Mini 854 - Dice Mafia (Over)

[Sanjay]

Hey, everyone!

I'll get started on an extensive re-read. There's almost two game days of posts here for me to get through, so it will probably take a while.

[Sanjay]

I'd rather lynch an absent Rosso than an active lewarcher. If deadline nears, I'm jumping ship to Rosso. This is pathetic.

Cam

I don't understand this post at all. In the posts preceding it, you demonstrate that you are well aware of the town option to no lynch. Why would deadline approaching make you want to vote for Rosso more exactly?

Does the passage of time somehow make Rosso more scummy or something?

I have nothing against a no lynch, this is a nightless game, but I am still convinced that Le Chat is scum. My opinion on the present situation is explained in posts 104 and 108.

Do you mind explaining how you went from having a gut feeling about le Chat to being convinced that le Chat is scum? This seems like a bit of an inconsistency to me.

Also, after yesterday, why were you so willing to put le Chat within the reach of my predecessor's mighty hammer powers?

[Sanjay]

Do you not understand the arguments against you or do you just want people to restate them?

[Sanjay]

lewarcher82, you seem to be operating under this ridiculous assumption that Mafiosi are incredibly transparent and act as anti-town as possible all the time. The fact that you failed to lynch someone doesn't prove you aren't Mafia at all. (The fact that I didn't hammer you doesn't prove I'm not Mafia either, despite what you have said)

Inconsistencies are much more the hallmark of Mafia than overtly anti-town play. You supposedly were concerned about the Spammah Hammah and yet you have twice acted in a way that did not mirror that concern.

[Sanjay]

lewarcher82, explain why you changed your mind.

[Sanjay]

No, why did you change your mind about putting Nacho in a position where Rosso could end the day?

[Sanjay]

lewarcher82's defense has been just ridiculous. As far as I can understand, the two basic points of lewarcher82's argument are:

1) I am town and therefore cannot be scum.
2) It is illogical to be suspicious of me because the case is so thin.

The first one is kind of useless and the second one is kind of off-putting, especially considering we are on page 6 and we can't get big fat cases at this point.

But I don't know whether this case is town-ridiculous or scum-ridiculous. I tend to agree with mathcam that the frustration seems genuine.

lewarcher82: do you have any games you can show us where you defended yourself like this as town? Why is your defense so ridiculous?

As much as I would like to hammer someone while I have the double vote, I don't really want to hammer lewarcher82 today. Today is probably going to end in a no-lynch.

As for a claim, though, I wouldn't terribly mind one. With no nightkill, claiming becomes a lot less risky for town. If there is some kind of mafia powerrole it could end up having anti-town affects, but if there isn't it seems like it could only help.

[Sanjay]

Oh, I didn't notice lewarcher had already posted.

We can't test the "town-aligned" part of lewarcher's claim, but we can test the "weighted dice" part of it pretty easily by no lynching and seeing if he gets a double vote again.

[Sanjay]

It does seem like kind of a ridiculous role for mafia to have though.

[Sanjay]

Excedrin, why do you think mathcam and le Chat would be the two scum and not me?

[Sanjay]

I thought you were assuming the two scum were unaligned.

[Sanjay]

Shoulda hammered someone when I had the chance.

What do you guys think about a mass claim? Mafia could lie as long as they could think of something that they could fake, but since they can't nightkill it seems like a lot of the drawbacks of a mass claim would be negated.

[Sanjay]

Well, I probably am not townish enough to get away with this, but I'd really rather not go first.

[Sanjay]

I think your Rosso Carne read is kind of shaky because I think both scum and town would be crazy to hammer lewarcher82 unless it guaranteed victory.

So I was kind of discounting it.

[Sanjay]

Based on your assumption that there are two scum AND your assumption that those two scum win when they equal half the town, you have eliminated from consideration mathcam, Excedrin and me as scum. Do you therefore conclude that the scum are le Chat and yourself, lewarcher82?

[Sanjay]

You seem pretty sure scum win when they equal one half of the town, huh?

[Sanjay]

You didn't though. What's the deal?

[Sanjay]

Vote: le Chat

[Sanjay]

Nah.

[Sanjay]

But come on though. Let's lynch le Chat.

[Sanjay]

Actually, I'm not really feeling the le Chat wagon anymore.

I don't think he's actively lurking so much as lurking site wide. Not really scummy.

I thought I remembered having a scumread on him but looking back on the thread I can't remember why.

unvote

Not that my little vote matters any.

mathcam, why unvote lewarcher82? Do you think he is less scummy now?

