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[MichelSableheart]

You are assuming a scum team made up of geniuses with IQs above 180, with perfect timing.

It's true that I'm assuming scum who can think things through and know what they're doing. One assumption I missed. Any more?

Have you ever been scum?

Yes, but never in large theme games. See my wiki for details.

---

Thank you. One less thing to worry about. So. Who is the biggest scumbag between Yosarian and Adel/MSH? What do you think of vollkan?

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players? Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt? Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

I'm seeing a bit of hypocrisy here.

[OhGodMyLife]

Responding to prod, I was out of town for the weekend, just got home. I'll catch up tonight.

[Ren Hoek]

Thank you. One less thing to worry about. So. Who is the biggest scumbag between Yosarian and Adel/MSH? What do you think of vollkan?

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players? Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt? Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

I'm seeing a bit of hypocrisy here.

Subtle difference. I'm asking one player, not a bunch of lurkers a blanket, loaded question.

Now MSH, what you do you think of this Adelscum post, from another game?

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 10#1673210

could all players please answer the following questions:

1. what games (with links) have you finished in the last 6 months?
2. what are your on-going games?
3. what is your personal definition of lurking?
4. of the players in this game, which players have you played with in the last six months?
5. what other names do you play mafia under here?
6. what other sites have you played at within the last six months?

[scotmany12]

Finally, I would really appreciate it if those who claim there are too many assumptions in my case against Ren could point them all out to me. Personally, I am unaware of the presence of any unfounded assumptions, and I do not belief I made (m)any assumptions in my actual case.

You assume your percentages are exactly what the scum believed.
You assume the scum would be willing to sacrifice a scum member to get rid of me.
You assume the scum went through all those calculations before submitting their kill.
You assume the mafia could not actually think that I might have not been busdriven.
There's probably more too.

[curiouskarmadog]

(got a busy week, look for a post on Friday)

in reference to this game....I dont care if someone puts up the QT thread...lack the time at the moment.

[Korts]

(3) SensFan- Budja, Goatrevolt, Ojanen

(1) Yosarian2- OhGodMyLife
(1) MichelSableheart- curiouskarmadog
(1) Ren Hoek- MichelSableheart
(1) curiouskarmadog- Yosarian2

not voting:

vollkan, SensFan, scotmany12, Ren Hoek

6 to lynch

Deadline is 6 PM EST August 22.

Ojanen is 10 hours from being prodded.

[Ojanen]

@MichelSableheart: Do you find Sensfan's behaviour regarding falsely referencing back to your quicktopic suspicious?

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

I'll comment on the last pages more thoroughly in a few hours.

[Ren Hoek]

[scotmany12]

@Volkan: We should start using the management quicktopic.

I understand the suspicion of Volkan, but I just don't think he is scum. Call it gut I guess. He just isn't giving me scummy vibes.

Also, there is something I wanted to respond too in Yos/Goat QT. Yos, you said that we went from everyone thinking Adel is town, to everyone thinking he is scum. That's just wrong. I not once considered adel town. While his plan was quite helpful, I was never convinced that he was town. The way he stayed back during almost every discussion during day 1 never sat well with me, and then him calling me scum out of nowhere with no basis was a bit ridiculous.

[Yosarian2]

@ Yos, you said that we went from everyone thinking Adel is town, to everyone thinking he is scum. That's just wrong. I not once considered adel town. While his plan was quite helpful, I was never convinced that he was town.

(nods) Yeah, you mentioned that, and I don't have a problem with you keeping some of your cards close to your chest as far as your own suspicions lie, becuase it may make it harder for scum to guess who you will be giving power roles to. Especally since you're nearly confirmed now, that's probably a smart way for you to play.

I will say that, in thread, it seemed like Adel was the person most trusted by the town in general for much of the game, then suddenly he became one of the top suspects, and I don't really understand why.

I kind of see what you mean about Adel laying back on day 1, but it seemed more like an information gathering stratagy then anything with anti-town motives to me.

