Mini 839 -- Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[Porkens]

VI: DRK and Sotty7 crossvote eachother on page 1, claim to have never played together before, and then busily ignore eachother for the rest of the game.

I dunno maybe it's nothin

[Vi]

VI: DRK and Sotty7 crossvote eachother on page 1, claim to have never played together before, and then busily ignore eachother for the rest of the game.

I dunno maybe it's nothin

YO, PORKENS, I'M REALLY HAPPY FOR YOU, I'M GONNA LET YOU FINISH, BUT oh wait you're already finished

So, seriously, why are you totally underperforming in this game?

VI

Daykill: Porkens

[Porkens]

VI: DRK and Sotty7 crossvote eachother on page 1, claim to have never played together before, and then busily ignore eachother for the rest of the game.

I dunno maybe it's nothin

YO, PORKENS, I'M REALLY HAPPY FOR YOU, I'M GONNA LET YOU FINISH, BUT oh wait you're already finished

So, seriously, why are you totally underperforming in this game?

VI

Daykill: Porkens

Hah, you

wish

[Vi]

'Nice to see I'm loved by everyone today.

There's really nowhere I can go at this point as far as pressing my suspicions without resorting to *dramatic chords* desperate measures.
Which I fully plan to do, but I'm still deciding on the hows and the whens.

[Porkens]

I am seriously though, what do you think of the DRK and SOTTY (non)connection?

[DeathRowKitty]

I am seriously though, what do you think of the DRK and SOTTY (non)connection?

My random vote on JD was purely OMGUS and he didn't post enough content afterwards for me to comment on. There's nothing more to it on my end, except perhaps some tunneling.

[Sotty7]

It's just that, a non connection. But I have noticed that DRK has ignored the couple of questions I tossed his way in the last page.

I agree that (almost) everyone on TMJ's wagon should be practically confirmed for the moment. I'm not sure anyone would have bussed near the end of the wagon (we can worry about that later on if necessary), but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was bussing early on when pops seemed the likely lynch.

Why do you think it's more likely to be this way round?

Who is your top suspect now? Why?

[sigma]

A note of warning: I agree that we should be looking first at the set of players who were trying to lynch pops (imaginaity, DRK, Cruciare, Vi). However, I disagree with the players who have said scum are unlikely to be on TMJ's wagon. My guess is that there's one scum on TMJ's wagon. Keep that in mind on later days.

The best place to look today for a lynch, however, is the pops wagon. and afatchic. Future days may not be that way.

Cruciare's point about DRK not mentioning TMJ until page 6 is very interesting, and resonates with me.

Also, looking at imaginality's iso... He voted for TMJ for active lurking in iso 2, and then switched to an L-1 vote for pops in iso 3. I don't think I've seen this mentioned yet, and honestly, that looks pretty suspicious to me.

[Vi]

I am seriously though, what do you think of the DRK and SOTTY (non)connection?

I dunno maybe

it's nothin

sigma, how many scum do you believe are left in this game?

[sigma]

3 scum and a third-party is pretty standard for mini normal, right? And two of those are dead, so we're almost certainly looking at 2 scum, probably one on the TMJ wagon and one on the pops wagon IMO. That'd be my guess.

[Vi]

*turns to broader audience* Is everyone in agreement with that?

[Sotty7]

There is no evidence of another 3rd party right now (AKA an SK), so I think 2 scum. Pops was the survivor so doesn't that count as a 3rd party death Sigma?

[DeathRowKitty]

But I have noticed that DRK has ignored the couple of questions I tossed his way in the last page.

Somehow I missed those.

1. Given that TMJ had a potentially powerful scum role, I don't think his buddies would put a late vote on him to bring him close to lynch with the town split the way it was. I can see one of his buddies voting him early when he had fewer votes and pops was the most likely lynch in order to earn some townie points.
2. This is going to sound very hypocritical of me, but my top suspects in general are people on the pops wagon. I agree that at least one of us almost has to be scum. Right now, I'm guessing imaginality because I haven't found the others particularly scummy.

[Porkens]

This is the first time you've mentioned imaginality the entire game. Please tell us what he's done that you find scummy.

[DeathRowKitty]

Very little, which is why I didn't vote. I thought Vi's case on him wasn't great. The scummiest thing is what sigma pointed out about his vote change from post 2 to post 3, but I don't think it's worth of a vote, especially since I was suggesting a quicklynch Day 1.

[Vi]

If the two above posters would respond to my question.

Also throwing imaginality's selective participation out there - only responding to direct questions and whatever would get pops lynched.

[sigma]

There is no evidence of another 3rd party right now (AKA an SK), so I think 2 scum. Pops was the survivor so doesn't that count as a 3rd party death Sigma?

Right. We're likely to have started with 3 scum and a 3rd party, two are dead (a scum and the 3rd party), ergo 2 scum and no 3rd party left over. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

[Porkens]

about the number of scum left?

yeah, probably 2 more mafia or one more mafia and an sk.

but knowing the people who helped design it, I wouldn't rule out 2 scum groups, cult, or whatever.

[Col.Cathart]

VI: DRK and Sotty7 crossvote eachother on page 1, claim to have never played together before, and then busily ignore eachother for the rest of the game.

I dunno maybe it's nothin

Ho hum... Personally I expected something a bit more spectacular, but this is interesting as well. Though this more of a subject for later days, when either Sotty or DRK will flip.

