Mini 839 -- Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[Sotty7]

Okay I see he deadline voted him (how could I forget that?) and spent most of the time when his vote was off him talking about he was going to vote him. I retract my previous post.

[sigma]

I was a little confused. No wonder you didn't want to lynch him

[Sotty7]

My brain took a short vacation. Hopefully it is back with me now

[Porkens]

Vi: Until pop's little case, no one had said anything scummy about me, to my reccolection. The whole "erratic" post was the impetus for some pretty obvious writing on the wall (it's ok to call porkens scummy now because someone half-assedly suspected him).

Anyways, lynch imaginality.

[charter]

So about that read...
Working on that still, been busier than I expected the past few days.

[Sotty7]

Okay...

Unvote

I am willing to put my feelings on Vi on the back burner for now. Mostly because my ISO read of her kinda showed her answers in a better light than I first viewed them. Still not liking her suspicions of me, but I will deal with that for now.

I also re-read imaginality and can see where the wagon is coming from, still I don't think I will be voting for him today. Need to do more reading to decide where my vote is going to go. Right now I am thinking either Cruciare or maybe even Ojanen.

[imaginality]

3. I said in my earlier post I'd be voting for DRK or Cruciare, so it didn't 'magically' come out of nowhere, and in my first post today (I think) I said Vi, DRK and Cruciare were my main suspects. The switch from Cruciare to DRK came as a result of seeing some town-tells in Cruciare's posts that I hadn't noticed previously.

The problem is, you only mentioned DRK ONCE during the whole day. Ok, that sentence was 'Vi, Cruciare and DRK might be scum', but after that you were after Cruciare, and after the case died (either by Cruciare's towntells according to you, or because you saw that his lynch is impossible at this point IMO. Again it's a matter of perspective), you went after the easiest target around.

And it's hardly coincidence that my vote would land on the other lynch target besides me when pretty much everyone else aside from Cruciare and DRK was on the TMJ wagon and deservedly is under less suspicion today as a result.

Given that I think at least one if not both scum (if there are two) wouldn't have been on the TMJ lynch, Cru and DRK really are the right places for me to look.

It's a very different situation to pop's "lynch TMJ plsssss" yesterday which was clearly an attempt to deflect the pressure onto the other candidate rather than genuinely scumhunt.

Sotty doesn't seem to have problems with voting Vi, and Vi was in TMJ's wagon. We have votes against Afatchic/Ojanen, and some suspicions of Jammer/Charter. Vi is finding Porkens suspicious. As you can see, we're not down to 3 possibilities, so don't tell me there was no other way.

See bolded sentence. I really think one of me, Cruciare or DRK should die today.

There is a piece of further evidence that at the start of today I found Vi, Cruciare and DRK suspicious and was leaning town on everyone else that I can offer if necessary.

BTW, what do you think of Vi right now? She's still suspicious in your opinion, like at the beginning of D2?

See my next post, which will come along about 12 hours from now.

[RedCoyote]

--Restaurants--

Allen's Steakhouse
Arthur's Ribs 'n Chicken
Barbeque Central
BBQ Heaven
Bernice's Steaks
Big Daddy's Pitworks
Carnivorous Cuisine
Chris' Steak & BBQ
Don Coyote's Italian Bistro & Non-Mafia Related Establishment
Edge-Of-Your-Seat-Meats
Frank's Bar and Barbeque
Good Lands! BBQ 'n More
Good Prairie Steak Co.
Hank's Texas Cafe
Henry & Son Steakhouse...

---

Vote Count 2.4

• imaginality

  (Vi - Porkens - Col.Cathart - Ojanen)
  
  
  DeathRowKitty
  (Cruciare -

  Col.Cathart

  - imaginality - sigma)
  
  
  Ojanen
  (

  sigma

  -

  charter

  )
  
  
  Vi
  (

  Sotty7

  )
  
  
  Cruciare
  (

  imaginality

  )
  
  
  Not Voting
  (DeathRowKitty -

  Ojanen

  )

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.
The current deadline is

September 30th

.

