Newbie 848 - The Bunny Mafia Family - over finally!

[Incognito]

Vote Count #2 of Day 2

Haylen (2) <-~ MichelSableheart, Sposh
TheBeanBurrito (1) <-~ Jase

Not voting (5) <-~ Bwian, TheBeanBurrito, Haylen, Nachomamma8, broncofaninmd

With 8 alive, 5 will do it.

Friday, November 13th at 7 P.M. EDT.

[Bwian]

Bwian, were were you when the deadline hit? Why didn't you post on monday or tuesday?

When the deadline hit I was with my girlfriend. I had already made up my mind and had my mind set on things other than lynching while spending time with her. On a side note for tuesday I also had an errand with the police, visiting the lost property office, before I went to see her.

Though I will be at her place or have her here visiting often I'll make sure to participate more regulary.

[Bwian]

Please read the entire game, even though it's a bit long. I have a fairly long post describing the fun little twist of this game.

I have read the entire game.

I still don't see what good it will do the town if a townie lies. It'll only make it harder for the town to sort out who the liars are.

[Bwian]

Bwain: I want your take on the events of day 1.

The question is quite vague but I'll try to sum up the things I've reacted to.

• It'll be hard to tell if anyone is lurking because quite a few are keeping a low profile. I'm aware that I myself fall into this category and should try to increase my number of posts. However I do want to have a point and I prefer to reconsider it before I post it.
  
  I still don't buy Nachos point of view on pseudo-maffia mysterious play and I wonder if others are bothered about it or might I be making a chicken out of a feather? Even if that's the case the feather is real.
  
  A no-lynch was a most unfortunatly outcome.
  
  Haylen did put himself in a bad position by not voting but I don't think he's maffia. If he were he could easily have voted for a townie lynch.
  
  Same goes for TBB but being inactive he's not helping either.

I'd like to ask Michel if you share my view on Haylens part in the no-lynch. Also, could you please explain the following inconsistency?

Isn't getting a lynch more important than lynching your top suspect?

We may want to consider no lynching again today.

[Haylen]

Bwian. I am going to say this once. Haylen is Female.

[Bwian]

My bad. My apologies.

Not going to take myself i defence but to explain myself I didn't pay any attention to that left column. Now that I do I notice it says Mafia Scum next to your name. How come?

[Haylen]

That's my title. I've made enough posts to earn that title, once you've made loads of posts you become 'Mafia Scum' instead of 'Townsperson' instead. When you've become well known on the site, you might get nominated for a custom title, such as the mods is 'Not Rex'. There's a story behind all titles.

[Bwian]

Haylen, who would you have liked to lynch yesterday?

[Haylen]

I would have liked to have lynched Michel, but only out of instinct. I have a very unique way of playing the game. Instinct day one, the rest logic, until 3 player lylo when I go back to instinct.

[Incognito]

TheBeanBurrito's prod is still in my outbox after 48 hours. Searching for a TheBeanBurrito replacement.

[Bwian]

Is that what your insticts say now or what they said yesterday? Did you even raise a finger of suspicion towards him day one?

Haylen did put himself in a bad position by not voting but I don't think she's maffia. If he were she could easily have voted for a townie lynch.

The above is of course only valid if they both were townies. However, if Nacho or TBB were mafia Haylen for sure wouldn't vote for the other mafia member and maybe didn't want to put herself in the spotlight being the one to pull a town-lynch off.

Did we have grounds for a lynch yesterday? If so, why did we fail to get Nacho or TBB lynched?

I'm starting to belive TBB might be lurking.

[Incognito]

Netopalis replaces in for TheBeanBurrito effective immediately. Thanks, Netopalis!

[Jase]

I'm starting to belive TBB might be lurking.

He's being replaced though, so it doesn't matter.

In the same vein...

Unvote

and for now I'll...

Vote: Sposh

I'll have to go over the case against him from day 1, but I believe he was one of the people who I thought would have been a good lynch yesterday.

[Jase]

Welcome Neto. I look forward to hearing what you have to say about day one, and the current situation.

[Bwian]

I'm starting to belive TBB might be lurking.

He's being replaced though, so it doesn't matter.

Didn't refresh the thread before replying so I missed Incogs post 284. Wasn't sure if he was inactive or lurking. I do know for sure I like Netopalis replacing him!

I'm looking forward to hearing a fresh pair of eyes answering the question in 288.

[Sposh]

Vote: Nacho

because I supported it yesterday and I still support it today. YamiJoey's killing doesn't really tell us anything new.

[broncofaninmd]

That was sort of my reasoning... I just figured everyone would vote before deadline I didn't know people would completely lurk their way into a no lynch! But at least I was voting... Haylen was not!

Vote: Haylen

TBB wasn't voting either. Why did you choose Haylen over TBB?

