Mini 856 - Star Control: Zeta Sextantis - Over

[Kmd4390]

Locke, yes, there are a few people posting walls. What I meant is that Rising is the scummiest of those who are, not that he's the only one doing so.

Excedrin, why do you think I want to lynch Kast? And what false dillema did I set up? I looked at the vote count and told anyone not voting or voting alone to change their vote. It's common sense with a deadline coming up.

Zito, you are suspecting me for "starting this mess". All I did was attack you and suspect you based on your reaction. Then you waste your vote on Locke. Not sure what you are doing, but you are today's lynch unless you have a claim that is both believable and confirmable.

@KMD-
-What do you think of the case on Kast?
To be clear:
-You are most suspicious of Zito and would prefer his lynch.
-Your next suspect is Rising, but you do not feel that a Rising lynch will occur anytime soon.
-You are willing to vote for others to secure a lynch rather than a no lynch.

What exactly

is

the case on you?

-No, I'm most suspicious of Rising. Zito comes next though and I support his lynch.
-He's my top suspect. I'd continue pushing it, but I was the only one voting him and deadline was coming up, so doing so would be anti-town.
-Yes. A lynch is better than a no lynch.

----------------

Sigma deflecting to Locke (Zito's new target at the time) is noted.

---------------

Zito's claim isn't worth saving him for. He's a good lynch.

--------------

Excedrin, I dropped Kast from the list of possible lynches because he only had one vote. Obviously, if Porkens had role-related info on him (I didn't expect him to btw), I'd have been willing to run him up.

--------------

Porkens' switch to Lock is weird. I don't see why Zito's claim should keep him alive. Why do you think there is only one of each race?

--------------

LOL! Porkens switches from Lock to Keelie and Sigma/Zito, who were ALSO voting Locke, follow right over to Keelie. I'm seeing a connection between Zito and Sigma at least. Of course, if I'm right, Locke and Keelie are town due to this.

[sigma]

Zito's claim isn't worth saving him for. He's a good lynch.

Saying this more than once doesn't make this true. Unless I missed it, everyone voting for Zito has ignored my request for a summary of the case.

KMD, I repeat: What is the case on Zito?

I'm seeing a connection between Zito and Sigma at least

Think what you want. I have a strong town gut-read on Zito and am acting accordingly.

Here's my case on Keelie. This is in addition to active-lurking, which probably isn't a scum-tell. I do think she's a great candidate to be lurker-scum, however.

1) zoomed straight to the top wagon without justifying her vote in the least. Trying to blend in.
2) If you look at her previous votes, the reasoning behind them has been similarly flimsy and insubstantial.
3) appealed to emotion about how 'innocent blood' would be on my head after

one

vote on her.

KeelieRavenWolf wagon sucks because she's almost certainly town.

How can you possibly get an 'Almost Certain Town' read on someone who's posted 5 times?

[Papa Zito]

KeelieRavenWolf wagon sucks because she's almost certainly town.

How can you possibly get an 'Almost Certain Town' read on someone who's posted 5 times?

This. Especially when most of those posts are apologies and excuses.

I'm much more comfortable with a Jelly lynch than a Dry-Fit lynch. Or a me lynch, obv.

Kmd, your tunneling isn't making you look any better. I'm having a hard time believing that your reads haven't changed since Page 2.

Papa Zito is mashing his ESC key and hoping he has enough fuel

[Excedrin]

Excedrin, why do you think I want to lynch Kast?

Doesn't everyone want to lynch scum?
I don't think you necessarily "want to lynch"; I said "willing to lynch" based on the following:

#188
If it's role-related, I'm more than happy to switch to Kast

#190
If Porkens comes in with info on Kast, I'm willing to follow.

And what false dillema did I set up? I looked at the vote count and told anyone not voting or voting alone to change their vote. It's common sense with a deadline coming up.

The vote count was deceptive since:
Rising has his vote on Dry-fit but doesn't want Dry-fit lynched
Rosso Carne doesn't have his vote on Kast but does want Kast lynched

Excedrin, I dropped Kast from the list of possible lynches because he only had one vote. Obviously, if Porkens had role-related info on him (I didn't expect him to btw), I'd have been willing to run him up.