Also, yeah I believe that we have 2 scum left, and nothing more.

[jammer]

@Vi, why are you so interested in the setup design?

[Vi]

@Vi, why are you so interested in the setup design?

I believe all of you are wrong. 3 Mafia and a Survivor means that two mislynches theoretically end the game; I would consider it worse than 8-3-SK (a setup that has burned people because Town can lynch correctly each Day after Day 1 and still lose, but at least there's a possibility of crosskills). To my knowledge 9-2-Survivor is considered balanced.

In the event that there is one scum remaining, associative tells among the living are useless and more importantly I can proceed with the aforementioned desperate measures. In the event that I'm wrong, Bad Things can potentially happen by assuming otherwise.

If nothing else it gets people to talk and not lurk, not that you're doing a very good job of that anyway.

At this point I don't know what to do and am generally frustrated considering how deadline crept up yesterday and since the

mod

doesn't like telling us in his vote counts when the deadline is it'll probably happen again today.

Sorry, I did forget to put it into the last votecount. For the future reference of all players, according to the rules of the game, days are two weeks long and may be extended once if a majority of the players wish for it or at my disgression (as was the case during D1).

(September 30. Nine and a half days.)

[Porkens]

Ok. What Vi just said makes sense. I hate to think that the setup would be two misslynches to a town loss. However, I don't want to put blinders on to other possibilities.

So, operating on the assumption of two scum only, which I'm willing to do today, I think it's logical to assume that the other mafia wasn't on the lynching wagon. Again, however, not putting total blinders on to the idea of a POWERPLAY by the other scum (which in this case I would peg as Vi). For now, however, that leaves us with the idea that the scum is somewhere in this list:

1. Cruciare
2. imaginality
3. DeathRowKitty
4. afatchic

I am actually fantastically happy with this list.

Cruciare

A really really strange unvote in his #7. He says in no uncertain terms that he wants the guy lynched, but takes his vote off. Maybe leaving things open for discussion, but more likely setting up distance from a misslynch. However, his asking for a deadline extention, combined with his "goon" status makes me think he's town. Meta, I know - can't shake it.

S---

imaginality

My instinct is that he was on the TMJ wagon way too quickly to have been bussing. That might have been brilliant play though. He never did seemed to reticent to lynch the claimed doc.

SS--

DeathRowKitty

Says he doesn't endore lynching a claimed doctor day 1, even if he looks scummy. Very next post says that pops is the best lynch at the moment (his 31 and 32). Has a strange way of defending TMJ (see his 18, 21). Shrugs off all the scummy behavior. Says "leaning town, nothing but neutral."

SSSS

afatchic

He's made a lot of excuses about why he wasn't on the lynching wagon. The ammount seems a bit dissporportionate to the ammount of pressure he recieved. If he didn't think the case was legitimate, he probably would not have fought against it so verbally. BTW: did I miss the explanation of "WIWABIFWMVALBETSMADPITTMBC. IRCUWPOMOBJF,LWHIDSF. STSLANTTM."?

SSS-

Unvote

Vote: DeathRowKitty

for defending TMJ too much.




My paranoia says it's Vi.

Daykill: Vi

[RedCoyote]

Prodding Cruciare and afatchic

[RedCoyote]

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---

Vote Count 2.2

• DeathRowKitty

  (Cruciare - Col.Cathart - Porkens)
  
  
  afatchic
  (sigma - jammer)
  
  
  Vi
  (Sotty7)
  
  
  imaginality
  (Vi)
  
  
  Cruciare
  (imaginality)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (

  Porkens

  - DeathRowKitty - afatchic)

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.
The current deadline is

September 30th

.

[Cruciare]

Forgive me guys, my computer was shredded apart by a horde of tigers and I'm in the process of gluing the pieces back together. But seriously, some unexpected school work has come up, and I may not be able to participate fully until the 25th or so. Vi, would you like to explain how 3 mafia + survivor means that two mislynches end the game? By my calculations, assuming the survivor isn't nightkilled or lynched (in other words, assuming worst case scenario):

3 8 1 Start
3 7 1 Mislynch #1
3 6 1 Nightkill
3 5 1 Mislynch #2
3 4 1 Nightkill
2 4 1 Scumlynch #1
2 3 1 Nightkill
1 4 1 Scumlynch #2
1 3 1 Nightkill
0 3 1 Scumlynch #3 - Town (and Survivor) Win

... the town can mislynch twice, lynch right three times and still win. Did I make a mistake somewhere? TMJ's comment about the remaining "player" and Vi's comment about it actually made me look through TMJ's past posts, and surprisingly, I could not find a single instance of plural usage. So the possibility of three scum isn't ruled out with me. Anyway, I agree with most of Porkens's 396, except I think that even with three scum, neither of TMJ's scumbuddies were on his wagon. I am open to convincing of otherwise, of course. My promised award-winning case on DRK will have to disappear into back drawer of my mind for a while, but seriously, upon TMJ's flip, DRK's D1 play became textbook scum. Just look at it (hey, that's what I did). Ignoring TMJ + inconsistency between 'hammer now' stance before Pops's claim and 'lynching claimed PR is bad' stance after Pops's claim + more inconsistency with behaviour near deadline = Scumdar Resonant Frequency Detected?

@DRK: What do you think of Afatchic?