/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[elvis_knits]

Third, I find EK incredibly suspect. After all this talk, she talks a lot about how IAUN's actions don't make sense or whatever, but no votes from it, she's voting me, a pointless vote.

There are others who have concerns about rofl/IAAU but haven't voted for either of them, why is Elvis_knits special?

I'm really not liking the entirety of the post this comes from.

This is the second time Charter has called me out on something that multiple people did, and actually mutiple people probably did worse. He singled me out on the VP wagon, which didn't make much sense, IMO.

Yet he never votes me. It's more like he's just doing it to pressure me into voting how he wants me to vote.

[mith]

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

iamausername: 3 (charter, Kmd4390, roflcopter)
roflcopter: 3 (elvis_knits, iamausername, SerialClergyman)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
charter: 1 (zu_Faul)
Kmd4390: 1 (populartajo)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (Thesp)

Not Voting: 2 (ekiM, PookyTheMagicalBear)

[zu_Faul]

I'd be happy with a Pooky or charter lynch. I'd be ok with a rofl or iaun lynch. Please don't make me choose between those two.

Pooky plays like he's a jester.

I totally don't see elvis' point against rofl about BAB.

[Kmd4390]

Why is Iam still alive?

[elvis_knits]

I feel like a lot of people that were active at one point (like when they were under pressure) are not being very active lately. Like serial, ekiM and VP, to name a few. This makes me nervous.

[Thesp]

I'd be happy with a Pooky or charter lynch. I'd be ok with a rofl or iaun lynch. Please don't make me choose between those two.

This.

[charter]

There are others who have concerns about rofl/IAAU but haven't voted for either of them, why is Elvis_knits special?

I missed them, who else did this?

I'd be happy with a Pooky or charter lynch. I'd be ok with a rofl or iaun lynch. Please don't make me choose between those two.

This is horribly antitown. There's clearly a scum within one of them, why would you lynch someone else? Also, refusing to choose, is scummy. Same goes to Thesp. Zu Faul and Thesp, if you were to vote for one of rofl/iaun, who would it be?

Why is Iam still alive?

Really not sure.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

there are no jesters zu, this is a semi-open setup.

I'm totally protown. cuz I said so. Thesp is so scum tho. Trying to lynch Pooky. The only thesp that would try to get pooky lynched is a scumthesp, cuz townThesp knows better.

I throw out the both innocent case of rofl/iam because the odds of a scumroleblocker blocking our jailblocker resulting in bungled results is astronomically low.


I believe rofl over iam because iam feels fishy to me and I think he basically bungled a counterclaim. Plus rofl just feels townish to me. plus I don't like how he decided to play his jailkeeper role tho that could be just personal preference.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

oh yea

vote Iam

[populartajo]

Sup.

this shit got complicated while i was away

anyway, i'm a vanilla cop. vanillas: yos, baltar

yos i thought was scummy enough day one to check out, had he scanned non vanilla i would have been on his back day two ready to pounce at the first sign of fake vanilla claim, but instead i got the innocent confirm. baltar was an easy decision, as with his claimed vanilla i could actually use my ability like a normal cop.

I was expecting something like this, choices make sense.

I'm an X-shot Jailkeeper (not telling you what X is unless someone gives me a good reason why I should), and I jailed rofl on N1.

I jailed him because I believed he was scum, and no one else did, so if I was right, good chance he'd be making the scum kill and I'd block it, and if I was wrong, good chance he'd be the target of the scum kill and I'd protect him. Seemed like the best choice all around.

Fair nuff. I still dont get whats so scummy about rolf day 1, though.

I'm also aware that I could have been targeted by a Mafia Roleblocker on N1, and that this would have allowed rofl to get his result. However, for this to be true, you have to also believe that the scum did not decide to block rofl on N2, despite him having very obviously softclaimed an investigative role, and there being no other power roles exposed. That seems very unlikely to me.

Actually I think this isnt that unlikely. Ojanen flipping goon cop increases the probs of a roleblocker in the setup. You played a solid day 1 and I dont think all people considered rolf an investigative role. This also doesnt consider the fact that there might have been a better choice for scum. (which if Im right about this, means rolf is probably going in the wrong direction btw).

I was fearing that this was going to happen. Rolf is playing his usual town self (trust me, the guy is so easy to read as scum) but I dont think iam is scum "counterclaiming" that way. Now that I think about it, I just wish iam hadnt pressured for a claim when there wasnt a 100% 1-1. Im thinking both are town or I am horribly wrong about one of them.

So, yeah, I don't have 100% damning evidence that rofl is scum, if I did, I would have just gone ahead and said so without waiting for a claim from him first. If you really think that necessitates a lynch on me, then I guess go ahead, but I don't believe that what I've done here has hurt the town.

Yes it does, if both of you are town.

By the way, we're not lynching rofl today. It would clearly be a better idea to lynch Yos, because he is definitely scum if rofl is scum, and on the off chance that rofl is actually telling the truth, we'd be lynching a vanilla rather than a cop.