[Ojanen]

I think col's point is valid about imaginality switching to DRK today.

What do you think about my counterpoint (that I'd already narrowed my choices down to Cru or DRK, and that there are few realistic suspects to vote today in any case)?

I don't think much of it.
Basically, in the start of day 2 you said you will look at Vi, Cruciare, DRK, which is everyone alive from final pops wagon minus you. But you went almost only after Cruciare in arguments and voted him.
Cruciare wagon wasn't going to places after that though, despite some support in words, contrary to the DRK one. Second post you made a wall-post of arguments against Cruciare, and stuck in the end one 2 sentence quote from him that you deemed kind of genuine seeming, and said you Cruciare and DRK are your vote choices.
Third post you switch to the DRK wagon with a tone and volume that doesn't seem convincing to me considering the wall of points you wrote againt Cruciare that you now suddenly drop.
True gut decisions can be odd, but this change in intuition, its convenience and the little thing you show it to be partially based on earlier doesn't feel right.
I find your vote change easier to read as survivalistic opportunism than an organic opinion change.

[DeathRowKitty]

His distancing from TMJ at the beginning of the game still looks very suspicious as well.

Care to point out where? o.O I searched my Iso posts and didn't even find a passing reference to TMJ at the beginning of the game.

Heavy suspicions (I'm happy with those lynches): DRK, for things I already said + low activity during D2.

School started up and putting everything off until the last minute finally caught up to me, hence my low Day 2 activity.

---

Right now, I plan on voting imaginality, largely because of points brought up by Ojanen here. Also, as I've mentioned, I feel the best place to look for scum is on the pops wagon. Looking at the final votecount, that leaves just 3 people: me, Cruciare, and imaginality. I don't currently support my own lynch. I have a gut town read on myself. That narrows it down to Cruciare and imaginality for me and I don't plan on voting Cruciare. Why?

I F H T B M L T H B A T C P (P S W A T A T F L O T A)


@anyone who has a "gut town read" on me or something similar
Why?

[Col.Cathart]

I F H T B M L T H B A T C P (P S W A T A T F L O T A)

Sorry, my humor detector fails me today. The acronym translator is in even worse shape, so please explain this... thing.

[Vi]

DRK, do you feel "boxed in" by having to suspect the {DRK, Cruciare, imaginality} group?
I dislike votes chosen by process of elimination - especially in this case when you have specifically said you're unimpressed by the case on imaginality.

My initial response to your predicament was that you were well-meaning but got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time. Rereading your posts, that read is getting strained - particularly because if there is only one scum left and you are that scum, you have a good reason to please everyone you can, which to a degree it seems like you're trying to do with the slashing of essentially everyone off your list of suspicion.

That was a worthwhile reread; thanks for asking me why I had a gut Town read on you~

[DeathRowKitty]

@CC
If I was really going to explain it now, why would I have given it as an acronym?

DRK, do you feel "boxed in" by having to suspect the {DRK, Cruciare, imaginality} group?

I don't feel "boxed in" by that group. I think it's the most likely place to find scum, especially since Mafia Framer can be a powerful role if used properly. I just don't think there would be a unanimous scum push to bus the framer (regardless of how many scum there actually are). If there are 3 scum, I would think at least one of TMJ's buddies would have tried to save him and if there are 2, I doubt his buddy would sit by and watch him get lynched Day 1.

you have specifically said you're unimpressed by the case on imaginality.

IIRC, that was directed more towards your Day 1 case on imaginality. Plus, new posts have been made about imaginality since then.

[Cruciare]

What I don't like here is how Imaginality is like

everyone's

top suspect. That makes sense if there is only one scum left, but unlike Vi and others I personally believe there's more likely to be two. And before anyone points it out, note that me and Imaginality being scumbuddies is quite impossible from my point of view.