Ok, I've explained that in effect he had 2 votes despite what the vote count shows and likewise Dry-fit had 1. I suppose that technically, what the vote count showed is the absolute truth since if Rising and Rosso Carne don't post again that's how it will be at deadline, but I thought it was worth pointing out.

How can you possibly get an 'Almost Certain Town' read on someone who's posted 5 times?

Is this a theory question? In theory, a player could be a daycop/mason/similar, then it doesn't matter how many times they've posted.
In KeelieRavenWolf's specific case, my read is more about how people have reacted to her posts (and lack of posts) than what she's said. Call it gut, I'm probably not going to be able to pull out specific instances of things that seem obvtown from KeelieRavenWolf in this case.

So, policy lynchers, how likely is it that KeelieRavenWolf is scum?

[sigma]

Is this a theory question? In theory, a player could be a daycop/mason/similar, then it doesn't matter how many times they've posted.
In KeelieRavenWolf's specific case, my read is more about how people have reacted to her posts (and lack of posts) than what she's said. Call it gut, I'm probably not going to be able to pull out specific instances of things that seem obvtown from KeelieRavenWolf in this case.

I can accept a gut-town read on KRW. I don't see it, but I guess that's why they call it a gut read, right?

So, policy lynchers, how likely is it that KeelieRavenWolf is scum?

I'm not sure if this is directed at me or not, since I've given reasons for lynching her besides "policy," but I'll answer. I think she's more likely to be scum than most of the players in this game. Hence the vote.

[Kast]

@KRW-
Much less ideal than a Dry-Fit lynch, but this is preferable to a Zito lynch.

One huge problem/drawback from a KRW lynch is that everything points that KRW will not post a defense or claim. Votes on KRW are, for all intents and purposes, final votes.

If this game has limited reveals on death (ie. name+affiliation only or name+race+affiliation), we're losing information that could give scum more freedom in future.

On the plus side, KRW's inactivity isn't a result of one time circumstances (as claimed), so it is unlikely that there will be any increase in activity even later in the game.

Unvote, Vote: KRW

@KRW-
If you check the boards again, strongly consider claiming.

[Plum]

So, policy lynchers, how likely is it that KeelieRavenWolf is scum?

At the time I had that whole gut read on Zito last night, more likely than Zito being scum so better vote. My suspect list would have been approximately as follows:

Excedrin
-
Locke Lamora
KeelieRavenWolf
-
Papa Zito
(Maybe Rising?)
-
Everyone else

Do I generally oppose policy lynches? Yes. Do I think Keelie has been Town-helpful? No. Has she committed at least minor scumtells? Yes. Was she more likely to be scum than Zito, my previous vote? I thought so.

Do I want some freaking clarity and/or consistency from my gut reads? YES. Am I getting it? I WISH. Am I reading Chosen v1.0 alongside this game to check Zito for consistency because I really can't think of a better plan of attacking this problem? YOU BETCHA.

Basically, I'm less convinced, after side-by-side reading that Zito's performance thus far is scummily-different by meta comparison. The lack of early scumhunting is still worrying . . . but the difference seems to be that the early Zito wagon in Chosen was not reinforced by the voters arguing that Zito had shown a scumtell of real relevence, whereas in this game - more by Excedrin than Porkens - some did argue that Zito had committed a scumtell of strength such that it was relelvent to the entire game.

Basically my read of Zito is not conclusively towards scum enough after #249 to warrant lynching him when the alternative is a lurker who hasn't helped the Town in any way, voted Zito

because

his lynch was most likely to go through.

Not certain I'm right on Zito but I think I'll take the chance.

What I'd REALLY like to do is lynch Excedrin.

My suspect list is consistent with what it was last night, see top of this post.

[Locke Lamora]

This game feels like it's unusually crazy to me. Suspects are flying around left, right and centre and wagons are appearing and disappearing in a matter of hours.

KRW's vote is spectacularly horrible and combined with her extreme lurking she's looking pretty lynch-worthy. I really don't like the speed of the wagon and some of the reactions to it on both sides, though. Several points I'd like to address:

Plum: I felt better about KMD attacking Zito because I agreed with his meta assessment. I still think he was point-scoring off Zito to make Zito look bad but given that I agree with KMD's meta against Zito I'm less sure that it's scummy.

Excedrin: can you at least give us some examples of how people have reacted to KRW that give you that pro-town read? I don't see what your aim is in throwing a gut read out there in the face of a rapidly building wagon less than 48 hours from the deadline.

