Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[Talitha]

While I pretty much agree with Sensfan, you're certainly not alone on Scum in asking/expecting a claim at that point Col. Don't worry.

[Talitha]

Regarding Peabody, I still have suspicions that he and CoCo could be scum together. Peabody ignored CoCo completely up until I asked him about it, then started being quite aggressive in questioning CoCo.

I really, really like my Serial Clergyman vote though. Unfortunately I may not get a lot of support in it, because he's nice and posts more than me and appears to be playing as a good townie. My opinion: a wolf in sheep's clothing.

[Talitha]

After mulling it over, I still like Peabody as scum regardless of whether CoCo is scum.

So I'll still vote for lynching Peabody if that's who we can get a majority on.

I want my suspicions of SC on record though.

[Vaya]

After thinking about this this morning, I am going to pull a 180.

unvote

Upon further reflection, while many people are ignoring Peabody, there really isn't anyone trying to stop his lynch, which I would expect to happen if he was scum. Seems unlikely his buddies would leave him to the vultures without hardly a word or a last minute bus attempt. Also, Col.Cathart asking him to claim after saying he doesn't find Peabody scummy made my scumdar go berserk with this poor attempt at rolefishing.

What kind of reaction would you expect if Peabody is scum? With him looking like a likely lynch, I wouldn't expect scum to try too hard to stop his lynch, it would just make them look scummy as well.

[SerialClergyman]

My vote on Talitha is because for this entire game her focus has been primarily on defending herself rather than scumhunting. She's so concerned about defending herself that every time someone attacks her she's in and posting within a small amount of time, which shows she's following the game. I haven't seen many if any posts which read as town this game.

Her vote on me supports the lack of interest in genuinely finding scum, I think. Voting the person calling her out as scum is already a bit meh, but the reasons given seems to be my reluctance to vote peabody. She's prepared to entertain the idea whether or not peabody flips scum (in one scenario I'm bussing, in another scenario I'm avoiding a town lynch). Of course - she's supposedly town, so if I were scum moving off a townie I would have moved onto a different townie. So why she'd think I'd do that as scum is beyond me.

I really, really like my Serial Clergyman vote though. Unfortunately I may not get a lot of support in it, because he's nice and posts more than me and appears to be playing as a good townie. My opinion: a wolf in sheep's clothing.

This is rubbish. It's the too townie fallacy. If someone appears to be playing as a good townie, generally they are a good townie.

Plus she left room for a hammer on Peabody. Talitha continues to look like a good lynch imo.

[mathcam]

I agree that Cathart's role-claim fishing was not particularly scummy.

I agree that there's something slightly fallacious about the too townie argument, but I also think there's something sketchy about the fallacy itself. Given that a majority of the players in any given game will be townies, and that all players are trying to roughly play within a set of standardized norms, any reasonable type of play or playstyle will be more likely to be used by a townie than by scum. That doesn't mean there's nothing to be read from it. Anyway...

Let's just lynch Peabody.

Vote: Peabody.

We need a day 2.

Cam

[SerialClergyman]

mathcam, what do you think peabody will flip?

[mathcam]

I'd say 2/3 chance of town, 1/3 chance of scum. Maybe more like 60/40.

Cam

[SerialClergyman]

Sif Talitha isn't better than 33-40%. At least a coinflip imo.

[Kublai Khan]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

charter

- 1 - Col.Cathart - (L-6)

CoCo

- 2 - SensFan, Peabody - (L-5)

Peabody

- 5 - Cyberbob, Vaya, Hoopla, CoCo, mathcam - (L-2)

SerialClergyman

- 1 - Talitha - (L-6)

Talitha

- 1 - SerialClergyman - (L-6)

Vaya

- 1 - le Chat - (L-6)

Players not voting: charter

[mathcam]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2), so a random player in the game would be about 20/80. A coinflip (i.e. 50/50) would be an

extremely

scummy player -- CoCo is the only one I'd put near those levels, but I see some merit in the arguments in keeping CoCo alive. Tally I don't have much of a read on at all -- I honestly think she's just semi-lurking.

Also, sif?

Cam

[mathcam]

Though, now that I say that, it is a little odd that Tally didn't vote Peabody.

Cam

[SerialClergyman]

sif = as if.

Eliminate the players who you think are probably town and 50/50 gets a lot more likely.

If you had the choice to personally lynch someone right now, forgetting about the rest of the town, who would it be?

[Hoopla]

Though, now that I say that, it is a little odd that Tally didn't vote Peabody.

Cam

She was voting Peabody if I recall correctly, but then bailed at L-1. Peabody is the choice lynch today - the way his wagon has been yo-yoing up and down has been quite odd, so on the chance he isn't scum, we at least get an informative lynch. I've yet to really note any quality insight from Peabody, his only real attempts at scum-hunting has been a weak iso-case on Tally. Lets just get on with it.

For those opposed to this wagon or are off it currently for whatever reason, create another viable option. Charter was never a good lynch and the CoCo wagon isn't going anywhere. I'd think about jumping ship for Tally or Sens, but Peabody is the percentage play here.