Let me get back to my comment D1 where I said there was only one question in Vi's survey worth noting the answers to - that was question 7: "How many scum do you think are in this game?". My reasons for looking at this question are different from Vi's "OMG setup speculation": it's the one question that can actually potentially differentiate roles and alignments. In all the other questions, people can just answer honestly, but in this one, town's answers may be swayed by balance speculation with regard to their role, and scum can't properly answer because it's like telling them to guess the number of jellybeans in the jar when they've already counted. Granted, scum can just lie here, but even then they'll actually have to make up an answer and attempts to give the most beneficial reply (not that I know what that is) may be evident. TMJ's answer was 3-4. Now that doesn't guarantee anything, but it sort of inclines me to believe that there are at least 3 mafia. Reasoning further below.

Afatchic's answer was 3 with a question mark. Col's was 3 or 4. DRK's was 3. Imaginality's was 4≥X≥3. Jammer's was 3 or 4, leaning 3. Porkens's was 3. Sigma's was 3. Vi's was 3. Me, James, and Y.C. didn't answer.

My immediate instict told me that those who answered 3-4 were more suspicious than those who answered 3, but the logic behind that isn't very strong, and would be a debate for another day. What's funny is that no-one even considered the possibility of 2 scum. For those who answered 3, it's reasonable as they interpreted the question as requiring a single digit answer, and 3 scum is far more likely than 2. Maybe I'm stretching here, but as for those who answered 3-4, those who believed it was acceptable to give a range, why not answer 2-4? If they're going to be all uncertain, why not include the possibility of 2 scum? It's like that possibility didn't consciously exist in the first place. Am I looking too deeply here?

No-one

(out of those who answered the survey) considered the possibility of 2 scum when they answered the survey.

I'd like to pose this question again to everyone alive: How many

scum

mafia

do you think are in this game

including TMJ

? Please answer 'probably 2', 'probably 3', or 'not a clue'.

Now let me get to my next point, the reason why I've been asking DRK and Imaginality what they thought of Afatchic. From my interpretation, they aren't very suspicious of him. As such I reveal my master diagram:

DRK: Suspicious of

Imaginality

, Not Suspicious of

Ojanen

, Not Suspicious of

Cruciare

Imaginality: Suspicious of

DRK

, Not Suspicious of

Ojanen

, Suspicious of

Cruciare

Ojanen: Not Suspicious of

DRK

, Suspicious of

Imaginality

, Not Suspicious of

Cruciare

Cruciare: Suspicious of

DRK

, Suspicious of

Imaginality

, Suspicious of

Ojanen

Please ignore the fact that my stance looks the worst (I'm pretty paranoid now). Anyway, I'm sure we can conclude that if Imaginality is scum and has another scumbuddy (I'm assuming there are two mafia left), it is not DRK or Ojanen (or me). That means it's one of the people on the TMJ wagon, which somewhat worries me. I've already expressed my doubts about any of the people on the TMJ wagon being scum, and the one exception Vi is the primary pusher for an Imaginality lynch so we can rule her out. The other

possible

exception Sigma is like the most unsuspicious player here, I'm sure we can all agree. The other two who aren't currently voting Imaginality are Sotty and Jammer/Charter, and I will be rereading those two. However the fact that both of these people could easily have prevented the lynching of TMJ-Scum does not change. Ojanen believes Jammer's actions may have been bussing, but I don't really agree. Jammer did stick out early D1, but he was the one person who had the chance to move wagons and hammer Pops before deadline (Iso 18). Think about it: If Pops had been lynched and flipped doctor, would we really have gone straight for TMJ the next day? Because scum thinking this is the only reason why they would be on the TMJ wagon. And I don't think we would.

Another question to everyone: What are the reasons for you thinking that there may/may not be scum on TMJ's wagon?

Therefore based on my two beliefs that 1) There are probably two mafia still alive, and 2) Chances are no-one on the TMJ wagon is mafia, lynching Imaginality worries me. By my assumptions, the only logical scumpair is DRK/Ojanen, but again, it is based on pure speculation, no solid evidence, I have nothing

strongly

against lynching Imaginality, etc. Anyway, these are my thoughts. I'd like everyone if possible to either agree with me or try convince me otherwise. I'm pretty unsure now.

