idiotking - when did I lurk? I've posted every day in this game, multiple times. Accusing me of lurking is BS. And accusing me of lurking during the confid situation.... what do you mean? I voted him. I've adressed the crypto stuff with Vi, and as for me voting "popular lynches"... I don't care. I don't even think that's entirely true, but if I think the top suspect is scummy, I am going to advance that lynch and line of questioning. That is how you learn something in this game, from pressuring people as a group, not by everyone spreading their votes out.

You're just voting me now and hoping I become the flavor of the day, and everyone will forget about how crappy your vote on CSL was.

[sigma]

I'm surprised to see sigma, and pads on both wagons. I don't know them very well, but they don't strike me as real wagoners. Especially since pads wasn't even around that much, if I remember correctly. I guess if anyone else has a better meta on them, I'd like to hear it, but they strike me as the most opportunistic on the wagons. If you don't post much but you're on both wagons, that's suspect. Pads seems to have better reasoning though so I favor sigma here.

Could you clarify 'opportunistic'? Generally I see that word applied to someone who gets on bandwagons, but I was more a starter of wagons D1, so that doesn't make sense. Is there something else I'm missing here?

I don't know who to vote for at this time. I'm going to take a look at SpyreX and the folks who were on 2 or more town wagons.

[Vi]

And again, jumping in front of e_knits is very much against your usual approach to this game (asking people lots of questions).

Well, mind to refresh my memory then? When did you call e_k scummy yesterday? So I can see what your reasons were. Aside from being on crypto's wagon of course.

I know English isn't your first language, but it has to be pretty hard for you to miss me answering this question

in the same post you're responding to

.

I have no idea how you confused "Please elaborate" with "Yes Maemuki you're absolutely correct".

Because you didn't make an effort to deny it. That's why.

Asking you to explain yourself because I'm fairly positive your "logic" won't hold up under scrutiny qualifies as making an effort to deny it.
You can stop playing word games and

explain yourself

anytime you like.

---

@Vi - your only point against me seems to be that I vote crypto.

Not true, but it's the only one you can try to defend.

---

My bandwagon analysis in 905 is better than everyone else's; use it

[charter]

vote Vi

because she is scum. Will have more later when I have more time.

[crypto]

Ha
Haha
Hahaha
AhahahahahAHAHAHAAHAAAAAHUAHAUHAUHU AGHGHUYUGGH (chokes)

(Drops dead.)

[roflcopter]

opinions of mine that have changed or strengthened in significant ways. if you don't get a mention you're either too invisible or i still think whatever i thought yesterday.

maemuki is probably NOT town. sorry for the mixup yesterday folks, she put on a good show to begin with but has lost some serious steam since then.

sigma i somehow don't have any real read on. this is only notable because he was a minor wagon and seemed to have posted a lot yesterday, but nothing he did really sticks out to me. further reading is necessary.

shottytothebody is town

pops is still town

charter is still town (and if he wants to sway me over to lynching vi today, i might be open to this)

redcoyote i'm about 50/50 on at this point

spyrex might still be scum

infinis is probably still scum

vi is still making me feel meh for unquantifiable reasons, but today i am going to dance a happy dance because we are in agreement about at least one major point. speaking of which...

elvis_knits (i'm sad to say) is the lynch today

vote: elvis

[SpyreX]

Actually, Charter, roflcopter, Vi, sigma, Pads, and Sotty7 were all on both the Confid and CSL wagons. I get the feeling that at least half of these folks are scum, if not more.

I agree, to an extent. HALF may be pushing it - I don't expect them to be THAT obvious.

However, of that list, I'd definitely not be surprised to see a third. Namely Pads and another (Vi / Sotty / charter). Not sure yet though.

But, back to the big one:

CSL (801) - RedCoyote, sigma, Pads, Idiotking, crypto, popsofctown, roflcopter, Infinis, charter, hiphop, Idiotking, Hoopla, imaginality, Vi

Of THAT list the ones that make me go huh are: Pads, pops, charter, hiphop. Vi, if scum, is probably not scum WITH imaginality.

---

Now, on a setup line - the kills last night DONT make full sense to me. With a dayvig yesterday AND three last night that lends one to think (Mafia/Mafia/SK). However, why in the hells bells would they kill crypto after all the flak? If it wasn't for the vig yesterday I would have all but assumed that was a vig shot - but two vigs? Unlikely.

I'm missing something (and I don't think its as clear cut as Vi's business on e_k) but it'll come to me.

