Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[Vaya]

/confirm

[Vaya]

Kast, could you explain what bothers you about Gorrad claiming not spy, bomb, or flag? I don't know about spy or bomb, but I agree with him that flag would probably be a stupid claim to make, even if you really were one, for the reason you stated.

I agree that dramonic's hesitance to vote Gorrad seems suspicious.

Vote: dramonic

[Vaya]

Why don't you like early wagons? You didn't have a problem random voting Hoopla without a case against her, so if you're suspicious of Gorrad, I don't see why you don't vote him.

[Vaya]

My point was that you don't seem to have too much of a problem with voting in general. Why not then place your vote on the person you find most suspicious? You don't necessarily need a solid case to place a vote on someone.

[Vaya]

Almaster brings up an interesting point on why the spy, bomb and flag could be the mafia, and it makes me wonder about Gorrad's "it would be silly to claim spy, bomb, or flag" comment. Gorrad, can you explain why you think it would be silly to claim these roles?

[Vaya]

Well, my vision of the bomb was that it was, well, a bomb. And that's a protown role.

I know the bomb is usually a protown role, but there's no reason that it couldn't work as a scum role. It would make sense, the three distinct, numberless pieces being the three Mafia.

[Vaya]

No, I'd suggest their vote would be better off on hiatus until we can see what the devil is that oh so mighty case Sajin has on Gorrad and vote accordingly.

This statement doesn't make any sense to me. What does Sajin's case have to do with a bandwagon on an unrelated person? Why would a wagon be okay after Sajin makes his case? I don't see why just two or three seems to bother you anyway.

[Vaya]

I've played in a game were someone got hammered before 48 hours had passed since the beginning. I'm not big on early wagons. Odds are I won't be voting before a few pages in (and 3 is not enough)

I think you're worrying over nothing. I don't know what happened in your game, but if a bandwagon were to grow that quickly and someone were to hammer, they're almost defiantly scum and would probably be lynched the next day.

@Vaya-
Claiming to not be a particular role narrows the field for scum. This is especially dangerous if/when flavor suggests possibility that scum could be searching for that role. Even without that suggestion, the reasoning is the same as why townies don't generally claim "not cop" or "not doc".

I see, I thought that when you were saying you disliked it, I thought you were implying that you believed it was scummy. That's what I didn't understand.

[Vaya]

Posting to avoid replacement.

To be honest, I haven't been paying too much attention to this game lately. I'll catch up and start posting later.

[Vaya]

dramonic, that's a really weak reason to vote someone, that you suspect that they may not be numbered and you believe that the not-numbers may be scum. I would think that the only way you could think that it makes him lynch-worthy with any certainty is if you knew the mafia were not-numbered.

Confirm Vote:Dramonic

[/b]

[Vaya]

Unvote

@DDD
Why do you think I'm scummy?

[Vaya]

DDD = town

Agreed.

Besides fitting one of the general archetypes I look for you've almost completely iso'ed so far on poor bumbling dramonic. I'm inherently suspicious of people on wagons I don't like.

Fair enough, I was tunneling dramonic. Up until he claimed, I wasn't sure if he was incompetent town or scum. No one else really jumped out at me as suspicious, so I focused on him.

I should go read through this thread a little more closely. I believe dramonic is town now, and I'm not sure who else I should vote for, maybe Hoopla.

@Hoopla
Earlier on in the game, you were agreeing with ortolan about dramonic, but why did you wait until after my vote to place your vote on him? Were you waiting to see if your vote would have any support and if a wagon would form?

As I believe Kast pointed out earlier, I don't like how you seemed to be misinterpreting some things that dramonic was saying.

You've pretty much been tunneling dramonic this whole game. I can't incriminate you too much for this as I've been doing the same, but could you share you're thoughts on other players, particularly who you think may be scum?

[Vaya]

@Hoopla
I could understand why a person might have thought dramonic was town after his claim. I agree with what EB just said. If you feel that he should have been lynched, I think that suggests that you feel he may be scum. But you don't seem too concerned about figuring out if he's scum or proving it, you just seem upset that he wasn't lynched.

[Vaya]

Vote:Sajin

I agree that the way he jumped on and off the wagon seems suspicious, and I prefer this to any other wagon right now.

[Vaya]

@Vaya- That seems like scum jumping on a wagon. Ortolan did the same thing, yet you ignore that/don't comment on it? Why?

Of course I'm going to jump on a wagon at this point, five days away from deadline. I'm not going to place a useless vote on someone who's probably not going to be lynched.

