Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[charter]

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (ElectricBadger)

Hoopla -3 (Gorrad, Vaya, ortolan)

Not Voting

AlmasterGM
Hoopla


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is October 10th, midnight.

[Hoopla]

You're assuming his role claim is correct. I don't think it is.

It'd be stupid to have a scumteam consisting of two miners and a goon, if they're competing with a cop, vig/sk, tracker and a JOAT. Gorrad is probably the most likely to be town, other than you.

[ElectricBadger]

You're assuming his role claim is correct. I don't think it is.

It'd be stupid to have a scumteam consisting of two miners and a goon

Yes. It's nonsensical to have 2 mafia miners; and nonsensical to have a townie whose only purpose is to counter another townie and help scum. A miner would have also chosen to target me at night rather than try to lynch me. Ergo, Gorrad is not a miner.

[Gorrad]

EB, if you ARE a PGO, then it's in the town's best interest to not have you asplode on one of them (especially with as many claimed PRs as we have now). I'm going to target you tonight because of that AND the fact that I /STILL/ don't know what my role does.

If we're lucky, you're scum and it kills you.

I still think you're scum, EB. If my role has a /chance/ of doing something bad to you (which, consider the flavor, it will), then I will do it. And if you're town and scum take advantage of this breach to NK you? It only confirms me.

Either way, good for the town.

[Vaya]

Unvote

After having thought it over a bit, I'm not sure if Hoopla is actually the best lynch for today. If she's a SK, then we only have one shot at killing mafia, whether we lynch her now and go for the mafia tomorrow, or go for the mafia today and lose if we mislynch tomorrow. The only benefit I can see in getting her out of the way first and going for the mafia tomorrow is that this would reduce the number of people we to choose from and increase our odds of getting the mafia with one lynch.

On the other hand, if Hoopla is a vig, then we get three shots at killing mafia if we don't lynch her. So the way I see it is if she's a SK, we have little to gain by lynching her now, but if she's a vig then we have more to gain from keeping her alive for now.

My plan regarding Hoopla is this. We lynch who we most suspect to be mafia today. If they flip scum, either we win at that time, or the game keeps going and Hoopla is lynched the following day for being a SK.

If they flip town, however, then we should actually go into endgame basically treating Hoopla as if she's confirmed town if she's not killed and not lynch her. I know that sounds crazy, but if Hoopla isn't town, then we've pretty much lost no matter what, so the best play would be to assume she is. Keep in mind that I'm assuming that Hoopla cannot be mafia because she claimed the other kills and that would mean that the mafia somehow gets two kills a night(and that she choose to kill her partner).

The really great thing about doing this is that it would put the mafia in a tight spot, even if we mislynch today. If they don't kill Hoopla tonight, then they go into endgame with Hoopla who's not being lynched, and EB, who is nearly undeniably not mafia. This means that the mafia is nearly forced to kill our potential-SK for us, without us having to waste a lynch on her.

A few suggestions if we go through with this. ortolan shouldn't protect anyone tonight. I think its best if we let as many people as possible die tonight so we can narrow down who the possible scum are. Having three people alive tomorrow is optimal. For that same reason, Hoopla should kill tonight. And Gorrad, of course, should not defuse EB.

Shoot, I didn't mean for this post to get so big. To summarize, my plan is to:

1. Try our best to lynch mafia today.
1a. If we succeed, lynch Hoopla if the game continues.
2. Tonight, Hoopla kills whoever she thinks is most likely to be scum. Gorrad and ort do nothing.
3. If Hoopla lives through the night, do not lynch her because she is not mafia. If she's a SK, then there's probably nothing town can do anyway.

This seems like a sound idea to me. Someone correct me if I'm missing something.

[Vaya]

Gorrad, stop and think about it for a second. If EB were a scum bomb, then why would scum have a miner? EB is the most likely to be town out of all of us and I really don't like how you're wanting to diffuse him.

[Gorrad]

There are six alive. With Hoopla NOT lynched tonight, there are three D4. If there's another mafia and Hoopla is an SK, we auto-lose. With Hoopla lynched tonight, there are four D4 and we're in LYLO.

LYLO or auto-lose if there are two anti-town. Those are our choices. Personally, I'm going for the former.

Also, for those saying Hoopla claiming the Mafia kill makes her impossible to be Mafia? Who's saying she's telling the truth? Those kills were almost definitely made by an SK, one who would have to counter-claim to call Hoopla's bluff. I say she's the mafia and EB's the SK.

[Vaya]

The idea of Hoopla lying about the kills crossed my mind, but it seems very unlikely. Why would she, as mafia, lie to protect someone who may be a SK? I don't see why she would risk it when she wouldn't even know if he was responsible for the kills, and could he been counterclaimed by an actual vig.

[Vaya]

Also Gorrad, are you saying that you are in favor of a Hoopla lynch?

