Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[Kublai Khan]

Mod: We really do need more frequent vote counts, please and thank you

Damn, last vote count was only a little over 24 hours ago. You guys have been busy bees.

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 5

charter

- 1 - SerialClergyman - (L-4)

Debonair Danny DiPietro

- 3 - Socrates, mathcam, Hoopla - (L-2)

Raskol

- 3 - Cyberbob, charter, Raskol - (L-2)

SerialClergyman

- 1 - Debonair Danny DiPietro - (L-4)

Players not voting:

None

[charter]

Serial, your charter vote has, yet another, hole in it. You weren't in the game at the time, I believe, but there was a horrible wagon on me for a large part of day one. Peabody was on said wagon for awful reasons.

It seems like you've pinned yourself in to a corner here with your scumteam theories, since none of them are making sense. The most logical explanation is you know they are bogus.

Reviewing DDD's case and my own earlier one on SC...

[SerialClergyman]

Yeah, I used to think that but I iso read Peabody and he never tries to Lynn or pressure you. I'd urge everyon to look at Peabody posts, after the vote he rarely even mentions you, and when he does it's half good and half bad.

I had thougt about that issue after my attempted vc analysis though.

Charter, do you still think raskol is scum now that you think I am?

[SerialClergyman]

Also, you're talking big about big holes and terrible theories but that's the first concrete objction you've made.

[charter]

Of course he doesn't try hard to lynch or pressure me. He knows I'm town and doesn't want to be responsible for being a major part in a town lynch. But if he can contribute to it with his vote and pull a fast one, great job for him.

I think there's a pretty good chance both of you are scum. After your unvote, it makes a lot more sense to me to lynch you first, since you have motivation to unvote him if you're scum regardless of his alignment.

[SerialClergyman]

Your argument is that peabodys vote on you clears
you. That's only true if he was
genuinely trying to push your lynch. If he wasn't, as you say, why should it be an argument that you are town?

[SerialClergyman]

And if your reason for voting me is my unvote being scummy, why were
you shaping up to vote me before that incident happened? You just said earlier that your unvote and asking for a
vote count was you shaping up to vote me.

[charter]

Oh, well the reason I was thinking of switching is because I was thinking Raskol wouldn't be able to actually get lynched. However, since my unvote, I'm finding that each scumteam theory you come out with seems less likely than the one before it, and like I said, the probable explanation is that you know they're bogus.

[charter]

As for why I was thinking of switching to you, it was mostly that of everyone but Raskol, I found you most suspicious.

[Hoopla]

Oh my god, this is such a mentally draining game. It seems every time we get close to a lynch we pussy out and have to put someone new under pressure.

While I'm rereading I'd like to point out how assumptive SC's theory is. Creating a process of elimination which is heavily dependant on unknown alignments not being scum together seems like a recipe for disaster.

We should not be lynching by a plan riddled with leaps of logic and from a player who is relatively scummy. The only way this plan could even be considered looked at is if we lynched SC and he flipped town, so we know his motivations were pure, because at the moment I am not convinced.

[Hoopla]

SC, you state in your theory that CoCo and le Chat cannot be scum together, but then also say this;

So if I assumed coco and le chat are town

, then mathcam has to be and vaya is as well, plus I'm town. So we're left with

Why aren't you acknowledging the possibility of one of CoCo/le Chat being scum with someone else, rather than whittling down the scumpair to Hoopla/Cyberbob/charter? How are both automatically town in your mind? It seems quite unusual when both these players are the owners of the largest wagons today.

[SerialClergyman]

I address that in 1312.

If raskol is town, ddd has been pretty ballsy in not going for the self preservation.

Like charter, you've described a theory riddled with assumptions but only really highlighted one possible contender. More is good.

[Hoopla]

I address that in 1312.

If raskol is town, ddd has been pretty ballsy in not going for the self preservation.

So, you see this as unlikely? I think it would be a feasible scum tactic to try and smash the Raskol wagon, rather than jump on it with bad reasons. This gains town credit and increases the likelihood of generating a wagon elsewhere.

[Hoopla]

If vaya and CoCo are town, mathcam is town.

I also missed your reasoning for this. How does this make cam town?

[SerialClergyman]

Why is generating a wagon elsewhere a good idea? If the raskol lynch is derailed, he was the obvious next step. Even when raskol was voting him he didn't counter, and he was upfront about his plans and target when I asked him about them. Seems town to me.

As for cam, hard to find on the phone but at one point we had an almost inevitable coco vs vaya argument that he broke up. If they are both town, massive town tell for cam.

[Hoopla]

Why is generating a wagon elsewhere a good idea? If the raskol lynch is derailed, he was the obvious next step. Even when raskol was voting him he didn't counter, and he was upfront about his plans and target when I asked him about them. Seems town to me.

As for cam, hard to find on the phone but at one point we had an almost inevitable coco vs vaya argument that he broke up. If they are both town, massive town tell for cam.

He would be the obvious next step if (town) Raskol was lynched too. It would be a better long-term survival plan if he attempted and succeeded in getting a lynch elsewhere. He the gets town points if Raskol flips town at any stage.

--

To be fair, your theory is better than I originally gave it credit for, but not by much. My main issue is the sheer amount of assumptions it works off. And although a lot of them are seemingly unlikely to be wrong, if just one is, your entire theory comes down like a house of cards.

These aren't the odds, but imagine if all your assumptions carried a 90% chance of being right (which is I think generous), 4-5 assumptions means there is a decent chance of one being wrong. Offer a 1/10 chance continuously, it'll be hit eventually. Then also include the possibility of you being scum, and it does not become a viable theory.