Your jumping on and off the wagon bothers me more for a few reasons.

One, ortolan already stated suspicion of dramonic earlier, your vote kind of just came out of nowhere.

Two, your reasoning for being on the wagon kinda sucks.

I did not put him at L-1 or anywhere close Hoopla. Gorrad still will not answer my questions. Dramonic was rolefishing and I voted him to get him to stop.

You were on the wagon just because you wanted him to stop rolefishing? Not because you thought be may have been scum or wanted him lynched? I don't like how you don't get off the wagon until right after his claim.

[Vaya]

I actually kinda agree with dramonic. A role that only blocks scum kills seems odd to me. To clarify, Synx, does your role pm specifically say you only block scum kills, or does it simply prevent kills in general?

[Vaya]

Honestly, this game feels a bit dead. Synx's claim seems fake for previously mentioned reasons, and I don't feel discussion going much of anywhere else. I don't see any problem with a Synx lynch right now.

Vote: Synx

[Vaya]

I honestly don't see the problem that everyone has with a massclaim, I'd be in favor of it. I don't really see it hurting the town that much, and it may help us narrow down who the remaining scum is.

At the very least, I'm willing to go along with a number claim.

[Vaya]

I have no problem with going first. Are we just claiming numbers or our entire role?

[Vaya]

My number is 10.

[Vaya]

Marshall - 10, vanilla.

[Vaya]

I'm fairly certain that EB is not mafia, given that mafia had a miner and no other bombs have claimed. Of all the players, I'm the most certain that he's town.

I've had a gut town read on ortolan all game. And I don't see ort-scum claiming targets that would make him look so suspicious. I'm inclined to believe that he's telling the truth about his claim and is town.

Not that I particularly think that he's scum, but could someone explain why everyone seems so sure that Gorrad is town? Is it because he bread-crumbed that he was a miner, because it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to believe that the mafia have two miners. Right now, in my mind, he could potentially be the remaining mafia member.

I'm very suspicious of Almaster's cop claim. I think that he may just be trying to set himself up for endgame, as ortolan mentioned. He probably was planning to just go into the next day with a "guilty result" and try to get an easy lynch, and perhaps even get ort to waste his protection on him so that he can kill tonight without worrying about failing.

I have a few reasons that I am skeptical of this claim.
1. I find it really odd that he claims to have investigated Kast, when I don't recall him speaking a word of suspicion against him.
2. As somewhat mentioned before, three investigative roles(traker, jack, cop) seem a tad excessive for the town.

Almaster is my biggest suspect for being the remaining mafia.

However, Hoopla is probably the best lynch for today. If she is a SK, which I do believe is a possibility, then leaving her alive means that two town could be killed tonight, pushing the number of town into the minority and taking the ability to win this game out of our hands. I do not believe that she is the remaining mafia, but I don't want to take the risk of her being a SK and leave her alive another night.

Vote: Hoopla

[Vaya]

Unvote

After having thought it over a bit, I'm not sure if Hoopla is actually the best lynch for today. If she's a SK, then we only have one shot at killing mafia, whether we lynch her now and go for the mafia tomorrow, or go for the mafia today and lose if we mislynch tomorrow. The only benefit I can see in getting her out of the way first and going for the mafia tomorrow is that this would reduce the number of people we to choose from and increase our odds of getting the mafia with one lynch.

On the other hand, if Hoopla is a vig, then we get three shots at killing mafia if we don't lynch her. So the way I see it is if she's a SK, we have little to gain by lynching her now, but if she's a vig then we have more to gain from keeping her alive for now.

My plan regarding Hoopla is this. We lynch who we most suspect to be mafia today. If they flip scum, either we win at that time, or the game keeps going and Hoopla is lynched the following day for being a SK.

If they flip town, however, then we should actually go into endgame basically treating Hoopla as if she's confirmed town if she's not killed and not lynch her. I know that sounds crazy, but if Hoopla isn't town, then we've pretty much lost no matter what, so the best play would be to assume she is. Keep in mind that I'm assuming that Hoopla cannot be mafia because she claimed the other kills and that would mean that the mafia somehow gets two kills a night(and that she choose to kill her partner).

The really great thing about doing this is that it would put the mafia in a tight spot, even if we mislynch today. If they don't kill Hoopla tonight, then they go into endgame with Hoopla who's not being lynched, and EB, who is nearly undeniably not mafia. This means that the mafia is nearly forced to kill our potential-SK for us, without us having to waste a lynch on her.

