/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

Incognito · Post Post #325 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 9:37 am

Vote Count #11 of Day 1

hohum (2) <-~ MiteyMouse, Sajin
qwints (1) <-~ Nikanor
Sajin (1) <-~ hohum
MiteyMouse (1) <-~ Zorblag
Papa Zito (1) <-~ qwints
Cojin (1) <-~ Papa Zito

Not voting (2) <-~ Cojin, Scien

With 9 living, 5 will do it.

Deadline wrote:
Friday, August 21st at 9 P.M. EDT.

Zorblag · Post Post #326 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 9:38 am

There be a couple things Troll thinks no have been communicated clearly here. Does Sajin think that Troll be voting for MiteyMouse exclusively because she be unlikely to be the chosen? If that be the case him be wrong does think that MiteyMouse be as likely to be scum as anyone else at this time. That Troll thinks MiteyMouse be unlikely to be a chosen be an additional reason to vote but it no be the primary one.

Troll no be trying to convince Sajin to join the MiteyMouse wagon. Troll thought Troll just got done explaining Troll's position on that sort of thing to hohum. Sajin should be voting for the one him thinks be the most likely to help the town with their lynch right now.

It also be the case that it be easiest to avoid lynching the chosen and hardest to hit scum on day one when there be so many vanilla townies about today. Ignoring the easier condition to exclusively pursue the harder one be silly both because there no be any reason not to take both into consideration and because it be doing things the hard way.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #327 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:19 am

I am ignoring the less likely one and pursuing the more likely win condition in my opinion.

Easier and harder does not translate well for me.

Zorblag · Post Post #328 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:24 am

OK, the first day do you be more likely to hit scum or more likely to avoid the chosen? Both further your attempts to win the game if you be town.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #329 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:40 am

Did you read the math at all?

Zorblag · Post Post #330 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:43 am

Troll did. If we lynch today do we be more likely to lynch a scum or not lynch a chosen?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #331 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:59 am

Really, the issue that Troll be defending here (for reasons which Troll no understands as Troll would think that it be obvious and not need defense) be that not lynching a chosen and lynching scum no be mutually exclusive and the scum's ideal play has nothing to do with the town having to pick one win condition or the other to pursue (which be a problem with your math; Troll can go over specifics if you like.) Troll be saying that we should attempt both at once rather than focusing on one exclusively. Troll no be quite sure what your qualm with that be.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #332 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:00 am

Equal chances. But the advantages of lynching a scum outweigh the hazards of lynching a chosen.

Sajin · Post Post #333 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:01 am

Zorblag wrote:Really, the issue that Troll be defending here (for reasons which Troll no understands as Troll would think that it be obvious and not need defense) be that not lynching a chosen and lynching scum no be mutually exclusive and the scum's ideal play has nothing to do with the town having to pick one win condition or the other to pursue (which be a problem with your math; Troll can go over specifics if you like.) Troll be saying that we should attempt both at once rather than focusing on one exclusively. Troll no be quite sure what your qualm with that be.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Because I see this line of reasoning an excellent scum excuse for not pursuing someone they think is obvious scum.

Zorblag · Post Post #334 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:01 am

If we were to go for a random lynch we have a 2/9 chance of hitting scum today and a 7/9 chance of not hitting a chosen today. Them no be equal at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #335 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:02 am

Who does Troll not be pursuing that Troll thinks be obviously scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #336 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:04 am

Your comparing the wrong odds. Reguardless, lets bring this back to specifics:

Another angle- If Hohum and I were both town do you think that scum would be on either or bandwagon?

Zorblag · Post Post #337 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:09 am

If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be scum then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon. If both be town and one be the chosen then there do be reason to think that there would be an above average chance of scum being on that wagon.

As to the odds Troll be comparing Troll no be sure what you have in mind but Troll will put this another way. If we lynch scum today then we definitely avoid lynching a chosen. If we lynch a non-chosen today we might or might not lynch scum. We be more likely to avoid lynching a chosen today than we be to lynch scum based on that alone. Troll invites you to explain which odds you have in mind where them be equal but Troll no sees it all at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #338 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:11 am

EBWOP:

Zorblag wrote:If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be
scum
then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon.

Should be:

If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be

chosen

then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #339 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:28 am

Troll- You seem to think Hohum and I are town/scum or chosen/scum.

If we are town/scum- Why not go through with picking out of us with your method?

If we are chosen/scum- If we hit the chosen first we get the scum the next day for a 1 scum of 5,

which is better than the odds of winning by the chosen method anyways

, or more optimally we nail a scum, and we enjoy the 1/7 scum odds with the alternate win condition still intact.

Essentially, unless you think hohum and I are both town then there is no reason to not be on one of our bandwagons, Troll.

Zorblag · Post Post #340 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:34 am

Why would Troll think that one of the two of Sajin and hohum have to be scum? What has Troll ever said to give this impression? You each be one of vanilla townie, chosen and scum but that no be any sort of revelation at all. Sure you think that eachother be scum but Troll sees pairs of townies wrongly suspect eachother fairly often.

If Troll was somehow forced to vote for one of the two of you it would be hohum but Troll thinks that MiteyMouse has a greater chance of being scum than hohum does.

Did you think that Troll thought hohum was likely to be scum but no was voting for him just because MiteyMouse was less likely to be a chosen? If so, why would you think that based on what Troll has said?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Sajin · Post Post #341 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:51 am

Zorblag wrote:If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be scum then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon. If both be town and one be the chosen then there do be reason to think that there would be an above average chance of scum being on that wagon.