[Ojanen]

Yos: any thoughts based on the accounting team quicktopic, especially regarding your thoughts on Adel case initiator/reasoning behind vote on ckd?

[Yosarian2]

Well, I'm not buying OGML's argument that there "must not be scum in the accounting group because the scum don't know what's going on here", especally since that seems to be based on him assuming I'm scum, hah.

Anyway, CKD's whole argument there that started the case on Adel seemed to be about the FL quicklynch, right? Mmm....I donno, it made sense to me at the time, and I'm having trouble seeing that as a scum gabit on Adel's part.

I also don't see any sign of this "case" against me that Ren hid behind when he was trying to defend his logic-less attack on me:

And concerning yourself, Yosarian, the case has been made by others, mostly in the QT, and you're in for a treat when it becomes public.

Care to explain yourself, Ren? Was there some other part of the quicktopic you haven't posted yet, or were you lying about that?

Also, if he was lying, I'm really disturbued that other people in the quicktopic didn't call him out on it either here or in thread, especally CKD.

[Ren Hoek]

It was based on 66, and 72, and as you see, in 88, I noticed that you looked excessively nervous at the prospect of an upcoming case against you, which, I admit, I overstated.

It looks as if you're still preoccupied by this still pending case against you, since you still remembered it and looked for it in the QT.

If you're scum, I believe that this is news to you, and would semi-confirm vollkan for at least not leaking information from the accounting QT to the scum QT.

I'm trying to figure out if you are this nervous because you're scum, or because you're town.

[Yosarian2]

Eh...I wasn't nervous, I was trying to get you to actually say what you thought rather then hide behind and argument someone else made somewhere else. I'd always rather pick a fight in thread and get some information out of it then just sit back and take potshots from the sidelines.

In any case, I'm really wondering why no one else pointed out your statement was basically untrue. Especally CKD, who's been quite active both in this thread and that one since then. Especally considering my earlier concerns that if you are town he may have been trying to buddy up to you, I find that problematic. CKD?

[Ren Hoek]

Especally considering my earlier concerns that if you are town he may have been trying to buddy up to you, I find that problematic. CKD?

There was a mention of an upcoming case, to precede a vote for either Adel/MSH or yourself, by OGML, who was emphatic in his language.

You think that I'm worth buddying to more than you are? Yet they OGML/CKD are attacking you.

Since you've been thinking I'm scum for the better part of the game, I'm a little more than surprised to learn that you see me as a townie that scum buddies up to. You'd have to be pretty sure I'm town to make that assertion. It's all very unsettling.

[MichelSableheart]

Now MSH, what you do you think of this Adelscum post, from another game?

If I have to go on that post alone, Adel places a lot of emphasis on meta, sees potential differences in opinion on the topic of lurking, and considers these two topics excellent to start the discussion with.

---

You assume your percentages are exactly what the scum believed.

You assume the scum went through all those calculations before submitting their kill.

Personally, I believe I made a slightly different assumption: that the scum had a rough idea of how likely each scenario was, and that this rough idea resembled my percentages enough to make them useable. See the following quote from my original post:

I'll use these percentages as an estimation of the chance that each target was chosen. I believe they roughly match the chances in Adel's plan [SNIP] at least enough to get an acceptable estimate of what the scum could expect to happen

You assume the scum would be willing to sacrifice a scum member to get rid of me.

Again, I want to reword slightly. I assume the scum is willing to lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway (which, I must admit, was another one of my assumpions, and probably the most dubious one) to get rid of you.

You assume the mafia could not actually think that I might have not been busdriven.

I don't think I made that assumption. Each of my calculations took into account a 25% chance of you dying. In other words, I estimated that mafia could expect you not to be the busdrivers target roughly 1 out of 4 times.

---
Currently, I count four assumptions:

1. Scum know what they're doing, and can think things through.
   
2. When they try to kill Scotmany, different scenario's can happen. Scum are aware of this, and have a rough idea of how likely each scenario is. This rough idea is similar to the percentages I've given.
   