A few suggestions if we go through with this. ortolan shouldn't protect anyone tonight. I think its best if we let as many people as possible die tonight so we can narrow down who the possible scum are. Having three people alive tomorrow is optimal. For that same reason, Hoopla should kill tonight. And Gorrad, of course, should not defuse EB.

Shoot, I didn't mean for this post to get so big. To summarize, my plan is to:

1. Try our best to lynch mafia today.
1a. If we succeed, lynch Hoopla if the game continues.
2. Tonight, Hoopla kills whoever she thinks is most likely to be scum. Gorrad and ort do nothing.
3. If Hoopla lives through the night, do not lynch her because she is not mafia. If she's a SK, then there's probably nothing town can do anyway.

This seems like a sound idea to me. Someone correct me if I'm missing something.

[Vaya]

Gorrad, stop and think about it for a second. If EB were a scum bomb, then why would scum have a miner? EB is the most likely to be town out of all of us and I really don't like how you're wanting to diffuse him.

[Vaya]

The idea of Hoopla lying about the kills crossed my mind, but it seems very unlikely. Why would she, as mafia, lie to protect someone who may be a SK? I don't see why she would risk it when she wouldn't even know if he was responsible for the kills, and could he been counterclaimed by an actual vig.

[Vaya]

Also Gorrad, are you saying that you are in favor of a Hoopla lynch?

[Vaya]

Vote: Hoopla

Fine, disregard what I said before then. It was just a thought, nothing I feel so strongly about that I feel like arguing about it.

I'm certain that the mafia is either almaster or gorrad, leaning towards almaster.

And of course, we no lynch tomorrow, assuming one death.

[Vaya]

What Gorrad points out here is a nice observation. Between that, and the cop claim which doesn't make sense considering how much investigative power that would mean the town would have, if I wasn't sure enough before, I'm certain now that Almaster is scum.

Vote: AlmasterGM

About no lynching, I agree with Gorrad's position 100%. All no lynching would do for us is get our obvious townie killed off. It wouldn't increase our odds of lynching scum any because EB's not even a candidate for being lynched. So I encourage EB to hammer today, assuming that he agrees Almaster is scum.

@Almaster
You are right that we shouldn't lynch based off of a pattern we can't prove alone, but your not cleared by any means because it would be too obvious or we can't prove it either.

You're wrong that an early massclaim would break the game though because we wouldn't have any way of knowing that all scum pieces counterpart town pieces. Also, if we did somehow eventually figure it out, we wouldn't know which of the duplicate pieces were the scum.

Really, the idea that scum pieces counterpart town pieces makes plenty of sense to me. And it's already been shown to be the case once already, twice if you want to assume Gorrad is town, which I now believe is the case. And no town pieces have been shown to be duplicates of other town pieces either.

[Vaya]

Are you sure you would have been told if you were?

[Vaya]

Vote: AlmasterGM

I don't see why Vaya hasn't taken heavy criticism for jumping around a lot and lurking.

Show how I've been jumping around a lot this game. Yes, I've been lurky, but this has pretty much been so in all of my games lately and has nothing to do with my alignment here.

Also, as EB pointed out, if you felt my play was so scummy, why didn't you speak any suspicion of me(or Hoopla for that matter) until after we were being talked about as possible lynches?

[Vaya]

Good Game everyone. This was actually my first game as scum and the first game I've won on this site.

And for the record, I was sincere when I said that my lurking had basically nothing to do my alignment. Its a recent bad habit that's been happening with me lately in all of my games that I need to break. I wasn't doing it purposely because I was scum.

Also, had Gorrad not defused EB, the town would have almost certainly won despite mislynching in LYLO, since the town won if everyone died, whereas the mafia had to have a member left alive. I did this because of the possibility of the game coming down to a night with the PGO and one mafia left. If the mafia killed the PGO, both would die, and everyone would be dead. Tie games are for suckers and I thought the balance slightly favored scum, so they had the extra burden of keeping a member alive.

This would actually have been the case? I was under the impression that scum would automatically endgame in this situation without even having to target or blowing up the bomb. It your rules of course though so I guess I was lucky that Gorrad diffused him.

[Vaya]

I also just realized that I was basically the mafia godfather, completely immune to investigations(aside from the tracker) and kills. I was under the impression that I was a simple goon this whole game.

[Vaya]

I was also extremely annoyed the last two days when the town decided that outguessing the mod was a sound scum hunting technique. I know I was dead like four days before that, but I thought I'd made it clear that trying to pick apart the setup like that was going to fail and fail hard.

I agree. I would never have done it if I was town.