Newbie 848 - The Bunny Mafia Family - over finally!

[Nachomamma8]

Why did you suspect them?

[Incognito]

Vote Count #1 of Day 3

Netopalis (1) <-~ Nachomamma8

Not voting (5) <-~ Bwian, Netopalis, Haylen, Jase, Vel-Rahn Koon

With 6 alive, 4 votes will do it.

Monday, December 7th at 4 P.M. EST.

[Netopalis]

VRK for his odd attacks, tunneling against Sposh and urging of a quicklynch with statements like "Why is Sposh still alive?" and use of poor scumtells. Humor is not a scumtell, nor are connections until it is shown that a person is mafia.

Haylen should have known better about the D1 No Lynch. I find it a little too convenient that she didn't - she's a very experienced player who has certainly seen multiple number analysis of games. Further, she has seemingly jumped on anybody who is not her through her posts. I find her defenses to be weak at best.

[Nachomamma8]

VRK for his odd attacks, tunneling against Sposh and urging of a quicklynch with statements like "Why is Sposh still alive?" and use of poor scumtells. Humor is not a scumtell, nor are connections until it is shown that a person is mafia.

Haylen should have known better about the D1 No Lynch. I find it a little too convenient that she didn't - she's a very experienced player who has certainly seen multiple number analysis of games. Further, she has seemingly jumped on anybody who is not her through her posts. I find her defenses to be weak at best.

What do you mean, odd attacks?
VRK was voting for Haylen at the end of the day.
"Use of poor scumtells"? Describe some.

What's scum motive for getting a no lynch as opposed to a mislynch? Why are her defenses weak?

[Netopalis]

Odd attacks and poor scumtells meaning his attacks on Sposh for "a good deal of joking at the beginning of the game" and the use of connections to players that are not confirmed to be town or scum. Yes, VRK was voting for Haylen at the end of the day, but in his first few posts he pushed heavily against Sposh. My personal theory is that he is scum who wanted to push the town towards Sposh but not end up on the final wagon against him.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

No more votes on Neto, as we are in LyLo today. If two Townies put votes on another Townie it sets up a quick lynch scenario.

If we have a Cop they should claim now so that we have time to discuss the validity of the claim. If there is a Cop and all your investigation targets are dead, you should NOT claim. A Dcotor should NOT claim.

Nacho, why the sudden interest in Neto? Was this brought on from that one intro post of Day 3 or is there more to this?

I'm still in favor of lynching Haylen. Bwian, we are not back at square 1. Haylen used bad arguments, bad logic, and was generally scummy all day yesterday. Her previous play doesn't suddenly get erased because we lynched a Townie, who by all accounts was a leading contender for the lynch yesterday.

I agree with your sentiment that we shouldn't rush a lynch, but we don't suddenly give up on valid points against Haylen. If that's not what you're saying in post 496, then I need you to correct me, but that's what I'm seeing.

Neto, where did I urge a quicklynch? One post? That's urging a quicklynch? Not hardly. What connections are you talking about in 502? Was I tunneling on Sposh yesterday? If you had said I was tunneling on Haylen you might have something.

I mentioned Sposh's joking around one time. Joking around is fine, but Sposh took it over the top. That, to me, says that he doesn't know what he's doing. That's effectively a null tell in a Newbie game. But his later behavior is scummy, so I was assuming that the joking around indicated that he was newbie scum who didn't know how to get started pushing a case on a Town player.

I'm also not very happy with your willingness to jump back and forth between Sposh and Haylen yesterday (to a degree) and then suddenly switch to me for reasons that you haven't really given examples for. This is what Haylen did all day yesterday. What makes you think that I'm going to let you get away with it any more than I let her?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

What I mean by jumping back and forth yesterday for Neto are these posts (since I didn't include them in the last post):

Iso Post 12 where he states that he has a scummy read on Sposh, scummy-ish on Haylen.

Later in Iso Post 32 he states that he doesn't see the case on Sposh.

Two posts later in Iso Post 34 we have Sposh picking up steam behind Haylen.

This sounds like you're hedging your bets between the top two candidates yesterday.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Sorry for the triple post, I need to gather my thoughts before I post.

I still would rather lynch Haylen today, but I think that Neto is quickly becoming a candidate for her partner based on the fence-sitting from yesterday and the nebulous attacks today.

[Bwian]

Bwian, we are not back at square 1. Haylen used bad arguments, bad logic, and was generally scummy all day yesterday. Her previous play doesn't suddenly get erased because we lynched a Townie, who by all accounts was a leading contender for the lynch yesterday.

I agree with your sentiment that we shouldn't rush a lynch, but we don't suddenly give up on valid points against Haylen. If that's not what you're saying in post 496, then I need you to correct me, but that's what I'm seeing.

