Mini 839 -- Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[Vi]

Sure.
8/12 Town Day 1
7/11 Town Night 1
6/10 Town Day 2
5/9 Town Night 2
4/8 Town Day 3

4/8 is 50% of the Town. At that point the Survivor can claim and vote No Lynch. At that point it becomes virtually impossible for the Town to win - they can't lynch scum unless they feel like bussing for some reason, and they certainly aren't going to NK the Survivor so the problem won't go away. They can try to lynch the Survivor, but after that Night the Mafia actually does make up 50% of the players and thus wins. And of course the Mafia forcelynching No Lynch twice wins the game.

Survivor is scum. This is why standard practice is to lynch them on sight.

----

I acknowledge the DRK case as not terribly bad. I still would like to lynch imaginality though.

[Sotty7]

@Vi, why are you so interested in the setup design?

I believe all of you are wrong. 3 Mafia and a Survivor means that two mislynches theoretically end the game; I would consider it worse than 8-3-SK (a setup that has burned people because Town can lynch correctly each Day after Day 1 and still lose, but at least there's a possibility of crosskills). To my knowledge 9-2-Survivor is considered balanced.

But doesn't 2 mafia and a survivor means two correct lynches and the town wins? That doesn't seem incredibility balanced to me either. That said, set up design isn't my strong point combined with TMJ talking about the remaining player, maybe Vi is on to something.

But....Vi has been the one to bring up the number of scum in the game over anyone else. Her survey at the start of the game had that question. If she was scum with just TMJ as her partner then slipping that question into the survey could be her way to feel out what else is out there if someone answers something other than 3.

That could be just extreme paranoia talking though and if we are just going to look at who was on the Pops wagon come end of day then my list would look like this:

Cruciare
DeathRowKitty
afatchic
imaginality

The TMJ flip makes me reverse my position on Cruciare. I can't shake that his last post of day one was a desperate scum plea to save his buddy. DRK has done nothing but tunnel, he needs to start looking at the game with a broader view. His request of a Pops quick lynch is scummy. afatchic and imaginality are on the same plane here really. I don't remember afatchic doing much scum hunting, certainly not today at least. And I want to see imaginality's case on Cruciare

I will have to do a little bit of reading back to refresh my memory of what happened as well. That will probably have to wait until tomorrow for me to find the time.

My promised award-winning case on DRK will have to disappear into back drawer of my mind for a while, but seriously, upon TMJ's flip, DRK's D1 play became textbook scum.

Why does it have to disappear?

[Vi]

@Vi, why are you so interested in the setup design?

I believe all of you are wrong. 3 Mafia and a Survivor means that two mislynches theoretically end the game; I would consider it worse than 8-3-SK (a setup that has burned people because Town can lynch correctly each Day after Day 1 and still lose, but at least there's a possibility of crosskills). To my knowledge 9-2-Survivor is considered balanced.

But doesn't 2 mafia and a survivor means two correct lynches and the town wins? That doesn't seem incredibility balanced to me either.

10-2 Mountainous is considered balanced, never mind that scum pretty much always win Vanilla-only games. Basically, it's fine.

I threw that question into the survey to see who would respond with OMG UR SETUP SPECULATING or something like that.

Am I scum, Sotty?

[Sotty7]

I think you are, but your last few posts feel more protown to me.

Good point about Mountainous.

[jammer]

A survivor doesn't know the amount of mafia. Doubtful he would claim with a certain amount of players left to yell "let vote NL!". I mean, what would you do with a claim like that at any time?

I would not count a survivor town, but not scum as well. A survivor might be NK'd at some point, or just (accidentally) help to get scum lynched. A survivor is neutral, not much help for town or mafia much.

Also Porkens, taking third parties as scum, in MtG you mislynched once, and that lynch made town lose.

And what do we learn from this? We might have more or less scum players. Speculating about the ammount is not going to help finding scum.

More clear said.

OMG UR SETUP SPECULATING

[sigma]

This is going to sound very hypocritical of me, but my top suspects in general are people on the pops wagon.

I agree with your choice of top suspects. Have you had a chance to look at the other folks on the pops wagon in detail? I'd specifically like to hear your thoughts on imaginality and Cruciare. Extra credit for some thoughts on afatchic.

I would be happy with a lynch of afatchic, DRK, or imaginality at this point. If afatchic picks up his prod with another "buying time" type post, I think he needs to go first.

[Porkens]

I would be happy with a lynch of afatchic, DRK, or imaginality at this point. If afatchic picks up his prod with another "buying time" type post, I think he needs to go first.

Fair warning?

[sigma]

Don't understand your implication. Are you saying I'm coaching afatchic?

[Vi]

I'm not really in favor of an afatchic lynch so much as an afatchic replacement.