Porkens: why throw out your information in an attempt to give the town something to discuss and then push ahead with a policy lynch? Why the vote on me in the middle of that vote flurry?

Kast: do you think a KRW lynch is preferable to a Zito lynch despite the lack of information we'll get from it? You strike me as a player who likes quantifiable information: who suspects who, first, second, third suspects, etc. Why vote someone who's barely posted and whose lynch may tell us very little about the scumteam as a whole?

[Excedrin]

can you at least give us some examples of how people have reacted to KRW that give you that pro-town read?

I don't think she's pro-town. She's hardly playing, posted blatant AtE and a fluffy 1st post serious vote. It's mostly that she's an extremely easy/safe lynch target. It's like your questions to Kast seem to indicate, we learn little from this lynch.

[Kast]

@LL-
-Yes, I think a KRW lynch is preferable to a Zito lynch.

I roughly agree with your assessment that lynching KRW is likely to provide less direct information than a lynch of Zito would. However, information gained from a lynch is not the sole factor to consider, nor do I think the decrease in information gained is going to be significant.

Ideally, we want to identify the player whose lynch grants the highest expected utility to the town. This is comprised of two main components, the probability that the player is town/scum, and the utility to the town of a given person's death. The utility function for each player would include (though this is not an exhaustive list) account for:
+Info about game setup
+Info about vote history of the lynchee
+Info about vote history against the lynchee
+Info about post record of the lynchee
-Info from the lynchee
-Info from future posts by the lynchee
-Abilities of the lynchee

It's usually not possible to quantify these criteria with hard numbers, but it is usually possible to make a qualitative judgment (especially one relative to another player under consideration).

This whole exercise is usually dominated by probability under the assumption that the utility of correctly lynching scum is the maximum benefit to town.

KRW reads very neutral in affiliation (there's just nothing there to build a good read on). KRW's posting has been anti-town in that she is lurking heavily and not voting responsibly.

Zito reads mostly neutral; not doing anything scummy. He has been overall pro-town, and as Sigma noted, has been doing more in terms of scum hunting towards the latter half of the day.

In terms of probabilities, I'd say Zito is probably more likely to be town than KRW, but both are ambiguous and it is close enough to be a wash.

Looking at the criteria in my utility function:
~There is nothing to suggest that the first point is any different between the two (and with KRW unlikely to post again or make a claim, this is likely to remain equal).
~Zito's votes have been pretty sparse but transparent. KRW's are a bit less clear. Both of them have very reactionary votes which won't tell us much.
~I think we learn a similar amount from the wagons on either; however, I agree that we probably learn a little bit more from the wagon on Zito since there has been more activity regarding Zito.
~Zito clearly has a much richer post record to mine through.
~Nothing suggests a difference in this factor; there is a marginal benefit in lynching KRW since KRW could potentially have information but never share it even if she is not lynched.
~We lose far more from Zito's death than from KRW. This is a HUGE difference.
~Nothing suggests a difference in this factor; there is a marginal benefit in lynching KRW since KRW could potentially have a night action but never use it or use it irresponsibly.

Overall, I think the benefits from lynching either of them are similar, the risks from lynching KRW are much lower than the risks of lynching Zito.


-I strongly dislike strict majority requirements as they force townies to make less than ideal votes, and allow scum to hide their bad votes behind a facade of doing the right thing for the town.

-Btw, I think the outrage against KRW placing an uninformed vote and not catching up is overzealous. If KRW is actually busy with two jobs and whatever else life is throwing at her, then it is understandable (not good, but understandable) that she would throw out a vote on the best information she had at the time (which was that Zito was the vote leader and nobody else was even close).

Somewhat wifom, but I think it more likely than not that lurking scum would just continue lurking; all indications point that nobody would have taken KRW to account for lurking through the rest of D1 (at least, not until D2).

@Excedrin-
To be clear:
You are saying that you think KRW is almost certainly town, not because she herself has been pro-town, but because the people voting her are doing so in a very anti-town manner or doing so for anti-town reasons?

[Kast]

@LL/Excedrin-
Claiming that we should not lynch KRW because we "learn little" is an invalid argument. We need to decide between a limited number of candidates. What we need to compare is not an absolute value, but something relative. We "learn little" from anyone, that is irrelevant. What matters is how much we learn from one lynch relative to (an)other(s).

