Mini 839 -- Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[sigma]

So, the quickhammer charter's been worried about hasn't come yet. That doesn't really give us much info to be honest.

If imaginality-scum wanted to get our attention off of him by killing sotty, it worked to a T. I'm not sure this is very likely, but it worries me. We need a tin-foil hat emoticon to express my feelings right now

[charter]

I don't like how imaginality didn't want to post his nighttalk first. I get the feeling like he wants to craft it so it paints him as town, and since Sotty is dead, he can really say whatever he wants. Could have killed Sotty if he slipped up something in the thread too and she saw it.

Cruciare should obviously confirm what Sigma posted about night talk.

And Porkens, what the hell?

[imaginality]

The posted nightchat looks genuine and believable, content-wise and form-wise, and given the content of it, it helps me feel better about the conclusion I've come to that sigma and Charter probably aren't scum either. I am really sure it has to be one of charter or Porkens. I think there's probably just one scum, and I think for balance purposes it would make a lot of sense for that scum to be a GF, so I don't place much weight on the innocent result on Porkens.

No quickhammer on charter doesn't mean he's town if we have just one scum left. Next up from me will be my reread of both of them.

[Porkens]

I want to lynch Charter or Imaginality. I highly doubt that much, if anything, was changed in any of the night chats.

One thing that's screwing me up is that the term "town neighbors" was used in the mods flavor text

[imaginality]

I don't like how imaginality didn't want to post his nighttalk first. I get the feeling like he wants to craft it so it paints him as town, and since Sotty is dead, he can really say whatever he wants. Could have killed Sotty if he slipped up something in the thread too and she saw it.

Huh?

I posted my night-talk with Sotty unprompted right at the start of today (post 686). sigma was the one who was reluctant to post his and Cruciare's nighttalk at first. Did you mean to refer to him?

I thought it worthwhile to post the night-talk to put the information out there and to put pressure on sigma and Cruciare to do the same. I don't think anything in the most recent night-talk I posted should swing opinions about me one way or the other (though I do think Sotty's point about me picking Col to be a PR and Col not getting night-killed is a good one, but she mentioned that in this thread already, IIRC).

[charter]

Ah, you are of course correct, don't know why I thought you were waiting. Must be losing my memory.

However, it doesn't change the fact that there's no way to verify that that is what was actually said.

[Cruciare]

/Prodded. Sorry for my absence, got attacked by Nazi zombies, etc.

Well with this stunt Porkens is pulling, I'm paranoid and thinking scum killed Sotty since she was pretty sure I was town in order to get me lynched today. I've been thinking Porkens is town all game, but that went out the window.

Not really the answer I was looking for. When Sotty died, you immediately said 'I still think it's Imaginality' with zero consideration as to who died last night. What's the logical connection between Sotty being nightkilled -> 'I still think it's Imaginality'?

@everyone: How much value do you place on the innocent investigation of Porkens? It seems like almost everyone is discounting this pretty strongly, but I don't see any particular reason to think that we have a GF in this game, and I'd be really surprised to see a non-sane cop.

I agree with Imaginality on that the last scum is unlikely to be a normal goon for balance purposes (and I no longer find it likely that there are two scum left). Whether the last scum is a godfather or something else, I wouldn't know. A non-sane cop is very unlikely given we have a dead framer. I take the innocent investigation on Porkens with a grain of salt. That said, Porkens is probably closer to the bottom of my suspicion list for other reasons.

@Imaginality: Who out of Charter and Porkens would you prefer to lynch today? Also if I may pose the same question: What can you deduce from Sotty being nightkilled?

[imaginality]

Cruciare: Good questions.

To answer the 'charter or Porkens' question: I re-read their posts today (plus jammer's). I think jammer/charter looks more likely scum than Porkens. I can put together a long post about this but I will just point to jammer's play (e.g. the L-1 vote on pops, and voting TMJ in an uncommitted way, kinda like hoping pops still gets lynched but wanting to be on the right wagon in case he doesn't), and charter's habit of having two suspects on the go (Vi or Cruciare till Vi got lynched, with a quick diversion onto the DRK wagon, and then Cruciare or me), wifom in 690, and being overconfident ("I REALLY think" etc.) in his reads when I reckon it's actually been fairly tricky to decide who's scum. Also not commenting on godfather possibilities.

I'm holding off voting charter for now just because I want to check that after I sleep on it tonight, I don't see it differently in the morning. But as things stand, I think it's more likely him than Porkens, and I will vote charter tomorrow.


To answer the second question: there are various reasons and wifom-reasons for scum nightkilling Sotty. I think if anything, my main thought on Sotty being nightkilled is precisely that: Sotty was the 'WIFOM' nightkill choice. By which I mean, if Porkens was killed, that would have been for fairly obvious reasons and not really affect anything else very much as far as who is and isn't suspect.