[Hoopla]

There are six alive. With Hoopla NOT lynched tonight, there are three D4. If there's another mafia and Hoopla is an SK, we auto-lose. With Hoopla lynched tonight, there are four D4 and we're in LYLO.

LYLO or auto-lose if there are two anti-town. Those are our choices. Personally, I'm going for the former.

Also, for those saying Hoopla claiming the Mafia kill makes her impossible to be Mafia? Who's saying she's telling the truth? Those kills were almost definitely made by an SK, one who would have to counter-claim to call Hoopla's bluff. I say she's the mafia and EB's the SK.

Why on earth would I claim vig/SK kills as mafia? Especially if I was the only one in my team left alive.

1) It means I leave myself exposed to the real vig/SK counterclaiming the kills.
2) If the real vig/SK is lynched today, or dies at night I screw myself over as I am caught lying.
3) I basically say to the vig/SK that I am mafia, and if it's a vig, I will be the night target.


GREAT SCUM PLAN!

[ElectricBadger]

Mafia risking a counterclaim to save the one player they can't NK, who may be the SK or a vig, makes no sense at all.

[Gorrad]

Also Gorrad, are you saying that you are in favor of a Hoopla lynch?

If I was not, then why would I be voting for her?

She didn't claim the kills to protect, but rather to seal in her vig fakeclaim.

[Hoopla]

Also Gorrad, are you saying that you are in favor of a Hoopla lynch?

If I was not, then why would I be voting for her?

She didn't claim the kills to protect, but rather to seal in her vig fakeclaim.

So, do you still think I am mafia, or are you just going to turn a blind eye to my post? If so, please post a response to my logic.

If not (and since you are still voting me), you must think I am an SK. What does that make of your read on EB? You can't have it both ways.

[Gorrad]

1) Right. If the SK counterclaimed, then they would be lynched as soon as you flipped mafia.
2) True. Kinda stupid of you.
3) Godfathers, in my experience, often have some sort of NK protection.

IF. If you are SK, then that means that EB is town. In that case, the reason for a town and scum miner is because there are two bombs (one town and one scum) and the scum bomb is fakeclaiming.

[ortolan]

tbh I think you're completely barking up the wrong tree Gorrad. For the last mafioso to claim the SK/vig set of kills would be bizarre and nonsensical.

Gorrad: do you think it's possible charter just threw in your (seemingly pretty much useless) role and the interaction with EB to maintain some sort of link with actual stratego? Because everyone thing else about this game suggests the stratego setting and e.g. numbers is completely irrelevant to the game.

[Gorrad]

As far as EB goes, if I'm given a town power role that does something unknown to a specific person, then I FIND that person, I'm going to use it on said person. If it was anti-town, then I wouldn't have the power role.

[ortolan]

I think that approach is perfectly reasonable. I just disagree about the whole "Hoops might be mafia" thing- I believe she is quite clearly either an SK or a vig.

[Gorrad]

I wonder. Throwing this out there, what if the setup is 2-1-1-8, with flavor-based limitations on the ability to kill.

[AlmasterGM]

stuff

Your plan, in addition to the flaws Gorrad pointed out, completely ignores statistical probabilities as well. If there is a SK, there's a 100% chance it's Hoopla because she's claiming the kills. This essentially means we've got 50/50 odds if we lynch Hoops, since that's about how sure we are that there's a SK. With the mafia, however, we only 16% chance of hitting on a lynch. This is improved to 25% if we wait until the next day. Lynching Hoopla now, therefore, not only gives us better straight-up odds, but improves our odds of hitting the mafia member the next day.

Vote: Hoopla.

[Vaya]

Vote: Hoopla

Fine, disregard what I said before then. It was just a thought, nothing I feel so strongly about that I feel like arguing about it.

I'm certain that the mafia is either almaster or gorrad, leaning towards almaster.

And of course, we no lynch tomorrow, assuming one death.

[Hoopla]

No, those odds are rubbish because you're not taking other variables into play.

You know I am not mafia, it is quite likely Gorrad and EB are not mafia. I would put the chances of hitting mafia at about 30% today, if we lynched someone other than me. Regardless of whether I am a vig or SK, you will have ONE shot of lynching mafia if I am the lynch today.

Oh okay, I was just about to explain how lynching me is a statistically bad play, but never mind (I started this post earlier this afternoon and forgot about it).

Good luck town!

[Hoopla]

While it's twilight, I'm starting to believe Almaster could be mafia, but ortolan would have been my vig choice. It's a coin flip between those two.

Gorrad and EB are town, Vaya is probably town.

[Hoopla]

I hope my opinions aren't discarded too swiftly tomorrow.

[ElectricBadger]

Nice playing with ya Hoops. Hope to catch you in another game!

[charter]

Final vote count of day three.

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (ElectricBadger)

Hoopla -4 (Gorrad, ortolan, AlmasterGM, Vaya)

Not Voting

Hoopla


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is October 10th, midnight.