[Jase]

Sposh: Are you still suspicious of haylen?

[Netopalis]

Just for the record, folks, I haven't forgotten about this game, but I've got a big exam today...I'll try to finish my reread and post this evening.

[MichelSableheart]

Sable: What are the pros and cons of a no lynch today?

pro: Currently, there are eight players alive. This means town can mislynch once before being in a situation were a mislynch means losing (Mylo). If we no lynch, we have 7 players alive, also one mislynch away from mislynch means losing. Therefore, by no lynching we don't give up a lynch.
No lynching has two advantages. The first is that any powerroles we have will get the chance to use their abilities to gather more information. The other advantage is that by reducing the pool of players, we increase the chance of lynching mafia.

con: First of all, appearantly this town has problems getting to a decision. We weren't able to force a lynch yesterday. That may happen again. It's therefore better to be in a situation were a no lynch doesn't cost us the game.
Secondly, the player we lose by no lynching is probably a player the mafia wants to see dead. They remove an important pro-town voice from the equation, increasing the influence they have over the lynch.

---

So far, today's discussion has been trying to point the blame for the no lynch yesterday. Now this is all well and good, but no one's actually talked about suspicious behaviors during Day 1... Who is everyone's top suspect right now, and why?

I believe my post #249 made my stance clear. I'm most suspicious of Haylen because I consider her most responsible for the no lynch when she really should have known better. Second top suspect is Netopalis, because TBB didn't contribute to the game in any way during all of day 1, but was only replaced today.

---

It's easy! I just never saw the case behind TBB, but Nacho had my eye the entire day.

If you didn't understand why we were voting TBB, you should have asked for explanations. If you didn't believe we were voting TBB for a good reason, you should have argued against our arguments. You didn't comment on the TBB wagon at all. Saying you didn't see the case now is complete rubbish.

---

I'd like to ask Michel if you share my view on Haylens part in the no-lynch. Also, could you please explain the following inconsistency?

It is usually wise to assume that town will lynch each day, and mafia will kill each night. With nine players alive, that means the following progress, assuming town always mislynches:
nine alive (two mafia) town lynches town, mafia kills town.
seven alive (two mafia) town lynches town, mafia kills town.
five alive (two mafia) Lylo. If town doesn't lynch mafia, town loses.

If town no lynches on day 1, the situation changes.
nine alive (two mafia) town no lynches, mafia kills town.
eight alive (two mafia) town lynches town, mafia kills town.
six alive (two mafia). If town lynches town, mafia kills town, 2 vs 2, mafia wins.

Now assume that town no lynches on day 1 and 2. Then the situation is as follows:
nine alive (two mafia) town no lynches, mafia kills town.
eight alive (two mafia) town no lynches, mafia kills town.
seven alive (two mafia) town lynches town, mafia kills town
five alive (two mafia) LYLO. if town doesn't lynch mafia, town loses.

So basically, a no lynch on day 1 will mean that town has one less lynch available to lynch mafia. Therefore, a town no lynch is just as good for mafia as a lynch on a pro-town player is. Therefore, Haylen as mafia would not need to get a lynch on town if she could get away with no lynching. Which is why I don't agree with your read on Haylen.

As for the inconsistency you mentioned: No lynching on day 1 costs the town a lynch. No lynching after a No lynch already took place, doesn't. Which is why a no lynch should be avoided at all costs during day 1, but why we may want to consider no lynching today.

[Sposh]

I think I could agree with a no lynch for today! It would even out the numbers and maybe give us more information.

I probably should have asked for reasons for the burrito vote, but I just really wanted to lynch Nacho and thought he would be a good day one lynch. =\

And yes, I'm still suspicious of Haylen... but I dunno. Nacho is also strangely missing it seems. For now, I think I agree with Michel on a

vote: no lynch

.

[Bwian]

I admit a no lynch today seems like a good idea but I will not vote for a no lynch until we've decided who to lynch the next day.

[Nachomamma8]

I think that we shouldn't no lynch today if we can help it. That way, we don't have to worry about another no-lynch happening if we find ourselves in the grip of indecision again; also, I think that no-lynching today would be a complete waste of a day because we will have practically no information to go on for our lynch tomorrow if we decide to no-lynch today. Why practically hand over a townie today instead of lynching a possible scum?

[MichelSableheart]

It seems I missed another con against no lynching today: if we lynch, a succesful doc protect can give us back the lynch we threw away yesterday.

---
Sposh, were did you get that I wanted to no lynch today? I wanted the option to be considered, but I also strongly belief it is not the correct play for today. It is unlikely that the mafia kill will actually reduce the possible lynch pool in this situation. They will likely kill someone who's obvtown and wasn't going to be lynched anyway.

[Incognito]

Bumping vote count.