3. Ren Hoek would almost certainly be lynched during day 1.
   
4. Scum is willing to immediately lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway if this means that the Creative Director dies.

I have given arguments for all of these assumptions except #1, which I assumed was obvious. I have only seen counterarguments for assumption #3.

@those who claim I make too many assumptions: which of my assumptions do you disagree with, and why?

Apologies for pressing this point. But in a logical argument, if the logic is correct, and you agree with the assumptions made, then the conclusion will automatically follow, no matter how many assumptions were made. And if you don't agree with the assumptions made, you should be able to point out why you disagree with them, rather then just write them of as unfounded.

---

@MichelSableheart: Do you find Sensfan's behaviour regarding falsely referencing back to your quicktopic suspicious?

Looking back at the situation, no not really. In fact, I find myself disagreeing with Adel's assesment of the situation in the quicktopic.

Sensfan voted FL on monday, july 13th. Then the Ren Hoek bandwagon got to speed. On wednesday july 15th, he made two short posts against Ren Hoek. On thursday july 16th, Adel asked a direct question to Faerielord, to which Sensfan responded in the quicktopic (quicktopic post 15). Then, from saturday july 18th onward, he was discussing his case against FL with Ren Hoek.

He claimed he didn't drop it in thread, and definately did not drop it in the quicktopic. From the moment he posted his suspicions about FL till the moment he claimed not to have dropped it in the quicktopic, he made 4 posts in the quicktopic. 3 of these posts had to do with FaerieLord in some way or another, the other was a doublepost. He has not been saying continuously, explicitly, that he suspected FaerieLord, but I can understand why he claimed not to have dropped the matter in the quicktopic.

---
Thanks for posting the quicktopic.

Looking at the beginning of the Adel and Yos wagons, I'm mainly getting stronger confirmed in my suspicions against Ren. The wagon there builds up too much speed too fast for me to believe there is no scum there.

Ren Hoek showed agressiveness towards Adel during day 1, but doesn't comment in the quicktopic till CKD and OGML comment along the same lines. Then he is completely in favour of an Adel lynch. As far as I can see, he is the main reason that suspicions become a "let's lynch one of them now" feeling, while bringing very little of an actual case.

OGML promisses to make a case against adel in the Quicktopic, then does so in the main thread. He has his suspicions, he voices them. Looks good to me.

CKD isn't very loud with his suspicions in the beginning, rather he builds up steam slowly as the others comment. From the Quicktopic, I'm getting the feeling that ongoing discussion reinforces lingering feelings. If that is the case, then he is likely town too.

---
The most important thing in there, in my opinion, is the fact that the "Adel is attacking confirmed townies" argument has been brought up by Ren Hoek. I believe it is the worst argument out of all arguments given. The fact that it was first mentioned by a player who would have a serious agenda pushing the thought that he was confirmed town does not make it better at all.

Why is it the worst argument? Because at the beginning of day 2, Adel was not attacking Ren Hoek. He did not push for a Ren lynch, in fact, he explicitly stated that scot being the target of the scumkill made him change his mind on lynching Ren. That Adel did not dismiss the scummy feelings Ren gave him and remembered the possibility that Goat and Ren were scum together is not attacking confirmed townies, it is remaining open minded about players who are not completely confirmed.

[Ren Hoek]

Now MSH, what you do you think of this Adelscum post, from another game?

If I have to go on that post alone, Adel places a lot of emphasis on meta, sees potential differences in opinion on the topic of lurking, and considers these two topics excellent to start the discussion with.

Sure, but he was scum in that game. Know whaddamean? He did something similar here, asking a bunch of lurkers to voice their opinions on Adel's leading suspects.

[Ren Hoek]

Hey MSH.

Change the variable of my alignment in your equations for the constant "townie."

Who is now scum and why?