---

THAT SAID:

Vote: Pads

Vig, shoot e_k plox

[imaginality]

*scratches "Bah, go scum!" into the wooden wall of the sauna shortly before the heat overwhelms him*

[roflcopter]

imaginality made two votes over the course of yesterday: energetic penguin and csl. he sat on his penguin vote for a long while and made random comments from a comfortable position on that inconsequential bandwagon. i'm most interested in the people he found scummy but didn't leave e-penguin's wagon to actually vote for. there are a couple of other important notes too. here goes.

on elvis v. crypto:

elvis is right re. calling people town, crypto looks scummy

without providing any reasoning, he throws his weight behind elvis.

also note the hypocrisy in supporting elvis for calling mae town (above) then calling mae scum (below).

people he started out calling scum and never voted for:

mae is scummy (e.g. 360)

Hoopla's 417 is good points against IK

IK(431) is all kinds of wrong

IK can you point to any completed games you replaced out as scum?

in particular, idiotking gets a serious tongue lashing (at least, as serious imaginality ever got around to giving, and yet without ever mentioning anything in particular from penguin, that's where he drops his vote?

also, this is a direct defense of spyrex. known scum defending you for no apparent reason? yeah thats generally some kind of sign.

SpyreX wagon sucks (as of page 9) reasons-wise (fine if it's just for the sake of wagoning)

the interaction with rayfrost centered on imaginality iso post 3 (specifically ray's side of it, the two ray posts bookending it) gives me a warm happy not scumpartners vibe.

in comes the crypto wagon, and a series of sudden about faces from imaginality:

I think Hoopla and charter might both be town though which would mean the scum on the wagon are EnergeticPenguin and elvis_knits. Oh and maybe rofl too.

first of all, wasn't he just supporting elvis against crypto? naming elvis as scum all the sudden (but again keeping e-penguin at the forefront for no apparent reason) reeks of distancing. reeks of it. i get thrown into the pot too here, probably as a wishy washy insurance thing in case real suspicion of me ever builds up.

I'm also keeping a close eye on IdiotKing - his fence-sittingy post (652) gave him ample room to join the wagon but makes him look good if it goes nowhere.

i actually pounced on this when it happened, but now that we know he was scum, his unwillingness to ever put idiotking in actual danger while making random points against him is distance-tastic.

Of course, all this doesn't mean crypto is definitely town, he could just be on the different scumteam to EP/EK/IK. But I'm not convinced by charter's 682 about crypto backing down in 676. I think crypto is most likely town.

here's another heel face turn he made in this post, suddenly backing crypto (but still hedging his bets). i get the feeling crypto was rabid enough to scare him off of directly supporting elvis against him.

Anyhow I like my vote on EP even more now. EK would be a good vote too though because of this plus being on ConfidAnon wagon (like EK) plus the deflection thing. I think we should wagon one of the two of them, I don't mind which but EP still has more votes on him (I think) so I'll keep my vote on him.

keeping your scumpartner at spot number two on your scumlist is a

classic

scum move. the "penguin wagon is bigger" non-excuse for not changing ever after presenting an overwhelming amount more evidence against elvis is just icing on the cake.

Maemuki's sniping of crypto from the sidelines looks scummy, and in other news the case against CSL also looks good to me. Conversely, I think Pads and RC are more likely town and I like Sotty's posts too.

this seems like easy distancing from mae and more buddying up to crypto. he also lays the groundwork for hopping on csl later.

i have a hard time categorizing all the people he's calling town (remember he got in on the hoopla and charter town love earlier too), but its very likely he threw a scumbag into the "i think these people are town" bonanza for variety. something to keep an eye on.

he used it to accuse idiotking of exactly the same thing - not taking a stance on anyone and leaving himself room to adjust his views to get in line with what other people are thinking.

More scum points to Imaginality for softly accusing like fifty different people of scumminess.

Not seeing either point. In that post:

People I said look scummy: EP, EK, Mae, IK, CSL
People I was ambiguous about: Hoopla, rofl
People I said look towny: crypto, charter, Pads, RC, Sotty

well he's got the reserve townie on his scummy list, who he later hammered, and i'm pretty sure at this point that e-penguin is town too. i would say that at least two of elvis, mae and idiotking are scum.
the ambiguous list is all town obv
crypto goes on the town list along with charter who i have a town read on and three people i have had a very hard time reading. again, something i'm keeping my eye on. there's probably scum on that "towny" list.

2. because I was the one who brought up the case against Mae, and if you look, Imag has a scum read on Mae. If he thinks Mae is scum, why is he so quick to be leaning toward a scum read on me?

