Mini 839 -- Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[popsofctown]

RC, can i make extended bah posts? it's not like i have teammates.
bah bah

Okay, wiseguy, how'd you like a modkill to go with your death? XD

[Porkens]

Quotes[/i]

Although Pops didn't flip doc, the scum killed him

because

he claimed doc. Yesterday Vi encouraged a voter on the claimed doc wagon while keeping her vote off.

This is a

non sequitur

- the first sentence does not lead to the second; it actually weakens it. The second sentence is what you were saying yesterday, without the important part--

I don't really see the non sequitur. "Pops was killed for his doc claim. Vi wanted to lynch a claimed doc." Am I missing something?

Check my other games... i didn't post in any during that time, so i wasn't intentionally skipping this one.

Failing to post in any games during that time

!=

proof of intention

either way

.

As I mentioned above, I'm inclined to believe that there are no scum on TMJ's wagon.

Given how close the vote counts were at the end of day 1, and the fact that the night kill suggests the mafia believed pops' doc claim, I think that the majority of the scum must have been on the pops wagon. Or else they could have swung the lynch away from TMJ.

You guys agree here, interessante...

gen chat

Cruc's crusade against the TMJ lynch could have been scum trying to save scum. However, I think bussing would have been more likely there. I guess it's null to slightly scummy for me at the moment.

Vi is coming across a little "off" to me. I'll take another look later on at that.

Questions:

Vi:

Why do you think you sound "off" to me?

Sotty:

What do you think of DRK?

DRK:

What do you think of Sotty?

[Sotty7]

Also TMJ quickly followed Vi with a vote on Y.C at the start of the game here. TMJ strikes me as the kind of scum that would make that kind of early newb mistake.

What kind of early newb mistake? (Specifically, does it have to be one that necessarily includes me as scum?)

Obvious following of the partner.

Although Pops didn't flip doc, the scum killed him

because

he claimed doc.

Did they?
But doesn't that seem odd to you?

Yes.
No.

Why do you think he was killed then if it wasn't because he claimed doc?

On a related note,

Although Pops didn't flip doc, the scum killed him

because

he claimed doc. Yesterday Vi encouraged a voter on the claimed doc wagon while keeping her vote off.

This is a

non sequitur

- the first sentence does not lead to the second; it actually weakens it. The second sentence is what you were saying yesterday, without the important part--

Basically, I think you believed the claim

while at the same time encouraged another player to keep their vote on Pops.

I'm sure this would have much more of a punch if my suspicions about the claim were not well-founded (and well-documented in 294).

It doesn't weaken anything. The scum had no idea that Pops would be the survivor, all they knew is that he wasn't a part of them. They killed him because of the docs ability to block their kills. I think if Pops had claimed something else the scum might have kept him alive for a WIFOM lynch. They didn't because they didn't want to risk having any future kills blocked. This is easily the most logical assessment of the kill as far as I am concerned.

I still think you believed the claim and worded your belief in away that allowed you easy passage back onto the Pops wagon if the rest of the town still wanted to lynch him.

While I'm here I'll answer two of my own questions (previously asked to Cruciare).

Counterquestion. What would you expect scum to do when confronted with Townpops' claim?
To contrast, what would you expect Town to do when confronted with ?pops' claim?

1) Get the heck off the wagon.
2) Question the claim.

Fair enough. But right after he claimed, you didn't question it. That came later, after others had shown they were still willing to lynch Pops.

I think it's significant that midway through the day Cruciare tried to steer the lynch choice towards pops vs jammer rather than pops vs TMJ. (DRK is also somewhat guilty of that.) Later on, he softened his stance on pops to being based "more gut than logic" when pops looked likely to be lynched, while keeping his vote on pops. That seems like an attempt to position himself better for when pops flipped town. Also, several times he ducked giving his opinion on something or gave vagueish answers.

Can you show your working?

Really want to hear from Cruciare and for him to explain why he thought yesterdays TMJ lynch would offer little in the ways of information. I also want his opinion on the two wagons now that TMJ did flip scum.