Speculating about the ammount is not going to help finding scum.

It could, actually. But we'll leave that as a disagreement.
More doing things other than riding the easy wagon and less complaining about easy-to-complain-about things please.

[DeathRowKitty]

If the two above posters would respond to my question.

The question of how many scum? I would have said 3+survivor, though admittedly, I didn't take the time to plot out the possible course of such a game. Personally, I think this discussion should wait a day when we know more about the setup, since having one mafia+survivor dead puts us in no sort of immediate danger of having the setup come crashing down on us.

Vote: DeathRowKitty for defending TMJ too much.

I object to your use of the word "defending." I was asked about TMJ and I said I thought he was unreadable or a noob or neutral or something to that effect.

Ignoring TMJ + inconsistency between 'hammer now' stance before Pops's claim and 'lynching claimed PR is bad' stance after Pops's claim + more inconsistency with behaviour near deadline = Scumdar Resonant Frequency Detected?

My stance wasn't inconsistent. It only appears that way to someone incapable of reading minds.

I thought pops was scum and TMJ wasn't. To me, the TMJ case was a distraction that would prevent a scum lynch and discussion about pops/TMJ wasn't getting us far enough to justify the perceived risk. Then pops claimed doctor. My first instinct when someone claims a townie PR and especially on Day 1 is to leave the person alone. Seriously though, his posts after his claim were not posts that a townie would make and especially not a doctor. I thought he had to be scum, so I voted him, especially in the absense of (in my mind) other strong suspects. I was half-right on pops. His behavior post-claim was not townie-behavior. It just wasn't mafia behavior.

I agree with your choice of top suspects. Have you had a chance to look at the other folks on the pops wagon in detail? I'd specifically like to hear your thoughts on imaginality and Cruciare. Extra credit for some thoughts on afatchic.

Let me preface this with a scummy disclaimer: I have a really bad read on this game. I haven't had a chance to look at the wagon in detail as I've been busy the past few days/week and will be busy this week. Personally I've found no solid evidence to think Cruciare is scum, aside from things I've also been guilty of. I really need to re-read imaginality (actually I plan on re-reading the entire game when I get a good chance (probably won't be until Friday)), since to me, he's the most suspicious player on the pops wagon. As for afatchic...I can't say I like his lurking, but seeing as he didn't post in any of his games the two days before deadline, I can't really fault him for that. I suppose his lurking means a slight scum read on him, but nothing solid enough for a lynch.

[sigma]

I'm not really in favor of an afatchic lynch so much as an afatchic replacement.

You may get your wish. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes an appearance before that happens, though.

DRK, I'll be looking forward to that re-read.

@jammer: I agree with vi:

More doing things other than riding the easy wagon

Can we get some thoughts from you on DRK, imaginality, and Cruciare? seeing as how there's a good chance we'll be lynching one of those three today.

[RedCoyote]

afatchic has requested a replacement.

[imaginality]

Back now. More tonight.

[RedCoyote]

Ojanen has replaced afatchic. Thanks, Ojanen!

[Cruciare]

Hmm I see, the survivor claims and votes no lynch, makes some sense I guess.

Why does it have to disappear?

Mainly because I've found that I just don't have the effort to write a wall of critical analysis. I've already mentioned the key points in one post or another, and the details will surface in bits should the need for me to regurgitate them arise. Since you seem very eager about this case of mine on DRK however, I'll comply to an extent and take this little by little. Firstly, I'd like to clarify if you can see a hint of logic in my words when I claim that DRK's D1 behaviour matches scum almost perfectly. I mean look at his D1 play from the perspective that you have a hypothetical guilty investigation result on him, and tell me how much sense it makes to you. (By the way, this is how my line of thinking generally goes after D1: look at people's earlier play from the perspective that they are 100% scum and evaluate which ones make the most sense.)

My stance wasn't inconsistent. It only appears that way to someone incapable of reading minds.

DRK, did you not consider the possibility that Pops/Y.C. was a town power role, or at least might've claimed a town power role when you took your 'lynch him now' stance on D1?

Can we get some thoughts from you on DRK, imaginality, and

Cruciare

afatchic

? seeing as how there's a good chance we'll be lynching one of those three today.

*Whistles*

Anyway, as much as my behaviour today so far suggests that I'm tunnelling on DRK, Afatchic is my second top suspect so I'm very eager to hear from his hopefully-more-useful replacement. Imaginality I'm not so sure about. I initially thought Vi's case on him was a stretch, but the more I look at his D1 posts, the scummier they become (but that could be my paranoia talking). DRK's D2 posts have sat somewhat better with my scumdar, so I may review my stance on DRK (and reread everyone's D1 posts once again) if Afatchic's replacement or Imaginality say some funny things today.