Multiple scum groups means this point fails.

what appears to be evidence of a single scum group means this point wins. obviously it turned out crypto is town, and its looking more and more like mae is scum with imag

I like how you say this without commenting on the fact that I repeatedly tried to point out that it was an assumption. I made it very clear that I thought it was

stupid for people to vote for that reason

.

Tempted to vote crypto, but it's

a reasonable assumption to make in a game this large, isn't it?

The 'but it's...' implies that's why you were 'tempted to vote' for him. So you were tempted to vote for him for a stupid reason?

I agree that your following posts were more clearly against voting him for that reason, but the 'tempted' in that first post in the sequence sounds more fence-sitting-y.

again, post after post dedicated to idiotking, or mae, or elvis knits, or befriending crypto, and yet his vote sits on e-penguin, who he never actually makes a real point against.

conclusions

elvis is scum. lynch her now please.
mae is very likely scum.
idiotking is very likely scum.
spyrex is still in the might be scum category.

e-penguin is town.
rayfrost is most likely town.

This post is 1167 words. Way over the 750 limit.

[roflcopter]

i completely forgot about the word count rule. sorry for blatantly breaking it. won't happen again. i also broke my first quote tag because i'm on a roll today.

Fixed the quote tags. Sent a PM warning for good measure, but I know you realized it pretty quickly

[SpyreX]

Sans one major issue in your conclusions (and the non-addition of Pads) I could get behind that list.

[roflcopter]

obv i understand you disagreeing with me calling you scum. but i hope you understand where it comes from, since imag directly defended you in his first post.

otherwise, yes, pads could very, very easily be the guy on imag's "town" list that is a scumpartner. he's still not the best lynch today because of the weight of evidence against elvis, mae and idiotking.

another note: imag totally ignores a lot of people, but ignoring vi (by far the loudest player in the game) is definitely quirky. don't know what to make of it yet.

[hitogoroshi]

I haven't posted too much so I'm once again go throw down some AioI. Basically like roflcopter except complete sentences. :p

**

I'm not so sure I think the CSL wagon has a lot of scum on it. He more or less made the case against himself, and while that makes it a safe wagon to be on it's also a very safe wagon to NOT be on and still be confident it'll happen.

**

I agree with Spyrex 916 (two posts up) that the kills are pretty odd. I wouldn't be so quick to assume there aren't two vigs, though (or a double-kill vig? Do those exist?). This doesn't seem like a system we can game all that much. (And no mafia # on imaginality. Does that just mean they don't distinguish the two mafia's when dead, or...?)

**

I've suddenly got this little feeling that there could be a good number of scum not on any wagon - the long game-day was very short in terms of real-life days and I could see scum intimidated by the pace and just trying to stay out of the crossfire (see what I did there?). Either that, or just voting on the noncontroversial wagons like EP or CSL. Of course the former would implicate me as scum and the latter clashes with what I said earlier - but I'm just trying to get ideas down right now.

**

I really don't like Pad's 888. I think part of it is that it read so similar to 619 - with the same stand-offish self defense and pretty damn similar lists. With the sheer insane pace of this game I'm inclined to think of certainty and consistency as somewhat scummy. Of course, most of what I don't like about that post is more subconscious than that, but apparently we're voting with our guts now, so

vote: pads

.

**

That previous vote should be in no way construed as me accepting the existence of EP in any way. But with the start of the new day he gets a few posts to actually try to contribute.

**

Preview-edit: Looking at rofl's post made me realize I should sort by imaginality and see what comes up. I'll try to keep my analysis slightly shorter I will say that that post makes me like rofl much more, but I want to view it all again myself before I pass judgment on rofl's list.

[SpyreX]

obv i understand you disagreeing with me calling you scum. but i hope you understand where it comes from, since imag directly defended you in his first post.

otherwise, yes, pads could very, very easily be the guy on imag's "town" list that is a scumpartner. he's still not the best lynch today because of the weight of evidence against elvis, mae and idiotking.

another note: imag totally ignores a lot of people, but ignoring vi (by far the loudest player in the game) is definitely quirky. don't know what to make of it yet.

Yea, and of course I'm of the mind that was pre-prep for a bus of one of his buddies who was on it.

I'm on Pads for the lynch because I'm rooting for the vig to shoot ek. If that doesn't happen I'll swap.

[roflcopter]

oh yeah, dayvigging elvis would actually be great. not only would it free us up to lynch more scumbags, it would free me from the onerous task of lynching someone i like so much.