TMJ was like a near-complete shot in the dark. You're welcome to convince yourself that I'm wrong on this, but that's what I firmly believed D1. Had we lynched Pops, I believed that regardless of whether he came up scum or doctor (I didn't consider third-party to be honest) we would've learnt a lot from it either way. TMJ's lynch would only prove useful if he flipped scum, which fortunately he did. Had TMJ flipped anything other than scum, it would've told us virtually nothing. A TMJ town/third-party flip would also have given the scum a chance to WIFOM with not killing Pops. Like I said, the fact that TMJ actually did flip scum was a lucky shot in the dark in my opinion.

This still doesn't work for me. Yesterday you believed that Pops was scum and yet others were jumping onto a different wagon. If you truly believed Pops to be scum, wouldn't the competing wagon and those on it show you something? Lets pretend for a minute that Pops was scum and TMJ was town. After the TMJ flip are you really trying to tell me you would have had nothing to go on as far as Pops and his scum buddies?

As for the two wagons, if you're talking about the TMJ and Pops wagons yesterday, my opinion now is that there is not likely to be any scum on TMJ's wagon. I'll explain this further on in this post.

I agree somewhat with statement. I think because of TMJ's powerful role bussing is less likely. I don't want to say that there was no scum on the wagon, but I don't think there was many.

Now I want to Vote: DeathRowKitty. I know I said yesterday that he was one of the people I was not suspicious of at all (because a lot of his opinions mirrored mine), but with TMJ's scum flip, I now think otherwise. I'll make a better case on this (with all the specifics and all that - there are lots) when I'm less tired, but the general idea is that if you look at his play from the perspective that he is definitely scum, it makes perfect sense. And I mean PERFECT sense. For now, I'll just leave you with the fact that DRK's very first mention of TMJ was at the bottom of page 6, a full five days or 86 posts after initial suspicion on TMJ first came to light.

Interesting, I want to see the full case as soon as you can get round to it. my opinion on DRK is that he was tunneled and in my experience that happens more as town than as scum because scum need to keep their options open a little more. I want to hear his opinions on all this now the day has started. Right now I am leaning town because of the tunneling. But the appeal for a quick hammer on Pops sticks in my nose.

Porkens your question is answered up there. I had honestly forgot about DRK at the start of the day, that isn't a good thing. I want to hear what he has to say.

[jammer]

So with that said, i have no reason to believe he is not a doc. So yeah, i am playing with some certainty that he is the doc. I think it would be an absolute terrible play to lynch a claimed PR today.

I'm gonna reread and comment on a few other things i wanted to comment on last night, but was too tired to do so.

Pops- Can you please make a nice detailed post about each player and your thoughts on them, as well as who you would like to see lynched in the upcoming days and why... Consider this like your last will and testament since a few people have already said they will hammer you at deadline.

Ok, afatchic. You state you're not supporting pops wagon. Why didn't you do anything to stop a pops lynch?
You just leaned back, "lynching pops is bad!", "pops make your testomony". To me it seemed you did not really mind the wagon on the the player you looked at "with some certainty that he is the doc".

You took a stand on pops, but did't do anything with it.

I'm surprised to see that DRK isn't voting anyone, especially after that last post.

I'll be around another hour or two and I figured I'd wait to vote to see if anyone tried to make too strong a push for either candidate without strong reason (trying to save a scumbuddy). I would've voted earlier if I'd realized TMJ had 4 votes.

Vote: pops

This seem pretty off, now TMJ flipped scum, and kitty was pushing hard on pops a few posts before it.

@imaginality, any particulair reason TMJ lost your attention yesterday?


Let me see.

Vote: afatchic

~Also, I completely disagree with tunneling being something town does more likely then scum.

[Sotty7]

It's just my experience. I don't think it makes him obvtown by any means.

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, first-off, I was wrong. I was wrong on TMJ and half-wrong on pops. I actually considered the possibility of YC being jester at one point, but never survivor.

I agree that (almost) everyone on TMJ's wagon should be practically confirmed for the moment. I'm not sure anyone would have bussed near the end of the wagon (we can worry about that later on if necessary), but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was bussing early on when pops seemed the likely lynch.

DRK: What do you think of Sotty?

From what I've seen, I'd say town. She falls under the category of "people who chose TMJ over pops when things could have gone either way" and I haven't had a problem with any of her posts.