Whereas Sotty being killed raises two wifomy issues in particular:

(a) is Porkens scum for still being alive?
(b) am I scum trying a gambit by killing my pretty-much-sole defender?

I conclude that either Porkens is scum, or whoever is scum wasn't confident of getting me mislynched if they NKed Porkens and left Sotty alive and/or also wanted to create a possible Porkens mislynch.

If charter's scum, the above logic could work: if he'd killed Porkens last night, we'd be left with him plus the two neighbour pairs. If he got me lynched today, it would become either him and sigma and Cruciare, or him and Sotty and (sigma or Cruciare). But then, sigma and Cruciare would probably vote him, and Sotty would probably question why (sigma or Cruciare) would kill their neighbour rather than charter. So I can see it being to charter's advantage to keep Porkens alive as a possible mislynch for either today or tomorrow. (Another advantage for charter killing Sotty is it could help make sigma look more suspicious too, since Sotty suspected sigma.)

So, overall, I don't draw strong conclusions from the choice of nightkill, but I do believe it fits with either Porkens or charter being scum, rather than one of them looking less likely because of the nightkill.

[Cruciare]

Huh, I was gonna wait for Charter to answer, but I'll just present what I can deduce from Sotty being nightkilled now.

Possibility #1:

CharterScum killed Sotty.

Likely reason(s) for killing Sotty:

The best way to address this question is, why didn't he kill Porkens instead? He even said himself that Porkens was going to be nightkilled anyway. The reasoning given by Imaginality is plausible. Also the fact that even though Porkens was investigated innocent, people still suspected him whereas no-one suspected Sotty. The other option would be because Porkens mentioned that in a three man LyLo, he wouldn't vote for Charter, so CharterScum killed the next person on his to-kill list. The last reason could be because Sotty was the only one who didn't support an Imaginality lynch.

Viability of the above:

Imaginality's reasoning is I believe of an inconsistent level of depth with CharterScum killing Ojanen, which too obviously pointed towards Charter's doing. The second reason is more likely; when he said that Porkens was going to be nightkilled he assumed everyone else shared the same view, and upon noting otherwise he changed his mind. The third reason is the most probable, after all an almost-confirmed innocent saying that he wouldn't vote for you in LyLo could be too tempting to resist keeping alive for CharterScum. The last reason is not very likely and shows a very shallow level of logic; even without Sotty's vote Imaginality could still have been lynched, and Sotty dying actually worked against an Imaginality lynch as we see today.

What I would've done in their shoes:

Probably no-kill. If Porkens hadn't said that thing about voting the other guy I would probably have killed Porkens, but something like that could be too tempting for even me. I'd prefer to kill Porkens over Sotty, because Porkens was the 'expected' kill, and had things gone down as 'expected' Imaginality would've been lynched without hesitation. Sotty said she wasn't suspicious of Charter either, so I see no need to cause unnecessary WIFOM. I might even consider killing Cruciare or Sigma over Sotty or Porkens. Still, no-killing would've left the town with no extra information and would probably have been the best thing to do. Then again, I'm not Charter and I don't know CharterScum's level of thinking.

Possibility #2:

ImaginalityScum killed Sotty.

Likely reason(s) for killing Sotty:

Make people start thinking that Imaginality could not possibly have killed his only ally, and therefore come to the conclusion that 'Imaginality is not scum'. Also, doing pretty anything else would lead to him being promptly lynched today, so ImaginalityScum may have seen killing Sotty as his only way out.

Viability of the above:

Quite viable. Especially the second part. Killing Porkens would have led to Charter, Sigma and Cruciare hopping on the Imaginality wagon. Charter for sure, Sigma probably as well, and though Cruciare expressed suspicion of Charter instead, with people not supporting a Charter lynch Cruciare would also go for an Imaginality lynch. I'm not so sure of the details that entail from killing anyone else, but in the end I'm pretty sure Imaginality would still be the lynch target anyway. Therefore killing Sotty was the only way that suspicion would fall off Imaginality. The point against this is that I don't find it likely that ImaginalityScum would kill his only ally, leaving the rest to WIFOM. I'm not sure if trying to survive two days in a town where everyone else is suspicious of you is a position ImaginalityScum would want to be in.

What I would've done in their shoes:

I'm not sure really. ImaginalityScum is a pretty hard position to win from either way, so I would probably have killed Sotty too to maximise my chances as a suicide gambit, since I realise that doing anything else is quite hopeless unless I am confident in my abilities to pin suspicions on other people, which ImaginalityScum may or may not be. Killing either Cruciare, Sigma or Charter is not an entirely absurd move either, but again I'm not very sure at all what I would do in this situation.

Possibility #3:

PorkensScum killed Sotty.