[Yosarian2]

Since you've been thinking I'm scum for the better part of the game, I'm a little more than surprised to learn that you see me as a townie that scum buddies up to. You'd have to be pretty sure I'm town to make that assertion. It's all very unsettling.

The problem is, I can think of two good reason he might do that as scum; either you're his scumbuddy and he dosn't want to draw attention to you, or you're town and he's trying to buddy up to you. I can't think of any reason he would do that as town.

Anyway, I've been accusing him for quite a while of being a scum who was trying to buddy up to OGML and, if you are town, to you. I've been pretty clear about that...

[scotmany12]

1. Scum know what they're doing, and can think things through.

Your theory isn't simply thinking things through. You believe the scum went through every single scenario, which given the amount of scenarios possible, is unlikely.

[*]When they try to kill Scotmany, different scenario's can happen. Scum are aware of this, and have a rough idea of how likely each scenario is. This rough idea is similar to the percentages I've given.

Once again, you assume what the scum believe is similar to your percentages. There is absolutely no proof to that, and scum could have believed something totally different.

[*]Ren Hoek would almost certainly be lynched during day 1.
[*]Scum is willing to immediately lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway if this means that the Creative Director dies.[/list]

The fourth one relies solely on the third one, which there is no proof too. Ren's self vote could have changed everything, I was personally getting caught up at that point, and other people were trying to pursue other lynches. While this isn't necessarily a bad assumption, a lot lies on it, and a lot lies on the scum believing that Ren was about to be lynched.

[Ren Hoek]

The problem is, I can think of two good reason he might do that as scum; either you're his scumbuddy and he dosn't want to draw attention to you, or you're town and he's trying to buddy up to you. I can't think of any reason he would do that as town.

I do know that there are TWO good reasons, if he's scum, for him to do that.

But that's not the interesting bit.

The interesting bit is that you only considered ONE, namely, the situation where I'm town and he's trying to buddy up to me. You didn't bring up that we may be scumbuddies. Given your game-long conviction that I should be scum, and that CKD should be scum, I hope you understand why I'm perplexed that you brought up the reason that goes against your earlier stated views on my alignment.

Is this the kind of error you'd be more likely to do as town, or as scum, and why?

[Yosarian2]

It wasn't an error. I think that someone pushing the Adel wagon is almost certanly scum. And I think the most likely scenerio right now is that CKD is scum, and that you and OGML are both town, and that he's buddying up to and using the two of you.

It's certanly possible I'm wrong about that; you could be scum and he could be town, or you could both be scum together (although that would be pretty blatent, with the way he's been openly working with you all day, and I never really thought it was all that likely.) But, no, it wasn't an accident or an error that I accused him of being scum buddying up to you; I really think that's the most likely scenerio at this time, and I have for most of the day; i actually thought that was pretty clear in my posts, both in thread and in my conversation with goat that was posted.

[Ren Hoek]

It wasn't an error. I think that someone pushing the Adel wagon is almost certanly scum. And I think the most likely scenerio right now is that CKD is scum, and that you and OGML are both town, and that he's buddying up to and using the two of you.

I don't understand this statement since I've announced my willingness to lynch Adel/MSH.

It's certanly possible I'm wrong about that; you could be scum and he could be town, or you could both be scum together (although that would be pretty blatent, with the way he's been openly working with you all day, and I never really thought it was all that likely.) But, no, it wasn't an accident or an error that I accused him of being scum buddying up to you; I really think that's the most likely scenerio at this time, and I have for most of the day; i actually thought that was pretty clear in my posts, both in thread and in my conversation with goat that was posted.

So now you don't think I'm so scum because you think CKD is more scum and buddying up to me?

[Yosarian2]

So now you don't think I'm so scum because you think CKD is more scum and buddying up to me?

Actually, for most of the day, I've considered the chances of you being scum significnalty lower then I did yesterday, partly because of the attempt to kill scot while you were at lynch -1. I believe I've said more then once today that I wouldn't be willing to lynch you today.

[Korts]

bumping vote count to top of page