If it at some stage you flip town, and a couple other variables have proved to be true, it would certainly be worthwhile looking at your suggestion. I say that even knowing I am one of those in the firing line.

[SerialClergyman]

To nitpick - even five 90% chances is still 60% of being right, and if I'm right I crack the game wide open from a bad place. But that's facetious, I understand you were using that as an example only.

Both you and charter have been hard pressed to come up with serious holes in the theory despite feeling like there were on first glance. The issue of me possibly being scum is hard to relate to, I can only keep coming out with my current best theory. And as for the style - my town style is to crack out the reads on day three, so I'm just crossing my fingers and going with what my head and gut are telling me.

Hoopla - give me some feasible scum teams? Mos of the ones I think of contain you, sorry to say.

[charter]

Serial, from what I gather, this whole thing stems from "if you think raskol is town". First, there's really no reason to think this in the least. Second, you, up until very recently, supposedly thought he was scum. What has changed this?

It seems like you've now shifted to charter/Hoopla because you can't come up with a plausible buddy for Raskol. That's really not a good reason to write off Raskol as town, which is what I think you've done.

[Hoopla]

To nitpick - even five 90% chances is still 60% of being right, and if I'm right I crack the game wide open from a bad place. But that's facetious, I understand you were using that as an example only.

But if you're wrong, you nearly lose the game from a winning place. Isn't five 1/10 chances, 50%?

--

Hoopla - give me some feasible scum teams? Mos of the ones I think of contain you, sorry to say.

To be honest, I haven't thought extensively about likely partners just yet, but I think there are far more possibilities than the ones you've narrowed it down to.

[Cyberbob]

It seems like you've now shifted to charter/Hoopla because you can't come up with a plausible buddy for Raskol. That's really not a good reason to write off Raskol as town, which is what I think you've done.

SC's dancing around like water on a hotplate. My guess wpuld be either that he's protecting his buddy or that he has finally found an excuse to not be on a town wagon that's likely to result in a lynch.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, this is by far the most controversial assumption. If my alignment was confirmed, we could simply use a lynch to find out, but i doubt people are going to be champing at the bit to go along with that. I just am looking at the make up of the game, looking at who is likely to be with who and I don't see it.

On the contrary to you, though, I think not having a scum partner possible is a very good reason not to be voting someone.

The reason why I'm starting to seriously get into the new theory is that I've decided I just totally don't agree with raskol's play, then tried to analyse it from ther. You yourslf said he was anti town and you didn't care if he was scum or not when you voted him. I still do care if he's scum, and I don't see much genuine scum motivation for his play, just general bad play from either scum or town (no offense).

And if he's scum it's either with mathcams, one of my biggest town reads, or with hoopla. And if that's the case, I'd prefer to lynch hoopla, which on a townflip gives us a scumteam of charter and bob and on a scumflips gives us a 2/3 chance of nailing her partner between raskol, charter and bob.

[charter]

See, here is another hole. Even if we lynch you today and you're town, your theory is still wrong, since I KNOW I'm town.

When I said I didn't care if he was scum or not, I still thought he was scum, but didn't care because he was literally doing everything in his power to hurt the town (which is what self voting is if you're town) and he's every bit the liability Coco was in lylo.

And also, before you said mathcam was town if Vaya and Coco were, I believe, but didn't elaborate. Now all of a sudden he's one of your biggest town reads? Before he was only town if your assumption that two other players were town was right.

Basically, I don't see Hoopla or Cyberbob as scum, and right now, you and Raskol is what looks like the most plausible scumteam to me.

It's like every time you plug up a hole in your latest theory, a new one forms. You seem to be digging yourself in to a bigger and bigger hole here.

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla it's .9 to the power of 5 which is roughly 60%. And call me pessimistic but I'd take that chance to win this game.

Without bob I won't have the numbers for a lynch so this is probably academic.

I still hold that every flip is crucial and a no lynch with just about anyone dead, including myself, would help confirm or deny the theory or otheris narrow down the possibilities with only minor detriment.

As for my own scumminess - don't k ow what to say, to be honest. I think I've been pretty transparently looking for scum. If it comes off as insincere I'll cop that but at least you'll have a head start.

[SerialClergyman]

There's no holes to plug. You KNOWING you're town doesn't even destroy it for you, the one person who may or may not know that, because hoopla and bob could well be. In fact, if I am lynched, bob, hoopla and charter should all look at the other two very closely.

Cam has steadily been a town read for me, look all through my posts on any day and find out for yourself. My point was no matter what read you have on him, if those two are town he is essentially confirmed.

So where are these holes you're saying keep springing up? Your rhetoric doesn't match your points. You knowing you are town is dubious to the rest of us and explainable if true, my stance on cam is consistent but even if it wasn't there is still no contradiction in the theory.

[charter]

Pffft, now you're saying it's two of me, cyberbob, and Hoopla? Seems awfully convenient to just lynch me first then. Why am I more likely to be scum than either of those two? I think us three are three of those least likely to be Peabody's scumbuddy. You're falling in to the trap of process of elimination, but you're not basing it on who is likely to be Peabody's scumbuddy.

Bussing day one doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but bussing now would be great, especially for the people that just replaced in. It seems like you are selectively choosing what parts of the game you are taking in to account when coming up with these theories. For example, I really don't see how you're clearing le Chat here. He was pretty scummy, and DDD has done nothing but try and lynch you. Doesn't seem all that townie from your point of view, but that's one of the qualifiers for your theory. Another would be how on earth you've all of a sudden cleared Raskol. His play gets scummier and it makes you think he's townier?