This is probably a bit unfair to LL since he didn't actually state what Excedrin posted.

[SpyreX]

Vote Count:

Kmd4390(0):
Dry-fit (1): Rising,
Locke Lamora(0):
Papa Zito(4): Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, Excedrin, KeelieRavenWolf
Excedrin(0):
Plum (0):
Rising (0):
Kast (0):

KeelieRavenWolf (5): Porkens, sigma, Papa Zito, Plum, Kast

sigma (1): Dry-fit
Rosso Carne (0):

Not Voting (1): Rosso Carne

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline: Thursday, October 7th, 1030 PM PST

You can not pick up a jettisoned player until you know they are in space.

[Excedrin]

@Excedrin-
To be clear:
You are saying that you think KRW is almost certainly town, not because she herself has been pro-town, but because the people voting her are doing so in a very anti-town manner or doing so for anti-town reasons?

Is "my support for this lynch probably won't be scrutinized very much if KeelieRavenWolf is town" an anti-town manner or reason?

Is being pro-town ever enough to decide that someone is actually town or not?

I'm not sure. As I said, it'd be difficult to dig thru my subconscious and turn a lot of vague insubstantial stuff into something solid. I certainly don't have a breakdown of how each player's utility and lynch information compares.

Also, KeelieRavenWolf's lynch proves that Papa Zito and Dry-fit (and Kast if it's role-related) were not the only options.

[Kmd4390]

Sigma, I hadn't said that more than once. That was my first post since he claimed. Anyway, what I don't like about Zito is his reaction to my pressure. I've never seen him react that way. And he waited until he was wagoned before he started scumhunting. When I originally asked him for suspects, he gave the names of the other two players who had voted him and said they were scummy for voting him. This is NOT TownZito.

Your Keelie case convinces me that she is a newbie. Congratulations.

-------------

Excedrin, there's a difference between "I think Kast is scum" and "If Porkens has role-related info on Kast, I'll vote him". I said the second, not the first.

Again, I was more worried about making sure the non-voters and the people voting alone weren't wasting there votes.

-------------

I want Zito votes, but I should be online at deadline if I absolutely have to switch.

[Kast]

@Excedrin-
That's a very squirrely post.

It's a simple request for clarification based directly on your recent statements.

Please indicate agreement or disagreement with the following:
-You believe KRW is almost certainly town.
-You do not believe KRW has been playing in a pro-town manner.
-You believe that players who vote for KRW are likely to receive less scrutiny if KRW is lynched and flips town, than they would receive if they lynched any other player and the other player flipped town.
-You believe that the previous point indicates that scum would be inclined to vote for KRW.

[KeelieRavenWolf]

Yeah, my bad.
I hadn't realized that I hadn't actually hit the "submit" button until it was too late for me to go back and read what you guys had posted in my absence.
As I said, I'm very busy. There's like, a two-hour span each day that I can log in during, sorry about that. I have read it since, and stand by my vote. Still seems scummy to me, though I wont deny my initial vote was to prevent a no-lynch scenario.
I wouldn't suggest lynching town, but it's up to you. I'll let you know now, I'm Mmrnmhrm by race. I guess that's good, with no background of the game, it looks like a green jumble of letters to me.
But of course you can decide to lynch me anyway, as it is the choice of the majority and not myself.

[Papa Zito]

Yeah, my bad.
I hadn't realized that I hadn't actually hit the "submit" button until it was too late for me to go back and read what you guys had posted in my absence.

Wait, what? So you came back to the screen, realized you hadn't hit submit for, what days? and just decided to click it anyway without checking for new posts? For all you knew an entirely new wagon could have formed, or I could have been at L-1. This didn't register in your mind?

I wouldn't suggest lynching town, but it's up to you. I'll let you know now, I'm Mmrnmhrm by race. I guess that's good, with no background of the game, it looks like a green jumble of letters to me.

This is

extremely

unlikely. These events occur during SC2. The Mmrnmhrm were slaveshielded with the Chenjesu before SC2 started, and the only time they escape is after they've fused with the Chenjesu to form the Chmmr.

[Plum]

KEELIE: Your claim lacks a name and flavor bit. Please rectify that situation. Zito, if couldn't hurt to add flavor to your claim. Evaluation here is twitchy going.