[charter]

Vi looks ridiculously scummy, with the constant pops lynch attempts, then essentially being forced to hammer to prevent a no lynch.

I am pretty sure it is Vi and Cruciare.

Sorry for not doing my usual chronological highlight of scummy posts. I'll be back with my reasons for this in a sec.

[Cruciare]

I am pretty sure it is Vi and Cruciare.

I

know

for sure you're wrong here.

[Vi]

If imaginality were everyone's top suspect there wouldn't be a 4-3 split in the votes. As it is I will be shocked and amazed if Ojanen is scum.

I don't think you're going in any right directions with this take on how many scum there are. You already know my answer to how many Mafia I think there are ITT though.

If you have nothing

strongly

against lynching imaginality, why make the giant WHOAHEYOBVIOUSDERAILMENTPOST?

There's one person that's getting the silent treatment in your wall - jammer/charter. Thoughts?

-----

I am pretty sure it is Vi and Cruciare.

You couldn't be more wrong.
...well, you COULD, but it would take noticeably more effort to get people to believe you.

[Cruciare]

If imaginality were everyone's top suspect there wouldn't be a 4-3 split in the votes. As it is I will be shocked and amazed if Ojanen is scum.

People suspicious of Imaginality: Vi, Porkens, Col, Ojanen, DRK. People on the other wagon: Imaginality, Cruciare, Sigma. People suspicious of Vi and Cruciare: Sotty, Charter. I think my word choice 'everyone' is justified, and I've said something about everyone not on Imaginality's wagon. By 'everyone' I specifically mean you (Vi), Ojanen and DRK - 'everyone possible of being a suspect (by my logic) other than Imaginality himself'. And you guys are giving Ojanen way too much credit here, I'm not experiencing this ray of enlightenment most of you are after Afatchic replaced out.

If you have nothing

strongly

against lynching imaginality, why make the giant WHOAHEYOBVIOUSDERAILMENTPOST?

I'm

ready

to vote for anyone, yes, but I'd

prefer

to vote for the one that's actually, you know, scum?

Post is giant because I haven't posted in a while, and I felt the need to supersize.

There's one person that's getting the silent treatment in your wall - jammer/charter. Thoughts?

WITH RESPECT GENERAL, YOU ARE WRONG [/CHERDENKO]

The other two who aren't currently voting Imaginality are Sotty and Jammer/Charter, and I will be rereading those two. However the fact that both of these people could easily have prevented the lynching of TMJ-Scum does not change. Ojanen believes Jammer's actions may have been bussing, but I don't really agree. Jammer did stick out early D1, but he was the one person who had the chance to move wagons and hammer Pops before deadline (Iso 18).

[Vi]

Ojanen's play since he has replaced in has been obvTown.

ACCEPT IT

Why don't you think so?

Acknowledged on the second point.

I disagree with your disagreement that jammer's actions may have been bussing, considering--

TMJ is well, TMJ. Looking at it, I doubt you could draw a solid conclusion out of him later. Is it part of his playing style or is it real scummy behaviour.

If we don´t lynch him today, I think we are likely to lynch him at some point later in the game.

Counterquestion. What would you expect scum to do when confronted with Townpops' claim?

To contrast, what would you expect Town to do when confronted with ?pops' claim?

1) Get the heck off the wagon.

2) Question the claim.

I am pretty much voting TMJ over pops becouse of pops doc claim, yes.

Eagerly awaiting charter's reasoning for me and Cruciare being the scummiest. Your sec is up.

[sigma]

His distancing from TMJ at the beginning of the game still looks very suspicious as well.

Care to point out where? o.O I searched my Iso posts and didn't even find a passing reference to TMJ at the beginning of the game.

Shouldn't have used the word distancing. You didn't mention TMJ until page 6. I find that suspicious.