[Sanjay]

That's cool. Anyone you want us to lynch in the mean time?

[Sanjay]

Yeah, I agree with that but let's lynch mathcam.

[Sanjay]

What don't you like about my unvote?

It more or less fulfilled any purpose I could see it fulfilling. You guys all reacted and it's not like I'm going to pressure le Chat any if he's not here.

I'd say my scumlist right now is probably:

mathcam
Excedrin
le Chat
lewarcher82

But I feel kind of ambivalent about it.

[Sanjay]

Well, it wouldn't have been a tragedy if we lynched le Chat.

I voted le Chat because I remember having a scumread on le Chat. I know it sounds stupid to say, but I didn't remember why, and when I re-read the thread, I still couldn't remember.

But yeah, let's lynch mathcam.

In loving memory of my predecessor:

Vote: mathcam

HAMMAH!

[Sanjay]

Maybe. Sometimes people do look scummier posting than not posting.

Sorry dude. Hope you're scum.

[Sanjay]

Hi Casey, thanks for replacing.

It's surprising that after mathcam's lynch the game didn't end. Obviously there's another scum.

Vote distribution today implies that it takes two to lynch (Sanjay + one of Excedrin / lewarcher82), but nobody's unlynchable (Casey + Excedrin + lewarcher82 = 5 votes).

The 3 posts starting here stand out to me now.

Hi, Casey!

I'm pretty psyched about all the votes I have. Wooo.

In what way do those posts stand out to you, Excedrin?

[Sanjay]

In what way do those posts stand out to you, Excedrin?

At that time, I thought that 1 scum was likely. My post was about lewarcher82's idea that we had 2 aligned scum. That you apparently assumed there were 2 unaligned scum is odd.

It could be a case of what mathcam was talking about (and that I dismissed) regarding Nachomamma8 and lewarcher82 (supposed inside info regarding the setup).

I wasn't assuming there were 2 unaligned scum though I thought that was a pretty good possibility given this is a town of only six people. And I thought your argument to be arguing for that possibility.

And it seemed like you were treating me as town after making that argument, which seemed weird because the basis for your town read on me was a basis you were rejecting. That's why I was questioning you.

I get now that you weren't even thinking about unaligned scum.

For what it's worth, I feel like mathcam's alignment implies that the scum are aligned. I feel like if otherwise, it would be something like Mafia A or SK or something instead of just Mafia.

[Sanjay]

Probably not pointless.

But even though he was scum, I do agree with mathcam. They wouldn't necessarily quickhammer just because it was three town to two scum.

Though given mathcam's role, you'd think he'd be quite eager to hammer people.

So I guess le Chat now Casey looks kind of suspicious because of that.

[Sanjay]

I'd like Casey to claim, personally.

[Sanjay]

I'm really sorry to hear that, Casey.

If you don't feel up to posting it's fine if you replace.

Though if you do feel up to posting, I'd like a roleclaim.

[Sanjay]

Do you have a reason for not wanting to claim, Excedrin?

[Sanjay]

Wow, fastest recovery ever. It seems like willing yourself better makes you better. I still have a sore threat and plugged up ears, but no more fever or anything!

Give me a moment and I'll read the thread soon. I'm Snake Eyes, so I always get only 1 vote.

By the by, I'm skeptical that if this is Casey's role that it is a town role and I am skeptical that this is Casey's role.

Because it's an absolutely terrible role. It's worse than vanilla townie. I feel like there has to be more too it than that.

lewarcher82, did you ever consider the reason why it matched your expectations so perfectly is because you made your expectations super-obvious?

[Sanjay]

Casey, since you are so sure that Excedrin and I are town, I have a suggestion:

Come tomorrow, if I understand lewarcher82's role correctly, he will only have one vote. Come tomorrow, if I understand your role correctly, you will only have one vote. Either way, if we are left with Excedrin, myself and one of you, Excedrin and I will be able to lynch them.

So here's the plan:

We lynch you today and we lynch lewarcher82 tomorrow.

I'm a lot more comfortable with your lynch since I'm more skeptical about your roleclaim and also because I think mathcam not hammering you was suspicious.

But assuming you have a normal town win condition, you win either way.

What do you say, Casey?

[Sanjay]

Casey, why, from your perspective, don't you like my plan?

[Sanjay]

And yeah, I noticed that Mathcam made so many ties to me that it's ridiculous.

Also, what ties between you and mathcam did you notice? I only mentioned one.