[Plum]

Mmrnmhrm - Allied with Chenjesu; slave shielded after war

This combined with a nice, accurate-looking reference page I found for SCII would imply that first of all, yes, Mmrnmhrm should be Town and that Mmrnmhrm is not actually an unlikely claim. The page lists among its articles an article on Mmrnmhrm ship.

I need Porkens/someone else more familiar with SCII than I to help confirm this (or knock it down as the case may be).

[Papa Zito]

KEELIE: Your claim lacks a name and flavor bit. Please rectify that situation. Zito, if couldn't hurt to add flavor to your claim. Evaluation here is twitchy going.

There isn't a lot. I was kicked from the Alliance for being reckless and insubordinate. Now I'm trying to get back in their good graces by helping defeat the Hierarchy here.

[Plum]

KEELIE: Your claim lacks a name and flavor bit. Please rectify that situation. Zito, if couldn't hurt to add flavor to your claim. Evaluation here is twitchy going.

There isn't a lot. I was kicked from the Alliance for being reckless and insubordinate. Now I'm trying to get back in their good graces by helping defeat the Hierarchy here.

Why am I less than reassured by this?

[Papa Zito]

Mmrnmhrm - Allied with Chenjesu; slave shielded after war

This combined with a nice, accurate-looking reference page I found for SCII would imply that first of all, yes, Mmrnmhrm should be Town and that Mmrnmhrm is not actually an unlikely claim. The page lists among its articles an article on Mmrnmhrm ship.

I need Porkens/someone else more familiar with SCII than I to help confirm this (or knock it down as the case may be).

They are definitely Alliance, yes. But I gave a reason why they shouldn't be here.

SC2 has two modes. One is the regular story mode where the events I've talked about take place. You never meet the Mmrnmhrm in this mode, they have no dialogue or race encounter animation. The other mode is Super Melee where you can just fight ship vs. ship. (This mode is fun because you get to use any ship you want) The Mmrnmhrm ship (and the Chenjesu one) is playable here.

[Plum]

Mmrnmhrm - Allied with Chenjesu; slave shielded after war

This combined with a nice, accurate-looking reference page I found for SCII would imply that first of all, yes, Mmrnmhrm should be Town and that Mmrnmhrm is not actually an unlikely claim. The page lists among its articles an article on Mmrnmhrm ship.

I need Porkens/someone else more familiar with SCII than I to help confirm this (or knock it down as the case may be).

They are definitely Alliance, yes. But I gave a reason why they shouldn't be here.

SC2 has two modes. One is the regular story mode where the events I've talked about take place. You never meet the Mmrnmhrm in this mode, they have no dialogue or race encounter animation. The other mode is Super Melee where you can just fight ship vs. ship. (This mode is fun because you get to use any ship you want) The Mmrnmhrm ship (and the Chenjesu one) is playable here.

Hm. Okay. Let me think on this.

[Papa Zito]

KEELIE: Your claim lacks a name and flavor bit. Please rectify that situation. Zito, if couldn't hurt to add flavor to your claim. Evaluation here is twitchy going.

There isn't a lot. I was kicked from the Alliance for being reckless and insubordinate. Now I'm trying to get back in their good graces by helping defeat the Hierarchy here.

Why am I less than reassured by this?

Think Captain Kirk.

[KeelieRavenWolf]

Wait, what? So you came back to the screen, realized you hadn't hit submit for, what days? and just decided to click it anyway without checking for new posts? For all you knew an entirely new wagon could have formed, or I could have been at L-1. This didn't register in your mind?

No, after one day, not multiple days. I had promised a post and I did make it, I just hadn't hit submit. So the next day I submitted it.

This is extremely unlikely. These events occur during SC2. The Mmrnmhrm were slaveshielded with the Chenjesu before SC2 started, and the only time they escape is after they've fused with the Chenjesu to form the Chmmr.

I was just telling you what I was told was my race. Isn't there a possibility SpyreX changed the background of the game to fit his own personal dreams for this game?

KEELIE: Your claim lacks a name and flavor bit. Please rectify that situation.

Name, Rrna-hrn. Race, Mmrnmhrm. Unique mental structure, immune to mind-influencing effects and such.
No clue if that helps...