@CC
Your vote for me looks very opportunistic coming immediately after Cruciare's vote, especially since your post mostly rehashed and explained Cruciare's post. Your main contribution to the case was this:

When Pops claimed doc, he jumped off the wagon, and went in Jammer's direction, as he looked like a fine place for his accusation, since 4 other people already said they are suspicious of him

Looking back at my earlier posts, you'll find that my posts are directed mainly at YC with a couple of posts directed at jammer. Perhaps this was because I was suspicious of jammer? (hint: that's why).

[Vi]

I don't really see the non sequitur. "Pops was killed for his doc claim. Vi wanted to lynch a claimed doc." Am I missing something?

The conclusion to this would be "Vi-scum thought pops was a doc"... Oh now I get it.

Vi: Why do you think you sound "off" to me?

After a vague post like 351, I don't know - why not make your own case on me?
I've already noted a discrepancy in your play ITT and your Town meta (meta? That's cheating! No wai!), so I'm not inclined to trust your good word atm.

------

Obvious following of the partner.

I've never seen this happen with the first and second votes on a wagon.

Why do you think he was killed then if it wasn't because he claimed doc?

Oh, I believe that he was killed because he claimed Doctor. But what's strange is that the scum didn't have any better targets, considering pops would have been just as useless and suspicious today and pops' protection was probably unlikely to land in the same place as the night-kill. (To answer the objection about a future protection on a Cop, as with a Framer a Cop is expected in this setup: Personally I'd take a shot at the Cop now; it's the difference between preventing follow-the-Cop starting Day 3 and preventing follow-the-Cop in the first place.)
My change in opinion on you began when I realized that as the Doctor I would have protected you, and pops probably would not have done so (as I would have expected him to protect either himself or me or someone chosen by the dice tags), therefore I expected you to be NKd. Likewise there are a few people that I'm reading nicely pro-Town right now that would also have been acceptable targets.

I think because of TMJ's powerful role bussing is less likely.

How powerful was it?

[afatchic]

@afatchic:

You're right -- that's a good point. You were definitely against lynching pops in some of your earlier posts. However, when the discussion was centering on whether TMJ or pops should be lynched at the end of the day, you were silent. Moreover, it's not like you've exactly been giving us a lot of information with your posts in general. If you'd been fairly active earlier in the day, the deadline-lurking might have been excusable.

If i had been active early in the day, and then went MIA when it actually mattered, that would be extremely scummy, IMO. However, i don't see how the fact that i played the exact same way, all of a sudden looks bad in the last two to three pages, when it didn't look bad the first 10.

Let me ask you a question... If someone had been lynched unanimously and i wouldn't have been here, would i still look scummy? It appears that you are blaming me for not posting during the last couple RL days, when the wagon was shifting. However, the last i saw it seemed pretty clear Pops would be lynched as he was about L-1 and a couple people had threatened to hammer. Had i actually read the part where the wagon shifted, then I'm sure i would have actually had more to say. But the last part i read it seemed pretty certain Pops would be lynched, and so i did the most productive thing i thought to do and asked him to make one decent post about all his thoughts.

I was not about to fight with 6 other people about voting Pops. I have done that in games before, and it ended in a bunch of townies fighting back in forth and allowed the scum to sit in the background and coast to an easy win. I voiced my opinions about it, but i wasn't about to attack everyone on the wagon.

Anyways, second half of the georgia tech vs miami game is on (GO CANES!) so i am getting back to that.

[sigma]

@afatchic:

Let me ask you a question... If someone had been lynched unanimously and i wouldn't have been here, would i still look scummy?

Probably, you'd look less scummy.

I was not about to fight with 6 other people about voting Pops.

Even given that you said in your iso 9 that "it would be an absolute terrible play to lynch a claimed PR?" Even then, you're not willing to fight about it?

I have done that in games before, and it ended in a bunch of townies fighting back in forth and allowed the scum to sit in the background and coast to an easy win.

That's exactly why I will keep voting you if you stay in the background. I'm open to moving my vote, but I need to see some pro-town action from you before I do that.

---

vi's acting very strange about the pops NK.