[Cruciare]

You have a point about Jammer's Iso 17. Ojanen obvtown? I'm not seeing it. Whilst there has been nothing incriminatingly scummy about her posts, I don't see anything that points to her being obvtown either. My favourite post of hers is probably Iso 7.

[Sotty7]

Little suspicions: Jammer/Charter (I can't deny that Jammer did several weird things, on the other hand his play is entirely different from Jammer-Scum I know

What's the difference?

I know this sounds weird in mouth of someone who is the main supporter of DRK lynch, but this is serious scum alarm in my head. Mainly because after going after Cruciare he magically votes somewhere else, when it's visible, that lynching Cruciare doesn't seem to be an option anymore, and it's coincidentally landing at other possible lynch target besides him.

This is a good point.

See bolded sentence. I really think one of me, Cruciare or DRK should die today.

Why do you think you should die today?

@anyone who has a "gut town read" on me or something similar
Why?

I think I explained mine already. Has to do with your extreme tunneling on Pops.

@Cruciare post 488: Honestly, I have no idea how many scum there is left in this game. Vi makes a good point about the possibility of having only two, but I don't trust her enough to commit myself that way. Right now I am of the belief that we should just lynch the scummiest player and worry about the set up later when we get closer to end game. We could theorize all game about the set up but in the end we have to lynch someone. I'm going to vote based off my suspicions, not set up speculation.

Vi looks ridiculously scummy, with the constant pops lynch attempts, then essentially being forced to hammer to prevent a no lynch.

I am pretty sure it is Vi and Cruciare.

Sorry for not doing my usual chronological highlight of scummy posts. I'll be back with my reasons for this in a sec.

Glad I'm not insane.

Ojanen's play since he has replaced in has been obvTown.

ACCEPT IT

Why don't you think so?

My issue with Ojanen is she spent time doing an PBPA of Jammer when he wasn't her top suspect, it felt like a distraction. But I will say her reasoning on imaginality is pretty good/townie like.

[Sotty7]

I do have to ask...

@Col.Cathart: Before you read too much into that, consider--

just realize I haven't

post

here...again

*

haunt

the thread*

good luck to the remaining player...

Bad English FTL.

@Vi, why are you so interested in the setup design?

I believe all of you are wrong. 3 Mafia and a Survivor means that two mislynches theoretically end the game; I would consider it worse than 8-3-SK (a setup that has burned people because Town can lynch correctly each Day after Day 1 and still lose, but at least there's a possibility of crosskills). To my knowledge 9-2-Survivor is considered balanced.

What changed in this time? You were quick to dismiss CC picking up on TMJ talking about the remaining "player". However, according to post 395, you believed since Pops flip that there was only two scum.

[imaginality]

[quote="imaginality]
See bolded sentence. I really think one of me, Cruciare or DRK should die today.

Why do you think you should die today?[/quote]

I wrote that from an objective perspective: I think at least one scum is on the pops wagon. Therefore it's better we lynch one of us three than one of the other seven, as even a mislynch narrows down the possibilities of who the scum amongst us is rather than a mislynch of one of the rest of you.

Subjectively, of course, I don't think I should be the one to die today (or any other day! ).


Following up on my previous post:

There is a piece of further evidence that at the start of today I found Vi, Cruciare and DRK suspicious and was leaning town on everyone else that I can offer if necessary.

The evidence I mentioned above: Sotty7 and I are neighbours.

I breadcrumbed being neighbours to Sotty7 (well, James.Denholm at that point) in my first post:

N

ice to see we're out of the random vote stage already.

E

xcellent.

A

nd Y.C deserves a slight FoS for seemingly trying to avoid commenting on the whole survey thing either way.

R

andom-voting when there's already some real if small reasons to vote people is lazy at best and suspiciously trying to stay under the radar at worst.

J

ust to give my thoughts on the survey faff (I'm heading out now so I'll answer the survey itself, and comment more on the other posts, in my next post):

A

nswering this survey is, as Vi said, not something a pro-town player should fear.

M

aybe at worst it could be pointless (but no more so than the random vote stage), but how and what people answer does have the potential to be useful.