Because of what you said about miteymouse and you rational (where you summed up everybody in one post) and the above quote. Correct me if I am wrong.

Zorblag · Post Post #342 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:58 am

The above quote (which Troll fixed slightly though not in a way which changes anything here) does nothing that implies Troll thinks that Sajin and hohum be likely to be town together or not. It was an answer to a question Sajin asked. Troll's post that went over everyone listed people's chances of being scum or chosen individually (for some, though not all.) The only connection Troll particularly recalls making there was that hohum was unlikely to be scum with qwints. Troll's stance on MiteyMouse be that she be somewhat scummy and unlikely to be the chosen.

None of those should imply that Troll thinks that one of Sajin or hohum be scum. Troll thinks that it be possible that hohum be scum regardless of Sajin's alignment. Troll thinks that Sajin be unlikely to be scum regardless of hohum's alignment.

Troll no be sure exactly how you got this idea from what Troll has been saying but apparently you be wrong about Troll's views here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Scien · Post Post #343 (ISO) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 7:21 pm

I've been having issues getting on to tell you this, but I am currently out of state until around Monday.

I will be hit or miss on the internet... but will need a sec to catch up.

Sorry about this, and sorry I could not get on sooner to let you guys know.

Incognito · Post Post #344 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:35 am

Nikanor has been prodded.

Zorblag · Post Post #345 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:40 am

So we now be one week into the game. There be one week left till deadline for the first day. Here be some problems that Troll sees:

Cojin: Him has given no readings other than neutral on any players in the game. Him no has voted despite saying that we should be looking at voting patterns this game multiple times. Troll be inclined to put Cojin in the no useful participation category at this time.

MiteyMouse: The reasons that Troll sees from MiteyMouse for suspecting people be talking too little compared to expectations or talking too much and being aggressive towards her. She says that she be trying to use a process of elimination strategy to find scum but thus far she seems to have eliminated just Sajin and herself. There be more participation than Cojin here but Troll thus far sees very little that actually be useful or insightful.

Scien: Once again, there be more information here but Scien has thus far voted only for those that him has gotten into disagreements with and no seems to have become particularly suspicious of anyone else. Him had been talking a fair amount and Troll likes his ideas about what we should be doing in terms of strategy for this game but him needs to get much more involved with the details about players. Troll knows that him be V/LA; there be nothing that can be done about that but Troll dislikes how little of substance we have from him.

Nikanor: The start of the game from Nikanor was pretty good Troll thought but him has really faded since then. Troll will be asking for a prod for him at the end of this post but him needs to show up again and get back into this thing.

The first question Troll asked everyone was what we should do if someone hadn't done any helpful participation. Most of the answers seemed to be fairly tentative but Troll said that Troll was inclined to take a hard stance about it. Troll stands by that. Lurking in a game with short deadlines and where the scum can day talk be very anti-town. It be the duty of everyone in the town to get involved here and try to figure out who be the scum at the very least. Troll thinks we should also be looking at who might be the chosen but if people just scum hunt for now Troll will take that.

Troll will keep Troll's vote on MiteyMosue but Troll would be very willing to switch to Cojin at this time. Troll would really like to see everyone that Troll mentioned at the start weigh in with some observations about the game and suspicions with some sort of reasonable backing. Troll would rather see this sooner than later.

Mod: Can you please prod Nikanor?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #346 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:41 am

Ah, never mind the prod request. Troll was a bit too slow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Nikanor · Post Post #347 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 2:38 pm

A thing to note about lurker-Cojin: He wasn't like this at all in the last game I was in with him. He posted quite a bit more than this, which may have contributed to his lynch as scum. Maybe he's trying something different this game? /WIFOM

A note about lurkers in general, however hypocritical it may be: In a game where scum can day-talk, there is less incentive for scum to post in-thread, since they can just spend the day talking to their partner instead. The biggest offender of this has been Cojin, who only posts when prompted.

At the moment, I feel that qwints has diminished in scumminess enough to warrant an unvote.
Cojin, however, has done nothing to assuage my suspicions against him. In fact, his lurking has only served to inflame my scumsensors.

Unvote. Vote: Cojin.

Going to look into a couple things and post back in a jiffy.

P.S. Troll is right about math, obv.

Nikanor · Post Post #348 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 2:52 pm

My search turned up fruitless. I was looking to see if anyone had blatantly said the second town win condition before MiteyMouse 'forgot' about it. I found some hints at it, but nothing too obvious.
That's not to say I don't think it is scummy. I find it quite difficult to believe someone would not read their win conditions before playing the game. I've got her listed as my number two suspect right now, but that can change if she acts more scumlike or if Cojin steps up his act.

Papa Zito · Post Post #349 (ISO) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 3:29 pm

Nikanor wrote:My search turned up fruitless. I was looking to see if anyone had blatantly said the second town win condition before MiteyMouse 'forgot' about it. I found some hints at it, but nothing too obvious.
That's not to say I don't think it is scummy. I find it quite difficult to believe someone would not read their win conditions before playing the game. I've got her listed as my number two suspect right now, but that can change if she acts more scumlike or if Cojin steps up his act.

The major issue with Mitey is that this isn't the first time she's played this style of game.

Troll, your vote on Cojin would be quite welcome.