Catching up. All my other game responsibilities are in Night, so I'll be able to devote more time to this to keep it slipping out of my hands.
Excedrin wrote:Lets put it this way, how many scum are on Papa Zito's wagon right now? I thought about that and decided that I'm much happier on the Kast wagon.
Are you trying to imply that it's likely that two or three out of {Plum, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora} are scum? Well, a quick read of you in iso shows that you've been fairly neutral towards Kmd, same with me, and also Locke, whereas for almost the whole game you've been on Zito for an early-game reason later reinforced by a meta read. Things don't line up here. I don't understand what reservations you have with a Zito lynch or how you developed said reservations mentioned in your Post #242.
Furthermore your only further explanation, after I disliked your given reason to switch to Kast ('I think Porkens is Town and Porkens is voting him') is saying that 'Kast is likely scum' which was preceded by the fact that you felt more comfortable on the Kast wagon once you considered 'how many scum' were on it.
That speaks volumes right there.
However, a cursory reading of your case on Kast leads me to believe it's pretty decent (MORE COMMENTARY ON THE ACTUAL CASE/DRY-FIT/KAST/&C. TO COME). The fact that it came after all that junk makes it somewhat less reassuring, however.
Zito's list in his Post #249 makes me a good deal less suspicious of him, in fact. It's decent scumhunting/analysis, and while I still dislike the relative lack of this earlier in the game (and the OMGUS-toned accusations towards Porkens and Excedrin earlier in the game) thisis good on a gut level. Unfortunately, as Kast says, the Locke Lamora vote was not an effort likely to bear fruit at the time.
Kast wrote:@Plum-
-I get that you think Rising is scummy, however, consider that you may be letting that influence you and bias you to dismiss Rising's case against Dry-Fit.
-I have the impression that you may equate agreement with towniness. Consider if that is affecting your thoughts/analysis.
To be clear:
-You prefer a lynch of Excedrin, then Zito, then Rising.
-You are willing to vote others to secure a lynch rather than no lynch.
- There were pretty major flaws in Rising's original case on Dry-fit, but that's basically beside the point. To reread and analyze fully: I can understand both sides of the 'what did Kmd intend with his vote' thing - I originally thought it more serious than it was apparently intended myself (and I've explained why) so I see where Sigma's coming from. Dry-fit took it probably more in the spirit it was intended. Neither interpretation seems overtly scummy. If the idea that Kmd's vote/tone in the extreme early game were meant to draw reactions was firm in Dry-fit's mind I can understand why he might see Sigma's interpretations - which interpreted what he saw as a pro-town, nulltell act as a scumtell - as scummy. Frankly I don't see that as scummy. I don't see it particularly indicative, to my mind, of Dry-fit being scum. If you get a gut read on Dry-fit, good for you, I guess. Me, I'm mostly neutral (though I think he made a fair point about Sigma possibly rolefishing Porkens). His points against me seem to be clean of anything I'd consider scummy or misrepresentational. I don't understand your point about him potentially trying to put the blame on a Sigma mislynch he theoretically would orchestrate on you.
So with extra analysis I think I'm reading Dry-fit as well as I may. I find your disagreements on the count generally nulltells.
- ??? You think that when I say "I agree with what Player X said about X" I mean/feel that Player X is thus more likely to be Town/more Townie? I think in some cases it's legitimate reading of a Towntell (like I agree with what Player X said and that's good scumhunting, which is in my book a Towntell) and sometimes it's a mental fallacy (I agree with Player X on an issue in the game = he/she is more likely to be Town like me, which is a mental fallacy I fear slipping into and try to avoid. Sometimes I may fail. That's part of what I'm trying to improve at in Mafia now, confirmation bias, that kind of stuff).
- As of my latest post at the time you posted that, yes. Now? I hope to reread Locke Lamora now and I got a Town Vibe off Zito's Post #249, as I mentioned earlier.
- YES.
Rereading Locke Lamora:
First some questions he asked me to which I apparently did not respond:
Locke lamora wrote:Plum: two things. First of all, why is it not opportunistic for scum to vote for a townie who's clearly getting annoyed with the suspicion on him to the point that it makes him look scummy? Secondly, can you tell me where Zito said that NOT being on his wagon is a towntell, rather than being on his wagon is scummy?
1. Is it opportunistic? Yes. Is it discernible from a Townie voting for someone who looks a but scummy early? Not really. Insisting that it was likely that one of the two of them was likely to be scum because of "opportunistic voting" thus does not constitute decent scumhunting, which is hunting from legit scumtells. What Zito called Porkens and Excedrin out on was nulltell territory for that stage of the game and little better than OMGUS. Especially, as Excedrin pointed out, with little chance of Zito getting lynched purely for the reasons Kmd, Porkens, and Excedrin gave in their original votes for him.
2. Looking back, my recall was not perfectly accurate.
Papa Zito wrote:I wouldn't call them overly cautious. I'd call them observant enough to avoid a crap wagon.
The implication here isn't exactly that avoiding his wagon was a towntell; it was an 'observant-tell'. I disagree and the implication is untrue/unreliable in a way that goes hand-in-hand with what I discussed in point one. I still dislike it. What I said about him saying it was a towntell, however, is inaccurate and accidental.
More on Locke Lamora: Rereading he does a lot of early-game question-poking and not much translation into votes or concrete declarations of scumminess at all. I am now spending a lot of time trying to evaluate my gut feelings on Zito and Locka Lamora.
Locke Lamora wrote:Having read Zito's meta, KMD's assertion that he usually scumhunts more seems accurate. I think Zito's reaction could well be that he's simply a frustrated townie annoyed by the argument against him and I'm still a little uncomfortable about the way KMD attacked Zito but not to the point where I want a KMD lynch.
My gut reads this as trying hard to look like he's being balanced/reasonable/&c. in the eventual switch to Zito but the combination of the "maybe this maybe that" bit feels like scum leaving room to swing whichever way is most beneficial. Plus I don't see how the Zito meta read would change his idea that Kmd contradicted himself about Zito's sarcasm being or not being scummy was itself a scumtell.
I might have voted Locke but with Sigma's vote change that wagon is not happening. Will look into it later.
THAT said I have recently gotten a he-is-town vibe from Zito. I have gotten a she-is-useless-and-possibly-scummy vibe from Jelly. Jelly is a better bet, to me, than Zito. As Zito said, without any reread or anything or contribution of any sort she's willing to off Zito.
Claim is claim.
Unvote; Vote: Keelie