[Sanjay]

Of course I neglected to answer that question. It's stupid.

[Sanjay]

As for your second question, I think it might have been me that brought up non-aligned scum. Why don't we both look it up?

[Sanjay]

Because I'm starting to believe that my initial thoughts were right - that either you or Excedrin are scum. (and as a side, in my second question, I meant "non-aligned scum")

So in other words, your plan is to lynch me and lewarcher and that will somehow give you the win? Pardon me if I'm not completely sceptical about this.

You also neglected to answer my question to you: Why are you persecuting me for my role?

Also, what made you start to believe your initial thoughts were right? You said you were "confident" the scum were aligned in post 226. What changed?

[Sanjay]

I apologize if I hurt any feelings, Casey, but I'm not going to take seriously a question where you equate suggesting your lynch with persecution.

Are you unclear about why I think your role is suspicious?

[Sanjay]

And yeah, I noticed that Mathcam made so many ties to me that it's ridiculous.

Also, what ties between you and mathcam did you notice? I only mentioned one.

Also, please answer this.

I know it is kind of a double edged sword where you'll have to answer for all the evidence you bring up, but I kind of think you just said this because mathcam was your scumbuddy and you are worried that there'll be lots of connections between the two of you even though you don't know of any.

[Sanjay]

Why were you looking for connections between you and mathcam, Casey?

[Sanjay]

In that case the question is "why would le Chat mislead the town about his role?"

[Sanjay]

Casey, help me out with something.

What exactly happened between post 226 and post 233 that changed the way you felt about the idea of an allied scumteam?

[Sanjay]

lewarcher82, if you'd like roleclaims from each of us, please pick who you would like to go first.

[Sanjay]

Oh, I kind of wanted to go second, so if you'd like to go first, go ahead.

[Sanjay]

I'm a red die, also a vanilla townie.

[Sanjay]

Right now my list of suspicions from scum to town goes:

Casey
Excedrin
lewarcher82

Casey is far and away the most scummy. But, assuming everyone's roles work the way they say they do, this puts me in an interesting situation.

If we lynch Excedrin, Casey will be lynchable tomorrow.
If we lynch Casey, Excedrin might not be lynchable tomorrow.

So the trade-off is between voting the most scummy person today by risking my chances to lynch the second most scummy person tomorrow and ensuring a lynch is possible today and tomorrow but lynching the less scummy person first.

I think the better call is to lynch Casey.

Because worst case tomorrow from my perspective (assuming my town read on lewarcher82 is accurate) is lewarcher82 has one vote, I have one vote and Excedrin has two. If lewarcher82 and I can both agree to lynch Excedrin, we can just no lynch until we are in a situation where Excedrin is lynchable.

So there's no real need to lynch one of the claimed vanillas just so we can get two lynches.

[Sanjay]

Excedrin, do you have a reason why you think lewarcher82 is town? Do you actually think lewarcher82 is townier than me?

[Sanjay]

(I'm not saying he's not, I'm not saying he is, I just wasn't sure when you said "That sums up my feelings pretty well, just replace "Excedrin" in your post with "Sanjay"" how literally I could take that.)

[Sanjay]

I expected the dice-roll rules to be included in all claims. Perhaps I am missing sumthin, but I still dunno how many votes does Exce get.

Anyway, I keep thinking that Casey is probably town. It seems unlikely to me that such a weak voter can be last mafia: consider that Cam was extremly variable, he got 1 to 3 votes, apparently regardless of the number of players, therefore I would expect the last mafia to be a quite strong voter.

There's no such "quite strong voter" around, lewarcher82. Both Excedrin and my votes have been directly in keeping with our dice rolls. For all you know either Excedrin or I is lying, but you have no reason besides not trusting us to believe our roles are any more powerful than anyone else.

Besides, your idea that the second mafia would be a strong voter is, I think, in error.

Think about it:

If town had mislynched yesterday, we would be left with two mafia. If both of them were relatively strong roles, the game would be over. Mafia could control the lynch and After just two mislynches. Seems a little harsh to me. Lovers gets away with it but that's because in that game the town only need one lynch to win. It actually seems MORE likely that the second scum would be someone with a weak role than a strong role.

Also, mathcam's role seems CRAZY powerful for scum. I don't know exactly how mathcam's "Gets-More-Difficult-To-lynch-When-He-Hammers-Er" ability worked, but a mafia role that can make itself more difficult to lynch seems kind of ridiculous to me. It makes the endgame sneak up on the town a lot faster than it would otherwise.