You change the meaning of what I said. I never said we were back at square one or that we should disregard from past events. My point was that it is strange to continue after a mislynch as if nothing happend.

I was certain that Sposh was scum. Obviously I was wrong. And I wasn't the only one. A majority of us were wrong. I need to look into all past events from a new perspective. Of the players voting Sposh we are four still alive. Though not certain it is likely mafia might have been assisting in a mislynch.

[Jase]

I just did an iso read of neto, and I think he's my second choice for a lynch. Though he is still far behind haylen.

iso posts 2-4 are fluff.

iso 6: Is a sign of active lurking "I'm here. Nothing to say"

iso 7: More active lurking. Says he's waiting around for replacements.

iso 8: Looks like he's trying to lead the town into a no lynch, stating that it's "the only logical play"

sio 9: Tries to justify his lack of activity by saying that he had posted something significant earlier but no one responded. 1. He hadn't really posted anything of consequence yet. 2. That's no justification for sitting around doing nothing.

iso 10: More pushing for a no lynch.

iso 14: After being criticism for waiting for replacements he decides that we may want to lynch someone who was about to be replaced.

iso 15: More fluff

iso 17: Post his thoughts on everyone. Has nothing negative to say about anyone but haylen for her unvoting D1, which had already been said.

iso 20: Votes haylen using the reasoning provided by others.

iso 22: Fluff

iso 24:

Oh, I agreed before that not ALL players were equally scummy, just that almost all players in this game are scummy.

As for Bronco's fault D1...Looking back, maybe not AS MUCH, but certainly at fault for being a pathetic bump.

Says that most players are scummy although this is a contradiction of his analysis from iso 17, and the only players he seems to think are scummy enough to comment on are haylen and bronco.

That's about all I have to say about his D2 play. Now on to D3.

iso 38: Leading the town into lynching haylen or vel.

iso 41: Weak reasoning for why VRK is one of the two suspects that "are the only two options".


Again I still think haylen is the best lynch, but tomorrow neto will certainly be worth a look.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Thank you for correcting me, but I'm not understanding what you mean by "it is strange to continue after a mislynch as if nothing happend. "

[Netopalis]

I'll be by to respond a bit later - I don't have time to do a full analysis right now...Just wanted to let you all know.

[Bwian]

Thank you for correcting me, but I'm not understanding what you mean by "it is strange to continue after a mislynch as if nothing happend. "

What struck me as strange is that Neto already had narrowed his mind down to two names. And there wasn't much information to ease my confusion to how he did it.

Netopalis, in your analysis in 436 you considered VRK pro-town but you held suspicion against myself and Jase. What made you change your mind?

[Netopalis]

Fair enough about not urging a quicklynch, VRK - I think I took some of your posts a bit too strongly. Now that I've had time to rethink exactly why I'm suspecting you, it's because you tried to put suspicion on Sposh while hardlining Haylen. That being said, I still think that Haylen is a far better play today.

Bwian: Between 436 and here, we have a large number of arguments between VRK and Haylen that are a bit more aggressive than I feel that the situation merited. He seemed rather convinced that Sposh and Haylen were the scum, far more than I would expect a townie to be.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Bwian: Between 436 and here, we have a large number of arguments between VRK and Haylen that are a bit more aggressive than I feel that the situation merited. He seemed rather convinced that Sposh and Haylen were the scum, far more than I would expect a townie to be.

How do you get that I feel "convinced" that Sposh was a scum? Do you feel that everyone else was also "convinced"? There was an even split between Haylen and Sposh yesterday, and everyone had both of them as their top two suspects. There was no way anyone else was even close to consideration yesterday as scum, so even if I was "convinced" that Sposh was scum, I don't see how you can try to hold that against me considering the way he acted yesterday.

If you're going to say this about me, you also have to say it about Jase, Haylen, Bwian, Nachomamma8, and MichelSableheart, who were the people who were actually voting for Sposh yesterday.

Neto, please go back to post 505 and answer the questions I posed to you. Because this is the 2nd time you've brought this up concerning Sposh, and you still haven't answered the rebuttal from the first go around.

I'm not going to argue against being convinced that Haylen is scum, because there's no way she's not. Every single one of her attacks yesterday were based on bad logic, emotional appeal, dismissive behavior, and downright scumminess. Town don't need to use bad logic and emotional appeal and act scummy to get their point across, scum do. So sure, I'll come right out and say that yes, as the day went on yesterday and Haylen presented more and more bad cases I became convinced that she is scum. I still am, because I've seen nothing to indicate otherwise.

[Jase]

Do you intend to ignore my 509 neto?

[Netopalis]

Sorry, I've been rather busy lately. Full analysis of both questions to follow within the next 2 hours.