E

xpecting that Vi would avoid the fray simply because he asked the questions is ridiculous; if anything he'd come under more attention for doing so (and he has), unless the town is full of idiots, and Vi would definitely be expected to answer them himself.

S

o, I find Porkens' reaction to the survey rather over-the-top.

[/quote]

Obviously, being neighbours is not in itself an indication of alignment. However, claiming it does at least let me prove that I suspected Cruciare, DRK and Vi during the night. I accept that demonstrating I expressed suspicion of DRK overnight doesn't rule out Ojanen's claim that the timing of my vote switch to DRK today was opportunistic (I know it wasn't, but can't really prove that, so that's up to the rest of you how you want to read it). But it does at least show that I was suspicious of DRK before knowing what others' suspicions were.

Sotty7, can you please confirm that in our night chat, DRK, Cru and Vi were the players I expressed suspicion of, while I viewed the rest of you as more likely town?

Incidentally, the only other player I mentioned being strongly suspicious of during the night was popsofctown. And arguably, my continued suspicion of him is further evidence that I'm town, since the pops nightkill shows scum clearly didn't suspect pops of lying. However that line of defense could get WIFOMy so I'll just leave it at that.

[imaginality]

So. Now to explain my comment about Vi earlier.

I think Vi has more or less soft-claimed cop and want him to be explicit about this.

The main reason I think he's soft-claimed is because of:

iso66 - There's really nowhere I can go at this point as far as pressing my suspicions without resorting to *dramatic chords* desperate measures.
Which I fully plan to do, but I'm still deciding on the hows and the whens.

iso70 - In the event that there is one scum remaining, associative tells among the living are useless and more importantly I can proceed with the aforementioned desperate measures. In the event that I'm wrong, Bad Things can potentially happen by assuming otherwise.

And looking through Vi's posts, there are a few other possible breadcrumb-y allusions:

iso5 - investigation
iso7- *scribbles in notebook*
iso39 - Porkens and imaginality are worth investigation.
iso58 - I know my answer.

Now, why would I want to out the cop? Well, I probably wouldn't have raised this but iso66 and iso70 seem so obviously hinting at "I have extra info up my sleeve" that I think the scum would certainly have picked up on that too. Especially since knowing they had a framer on their side would put them on the lookout for a cop.

So I don't think I've put Vi in any more danger of a night-kill by posting these thoughts than he was already in. That's why I don't think it's anti-town to press Vi for full disclosure about whether or not he's a cop (or other investigative role).

But why do I think it's pro-town to press Vi about this? Two reasons:

1. Minor reason: If Vi gets night-killed (which I think would have been somewhat likely to happen tonight if he's town, since as I say, I'd be surprised if scum didn't notice his soft-claim) it's better if he tells us now what results he's obtained rather than have to sift through breadcrumbs to find them after his death.

2. More importantly, I really don't like letting him push for a lynch on me with merely a soft-claim. It gives his case a bit of 'I'm the cop do as I say' authority for anyone who read between the lines of iso66 and iso70, without pinning him down into explicitly claiming a result on me. This means that at the moment he still has some weasel room tomorrow if he's scum ("Yes, I'm cop, but I didn't actually investigate imaginality, I had an inno on someone else, I just thought he was the best lynch.")

I also think, given we have a survivor in here, there's an outside chance we have 2 scum + lyncher + survivor, with Vi as lyncher and me as target, which would also give him motive to fake-claim cop. Admittedly, this is more likely my paranoia talking, triggered by the way Vi's focused so heavily on me today.

To counter the obvious question of why would townie-me worry about cop-Vi investigating me, as mentioned I'm more worried that he might be scum setting up a fake claim, and I want to pin him to that now rather than wait 'til later. But I can also see some town cop possibilities that could lead to him having a (misleading) result on me: insane/paranoid, or the M-word, or bus-driver-y stuff going on perhaps.


Anyhow. Very curious to hear your thoughts about my thoughts, Vi...