Likely reason(s) for killing Sotty:

Sotty is the least suspicious person besides himself.

Viability of the above:

Ridiculously low, now that I think about it. In addition to this being some pretty shallow logic, it would've been far more beneficial for PorkensScum to no-kill. The reasoning of 'expected' nightkills also applies here, Porkens was the expected kill, but PorkensScum obviously wouldn't kill himself and no-kill is also expected IMO, in fact I expected a no-kill more than a Porkens-kill. There would be no need for Porkens as scum to derail the train from the 'expected' path (which would've led to Imaginality being lynched) into the WIFOM we have now. Unless of course PorkensScum actually thought this far, in which case he would be quite the genius and deserves to win for completely screwing me over. Anyway, viability of PorkensScum killing Sotty is nearing nonexistance.

What I would've done in their shoes:

No-kill, definitely. Anything else is sub-optimal play, IMO. I wouldn't have been so smart to think ahead like twenty steps and pull something as ridiculous as killing Sotty, and I doubt Porkens is that much of a genius either. Porkens even said that he was unsuspicious of Charter prior to Sotty dying, so the point of killing Sotty in the first place was so that he could make that 180 degree change in opinion and try to lynch Charter instead of Imaginality? Why? Makes no sense to me.

tl;dr Charter is the best lynch today, and if we haven't won by then, Imaginality goes up the noose tomorrow. If Porkens or Sigma are scum, then they have played well. If there are two scum left, they're pretty good at bussing each other and/or the setup is heavily unbalanced. Deadline is pretty far ahead so I won't vote yet.

[sigma]

Forum ate my post. re-type following:

@imaginality: interesting point about charter not mentioning the GF speculation. I'm not sure two of your reasons for suspecting charter are consistent: "charter's habit of having two suspects on the go" and "being overconfident" -- would someone overconfident really have two suspects? That doesn't make sense to me.

@cruciare: I don't really like your "possibility #3" paragraph. The thing you're not considering is that no-kill may not have been an option for the scum, and porkens-scum could very well have gone with sotty as the kill. I do agree with you that his 180-degree on charter is a daring move that looks like a town-tell.

@charter: do you think porkens is scum? If not, who's our guy?

My take on Sotty's NK:

imaginality-scum:

Sotty's death has worked out really well for him, hasn't it? Doesn't mean he's scum, though, and I think scum in his position would have tried to ride sotty's faith in him to victory. This is WIFOMy, but hopefully correct.

anyone else-scum:

One thing that's being overlooked is that no one, and I mean no one, was even suspicious of Sotty. That wasn't true for anyone else, even porkens. I think that was the largest factor in her death if anyone else but imaginality was scum.

---

and finally: I'm not convinced charter's our guy. I still maintain that in a GF or other PR/framer scumpair, it would be an extremely daring move for the GF/PR to bus his framer D1, especially when he had the opportunity to hammer pops and didn't. This is exactly what jammer did D1, and I still just don't see scum doing this.

Unfortunately, I don't like the other choices either. porkens is obv-town to me because of the investigation and the 180 on charter today(don't see scum making that move at all.) that leaves imaginality and cruciare, who are both gut-town reads to me.

I'm planning on spending some time to re-read imaginality and cruciare in light of sotty's death to see if I've missed anything on them.

[charter]

Cruciare, you do realize that no killing, as scum, is almost universally a terrible idea, correct? Especially after a massclaim and it's near certain there is no role that can out scum.

Sigma, I don't know about Porkens, he still seems pretty town, but very wrong. I haven't been quickhammered yet, so that does tell me there is just one scum, or Porkens is scum. Now I'm pretty sure that there's just one scum.

Thank you sigma, jammer voted TMJ which is more than imaginality did. I had forgotten about this. I hope that before anyone votes me, like Porkens, they can give reasons I can refute, not "oh, well charter would have killed Sotty", which I wouldn't have. She had pretty much said she would never vote for me. Why would I kill her???

[imaginality]

Brief reply to Cruciare: in your scenarios you're assuming the scum have the option of no killing, which may not be the case?

[Porkens]

We just need to lynch.

unvote, Vote Imaginality

Votes.

[Cruciare]

Cruciare, you do realize that no killing, as scum, is almost universally a terrible idea, correct?

No, I don't realise this. I think no-killing is a perfectly reasonable move for scum. Why do you think otherwise?

And yes, I guess I am assuming scum have the option to no-kill. I don't see a good reason for the mod to force scum to kill in a normal game, but I see the possibility. If scum couldn't no-kill, Porkens becomes a little more suspicious (this was my initial thinking when I said a Sotty nightkill is more likely by Porkens), but the 180 on Charter still doesn't make sense so my lynch preferences won't change.