@Imaginality: What do you think of Afatchic?

[Col.Cathart]

Actually, can someone do recap of Cruciare's scummy actions? Because, I see that many people are listing him at the top of the suspect list, but except from voting for Pops on D1, I don't see anything that guilty in his actions...

[Porkens]

Many people? Like who?

[Col.Cathart]

Ok, I exaggerated... Not really top suspect, but I can see that Imaginality and Sotty suspects him, while others are giving questions like 'What do you think about Cruciare?', which is obvious hint, he's suspicious to them as well, because what's the point of asking about someone who looks pro-town?

[Col.Cathart]

EBWOP: [quote]Ok, I exaggerated... Not really top suspect, but I can see that Imaginality and Sotty

are suspecting

him, while others are giving questions like 'What do you think about Cruciare?', which is obvious hint, he's suspicious to them as well, because what's the point of asking about someone who looks pro-town?

[Ojanen]

Hi.
I'm reading right now (first 3 pages were hilarious). It may take me until tomorrow to finish and I'll provide content as soon as I'm done, but I'd like some clarifications to help me form reads in the meantime.
@sigma: was your vote for jammer in post 28 random?
@Vi: please describe what happened between you and wiploc in N779.

[Vi]

@Vi: please describe what happened between you and wiploc in N779.

Chainys and RedCoyote have still not been heard from. We could pressure them to talk by putting three votes on each. (This would have the added benefit of identifying the scum who put the third votes on them.)

From a previous game, I know RedCoyote doesn't post on weekends.
That and your idea is retarded at best and scummy at worst.
Unvote: jayfin3
Vote: wiploc (L-2)
Oh look, a third vote on someone.

From my mercifully short career as an IC, page 1. wiploc decided to take that middle sentence personally and start repeating "Vi's either a jerk, or scum". Fortunately the possibility of me being both didn't occur to him, and plenty of people were there to reassure him that yes, I actually am a jerk on occasion. (I was Town; wiploc was also Town.)
Following this for the next 20 pages or so he proceeded to lurk, tunnel on me for a while, and generally do weird things that didn't change my read on him.

To answer your next question, the qualitative difference between wiploc and Y.C. was that wiploc's general hate against me was entirely defensive. The Y.C. situation came from an attack he made on me.

[sigma]

@sigma: was your vote for jammer in post 28 random?

Yes.

[Ojanen]

@jammer:

Just playing around a little with the votes. Testing something out a little.

Please explain properly what you were testing, and what was the result.

[Sotty7]

Why does it have to disappear?

Mainly because I've found that I just don't have the effort to write a wall of critical analysis. I've already mentioned the key points in one post or another, and the details will surface in bits should the need for me to regurgitate them arise. Since you seem very eager about this case of mine on DRK however, I'll comply to an extent and take this little by little. Firstly, I'd like to clarify if you can see a hint of logic in my words when I claim that DRK's D1 behaviour matches scum almost perfectly. I mean look at his D1 play from the perspective that you have a hypothetical guilty investigation result on him, and tell me how much sense it makes to you. (By the way, this is how my line of thinking generally goes after D1: look at people's earlier play from the perspective that they are 100% scum and evaluate which ones make the most sense.)

I am very eager to hear your case on DRK. I am finding it extremely telling that you are now backing away from presenting one simply by saying “it's already out there.” You have promised this case several times and now you have said it has to disappear. It's one thing to be busy, it's quite another to disappear a case on someone you strongly believe to be scum.

Now you want me to look at day one as if I know DRK is scum... Isn't that a little backwards? Plus didn't you say that DRK opinions mirrored a lot of your own on day one? Does that mean your play is also scummy by your own admission?

Anyway, as much as my behaviour today so far suggests that I'm tunnelling on DRK, Afatchic is my second top suspect so I'm very eager to hear from his hopefully-more-useful replacement. Imaginality I'm not so sure about. I initially thought Vi's case on him was a stretch, but the more I look at his D1 posts, the scummier they become (but that could be my paranoia talking). DRK's D2 posts have sat somewhat better with my scumdar, so I may review my stance on DRK (and reread everyone's D1 posts once again) if Afatchic's replacement or Imaginality say some funny things today.

So if we're lynching off the TMJ wagon today you simply are ready to vote for anyone that isn't you? Good to know.

Actually, can someone do recap of Cruciare's scummy actions? Because, I see that many people are listing him at the top of the suspect list, but except from voting for Pops on D1, I don't see anything that guilty in his actions...

Hello me from yesterday.

It's his words more than his actions for me. The “DRK is scum guys!” but not making a case is a glaring one. He has jumped up to my number two suspect today.

[Vi]

I expect that both Cruciare and DeathRowKitty are Town tbh.