But what's strange is that the scum didn't have any better targets, considering pops would have been just as useless and suspicious today and pops' protection was probably unlikely to land in the same place as the night-kill. (To answer the objection about a future protection on a Cop, as with a Framer a Cop is expected in this setup: Personally I'd take a shot at the Cop now; it's the difference between preventing follow-the-Cop starting Day 3 and preventing follow-the-Cop in the first place.)
My change in opinion on you began when I realized that as the Doctor I would have protected you, and pops probably would not have done so (as I would have expected him to protect either himself or me or someone chosen by the dice tags), therefore I expected you to be NKd. Likewise there are a few people that I'm reading nicely pro-Town right now that would also have been acceptable targets.

Does this have a point? I don't understand why we're speculating on the scum's motives so much -- it seems kind of pointless and distracting.

[Col.Cathart]

@CC
Your vote for me looks very opportunistic coming immediately after Cruciare's vote, especially since your post mostly rehashed and explained Cruciare's post. Your main contribution to the case was this:

When Pops claimed doc, he jumped off the wagon, and went in Jammer's direction, as he looked like a fine place for his accusation, since 4 other people already said they are suspicious of him

Looking back at my earlier posts, you'll find that my posts are directed mainly at YC with a couple of posts directed at jammer. Perhaps this was because I was suspicious of jammer? (hint: that's why).

Looks like you forgot, that I am the original creator of case on you, so now calling me for an 'opportunistic vote' is rather silly here. Especially when Cruciare said actually completely nothing except from 'his actions makes sense as a scum'. I saw it already on D1, night flips convinced me even more, and the fact that Crucaire said something similar before me means absolutely nothing, especially considering, that he didn't really make any case on you for now.

And about Jammer, I was going to ask you a question, why were you insisting on NOT looking at Jammer for alternative discussion in this case, but several people (including me) actually asked you about this on D1, and you answered in not satisfying (at least to me) way at all, so I'm not gonna repeat that again. Unless you have something more to say about it, that is...

[DeathRowKitty]

Looks like you forgot, that I am the original creator of case on you

Yes I did.

And about Jammer, I was going to ask you a question, why were you insisting on NOT looking at Jammer for alternative discussion in this case, but several people (including me) actually asked you about this on D1, and you answered in not satisfying (at least to me) way at all, so I'm not gonna repeat that again. Unless you have something more to say about it, that is...

The case on him wouldn't have been strong enough. I was waiting for the flip of pops, Vi, or possibly Porkens. Seeing as pops didn't flip mafia and that jammer was on the TMJ wagon, I no longer find jammer scummy.

[Vi]

vi's acting very strange about the pops NK.

But what's strange is that the scum didn't have any better targets, considering pops would have been just as useless and suspicious today and pops' protection was probably unlikely to land in the same place as the night-kill. (To answer the objection about a future protection on a Cop, as with a Framer a Cop is expected in this setup: Personally I'd take a shot at the Cop now; it's the difference between preventing follow-the-Cop starting Day 3 and preventing follow-the-Cop in the first place.)

My change in opinion on you

[Sotty7]

began

when I realized that as the Doctor I would have protected you, and pops probably would not have done so (as I would have expected him to protect either himself or me or someone chosen by the dice tags), therefore I expected you to be NKd. Likewise there are a few people that I'm reading nicely pro-Town right now that would also have been acceptable targets.

Does this have a point? I don't understand why we're speculating on the scum's motives so much -- it seems kind of pointless and distracting.

At its simplest, the bolded would be the point.

As far as pointless and distracting, I would like to quickly illustrate what happened at the end of a game I was in recently.

ScumVi - Well, the Godfather just got lynched so I'll kill the Cop-confirmed innocent B&B (because, well, Cop-confirmed) and get Troll to lynch Elmo-obvscum tomorrow like he said he would for a while now.
--kill--
ScumVi - Okay, that means that Elmo's the last scum. B&B was totally killed because he was Cop-confirmed.
TrollTown - Elmo wouldn't have made that kill because it leaves him in LyLo with two people who have wanted him lynched for Days, while B&B wouldn't have ever voted him.
ScumVi - o.o;;

I believe this is a similar situation. pops was an attractive kill on paper, but hardly ideal from the perspective of someone who isn't scum.