[SensFan]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

[SensFan]

My vote on Talitha is because for this entire game her focus has been primarily on defending herself rather than scumhunting. She's so concerned about defending herself that every time someone attacks her she's in and posting within a small amount of time, which shows she's following the game. I haven't seen many if any posts which read as town this game.

Her vote on me supports the lack of interest in genuinely finding scum, I think. Voting the person calling her out as scum is already a bit meh, but the reasons given seems to be my reluctance to vote peabody. She's prepared to entertain the idea whether or not peabody flips scum (in one scenario I'm bussing, in another scenario I'm avoiding a town lynch). Of course - she's supposedly town, so if I were scum moving off a townie I would have moved onto a different townie. So why she'd think I'd do that as scum is beyond me.

I really, really like my Serial Clergyman vote though. Unfortunately I may not get a lot of support in it, because he's nice and posts more than me and appears to be playing as a good townie. My opinion: a wolf in sheep's clothing.

This is rubbish. It's the too townie fallacy. If someone appears to be playing as a good townie, generally they are a good townie.

Plus she left room for a hammer on Peabody. Talitha continues to look like a good lynch imo.

For the record, I agree with Tally. I don't think she's lurking intentionally, and I don't think she's OMGUSing, and I do think she's scumhunting.
Oh, and I think you're scum. And no, its not the "too townie" fallacy, its the "drown out the stuff in walls and people tend to subconsciously place you as town".

[Hoopla]

sif = as if.

Eliminate the players who you think are probably town and 50/50 gets a lot more likely.

If you had the choice to personally lynch someone right now, forgetting about the rest of the town, who would it be?

Everyone automatically starts at 'probably town', though. Even if there is 3 scum, we all start at 25%. I fail to see anything someone could do to lower their chances to anything less than 15% on D1.

And once new confirmed information is in the game (lynches, night-kills), you should immediately reevaluate, as your reads are based on unknown information. The most effective way to scum-hunt is viewing interactions between live players and dead, confirmed players. D1 is always very random despite what anyone says.

[SensFan]

D1 is always very random despite what anyone says.

This. The goal of D1 is not, in my opinion, to lynch Scum.

[Hoopla]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

[SerialClergyman]

For those opposed to this wagon or are off it currently for whatever reason, create another viable option.

Trying. How often do 'inevitable' lynches find scum?

Oh, and I think you're scum. And no, its not the "too townie" fallacy, its the "drown out the stuff in walls and people tend to subconsciously place you as town".

Constantly repeating that I'm scum for the same posting style I display in every game isn't as useful as you seem to think it is. If I was deliberately obsfucating you might have a point, but I think I've been pretty clear with my reads and why. Would you like me to do my normal posts then directly follow it with a Sensfan-post that fits in a text message?

[SensFan]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

No. That's not correct.

Of the ~10 completed

mountanous

2:20 Mini Games, the Town has never won once. Many people feel this is statistically insignificant, due to low sample size, since the set-up is balanced in theory.

[SensFan]

Oh, and I think you're scum. And no, its not the "too townie" fallacy, its the "drown out the stuff in walls and people tend to subconsciously place you as town".

Constantly repeating that I'm scum for the same posting style I display in every game isn't as useful as you seem to think it is. If I was deliberately obsfucating you might have a point, but I think I've been pretty clear with my reads and why. Would you like me to do my normal posts then directly follow it with a Sensfan-post that fits in a text message?

Am I not allowed to give you my reasons for calling you Scum? I'm not going to meta you, since search is down, but I don't particularily care if you do it in all games (and I doubt you do); making massive posts like, that jumbo one that caught my eye, that contain very little information, in between all the fluff, are ridiculously scummy.

[Cyberbob]

Welp, I see I've allowed another bunch of posts pass by (was out all last night and was terribly hungover this morning).

Will post some stuff tomorrow, assuming nobody drops the hammer while I'm asleep.

[Hoopla]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

No. That's not correct.

Of the ~10 completed

mountanous

2:20 Mini Games, the Town has never won once. Many people feel this is statistically insignificant, due to low sample size, since the set-up is balanced in theory.

Since mountainous 2:10 is probably scum-biased (even if it's not), there are plenty of conceivable 2:10 set-ups that could be balanced. Just throw in a powerrole or two. Just because a 2 scum game isn't common, doesn't mean it isn't possible. The fact the first game was only 2 scum, probably means this game is more likely to have 2 scum than any other mini normal chosen at random.

[SensFan]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

No. That's not correct.

Of the ~10 completed

mountanous

2:20 Mini Games, the Town has never won once. Many people feel this is statistically insignificant, due to low sample size, since the set-up is balanced in theory.

Since mountainous 2:10 is probably scum-biased (even if it's not), there are plenty of conceivable 2:10 set-ups that could be balanced. Just throw in a powerrole or two. Just because a 2 scum game isn't common, doesn't mean it isn't possible. The fact the first game was only 2 scum, probably means this game is more likely to have 2 scum than any other mini normal chosen at random.

I'm not convinced the first game had 2 Scum and 10 Town.

Seriously, Town wins a good amount of 3:9 set-ups, so why you guys are assuming this is 2:10 is beyond me, and almost seems suspicious.