Unvote, Vote: Yosarian2

Wat? I mean, if you just assumed it would be a 1-1 with rolf, so why exactly are you voting Yos? If you lynch Yos first and he is vanilla, what information do you get about rolf other than he was right about Yos being vanilla?

I was skimming the thread to write about the best solution to this situation but Yos wins the "I agree with" award here.

I personally think if there is a mafia roleblocker who happened to block IAUN N1 and not rofl N2, the game is essentially gone.

Not really.

If they are both town, and we don't lynch either one of them today, then there's a chance that one or the other would be able to confirm themselves tonight, and there's also a chance the mafia will feel the need to kill one of them tonight. It's probably not that likely that Iamusername was blocked by a scum roleblocker, though.

Also, I'm not liking the "lynch rofl and then if he's town we have two confirmed innocents" camp here. If rofl is town, then if we don't lynch him, we're likely to either get another confirmed innocent tomorrow or else force the scum to use their kill on him. If someone really thinks he's scum, then that's one thing, but you don't lynch a cop just to find out if he's telling the truth, that's insane.

Between the two of them, though, I think Iamusername is significantly scummier. His whole "let's lynch Yos first" plan really looks more like a scum move then like a town move; he lynches me, then when I come up vanilla, town wouldn't know anything more tommorow then they know now, and Iamusername is free to either go with a "rofl guessed right but he's still lying scum" gambit or else a "gee, I guess I did get roleblocked" gambit. The whole thing just feels like a carefully planned setup.

I dont like Elvis point about rolf having to derail the bridges wagon and check him when the guy was really really scummy even when she knows how townrolf plays. Also charter is still town. And I still have no idea why kmd is still alive. If there is a third party we should lynch is definitely him.

Meh, all other posts are opinions about this situation and people taking sides. I really dont want to lynch rolf and if I had to pick I would go with iam, only because I trust my rolftown read but I really dont want to bet the game in a failed assumption that its not that unlikely.

Anyways, there is no need to end the day and I want to hear more about everyone else. Im willing to push the kmd wagon and I also think pooky could be a good choice (reaction to the pressure early at the day).

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

pooky terrible choice

pooky town

[ekiM]

Hi guys, sorry for not getting on over the weekend. I will try to catch up this evening.

[SerialClergyman]

New place is great, still no net. Vla for another couple of days, sorry guys!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

news update:

pooky still town

pooky lynch still very bad for town.

for serious!

[populartajo]

Where is everyone?

Pooky, thoughts of kmd.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, if we're going to lynch someone who's not (rofl/Iam) today, KMD's a good choice, he's looked pretty scummy all game.

I'd defiantly be willing to lynch either KMD or Iamusername today.

[VP Baltar]

I promise a catch up post today or you can lynch me. I do apologize. I was behind in a couple other games and had a lot of work the past few days, so I neglected here.

[Thesp]

There are others who have concerns about rofl/IAAU but haven't voted for either of them, why is Elvis_knits special?

I missed them, who else did this?

Me, for one.

Zu Faul and Thesp, if you were to vote for one of rofl/iaun, who would it be?

Still roflcopter, by a good bit.

[zu_Faul]

Zu Faul and Thesp, if you were to vote for one of rofl/iaun, who would it be?

IAUN. Gut.

[VP Baltar]

I think charter makes some good points at the close of 1373. I also disagree with the logic that IAAUN scum would never claim like he did. If he believed rofl was a real PR, then why not try and get him, especially if he believed he was some sort of investigator.

However, I also don't necessarily agree with the camps that are arguing today needs to be one or the other. There is still a possibility that they are both telling the truth. EK's argument that killing rofl will at least confirm two people isn't a good one to make. Say he comes up town and Yos and I are confirmed. Guarantee that one of us gets iced tonight. So, yes, you have one confirmed town tomorrow, but you still have a questionable IAAUN at that point and all those who wanted rofl dead would also look scummy. That's a horrible situation to be in when it could be lylo tomorrow. Same thing is basically true of IAAUN lynch, except we won't get the one innocent. Yos might have the right idea about letting the scum sort it out. If either of them is telling the truth, they are big threats to the scum that I am sure they would want out of the way.

If I had to pick one of their lynches it would be iam for the Yos push and I'm more inclined to believe rofl based on my own role (though, again, that could have been easily manufactured given I had already claimed).

thesp+charter totally scumbags

Don't necessarily agree

ekim also scumbag

fo sho.

Agree!

This was my understanding as well.

Apparently we are crazy.

I feel like a lot of people that were active at one point (like when they were under pressure) are not being very active lately.

Again, sorry.

Pooky is town I hear...

Apparently there have been 3 pages with not a lot of substance being said. I think we need to determine if we are going with a third party lynch or picking out of our claimed powerroles.

[elvis_knits]

We are really scatterbrained here, ppl.