Vote: Charter

[imaginality]

My reread today didn't change anything. I'm going to add my vote to charter.

I agree with Cruciare that no-killing would have been reasonable for scum if they had the option which is the main reason why I tend to doubt they did. Though it's interesting charter thinks it would be a bad idea.

Porkens' vote switch from charter to me worries me a bit (seems like he could be scum thinking he could get charter lynched easily, but now switching back to me now it seems he can't). That said I still think it's better to lynch charter today. I lean towards him being the remaining scum, and pragmatically it's also better.

Vote: charter

[RedCoyote]

Mafia Invasion of Lynchem
Reporter uncovers serious details that points to suspects
By Sotty Seven
LYNCHEM TRIBUTE
Oct. 26, 2009, 7:43AM

It's the fifth night since the tragic murders have begun, and the Lynchem Tribute has attempted to keep the town in the know about what exactly is behind it all. This reporter thinks she may have the answer, I only wish it hadn't have taken me so long to figure it out. All signs point to [end]

[The Lynchem Tribute regrets to report that these were the last words our fine reporter ever wrote. Turn to page 2 for more details about her untimely murder and funeral information...]

---

Vote Count 5.2

• Not Voting

  (charter - sigma -

  Cruciare

  -

  imaginality

  )
  
  
  charter
  (

  Porkens

  - Cruciare - imaginality)
  
  
  imaginality
  (Porkens)

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.
The current deadline is set for

November 3rd

.

[sigma]

Guess we aren't interested in waiting until closer to deadline for a lynch.

Still re-reading.

[charter]

Whoa now, now I'm worried. Reading up a little bit.

[charter]

Well, if it's going to be me vs imaginality, then I'm going to do my best to make sure it's imaginality.

vote imaginality

[sigma]

Reread done. I just don't think charter's the guy, and imaginality's more likely to be scum than Cruciare.

Vote: imaginality

and cross fingers.

[charter]

That was surgical.

[RedCoyote]

"Porkens, what the hell?" exclaimed charter, in a desperate bid to regain control of the town. "It's you or imaginality," replied Porkens, unsure whether his move was the right one, "We just need a lynch". With that, Porkens turned away from imaginality and Cruciare just as they were convinced Porkens had it right.

"Guess we aren't interested in waiting", sigma would say with an evil glint in his eye. He smiled as he gave a peculiar nudge to charter. charter smiled in concert, and imaginality could only look on with horror. imaginality,

Vanilla Townie Neighbor

was strung up, and he died painfully, having lost his life and lost his town. Cruciare attempted to intervene, but he was shot before he could be of any help. Cruciare,

Vanilla Townie Neighbor

, fell to the ground, clutching at the Lynchem dirt as his neighbor holstered his weapon.

Porkens backed away from sigma,

Mafia Goon Neighbor

and charter,

Mafia Godfather

, his heart and mind racing at what all just happened. Regret, fear, sorrow, anguish, anger... he stumbled off the lynching platform and turned to run, but charter lifted his gun with a surgical precision and shot Porkens,

Vanilla Townie

before he could get very far.

---

Final Day 5 Vote Count

• imaginality

  (Porkens - charter - sigma)
  
  
  charter
  (Cruciare - imaginality)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (

  charter

  -

  sigma

  )

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.

With three votes, that is a lynch and an official end to the game.

[Col.Cathart]

Ok... So that 1:1, Sigma

Also: Whoa. Mafia Neighbor, GF AND Framer? Compared with Survivor/Cop/3 Townie Neighbors on the team good side, I think that was a pretty powerful mafia team.

Good game guys. I liked it a lot.

[RedCoyote]

Final Results

Obituaries

• Tjoe Min Ja,

  Mafia Framer

  , lynched Day 1.
  
  
  popsofctown,

  Neutral Survivor

  , shot Night 1.
  
  
  DeathRowKitty,

  Vanilla Townie

  , removed from the game Day 2.
  
  
  Ojanen,

  Vanilla Townie

  , shot Night 2.
  
  
  Vi,

  Vanilla Townie

  , lynched Day 3.
  
  
  Col.Cathart,

  Town Cop

  , shot Night 3.
  
  
  Sotty7,

  Vanilla Townie Neighbor

  , shot Night 4.
  
  
  imaginality,

  Vanilla Townie Neighbor

  , lynched Day 5.
  
  
  Cruciare,

  Vanilla Townie Neighbor

  , shot at end game.
  
  
  Porkens,

  Vanilla Townie

  , shot at end game.

Winners

• Tjoe Min Ja,

  Mafia Framer

  , lynched Day 1.
  
  
  sigma,

  Mafia Goon Neighbor

  .
  
  
  charter,

  Mafia Godfather

  .

[Sotty7]

That hurts.

Charter had me fooled but I was onto Sigma. Dang