[Netopalis]

VRK:
In re 505, looking back at your posts in non-isolation, it doesn't look like so much of a quicklynch. When I read your posts earlier, they were in isolation and combined they seemed to be pushing the town towards moving a bit too quickly for my tastes.

I say tunneling against Sposh for two posts in particular.

413 is the one that most piqued my interest. I really, really don't like the line "Lots of scumtells - why is Sposh still alive?" To me, that is an extremely bold statement that is not really supported in the later parts of the post. Yes, he is inconsistent, but his inconsistency (to me) appeared more newbie and fail-town.

435, you say that you understand that I don't feel that the burden of proof has been met, but you disagree anyway for reasons not really stated.

Later, you switch to Haylen for what I believe to be valid reasons. However, to me, I could easily see scum starting in on accusations against Sposh, knowing that he is town, then switching gears against Haylen so that if/when Sposh is lynched, you wouldn't be on the wagon.

However, as I said before, I think that the case is much weaker here than against Haylen. The only reason that I bring it up is that, on a reread keeping in mind Sposh as town, this looked like a bit of an opportunistic shift.

____

Jase:
I won't lie, I've not been at my best in this game. I inadvertantly joined 3 games that ended at roughly the same time, which coincided with some significant projects at school. For that reason, this game has been on the backburner. However, I am hoping that I can change your read on me based on improved analysis and scumhunting today.

[Nachomamma8]

@VRK: If you are a townie, are you willing to risk the entire game on the fact that Haylen is scum? Because after your statement in 514, I'm willing to bet my head on the fact that one of you is scum. So would you agree to being lynched after a Haylen town flip?

[Netopalis]

Nacho, I'm not really sure that I like setting up sacrificial plays that way. Unless VRK is a cop, he can't know 100%, and if he isn't scum, that could lead to a mislynch.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm not going to argue against being convinced that Haylen is scum, because there's no way she's not.

That sounds like 100% certainty to me... Does it to you?

[Netopalis]

It sounds like he's convinced himself, but unless he's mafia or a cop, he doesn't have that sort of information, you see?

[Haylen]

Umm...I dont want a haylen lynch. I'll post more when i get back from lectures.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@Neto, post 517:

I didn't bother to state any reasons in 437 because I thought that what I had brought against Sposh and Haylen in my intro post was enough information for people to see where my top two suspicions lay. My point was that I saw scummy, you didn't. If I had to go back and do it again, I'd approach it the same way.

@VRK: If you are a townie, are you willing to risk the entire game on the fact that Haylen is scum? Because after your statement in 514, I'm willing to bet my head on the fact that one of you is scum. So would you agree to being lynched after a Haylen town flip?

Realize Nacho, as I stated in my first post of Day 3, that today is LyLo. If we don't lynch scum today then there is no tomorrow.

It sounds like he's convinced himself, but unless he's mafia or a cop, he doesn't have that sort of information, you see?

Neto, you should never answer for someone else, especially if it is a direct question. Nacho may have been looking for a specific line of reasoning or some clue, and you negated that search by answering for me.

You can infer from my first post of Day 3 that I am not a Cop, since I said a Cop should claim to clear innocents unless that person is dead. And I would have investigated Haylen last night to be sure. So in this case I've only convinced myself. My posts may sound sure, but that's only because I can't see how Haylen is not a Mafia based on her play. Can anyone find anything remotely redeeming about any of her posts up to this point in the game? Was I wrong on any point brought against her?

I don't think that I am, which is why I'm so sure. I don't have hard proof to back it up. All I have is my personal experiences. That's a complete 7for7 statement, so don't take that as me saying that I know 100% that she's scum. I'm going off of what I read throughout her game play so far, and everything that she's posted has been filled with scumminess. That's why I'm convinced. It's up to the rest of you to decide whether my case is worth a damn or not, based upon what all of you have read.

It's been said before - think for yourselves. You've all been playing the same game I have. Either I'm reading her wrong or she's scummy. Personally, I think she's scummy. I think that she's scummy enough to say yes, I will vote her today and risk losing the game if she flips Town.

I would like to see VRK lynched for the reasons I put forth at the end of Day Two, and I agree, i should've known better about the no lynch on day one.

Umm...I dont want a haylen lynch. I'll post more when i get back from lectures.

This is what Haylen has given us for Day 3. Wasn't one of the reasons for not lynching her and going after LurkerTown Sposh so that we could get more info out of Haylen today?

Two posts in four days is what that extra info has gotten us so far. Basically you're doing just enough to not get replaced, while neatly ignoring the posts brought against Neto. In other words, fence-sitting and actively lurking.

[Haylen]

Screw that. I'm gonna explain why in the post im writing at the moment.