[Sotty7]

I agree that (almost) everyone on TMJ's wagon should be practically confirmed for the moment. I'm not sure anyone would have bussed near the end of the wagon (we can worry about that later on if necessary), but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was bussing early on when pops seemed the likely lynch.

Why do you think it's more likely to be this way round?

Who is your top suspect now? Why?

---

Obvious following of the partner.

I've never seen this happen with the first and second votes on a wagon.

Despite what TMJ may have said to the contrary, his play suggests to me that he would have no trouble just following his scum buddy. I realize this is a bit of a leap, but that's what I think.

Oh, I believe that he was killed because he claimed Doctor. But what's strange is that the scum didn't have any better targets, considering pops would have been just as useless and suspicious today and pops' protection was probably unlikely to land in the same place as the night-kill. (To answer the objection about a future protection on a Cop, as with a Framer a Cop is expected in this setup: Personally I'd take a shot at the Cop now; it's the difference between preventing follow-the-Cop starting Day 3 and preventing follow-the-Cop in the first place.)

There were plenty of better (READ: more pro town) targets over Pops, but Pops claimed doc. So unless the scum had a roleblocker, I was fully expecting him to die over night. The last thing scum want, especially after losing one of their members, is to have a night kill blocked. So they kill the claim doc to stop that from happening

Even

if

the scum had a roleblocker, there is a big case for killing Pops. With how him v TMJ went down yesterday, if Pops was alive today, there was no way I was going to vote for him WIFOM or not. In a game with such a short deadline I simply fail to believe that the scum would be so backwards in that two of their members would be the competing wagons of the day.

I can think of one or two people that the scum might have wanted to kill over Pops, but they had to kill him.

My change in opinion on you began when I realized that as the Doctor I would have protected you, and pops probably would not have done so (as I would have expected him to protect either himself or me or someone chosen by the dice tags), therefore I expected you to be NKd. Likewise there are a few people that I'm reading nicely pro-Town right now that would also have been acceptable targets.

What is your change of opinion on me? I wasn't aware of your original opinion. Are you saying I'm suspicious because I didn't die over night?

Who knows who hypodoc Pops would have protected. At one point he was offering protections in exchange for not voting him... The scum offed the claimed doc simply because they had to.

How powerful was it?

With enough scummy townies it can be pretty powerful. Pops would have been a perfect target for it last night for example.

I believe this is a similar situation. pops was an attractive kill on paper, but hardly ideal from the perspective of someone who isn't scum.

This statement makes no sense to me.

---

afatchic, suspects?

[sigma]

Vi, seriously, I think I know less now than I did after your last post.

My change in opinion on [Sotty7]...

What exactly is your opinion on Sotty7? that's not clear at all.

pops was an attractive kill on paper, but hardly ideal from the perspective of someone who isn't scum.

Seriously, no idea what point you're trying to make here. you should either explain what pops dying has to do with someone being scummy/town or drop the subject.

[Cruciare]

This still doesn't work for me. Yesterday you believed that Pops was scum and yet others were jumping onto a different wagon. If you truly believed Pops to be scum, wouldn't the competing wagon and those on it show you something? Lets pretend for a minute that Pops was scum and TMJ was town. After the TMJ flip are you really trying to tell me you would have had nothing to go on as far as Pops and his scum buddies?

Sotty, TMJ flipping town says absolutely nothing (or at least very little) about Pops. If Pops had been lynched and flipped scum, then I indeed would have plenty to go on as far as his scumbuddies. But how exactly does TMJ flipping town say anything about Pops? The town is the uninformed majority. TMJ being town may very well mean Pops was also town, in which case the people on the respective wagons would mean little. I did say that I believed Pops was scum, but I am uninformed - I can't be concretely sure about anything. Either I am missing something here, or you are. =/

Interesting, I want to see the full case as soon as you can get round to it. my opinion on DRK is that he was tunneled and in my experience that happens more as town than as scum because scum need to keep their options open a little more. I want to hear his opinions on all this now the day has started. Right now I am leaning town because of the tunneling. But the appeal for a quick hammer on Pops sticks in my nose.