These are the facts:

Iamausername forced rofl to claim.
Rofl claimed vanilla cop with two innocents on Yos and VPBaltar.
Iamausername claimed jailkeeper who kept rofl N1

Our choices are:
1)Rofl is scum
2)Iamausername was blocked
3)Iamausername is scum who decided it would be a good idea to fake claim out of nowhere

I would like everyone to say which of the above 1, 2, 3 they think is most likely and why.

The only reason we should lynch someone outside of rofl/iam is if people think iam was blocked. Or they just don't have the balls to deal with the situation.

[ekiM]

I agree with Elvis. I see a lot of bloviation but not much clear thinking or progress towards a consensus.

---

Firstly, I find 2) to be very unlikely. For it to be true, there would have to be a scum blocker; they would've had to have blocked iam night one; and they would've had to have not blocked rofl. I think the odds of all that coming together are long.

Unless someone has a strong reason to challenge this thinking, one of them is scum. I am going to assume this is the case.

---

If one of them is scum, we should lynch one of them. I think this is clear. If someone claimed cop with a guilty, we'd lynch either the claimer or his target. Right? If we don't allow for a roleblocker, iam's claimed info is as damning as a guilty.

---

So which do I think is more likely to be scum? roflcopter.

I've had a good pro-town read on iam all game and have had mixed feelings on rofl. So my first inclination was very much in favor of iam. Both of their claims make sense to me in terms of their night choices and so on, but I still don't see what pro-town things rofltown would hope to accomplish with his softclaim schtick yesterday. So let's look at how the claim went down:

When iam came out, there was no clear wagon developing. Even allowing that scum would find a 1-1 trade worthwhile (which I'm not really convinced of), why would he spring it then when he could've waited a day or two and seen if there was any support for a wagon on a townie and got a 0-1 trade? I don't see any good reasons why. iam's play in claiming makes a lot more sense to me from town than from scum.

---

I also found it instructive to look at who seems to prefer which lynch:

People who prefer rofl lynch: iam, elvis, SC, ekiM
People who prefer iam lynch: rofl, KMD, charter, Pooky, VP, Tajo, Yos
People I can't tell: zu, Thesp

(Sorry if I'm misremembering anyone's position.)

I had town reads on everyone who prefers rofl. Elvis and SC also felt very genuine to me in the discussion following the claims. Most of the people preferring iam have been suspect to me to a greater or lesser degree (all of them but KMD were on the Xyl lynch, for starters!). This is reassuring.

---

So,

Vote: roflcopter

.

I think everyone should answer Elvis' question.

[iamausername]

Here's the thing. If me and rofl were both town, you can bet that scum would be going all out with the "one of rofl and iam MUST be scum" idea. Why wouldn't they? It's two free mislynches right there. So, the fact that there is a significant amount support for the idea that maybe me and rofl are both town makes it less likely that that is actually the case, I think. And it wasn't exactly very likely in the first place.

People who prefer rofl lynch: iam, elvis, SC, ekiM
People who prefer iam lynch: rofl, KMD, charter, Pooky, VP, Tajo, Yos
People I can't tell: zu, Thesp

IAUN. Gut.

Still roflcopter, by a good bit.

So I win 8 to 5. BOOYAH.

Can we just get on with it already?

[mith]

Deadline:

Approximately 6 days from this post.

[VP Baltar]

We are really scatterbrained here, ppl.

These are the facts:

Iamausername forced rofl to claim.
Rofl claimed vanilla cop with two innocents on Yos and VPBaltar.
Iamausername claimed jailkeeper who kept rofl N1

Our choices are:
1)Rofl is scum
2)Iamausername was blocked
3)Iamausername is scum who decided it would be a good idea to fake claim out of nowhere

I would like everyone to say which of the above 1, 2, 3 they think is most likely and why.

If I am picking from your list, then I'm going with #3 for reasons I already stated. I also don't see much difference this game from rofl's usual town style.

That being said, I'd still like you to address my earlier points EK:

I also disagree with the logic that IAAUN scum would never claim like he did. If he believed rofl was a real PR, then why not try and get him, especially if he believed he was some sort of investigator.

Let me expound on this a bit, because I don't think I was entirely clear. IAAUN stated that he felt rofl was an investigative PR, so does that make scum going for a 1-1 trade more likely to you? If Iam is a goon and we are as close to lylo as we could be, wouldn't framing rofl and hoping to talk their way out of it the next day be a worthwhile risk to take for scum? Do you think rofl flipping town would mean that Iam is going to get insta-lynched tomorrow? If scum were to pursue such a plan, do you think they would be better served by forcing rofl to claim first?

Also, could you give me your thoughts on this:

EK's argument that killing rofl will at least confirm two people isn't a good one to make. Say he comes up town and Yos and I are confirmed. Guarantee that one of us gets iced tonight. So, yes, you have one confirmed town tomorrow, but you still have a questionable IAAUN at that point and all those who wanted rofl dead would also look scummy. That's a horrible situation to be in when it could be lylo tomorrow. Same thing is basically true of IAAUN lynch, except we won't get the one innocent.