Besides, think about yesterday. If mathcam had this supervoting scumbuddy, why wouldn't he hammer le Chat? That would send him into a situation with two mafia and two town where one of the mafia was more difficult to lynch and the other mafia was a strong voter. Those are some really good mafia odds.

I think setup speculation makes Casey look more scummy, not less. And, conveniently for me, my view of the setup matches exactly with my reads on people.

[Sanjay]

Excedrin, if you'd like to lynch Casey right now, I'm perfectly ready. For reasons only slightly strategic and mostly sentimental, I'd like to hammer.

If you are suspicious that I have some kind of power that activates after hammering three people, you are welcome to insist that you hammer, but I'd personally be a lot more comfortable the other way around so as to prevent any secret hammer activated abilities you have.

But, more importantly, I want to honor the memory of Rosso Carne, who is the coolest mafia player I have ever replaced in for.

[Sanjay]

lewarcher82, you are assuming that the mafia win condition is "lynch all townies". Casey might very well win if her lynch becomes impossible and might even win if ever mafia equal town.

Unless you know the mafia win condition, I don't understand why you are so sure Casey is town.

Anyway, you can prevail in LYLO just as much as you ever could no matter who the lynch is. So can Casey. Assuming everyone is being honest about their roleclaims, you need to be involved in tomorrow's lynch no matter what. The most votes either Excedrin or I could have is 2, and that's not enough to secure a lynch.

[Sanjay]

As far as your thesis goes, that's awesome! Congratulations.

As far as the game goes, I have a question:

If you ignore setup speculation, do you really have a town read on Casey? Or is your belief she is town solely based on your beliefs about the setup.

[Sanjay]

That's some pretty nice selective quoting there.

Yeah, the part I quoted didn't make that much sense. Unless we have a lewarcher82-Casey endgame, your lynch becoming an impossibility is never going to be relevant. It probably was an error on my part to mention it because it isn't that important.

Did you not read the rest of my quote? The part about how you could win if the mafia equal town?

Explain how all this means I am scum, Casey. You should have a pretty amazing case because apparently in your eyes there is no way I am town.

[Sanjay]

If you really think there is no way I am town you have a profoundly bad imagination.

[Sanjay]

Vote: Casey

[Sanjay]

Vote: Casey

[Sanjay]

VOTE: CASEY

HAMMAH!!!!

[Sanjay]

Thank goodness. After Excedrin decided not to wait for Casey's case on me, I was almost positive he was town, and I was almost positive lewarcher82 was town since he started this impassioned defense of Casey. I really have no idea what I would do if I had to lynch one of them.

Bad luck, Casey, that we had enough votes to lynch you without lewarcher82's permission. But good luck that you rolled a one on day 4. I'm really, really, sorry if your feelings were genuinely hurt!

mathcam, you hadn't done anything enormously scummy, but the problem was that no one had and you were the best choice. I'm sorry if you felt like your lynch was kind of arbitrary.

lewarcher82, I did call you out for having ridiculous defenses and I stand by that, but your defenses were also effective. Thanks for being so clearly town.

Also, told you so.

Excedrin, we make a great team! I was so pleased when you said "we should lynch mathcam or Sanjay" and I said "Okay, I choose mathcam" and you said "Okay". That was some really compelling scumhunting there.

Empking, I really enjoyed the setup! Thanks a lot for letting me replace in.

le Chat and Nacho, I'm sorry I didn't get to play with you. You seem like fun players to play with.

And lastly, Rosso Carne, I hope I made you proud.

[Sanjay]

And as for day 4, it's always a little disconcerting when another player seems to agree with everything you say, but it was also kind of nice.

[Sanjay]

True. I don't know how you could have talked your way out of that one.

If you somehow managed to get Excedrin or I lynched and you were lucky enough to roll another 1 you would have a shot. It would have been a monumental task to even get to LYLO.

You certainly played well enough in a terrible situation.

[Sanjay]

No worries. Your impassioned defense of Casey was actually pretty awesome, because it allowed me to have a ridiculously solid town read on you.

If for some reason I was wrong about Casey, even though I was pretty sure about Excedrin being town, it would be a pretty easy decision in LYLO.

[Sanjay]

Empking, if I could make one suggestion, even though the roles are closed and the flavor is unknown, I would have suggested the mafia get a safeclaim.

Not that I needed any more evidence against Casey, but the fact that we had scum-boxcars and claimed-snake eyes did seem a little suspicious to me.

If I was in Casey's situation, I very well might have fake claimed.