The problem isn't really the tunneling (although that is a problem), it's how he first jumped on the wagon, how he (implicitly) declared it to be the 'one true wagon', how he pretty much ignored TMJ for the most part, and how he behaved after Pops's claim. Again, I'll do a close analysis of his posts and play when weekend comes (basically tomorrow). Yes I am procrastinating, because writing out my thoughts on every action DRK committed yesterday does look to be a lot of work. For now, I'd like DRK to answer Sotty's question about his top suspect.

@DRK

, I especially want to hear your opinion of Afatchic.

In other news, Vi is starting to make less and less sense.

@Vi

, read Sotty's point about how Pops vs TMJ went down yesterday and see if you can still claim the scum should've killed someone else. Remember that after you first voiced suspicion on Y.C., in like the next immediate post, TMJ said "yay" and jumped on Y.C.'s newly-created wagon. You yourself said this just a while back. Do you really think there is the slightest possibility that Pops and TMJ were scumbuddies before Pops flipped? Do you really think anyone might have believed as such if Pops was not nightkilled? I'd like to know if I understand your ultimate point here. Is it that Pops being nightkilled makes you think one of the seemingly 'nicely pro-town' (implied Sotty) people might be scum? Your last sentence is confusing me too.

[imaginality]

Note: I will be V/LA from Saturday to Monday (NZ time - Fri to Sun US time). I will try to post again later tonight before I leave though.

Noted

[Tjoe Min Ja]

just realize I haven't post here...again

You are dead, so there is no longer any reason to post. You are welcome to follow the game, but please do not make any more posts.

*haunt the thread*

good luck to the remaining player...

[Col.Cathart]

just realize I haven't post here...again

*haunt the thread*

good luck to the

remaining player

...

That's certainly interesting...

[Vi]

@Col.Cathart: Before you read too much into that, consider--

just realize I haven't

post

here...again

*

haunt

the thread*

good luck to the remaining player...

Bad English FTL.

-----

I realize this is a bit of a leap, but that's what I think.

Irony.

With how him v TMJ went down yesterday, if Pops was alive today, there was no way I was going to vote for him WIFOM or not. In a game with such a short deadline I simply fail to believe that the scum would be so backwards in that two of their members would be the competing wagons of the day.

Good point. Withdrawing previous few posts for the time being.

What is your change of opinion on me? I wasn't aware of your original opinion. Are you saying I'm suspicious because I didn't die over night?

More so, yes. There's a little more to it, but I'm not going to go onward with that now.

-----

sigma. You're telling me rather authoritatively to drop the subject. But am I suspicious for this line of questioning?

-----

Vi is starting to make less and less sense.

Nothing new there

[sigma]

sigma. You're telling me rather authoritatively to drop the subject. But am I suspicious for this line of questioning?

Not exactly -- I told you to explain your point or drop the subject. It looks like your point is that Sotty looks more suspicious because she didn't die. And yes, it is suspicious because it's beginning to look like a "Sotty's too town to be scum" argument.

[sigma]

EBWOP: it's beginning to look like a "Sotty's too town, she must be scum" argument.

[Vi]

Not the direction I was going with that, although the initial idea that started this thought process was similar.

I'm willing to let the suspicion simmer for now, at any rate.

[Sotty7]

What is your change of opinion on me? I wasn't aware of your original opinion. Are you saying I'm suspicious because I didn't die over night?

More so, yes. There's a little more to it, but I'm not going to go onward with that now.

Yup I love my vote on Vi right now.

[Vi]

Incidentally, Porkens, you were watching something. Are you still watching, is it can be Happy Fun Reveal Time pleez, etc.

[RedCoyote]

Yo, town, I'm really happy for you and I'm going to let you finish, but Beyond had one of the best games of all time.

---

Vote Count 2.1

• Not Voting

  (Porkens - DeathRowKitty - afatchic)
  
  
  DeathRowKitty
  (Cruciare - Col.Cathart)
  
  
  afatchic
  (sigma - jammer)
  
  
  Vi
  (Sotty7)
  
  
  imaginality
  (Vi)
  
  
  Cruciare
  (imaginality)

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.
The current deadline is September 30th.